Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology was released on January 22. While it might be a bit too early to start evaluating his selections with full confidence, there are definitely some interesting predictions he has made about the current state of things in the ACC. For one thing, he has five teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament from the conference in this mock bracket:  Duke (overall #1 seed), NC State (#3 seed), Miami (#5 seed), North Carolina (#9 seed), and Maryland (#11 seed).

There might only be 3 ACC locks for the NCAA Tournament after the regular season.

• Duke (16-2, 3-2):  If the season ended today, it would be tough to dispute Duke’s credentials as a #1 seed, considering that they are ranked #1 in the overall polls and #1 in the RPI, but without Ryan Kelly (for a still undetermined length of time), the Blue Devils are not the same team that defeated Louisville, Ohio State, and Minnesota. Regardless, barring a major collapse in the ACC (losing more than four games overall), it would be hard to see Duke losing its spot on at least one of the four top lines, though it would obviously prefer not to drop too many more so that it would be placed in the East Region (Washington, DC) instead of being shipped out to Los Angeles.
• NC State (15-4, 4-2):  NC State has probably fallen off the #3-seed line with its shocking loss to Wake Forest earlier this week. While NC State is currently ranked #16 in the RPI, they are likely to drop more in the near future (RPIForecast has the Wolfpack projected to finish #25 in the RPI). NC State’s porous defense and generally mediocre play in the ACC (aside from the Duke game), including a loss to Maryland and barely scraping by non-Tournament contenders Clemson and Boston College, finally came back to bite them in losing to a Wake Forest team that was just 9-8 prior to that game. While NC State is certainly a lock to make the NCAAs at this point, unless they can beat Duke in Cameron and/or beat Miami and have success against UNC, it is highly unlikely they will stay quite so high. If they finish 11-7 in the ACC, as projected by both Pomeroy and Sagarin, a #5 or #6 seed seems more likely, considering that NC State’s best non-conference wins are against UConn and Stanford.

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It may be tempting to add caveats, but make no mistake: The Miami Hurricanes really are the best team in the ACC. Sure, they haven’t played North Carolina State yet and, yes, Ryan Kelly makes Duke a significantly better team. There is a strong chance that both of these teams could beat the Hurricanes when they face them on their home courts later this season. On the other hand, Miami took the number one team in the country and administered the third biggest thrashing that the highest-ranked team in the country has suffered in the history of college basketball. Kelly and home court are important factors, but does anyone think that those two things are honestly worth 27 points?  If so, I’d like to present you with this honorary plaque commemorating your dedication to the Ryan Kelly Fan Club.

Miami Fans RTC’d the Blue Devils After Last Night’s Destruction (credit: WaPo)

The caveats don’t stand up against scrutiny. Miami sits at the top of the standings without a single conference loss because of the Hurricanes’ incredible commitment to defense under Jim Larranaga. Outside of Rasheed Sulaimon, the entire complement of Duke’s normally excellent guard corps combined to shoot 1-of-29 from the field. This wasn’t just luck on Miami’s part (though it helped).  Before last night, Miami had the eighth best defensive efficiency mark in the country, achieved by consistently excellent interior defense, limiting three-point attempts, contesting the ones that were put up, and a deliberate and marked effort to avoid putting their opponents at the line. With this team, Larranaga has opted for a cautious and conservative style of play: Miami mostly eschews the offensive glass in order to set its defense and limit transition buckets. They don’t try to force turnovers by risking fouling. The defense gets set, chases shooters off the three-point line, and funnels the offense to shot blockers who force opponents to attempt contested mid-range buckets (the worst shot in basketball). The defensive concept is simple: Make your opponent take difficult shots and then focus (as a team) on securing the defensive rebound. It’s how the San Antonio Spurs won four NBA championships and Larranaga has demonstrated that these concepts work well in college basketball as well. The Miami Hurricanes simply play phenomenal team defense and that goes a long way towards winning games.

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Right on the heels of Jeff Goodman breaking the news that the NCAA was nearly ready to release Miami‘s notice of allegations and that Frank Haith would be slapped with unethical content and failure to promote an atmosphere of compliance, the NCAA held a press conference that changed everything.

Haith went from dead man walking–unethical conduct was the same verdict that slapped Bruce Pearl before giving him a multiyear show-cause penalty–to potentially getting away totally unscathed when Mark Emmert announced that the NCAA is conducting an external review of its enforcement program. But this won’t stop with Miami. This has the potential to change NCAA enforcement as we know it.

Frank Haith doesn’t have to worry about a show-cause from NCAA–for now.

The problem facing the NCAA is that investigators “gained information for the investigation that would not have been accessible otherwise.” Now, alone that sounds like a minor deal, but in the press conference things became more clear: the NCAA worked with Nevin Shapiro’s lawyer to collect evidence against Miami’s athletic department. My (and John Infante’s) guess is the enforcement staff used the bankruptcy case as a way to get relevant parties to talk about the scandal under oath. To add insult to injury, the NCAA noticed the rule-bending when Shapiro’s attorney sent it a bill for his help. So for those of you keeping score at home, the NCAA effectively hired a lawyer to question people under oath for an investigation. Not surprisingly, that’s not OK.

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1. NCAA: It’s safe to say Miami had its best day in a long time yesterday. Not only did the Hurricanes poleaxe Duke in arguably their best performance ever (relatedly, see the agony and the ecstasy), moving them to the top of the ACC leaderboard with two games over the nearest team in the loss column, but the NCAA announced major violations were commited by the NCAA in the investigation into Miami. So Miami moved into odds on favorite to win the regular season title, and potentially thwarted the NCAA thanks to overeager investigators? That’s a hell of a day. More on the NCAA situation later.
2. Winston-Salem Journal: Speaking of schools riding high, it’s safe to say Wake Forest is still reveling in its win over 18th-ranked NC State. This might be the first article I’ve ever read praising Jeff Bzdelik since he arrived in Winston-Salem. Dan Collins describes a Wake Forest team that “was younger and deeper,” but didn’t stop there: “you’d see at team that was tougher and far more together [than NC State].” The Demon Deacons are a foul call away from being 4-2 in conference play, tied with Duke, North Carolina and NC State in the loss column. I’m not going to go as far as to say Bzdelik deserves an extension, but the man does deserve credit for his team’s success in the early goings.
3. Backing the Pack: NC State‘s defense is heavily reliant on not committing (or being called for, depending on who’s talking) fouls. The outliers are UNC-Asheville and Stanford. The first can be filed away under “Puerto Rico hangover”, but the second is less easily explained. Fouls are only a symptom though. Watching the second half at the Joel, showed a lack of effort on defense: NC State tried to play defense with its hands and got whistled for it. Mark Gottfried needs to figure out what ails his team motivation-wise ASAP. The Wolfpack aren’t in any danger–yet–of missing the NCAA tournament, but they do have a big game coming up Saturday against North Carolina.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State’s coaching staff admitted that they’re just as confused as the rest of us about the Seminoles’ inconsistent play. Just in the game I saw at Clemson they dominated the first half (they looked unbeatable for the first 15 minutes), came out coasting in the second half until Clemson clawed all the way back, and eked out a win with a tough final stretch. That seems to be the modus operandi for the whole season. It’s easy to want to blame the inconsistency on an inconsistent lineup–Hamilton often plays ten-plus players–but this strategy isn’t a new one.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Former Georgia Tech legend Bobby Cremins may be walking into a really interesting situation, as he was appointed to serve on the NCAA’s committee on infractions. Cremins should provide a different and much needed perspective for the committee, but he also should get a chance to witness the coming changes first-hand.

N.C. State is 15-4 overall and 4-2 in the ACC and has as much potential of any team in the conference this season. Led by powerful big men and electric wing players, the Wolfpack got their signature win when they knocked off Duke in the RBC Center a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, Mark Gottfried‘s crew has also picked up two very telling losses that speak to the existence of home court advantage in the ACC more than the Wolfpack’s inconsistent play.

Wake Forest fans at the Joel celebrate during their upset win over N.C. State on Tuesday. (AP Photo)

NC State currently has a 1-3 record on the road with two of those losses coming in their last three games. Losses at Maryland and Wake Forest look bad by themselves but when looking at them next to their lone road win — a five-point win at Boston College — the trend becomes upsetting. By this time of the season they have shed the “young team” moniker and their big-minute freshmen have actually been the bright spots for this team away from home. In their three ACC away games, the Wolfpack are shooting 43 percent from the field, down from their outstanding 51 percent total for the season. This is where the issue has been as Gottfried’s team is holding opponents relatively in check on defense with a negligible difference between home and away (41 percent on the road, 40 percent overall). Typically, teams that rely on their defense and scoring inside do well on the road (see Florida State last year), while teams that rely on shooting the ball well from the perimeter inevitably falter in hostile situations.

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NC State took a really tough loss at Wake Forest last night. Fans are frustrated, players are frustrated and coaches are frustrated. Former third-string center Thomas DeThaey took to Twitter to vent his frustration: “That’s what happens when you’re a great recruiter but a terrible coach!” Now comes the juicy part. Current freshman TJ Warren retweeted DeThaey. Was it a slip of the thumb? Was he just passively retweeting the comment?

TJ Warren may want this retweet back.

Regardless, this doesn’t look good. Just to add insult to injury, Rick Lewis — NC State frosh Tyler Lewis‘ father — favorited the tweet. My guess is there’s going to be a penalty — whether “internal” (i.e., suicide sprints), or even a one-game suspension. The latter would really hurt the Wolfpack and Mark Gottfried, as their rotation isn’t deep especially if CJ Leslie or Richard Howell get into foul trouble.

What remains to be seen is how the team will react to a bad loss. NC State flirted with disaster against Boston College and Clemson, tasting a little at Maryland and against Oklahoma State. But this is the team’s first bad loss. This is the first time it’s totally collapsed, losing a 16-point lead to a truly inferior opponent. It’s the rare team that can turn a bad loss into a wake-up call (see: Duke’s loss to Georgetown in 2010, or Florida State’s beatdown at Clemson last season) instead of reason to panic. Usually teams that live and learn from bad losses are well-coached and experienced. This NC State team has experience, but it also has a lot of youth.

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It’s understandable if, before today, you hadn’t thought much about Devin Thomas. The 6’9″ freshmen has only averaged 24.9 minutes per game, and his scoring average of 6.5 PPG for a still-struggling Wake Forest squad hadn’t exactly been the stuff of legend.  You’d think that maybe his true offensive brilliance has been masked by a relative dearth of playing time, but Ken Pomeroy had measured his offensive efficiency at the staggeringly bad figure of 84.9. In one sense, that makes last night’s performance seem especially incredible. It also makes it seem like Thomas was due to finally have some luck.

Devin Thomas Announced His Presence to the Nation Last Night

Against North Carolina State, Thomas out-Howelled none other than Richard Howell himself. The Wolfpack center scored 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting and grabbed 16 rebounds (nine offensive rebounds). Yet somehow, the wily freshmen put up 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting and managed “only” 14 rebounds (also with nine offensive boards) and four blocks. On a night when the two other Wake Forest freshman starters struggled, with Codi Miller-McIntyre amassing six turnovers (though admittedly having a strong shooting night) and Arnaud William Adala Moto fouling out in only 17 minutes, Thomas delivered the strongest performance of his blossoming collegiate career.

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1. Tar Heel Monthly: Chad Ford wrote an article last week that included a list of the college programs that best prepare players for the NBA. He left North Carolina off the list because Roy Williams‘ “players don’t really seem to get any better the longer they stay in the program.” Adam Lucas didn’t take kindly to Ford’s admittedly tired argument and eviscerated it for all to see. This is what happens when facts are fitted to narratives instead of the other way around. Ford published what was becoming a more and more popular narrative (following Harrison Barnes’ “disappointing” career). Lucas shut him down.
2. Orlando Sentinel: Unfortunately, this was an injury you could see coming. Terrance Shannon‘s strength opened him up to injuries like the one he sustained against Virginia on Saturday. If you’ve watched much of Florida State this year, you’ve seen Shannon’s style. He hurls himself at every rebound, every 50/50 ball; he’s not the most athletic guy on the floor, but he wants it more than anyone else. That recklessness caught up to him on a rebound where Shannon landed wrong and sprained his neck. Losing him will really hurt Florida State’s front line — for one reason, Leonard Hamilton will have to cut down his rotation (or add someone else to the mix, which appears unlikely). Additionally, Shannon provided a huge spark off the bench, which the Seminoles will need to replace.
3. Independent Weekly: This is a terrific article that uses Iron Chef as a metaphor for coaching college basketball. Eric Martin also makes a very good point about what Duke may do without Ryan Kelly. Long story short, look for the Blue Devils to push the pace. Especially at the points without Seth Curry in the lineup (which is only 10 minutes a game, but still), look for Duke to start running. Kelly was built to thrive in the halfcourt, but Amile Jefferson, Mason Plumlee, Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon are all meant for running the floor. In the second half against Georgia Tech, Martin points out that Duke cut its time per possession 25 percent from the first half. Not coincidentally, the Blue Devils pulled away.
4. Charlottesville Daily Progress: After the Manti Teo incident, Virginia players are watching their backs on Twitter. If they’re to be believed, all reported girlfriends of the Cavaliers are real. Jontel Evans claims to believe Teo (disclaimer: I don’t), but can’t believe Teo didn’t try to Skype with his girlfriend — especially if he couldn’t meet her in person. Evans himself avoids making relationships of any type over social media, but also has a (real) girlfriend at Virginia.
5. Fayetteville Observer: Well it’s gut-check time in Raleigh. The loss at Maryland was OK (Maryland appears to be a solid team and was desperate for a win), but the loss at Wake Forest wasn’t. Wolfpack fans can blame the officials all they want (and the officials did miss two key fouls down the stretch), but the game shouldn’t have been close enough to matter. What should have been a tune-up before NC State‘s first big showdown with North Carolina became the Wolfpack’s first bad loss. The Demon Deacons scored over 50 points in the second half, they intercepted sloppy passes, and they managed to hang on down the stretch. This game is the reason people are scared to pick NC State to improve on its Sweet Sixteen finish from last year.

EXTRA: Former Miami coach Frank Haith is in hot water with the NCAA. The water may be hot enough to get him fired at Missouri with a show-cause to boot.

Jimmy Kelley is an ACC correspondent for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @DevilsinDurham

I spent this past weekend sitting courtside at the 2013 Hoophall Classic. This was my second year spending five days watching the best and brightest in high school basketball take the court at Springfield College’s Blake Arena, just a three-minute walk from the gym where James Naismith first told a group of YMCA athletes all about his brand-new game. There was only one truly competitive game in the entire tournament: Monday’s match-up between Findlay Prep and Montverde, but the value of the tournament is not in the competition. Instead, it is in watching players who are either college-bound or yet to make a decision about where they will continue their careers. This weekend was loaded with future ACC players and it appears that the league will be in fine hands going forward.

Jabari Parker is a Legitimate Difference Maker (AP)

Leading the way for this group was the consensus No. 2 player in the country, Jabari Parker. The future Duke forward lit up Oak Hill for 28 points and did it all in the flow of the game. He knocked down threes, attacked the basket and did everything without forcing the issue or trying to do too much. He looked as though he is still a week or two away from being back at 100 percent but he looked every bit the Duke-style forward that will slide right into the rotation for the Blue Devils next season.

Syracuse fans, who may still be worried about the Big East at this point, can look forward not just to the ACC but to the players who will be joining them over the next few seasons. Two Syracuse commitments impressed the crowd this weekend in Chris McCullough and Tyler Ennis. McCullough is an evolutionary Chris Bosh, a stretch four who can attack the basket with elite athleticism but can also step away and hit a mid-range jumper. He wowed the crowd with a few highlight reel dunks that every Orange fan will enjoy thoroughly over the next few weeks. Just a junior, McCullough will be a problem for ACC defenses if he can improve any aspect of his game over the next few years. Ennis is the future for the Orange at the point guard position. A bigger player, Ennis has great court vision and did some nice things off the ball for St. Benedict’s (NJ) when they used another player as the primary ball-handler. The heir apparent to Michael Carter-Williams, Ennis will fit right in with Jim Boeheim’s schemes and his long wingspan make him a dream for the top of that 2-3 zone.

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1. Greenville News: Devin Booker had a career game at NC State over the weekend, but it wasn’t enough. While he was an outstanding 8-of-11 from the field, the rest of the team started 2-of-20. The team was slightly better in the second half, but the damage was done. Booker is for real, though. He dominated Florida State’s front line at Clemson, he dominated Richard Howell at NC State, and he dominated Mason Plumlee head-to-head at Duke. His consistency isn’t what it could be, and he doesn’t have the same range as his brother, Trevor, but he’s been the best post player in the ACC through the first few games.
2. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Speaking of post players who are really overachieving this season, Miami’s Julian Gamble has filled in for Reggie Johnson perfectly. Gamble, a sixth-year senior, isn’t the most skilled or athletic guy on the court, but he’s got a Richard Howell-like motor and knows some tricks of the trade. He shows flashes of brilliance in the post (see: his beautiful lefty baby hook against North Carolina), but most of what he does well isn’t pretty. In some ways, Miami may be better with him in the game than Johnson (who had a tendency to check out of some games), a thought that seemed absurd just a couple of short weeks ago.
3. Washington Post: I’m going to go ahead and disagree with Roy Williams a lot. In Monday’s teleconference with ACC coaches, Williams said, “I do think, top to bottom, the league is probably the best in the 10 years I’ve been back. If you take somebody lightly in this league right now, you’re going to lose. I don’t care who you are or who you’re playing.” I’d direct him to his first season in the league (2003-04) when six of the conference’s nine teams made the NCAA Tournament with seeds of #1, #3, #3, #4, #4 and #6. Only one team was ranked below #56 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (Clemson at #97)–and three were in the top 10. But Williams does have a point: The league is full of mediocrity and road wins are going to be nearly impossible to come by this year.
4. Streaking the Lawn: Speaking of road wins, Virginia is in some serious RPI trouble, as the Cavaliers currently sit at #139. No team has ever made the NCAA Tournament as an at-large with an RPI below #70. The biggest issues are home losses and a horrid strength of schedule. On paper, Virginia’s schedule was never full of world-beaters, but an untimely home loss to Delaware (which caused the Cavaliers to play Lamar and North Texas instead of a couple of stronger power-conference teams) and major under-performance (here’s looking at you Old Dominion) have sabotaged Virginia’s RPI to an alarming extent. It will come up, but the Cavaliers are going to need to steal some ACC road wins and avoid any home losses at all costs going forward.
5. Orlando Sentinel: Well so much for the “Roy Williams can’t recruit anymore” narrative. It was always a reactionary storyline, but Williams put it to bed for the time-being with a commitment from consensus Class of 2014 top-15 prospect Joel Berry. Berry, one of the top point guards in that class, should quiet worried fans as well as help attract other top players to Chapel Hill going forward.