Conference Tourney Primers: Sun Belt

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Sun Belt Tournament

Dates: March 12-15

Site: Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, LA)

sunbeltreal

What to expect: Georgia State was thought to be a Cinderella-in-the-making before an uneven and somewhat disappointing campaign quieted that talk. The Panthers still won the Sun Belt title, though, and few other teams boast a pair of guards as offensively gifted as R.J. Hunter, the coach’s son, and Ryan Harrow, the former Kentucky and NC State transfer. Possible challengers include Georgia Southern and Louisiana Monroe – two of the league’s best defensive units – along with Louisiana-Lafayette, which broke Georgia State’s heart in the title game last season. The top seed has not won this tournament since 2009, a trend Ron Hunter’s group hopes to buck this weekend. A double-bye to the semifinals helps.

Favorite: Georgia State. Georgia State was the most efficient offensive and defensive team in conference play this season, led by that stellar backcourt and Ron Hunter’s 2-3 zone – which limited eight of its last 10 opponents to under a point per possession. The Panthers’ defense has improved so much from a year ago, in fact, that it’s helped the team overcome slightly worse offensive numbers overall. That well-roundedness – along with a double-bye to the semifinals – puts them in great position this weekend.

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Bracket Prep: Lafayette

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Lafayette

Lafayette clinched its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2000. (Austin Drucker / Lafayette Student News)

Lafayette clinched its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2000. (Austin Drucker / Lafayette Student News)

  • Patriot League Champion (20-12, 9-9)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #127/#197/#175
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = -0.2
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #16

Strength: Lafayette is one of the best shooting teams in college basketball, ranking among the top-15 nationally in three-point percentage (41%), effective field goal percentage (55.8%) and free throw shooting (76.5%). In fact, only one other team boasts a better mark from long distance, thanks in large part to guys like Joey Ptasinski (46% 3FG) and Bryce Scott. The Leopards’ pick-and-pop game is lethal, and big man Dan Trist (17.6 PPG) along with stretch-four Seth Hinrichs, present serious matchup problems. Henrichs is especially difficult to handle because of his size (6’8”) and three-point shooting prowess (38% 3FG). Basically, Fran O’Hanlon’s team can – and does – light-up opponents from all over the floor, which its sparkling offensive efficiency mark reflects (110.5 AdjO).

Weakness: Despite its hyper-efficient offense, there’s a reason Lafayette lost 12 games this season and finished fourth in its conference’s regular season race: The Leopards simply are not good defensively. And that’s probably an understatement, because as it stands, only 14 teams in America sport worse efficiency numbers on that end of the floor. They do not take away the three-point line (surrendering 37.6% 3FG) and despite playing zone for a good chunk of the time, O’Hanlon’s bunch is easily gashed on the interior and does a poor job of cleaning up misses (315th in defensive rebounding percentage). Just two weeks ago, Colgate shot 66 percent from the field (and 21-of-24 from the stripe) on its way to an eye-popping 1.44 points per possession in beating the Leopards by 12. Even though Lafayette was slightly better in the Patriot League Tournament, the league champs will probably struggle on that end next week.

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Conference Tourney Primers: Big West

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Big West Tournament

Dates: March 12-14

Site: Honda Center (Anaheim, CA)

bwreal

What to expect: UC Davis, picked seventh in the preseason, put together its best campaign in program history and won the conference championship with ease. The Aggies are the best three-point shooting team in America and nearly impossible to stop when guard Corey Hawkins and his pinpoint accurate teammates catch fire. Still, UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine – beset by injuries for much of the year – are finally healthy and playing their best basketball of the season, while inconsistent-but-talented Long Beach State remains a threat. The Big West has good star players – Hawkins, USCB’s Alan Williams and LBSU’s Mike Caffey among them – along with an element of unpredictability that should make for a fun few days in Anaheim. In 2014, #7 seed Cal Poly beat #5 seed Cal State Northridge for the tournament crown, so anything is possible.

Favorite: UC Davis. The Aggies won their first-ever Big West title by three full games after going just 4-12 in conference play last season. How did that happen? For one thing, they got healthy – forwards Josh Ritchart (11.9 PPG) and J.T. Adenrele (6.3 RPG) returned after missing most of 2013-14 – but also because they simply shot the lights out. Both Hawkins and coach’s son Tyler Les shoot around 49 percent from behind the arc, and as a team they drill 45 percent of their attempts – easily the best mark in college hoops. With the conference’s most lethal offensive attack, UC Davis is the team to beat.

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Conference Tourney Primers: WAC

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

WAC Tournament

Dates: March 12-14

Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)

wacrealWhat to expect: The talent gap between New Mexico State and the rest of the conference is substantial, a reality which the final standings confirmed; Marvin Menzies’ team cruised to a 12-1 WAC record and won the league by four games. The Aggies are led by an athletic point guard, senior Daniel Mullings, and one of the tallest frontcourts in college basketball. Since losing to Seattle in mid-January, the league champs have reeled off 11 straight victories, including their last seven by an average of nearly 16 points per game. And on top of all that, they are the only team with a bye to the semifinals. It’s hard to imagine the Redhawks or any other challenger stopping them from reaching a fourth-straight NCAA Tournament.

Favorite: New Mexico State. The Aggies were hit with the injury bug in early December, losing preseason all-conference forward Tshilidzi Nephawe for one month with a foot injury, and Mullings – reigning WAC Player of the Year – for eight weeks with a broken finger. Both are back and fully healthy, and the team now looks as good as it has all season. That is bad news for everyone else.

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Conference Tourney Primers: Big Sky

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Big Sky Tournament

Dates: March 12-14

Site: Dahlberg Arena (Missoula, MT)

skyrl

What to expect: Montana clinched the top seed and earned the right to play in its own building, which is bad news for everyone else; the tournament host has won this event five years running. But the Big Sky is also more competitive than it has been in years, with Eastern Washington (co-champions), Sacramento State and Northern Arizona all finishing tied or within a game of the Grizzlies. The Eagles, which snapped Indiana’s 43-game non-conference home winning streak in November, are an especially dangerous team – lethal from behind the arc and proven on the road. Jim Hayford’s bunch was the only Big Sky unit to win in Missoula this season. In reality, the conference race became so unpredictable towards the end of the year that it’s hard to give an advantage to any one contender outside of Montana’s obvious home-court edge.

Favorite: Montana. Montana won eight of its last nine games to end the regular season and now welcomes its Big Sky comrades to Dahlberg Area, where it was 8-1 in conference play. The Grizzlies parlayed home-court advantage into a pair NCAA Tournament appearances in both 2012 and 2013, and while this year’s group might not be as good as those teams, it’s hard to argue with history – especially in a league where home teams went 66-42 in 2014-15.

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Bracket Prep: Valparaiso, Robert Morris & North Dakota State

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 11th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Valparaiso

Valparaiso is heading back to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in five years. (horizonleague.com)

Valparaiso is heading back to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in five years. (horizonleague.com)

  • Horizon League Champion (28-5, 13-3)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #59/#66/#73
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +6.9
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #12

Strength: The Crusaders are an excellent defensive unit equipped with one of the best interior defenders at the mid-major level in 6’10” center Vashil Fernandez; the senior led the Horizon League in blocks per game (2.9 BPG) and boasts the sixth-best block percentage in college hoops. His ability to protect the rim – along with good complementary size around him – enables Valparaiso to prevent quality looks (or often any looks) on the inside. Bryce Drew’s group held Green Bay to just 36.8 percent shooting from inside the arc and 0.75 PPP on Tuesday night, their 44 points the lowest Horizon League championship total since Butler limited Milwaukee to the same mark in 2011. Valparaiso is also a very good rebounding team, with its offensive and defensive rebounding percentages ranking among the top 50 in America.

Weakness: Valpo suffered the highest turnover rate in the Horizon League this season and can be streaky offensively. On top of that, freshman guard Tevonn Walker – the team’s third-leading scorer (10.5 PPG) – was injured in the conference semifinals and may not be healthy in time for next week’s NCAA Tournament opener. Defensively, the Crusaders are less dominant when Fernandez is not on the floor, which – considering he only plays 24. 7 minutes per game – means there are periodic stretches of vulnerability.

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Conference Tourney Primers: Southland

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 11th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Southland Tournament

Dates: March 11-14

Site: Merrell Center (Katy, TX)

southland

What to expect: This is Stephen F. Austin’s tournament to lose. Over the past two seasons, the Lumberjacks have gone 35-1 in Southland play and won 28 of those contests by double-figures, using sharp offensive ball movement and half-court pressure defense to make easy work of most challengers. Brad Underwood’s club has won seven games in a row since stumbling at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in mid-February, including its title-clinching victory over second-place Sam Houston State last Saturday. That last win was not easy, however, and those Bearkats – statistically one of the best defensive teams in the country – could present another tough test on Saturday. Stephen F. Austin and Sam Houston State combined for a 32-4 conference record this season and are overwhelming favorites to reach the title game, especially since five of the league’s 13 teams are ineligible for postseason play and will not participate. Despite a tough final hurdle, expect Stephen F. Austin to reach the NCAA Tournament – and possibly do damage while there – for a second straight year.

Favorite: Stephen F. Austin. This year’s Lumberjacks are slightly more efficient and substantially more accurate than last year’s group, which beat VCU in the round of 64. Their effective field goal percentage (56.1% eFG) is the 10th best mark in college basketball and their offense as a whole ranks among the sport’s 30 most efficient, thanks largely to the success of Jacob Parker (48% 3FG) and Southland Player of the Year Thomas Walkup (126.8 ORtg). Stephen F. Austin has dominated the conference from start to finish and seems unlikely to slow down this week in Katy.

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Conference Tourney Primers: Conference USA

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 11th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Conference USA Tournament

Dates: March 11-14

Site: Birmingham–Jefferson Convention Complex (Birmingham, AL)

cusa

What to expect: Old Dominion hit a rough patch midway through the conference slate before regrouping and ending the season on six-game winning streak that included a 19-point drubbing of Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs, meanwhile – outright league champions – responded with a man-handling of UTEP and two easy home victories, sparked by the elevated play of Murray State transfer Erik McCree. Both teams could be on a collision course for the Conference USA championship game. Then again, navigating through a bracket filled with tough, physical teams won’t be easy. UTEP, the #2 seed, is equipped with the league’s best player, forward Vince Hunter, while UAB has the advantage of playing in its home town. Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State and even 14-17 Charlotte are talented  teams that should make life difficult. Expect a bruising few days in Birmingham.

Favorite: Louisiana Tech. This is a toss-up between Louisiana Tech and Old Dominion, but let’s give the Bulldogs the nod since their side of the bracket seems slightly more manageable. Michael White’s uptempo club boasts the conference’s best backcourt – Raheem Appleby and Alex Hamilton combine for 31 points per game and Kenneth ‘Speedy’ Smith leads the country in assists (7.5 APG) – along with its top shot-blocker, 6’10” center Michale Kyser (3.0 BPG). They thrive on full court pressure and transition offense and should play much better in a neutral court environment then they do on the road, where all seven of their losses took place.

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Bracket Prep: Wofford, Northeastern & Manhattan

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 10th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners

Wofford

Wofford will be a scary #12-seed next week if the matchup is right. (AP Photo/Adam Jennings)

Wofford will be a scary #12-seed next week if the matchup is right. (AP Photo/Adam Jennings)

  • Southern Conference Champion (28-6, 16-2)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #48/#90/#86
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +5.0
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #12

Strength: Control is the name of the game for Wofford, on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Terriers like to slow things down (19.1 seconds per possession) and look for the best shot, which often winds up in the hands of conference Player of the Year Karl Cochran; the guard takes more than one-third of his team’s shots when he is on the floor. The SoCon champs also do a great job of taking care of the ball, coughing it up just four times in their 55-54 upset over North Carolina State in December. Still, as steady as its offense can be, Wofford’s real bread and butter is on the defensive end where it holds opponents to just over 0.97 points per possession. The Terriers tend not to gamble in the full-court (in line with that whole ‘control’ idea), but they do like making life difficult on the perimeter – reflected in their 30.8 percent three-point defense (26th-best mark in college hoops).

Weakness: Wofford severely lacks size – ranking 329th nationally in effective height – and it shows against much bigger opponents. In its season opener against Stanford, the Terriers were single-handedly beaten by 6’11” big man Stefan Nastic, who scored 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting. It was a similar story in Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke’s Jahlil Okafor shot 11-of-14 and scored 24 points. Forwards Lee Skinner and C.J. Neumann are both good players, but their lack of height (6’6” and 6’7”, respectively) could become a liability against a much larger NCAA Tournament opponent.

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Conference Tourney Primers: SWAC

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 10th, 2015

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

SWAC Tournament

Dates: March 10-14

Site: Toyota Center (Houston, TX)

(swac.org)

(swac.org)

What to expect: Second-seeded Alabama State and third-seeded Southern are both ineligible for postseason play this year, so should one of those two win the event – a distinct possibility – the next-highest finisher will claim the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Then again, it might not matter. Texas Southern, which beat Michigan State and Kansas State back in non-conference play, looks poised to reach the Big Dance for a second straight year after winning the league title with relative ease. The transfer-laden Tigers are experienced, talented and have the benefit of playing in their own backyard (the Toyota Center is located just three miles from the Texas Southern campus). It’s hard to see Mike Davis’ club losing prior to the championship game, where it would likely meet the Hornets or Jaguars.

Favorite: Texas Southern. You don’t beat NCAA Tournament-caliber opponents like the Spartans and Wildcats without having quality talent on your roster, and that certainly holds true for Texas Southern. Marshall transfer Chris Thomas (12.3 PPG) is a former five-star recruit, Deverell Biggs (11.8 PPG) nearly averaged double-figures in his time at Nebraska. And Madarious Gibbs (14.1 PPG) is the SWAC Player of the Year. The Tigers have a lot to work with.

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