The start of Championship Week didn’t fail to titillate, as four conference championship games all went down to the last few possessions before Davidson, St. Mary’s, Loyola (MD), and VCU each survived. All in all, including those conferences — the SoCon, WCC, MAAC, and CAA — plus the Summit League and Sun Belt, we knocked nine more schools off the Circle of March tonight. And as you see below, some serious swaths of emptiness are developing and appear to be concentrating in the northern hemisphere of the CoM now, with 192 teams still standing.
There are three more championship games tonight in the Horizon League, Summit League and Sun Belt Conference, while the Big East tips off from Madison Square Garden as well as the Atlantic 10 in Atlantic City and the MEAC in Winston-Salem. Onward…
It’s an extremely busy week of basketball, with the Big East Tournament already beginning and the other power conference leagues all tipping off in the next two days. Instead of doing the standard early-week RTC Podcast this time around, we decided to break things up a little bit. First, we’ve got the shorter nationally-focused RTC Podblast, but we also brought in some of our microsite correspondents from each of the major leagues to riff a little about their upcoming tournaments. Today we’ll release the Big East Tournament Podblast (with Brian Otskey), the Big 12 Tournament Podblast (with Danny Spewak), and the Pac-12 Tournament Podblast (with Andrew Murawa). Tomorrow we’ll have the other three.
Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter (@vbtnblog)
Tournament Glance
Postseason Preview
All first round games will be played at the campus of the higher seed on Tuesday (3/6) night. Using the log5 calculation, the order of probability of an upset is:
#8 Massachusetts/#9 Duquesne (73-27)
#7 La Salle/#10 Richmond (76-24)
#6 Dayton/#11 George Washington (86-14)
#5 Saint Joseph’s/#12 Charlotte (84-16)
Probability follows seed this season, a departure from previous seasons. The Dayton/George Washington game will be a return engagement. The Flyers beat the Colonials by 16 at home last Saturday. A rookie coach with a team that may be overconfident could spell upset. But unlike 2010-11, the higher seeds in this round have proven over the last 16 games to be the stronger teams. Seed should hold. If Xavier, Saint Joseph’s and Dayton all win at least once more, the conference will boast seven 20-game winning programs for the 2011-12 season, only the second time in conference history when seven members collected 20 or more wins.
The Temple/Saint Bonaventure side of the bracket offers (if seed holds) two interesting quarterfinal matchups for a Friday afternoon. Both could well become “do-overs” of games played in the last week of the season. Temple barely beat Massachusetts (at the Liacouras in Philadelphia) on February 29, but only after an overtime period. Neither squad should need much by way of motivation. The Hawks dropped their last game of the regular season to the Bonnies, by five, on the road. A Bonnies win would bolster their NIT credentials (and put them into a winnable semi-final game with either Temple or Massachusetts), while a Saint Joseph’s win could well set-up an all-Philadelphia semi-final that should cause a traffic jam as Big 5 fans and partisans of both schools pile onto the Atlantic City Expressway to see the rubber game. Read the rest of this entry »
Sunday was day seven of Championship Fortnight, and although there weren’t a lot of championship games — Monday is actually a better night for that — we still eliminated another 15 teams from national title contention. Yesterday also brought us to our first quandary of what to do with bubble teams from small conferences with Top 50 RPI ratings. We’d rather be more inclusive at this point rather than less, so for that reason we’re keeping MAAC regular season champion Iona (RPI: #38) and Sun Belt regular season champion Middle Tennessee State (RPI: #44) in the Circle of March. Their fates are in the Selection Committee’s hands now, but we’re not willing to eliminate them just yet.
That leaves us with 201 schools still alive heading into tonight’s action. Monday is a relatively light night beyond the four championship games in the CAA, MAAC, SoCon and WCC, but we’ll be back tomorrow as always with an updated CoM.
Consider this an open letter to the Cameron Crazie who painted “RUSH THE COURT” on his chest and stomach during Saturday night’s game against UNC. We don’t know who you are, or why you made this plea for our attention, but we saw you (h/t @matt_poindexter) and we’re ready to offer you permanent status on our Board of Directors for your free advertising (or a t-shirt, if you prefer).
Great Product Placement in the Cameron Crazies Section (credit: News-Observer)
And who says that the Cameron Crazies are lame and unoriginal? Contact us at rushthecourt@yahoo.com for your prize.
David Changas is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after observing Murray State at the OVC Tournament this weekend.
If it is possible in college basketball to win 30 games in relative anonymity, Murray State has done it. The Racers, who became a story in college basketball when they were the last team undefeated team this season, capped off a remarkable run to capture the Ohio Valley Conference championship with a 54-52 victory over conference runner-up Tennessee State Saturday in Nashville. But while the Racers dominated their league (their only loss coming to the same Tennessee State team on February 9) and ascended to a rare Top 10 ranking that they have held for a good portion of the season, most of America still doesn’t know a lot about this team, which is led by first-year coach Steve Prohm.
Murray's Dream Season Continues, But Now As OVC Champions
The discussion surrounding the Racers over the past few weeks has not been whether they would make the NCAA Tournament without winning the OVC automatic bid – that became a foregone conclusion after Murray State’s BracketBuster win over St. Mary’s – but where they would be seeded. While Prohm said after the game that a look at the Racers’ body of work would justify as high as a #2 seed, he admitted that a “four, five, or six” is more likely. What is most important to him is that his team’s loyal fans – and they dominated the crowds in Nashville over the weekend – have a chance to see them play. “I just want proximity. Nashville, Louisville. Somewhere where our fans can come and support our guys,” Prohm said.
When the tidal wave of conference realignment swept through college sports last summer, it was clear from the outset that it was a football-driven shift of power, and college basketball fans were left to wonder just what it meant for their favorite schools, their favorite conferences, and their favorite sport. As someone who grew up religiously watching the Pac-10, the conference that had been the second-longest one in its current iteration before the fateful events of June 2010, I found myself contemplating what it was going to do to the league that I had been dedicated to for more than a decade. But my questioning was probably dwarfed by those of fans of Colorado and Utah, two teams already in transition were suddenly thrown for an even bigger loop.
Colorado and Utah Have Acquitted Themselves in Different Ways This Season (AP/Colin E Braley)
Colorado, coming from a bigger conference and a run to the NIT semifinals in Madison Square Garden, came to the newly christened Pac-12 on better footing than their westerly rivals. Even still, it was just head coach Tad Boyle‘s second season in charge of the Buffaloes, and he lost his top four scorers, including honorable mention All-American and unanimous first-team All-Big 12 selection, Alec Burks. Burks set the school’s single-season scoring record as a sophomore before leaving Boulder for the NBA Draft, and he and seniors Cory Higgins, Levi Knutson and Marcus Relphorde were three-quarters of the Buffaloes’ scoring production in 2010-11.
Saturday was a ridiculous elimination day with a total of 42 teams dropping off of our Circle of March. Granted, four of those schools were simply Great West teams finishing up their regular season, and another six were A-10 and SWAC schools who did not qualify for their respective conference tournaments. But 32 other teams were beaten in knockout games from 15 conferences in one of the busiest days of Championship Fortnight. We won’t list them all here, but the biggest name off our CoM is the two-time national runner-up, Butler, who was taken apart by Valparaiso in the Horizon League semifinals yesterday. We are now at 216 teams still alive for the 2012 national champoinship, which means that in just over six days, we’ve already eliminated over 100 schools from contention.
Sunday is a bit less busy than yesterday with eight tournaments in action and the MVC the only one among those to have a championship game. More importantly, we’re now only one week from the best hour in American sports — the revealing of the official bracket.
The first three NCAA Tournament bids were earned on Saturday afternoon, so as each of the 31 automatic qualifiers plays their way into the Dance over the next week, we’ll take some time to give you an analytical snapshot of each team that you can refer back to when you’re picking your brackets next weekend.
UNC Asheville
UNCA Was the First Team to Dance This Year (E. Brethauer/Citizen-Times)
Big South Champion (24-9, 19-2)
RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #108/#123/#128
Adjusted Scoring Margin = +4.7
Likely NCAA Seed: #16 (First Four)
Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.
UNC-Asheville is one of the smallest teams in America, sporting a starting lineup that goes between 6’1″ and 6’5″. Their next three players off the bench are roughly the same size, which means that UNCA’s primary objective each night is to make the game into a full-court running affair. The Bulldogs are among the top 35 fastest tempos nationally, and you might expect them to rely heavily on the three-ball, but that’s not the case. Asheville’s offense instead seeks to drive the ball into the paint to shoot twos (52.5% 2FGs) and pick up fouls (77.4% FTs).
The straws that stir the Bulldog attack are the backcourt duo of JP Primm and Matt Dickey, both all-Big South selections (Dickey was the conference POY). The pair of seniors are both capable shooters and distributors who played well in last year’s First Four win against Arkansas-Little Rock and subsequent loss to #1 seed Pittsburgh. They’ve played enough high major teams in their careers — North Carolina, NC State, Connecticut, Tennessee in just this year — so that they’re unlikely to get rattled.
The best matchup for the Bulldogs would be another undersized First Four team that does not defend well, allowing the uptempo guards of Primm and Dickey to pick their spots and make things happen. Their next round game against a #1 seed is unlikely to matter in terms of a favorable matchup, but clearly bigger teams would be more difficult for Eddie Biedenbach’s team to handle. The Bulldogs were competitive with each of the power conference teams mentioned above.
Jonathan Reed of Big Sky Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Sky conference. You can find him on Twitter at @bigskybball.
Tournament Preview
Tournament Glance
Everybody is assuming that Weber State and Montana will have a rematch in the conference championship game, but don’t be so sure about that. Portland State has the offensive talent to hang with the Wildcats on a neutral court, and Eastern Washington has given Montana some competitive games (those two teams are the favorites to advance past the quarterfinals).
That said, it would be a surprise if it is not Weber State and Montana in a rematch on Wednesday night. They have been the two best teams in the Big Sky all season, have the two best players in the conference, and have the best talent. It would be a great rematch, as each has won convincingly on their home court.
However, I think Weber State will reverse what happened last week, when Montana beat them to clinch the regular season championship. Nobody talked about this, but Weber State played their worst game of the season, and they were within five points late in the second half. They can’t shoot that poorly again, and I have to think that Damian Lillard will show why he has been the best player in the conference all year long. Look for a classic title game, with Weber State coming in and shocking the faithful at Dahlberg Arena to clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Reader’s Take
Big Sky Awards
Player of the Year: Damian Lillard (Weber State) – There is some talk that Cherry should get the award, or that they should split it, but I still like Lillard as the best player in the conference all season. He carried them early on in the year and has been outstanding all year. He is the best PG in America, and has had the best all-around season.
Simply Put, Weber State's Damian Lillard Has Been One Of The Country's Best This Season (AP)
Defensive Player of the Year: Will Cherry (Montana) – This is an easy choice, as Cherry is sixth in the nation in steals and already fifth in Big Sky history in that category (he has one season of eligibility left). He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, and the one guy in the conference as likely to change the game on the defensive end as he is on the offensive end.
Newcomer of the Year: Dylan Garrity (Sacramento State) – He has some work to do on his game (namely that he needs to shoot the ball better), but he has been everything Brian Katz could have hoped for and then some.
Freshman of the Year: Dylan Garrity (Sacramento State) – There are arguments to be made for James Douglas of Northern Arizona or Tevin Svihovec of UNC, but I think Garrity is the guy here. He has stepped in and been the primary ballhandler and facilitator from day one for the Hornets. He could lead the Big Sky in assists every year of his career.
Coach of the Year: Wayne Tinkle (Montana) – There could certainly be an argument made for Deane Martin, who changed the culture around at ISU this year, but I would give the award to Tinkle. This is a team that lost the best defensive player in the conference, and came back to be even better defensively. He had a relatively young team, and surpassed already high expectations.
Power Rankings
Montana (23-6, 15-1) – They earned this spot, having won 12 straight games and 18 of 19. After playing second fiddle in people’s minds all season long, they enter the conference tournament as the favorite, by virtue of their win over Weber State on Tuesday night. They are one of Wayne Tinkle’s best offensive teams, and they have a multitude of guys that can step up and hurt you offensively. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar looked like the best guard duo in the Big Sky to close the regular season.
Montana Point Guard Will Cherry and Coach Wayne Tinkle Has Been A Winning Combo This Season
Weber State (23-5, 14-2) – They spent almost the entire season at the top of everyone’s radar, but they came up short in the biggest game of the year. Damian Lillard is an excellent player, but he has struggled in some of their biggest games this season. Look for them to come out strong in the conference tournament, because they know they have some unfinished business. In most years, 14-2 would win you the Big Sky, but this was not most years.
Portland State (16-13, 10-6) – Quietly they are playing very good basketball, having won six straight conference games. Charles Odum is playing at a very high level, and is matched only by Lillard in his scoring prowess. He gets to the line often, and shoots a very high percentage. He forms a nice duo with Chehales Tapscott, the best rebounder in the conference and perhaps the most versatile player. They are going to be a tough out.
Eastern Washington (14-16, 8-8) – They have had an up and down season, but end the year about where everyone predicted, in fourth place in the conference. On paper, they have the talent to give someone an interesting game in the tournament, but it is just a matter of not making mental mistakes. Cliff Colimon has ended the year strong, and has shown himself to be one of the best PGs in the conference.
Idaho State (9-20, 7-9) – They are the surprise of the conference, as they are a team that everyone predicted to finish in the Big Sky cellar, yet they are in fifth place and almost hosted a conference tournament game. Deane Martin should get consideration for Coach of the Year, and should have already had his interim tag removed. It will be an upset if they win a conference tournament game, but they have already surpassed expectations.
Northern Colorado (9-19, 5-11) –They didn’t get as many wins as they would have liked, but they showed flashes of the potential that should make them a top 4 team next season. They lost one senior this year, and they will have no seniors next season. They are balanced and have a lot of different players that should make the leap. They will be fine.
If There Is One Team To Crash The Anticipated Rematch, Charles Odum and Portland State Might Be It (AP)
Sacramento State (10-18, 5-11) – They didn’t get to their goal of .500, but they made baby steps toward becoming a solid Big Sky team. They return almost everyone next year, and should have one of the best PGs in the league in Dylan Garrity. At the very least, next year should be Sac State’s best year in a while.
Montana State (12-16, 7-9) – It is hard to classify this year as anything but disappointing. They started the conference season at 6-2, and had the look of a top 3 tournament team. Next thing you know, they lose eight straight games and sneak into the tournament as the six seed. They dealt with a lot of off-the-court issues, including the off-court injury to Xavier Blount, which did a lot to derail their season.
