ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts From North Carolina – Maryland

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Maryland ended up losing by 16 thanks to five garbage time points. But the story of the game was John Henson‘s injury, which forced Roy Williams to use alternative line-ups for much of the game.

  • There may be a more serious chasm between Mark Turgeon and Terrell Stoglin than I originally thought. Stoglin kept Maryland in the game. He got trigger happy at times, but his shots fell far more than any other Terrapin starters. At one point in the second half according to Adam Smith (I was behind the North Carolina bench), “Turgeon, stomping: ‘I can’t coach him!’ after Stoglin wasn’t listening.” Obviously, you don’t want to read too much into Turgeon’s frustration in a game that was spiraling out of control quickly. But those two need to be on the same page.

    Terrell Stoglin And Mark Turgeon Need To Resolve Their Differences.

  • North Carolina has an embarrassment of riches up front. Even after Henson’s wrist injury, the Tar Heels got 14 points and eight rebounds from James Michael McAdoo in just under 30 minutes of playing time. McAdoo got criticized after preseason expectations were much more than he delivered. But his game looked a lot more polished against Maryland. Offensively he brings a lot of things that Henson doesn’t (after the game Kendall Marshall mentioned his ability to face up and slash to the basket). He’s also an incredible worker. Even potentially losing first team All-ACC forwards Henson and Tyler Zeller, North Carolin should still own one of the best front lines next year thanks to McAdoo.
  • Maryland’s front line needs some work. Alex Len blocked a couple of shots early, but he and James Padgett combined to go 0-7 from the field (and 0-2 from the charity stripe) and only hauled in four rebounds in 34 combined minutes of play. That’s not going to cut it. Ashton Pankey and Mychal Parker put up a strong effort off the bench, combining for 15 points and 12 boards.

Miscellaneous notes:

Henson’s wrist was x-rayed and the results reportedly came back negative. He didn’t play because he was having trouble grabbing the ball. Sounds like there will be a MRI and he’ll be reevaluated tonight and tomorrow.

It’s also worth noting that Kendall Marshall continued his improved offensive play, knocking down 3-4 threes. It can’t be said enough how much harder that makes the Tar Heels to guard.

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ACC Tournament: Miami Outlasts Georgia Tech and Day Two Preview

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Miami needs to hope the Selection Committee didn’t watch the first 27 minutes of this game, or the eye test won’t be their friend. With 13 minutes left in the game Miami trailed Georgia Tech 27-26 after DeQuan Jones knocked down two free throws. To that point the two teams had combined for 17 made field goals and 20 turnovers. Suddenly Rion Brown‘s bright orange shoes caught fire, as Miami extended its 2-0 run to an 18-0 run, knocking down 7-8 shots.

Durand Scott Was The Only Player Better Than 50% From The Floor Last Night.

Yesterday, the ACC Tournament did not showcase well-played basketball. But all of the games, except for Maryland’s thumping of Wake Forest, were close in the second half. Because the only “upset” was Virginia Tech beating Clemson, I expect both the quality of basketball to go up significantly today without losing too much competitiveness (coincidentally, I’m predicting one blowout and it involves Maryland).

Today’s preview after the jump.

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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts from Virginia Tech – Clemson

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

As we expected it came down to the final couple of minutes, but Virginia Tech pulled out a 68-63 win over Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

  • Free throws, free throws, free throws. Look at the box score from the game, and it looks like Clemson should’ve won. Similar rebounding numbers, better shooting percentages and only a slim deficit in turnovers. But the Tigers only shot 60% from the charity stripe to the Hokies’ 85%. That was the difference. With a little over a minute left Tanner Smith missed two free throws including the front end of a one-and-one. Brian Narcisse and Devin Booker also missed one. That’s five points left on the board in the final minute alone. There’s your deficit.
  • “We haven’t practiced special situations as much; we’ve just lived it,” Seth Greenberg commented on his team’s youth and their tendency towards tough games (17 games decided by six points or less). Virginia Tech’s closing has been up and down all season. It was up and down tonight too. The Hokies gave up one five-second violation trying to inbound the ball and probably should’ve had another. They gave up several second-chance opportunities down the stretch to keep Clemson in striking distance. Tomorrow against Duke, that execution will have to be a lot crisper.
  • Tanner Smith has one of the best motors in the conference. He and Andre Young were everywhere defensively for Clemson down the stretch. Young got most of the accolades because of his importance on offense, but Smith is a big part of why Clemson’s defense is so effective. He’s a very versatile defender who fights through every screen. Those two are going to be impossible for Brad Brownell to replace next year. At least for replacing Young, the freshman Devin Coleman had a terrific game (truthfully, I don’t know why he didn’t get more time during the season).
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ACC Tournament: NC State Survives Boston College

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

Whatever the final score might say, Boston College was right with NC State until the last ten minutes. This is a story Eagles fans know well.

Boston College showed its youth early. The Eagles started the game 0-7 from the field with five turnovers. At that point, I wondered if they could keep the deficit below 30. NC State led 14-0, and it wasn’t even that close. The Eagles were being couldn’t hold onto the ball settled for contested threes when they could get off a shot. The deficit remained at double digits until Lonnie Jackson knocked down two threes in the last three minutes to cut the NC State lead to eight. Out of the Wolfpack timeout, Alex Johnson turned it over, giving Boston College the chance to cut the lead to five with a three. Instead, Patrick Heckmann missed a lay-up (he’s definitely still recovering from the month-long bout with mono earlier in conference play); Dennis Clifford committed an offensive foul; and all hell broke loose.

Steve Donahue's Work Cut Out for Him, but Pieces Starting to Emerge for the Eagles.

Still only down eight with the ball with 30 seconds left, Boston College looked ready to seize control of the momentum by adding to an 8-0 run to close out the half. Instead, Jordan Daniels committed a huge freshman turnover. He turned his back to Lorenzo Brown to look at Steve Donahue for the play. Next thing you know Brown picked his pocket and made him pay on the other end with the and-one. Brown missed the free throw, but another Boston College turnover (the team’s thirteenth of the half) led to CJ Williams’ first basket of the afternoon. Suddenly a potentially 10-0 or 11-0 run in favor of the Eagles was an 8-5 stretch, and the lead was back to 13. Those costly mental errors plagued Donahue’s team all season. They reflect the backcourt youth.

Conclusion and thoughts on NC State after the break.

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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts from Wake Forest – Maryland

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

In the end it was a dominant win by Maryland. Jeff Bzdelik pulled his starters at the under-four media timeout (to be fair, Nikita Mescheriakov and Tony Chennault had already fouled out by that point).

  • Starting with Wake Forest, this game didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know. The Demon Deacons played Maryland tough the first 15 minutes and fell apart. After leading 26-21, Maryland went on a 35-9 run including the beginning of the second half. The biggest issue all afternoon for Jeff Bzdelik’s squad was production from players not named Mescheriakov, CJ Harris and Travis McKie. Those three scored 52 of Wake Forest’s 60 points (it would’ve been more had Bzdelik left them in to the bitter end). Chennault and Carson Desrosiers combined to go 1-13 from the field. That won’t cut it coming from starters. Period.
  • On Maryland’s end, it’s really tough to judge how impressive the Terrapins were against Wake Forest. There’s no argument that they didn’t dominate the game, but Wake Forest also lost all of its will to win after giving up its five-point lead in dramatic fashion down the stretch in the first half. The best news from Mark Turgeon’s standpoint is that he got to rest his thin line-up for much of the second half, which will keep the teams’ collective legs fresh for a game tomorrow against North Carolina.
  • In contrast to Wake Forest’s starters, Maryland’s combined to go 25-43 from the field (58%) thanks to one of Nick Faust‘s best games of the year (19 points on ten shots) and a very strong game from James Padgett (5-6 from the field). This Maryland team could make North Carolina work tomorrow if Faust and Padgett can combine for more points than Terrell Stoglin.
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ACC Season Wrap-Up and Tournament Preview

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

First, here’s a quick preview of the ACC Tournament. You can find the rest of the power rankings after the jump.
The two Thursday games you should keep a close eye on are Clemson – Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest – Maryland. I trust Miami and NC State will have no trouble putting away their opponents, though Georgia Tech has played a couple of very good games this year.
While North Carolina is the prohibitive favorite, I think Florida State probably has the second best chance. Hear me out: Duke is playing without Ryan Kelly, which means the Plumlees and Hairston are it inside; factor in a history of ignoring the conference tournament for North Carolina combined with Kendall Marshall feeling “tired,” and I think you’ve got a recipe for a team not from North Carolina to win the ACC Tournament for the first time since Maryland in 2004.
I also expect strong runs from bubble teamers NC State and Miami, as both try to secure their at-large hopes with another marquee win.
  1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) – It’s funny how the difference between a successful season can come down to one game. Had North Carolina lost to Duke at Cameron, people would’ve pointed to the Tar Heels’ lofty preseason expectations and how they came up short. Instead, Roy Williams’ squad finally showed the world just why it was ranked so high early in the season. Kendall Marshall hit shots, the defense clicked and the game felt over by the first media timeout. Now the Tar Heels have the inside track for a one-seed, owning the head-to-head victory with Michigan State that will definitely come in handy. There are still legitimate questions about North Carolina’s intensity, but if that intensity is in the ballpark of Saturday night opponents should be scared. Don’t pencil the Tar Heels into the Final Four before seeing the ACC Tournament. This team’s worst enemy until the final weekend will be itself. One person in particular to keep you eye on is Marshall. He was snubbed from first-team All-ACC (he missed by two votes), so I expect him to come out aggressively Friday. He’s also shows recent offensive improvement, coming up with two of his best performances of the year in rivalry games against NC State and Duke. When he’s taking and hitting open looks, the Tar Heels are impossible to guard.
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ACC Afternoon Five: 03.07.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 7th, 2012

Technical difficulties kept us from getting this up this morning. So here goes… an Afternoon Five.

  1. Tallahassee Democrat: Deividas Dulkys got a pretty special family night surprise when his family from Lithuania surprised him the day before the game by showing up at his girlfriend’s apartment. Dulkys had quite the showing at the game including aunts from Chicago and his host family from Nevada, but no one told him that his parents and sisters were going to make the trip across the globe to see him play at Florida State for the first time. Stepping back a little, the Seminoles are also looking at their best chance to win the ACC Championship in program history.
  2. Wilmington Star News: Speaking of special senior nights, Ty Walker‘s was supposed to be one of redemption. After three years of falling short of expectations and an indefinite suspension that kept him out for the first semester, his senior night was supposed to represent the new leaf he turned over this year. On the basketball court he was more active than ever, blocking shots with reckless abandon and fitting in surprisingly well for his first few games back. “I know people aren’t always going to be satisfied […] but at least I gave them something,” Walker noted. His mom even surprised him by flying across the country for his senior night last week. This article from Brett Friedlander gets at Walker’s side of the story.
  3. Culpepper Star-Exponent: On the heels of the New York Times look at one of college basketball’s vaguest advantages, Whitelaw Reid finds a specific case. Now without seeing more data, I’m a little skeptical. The variable is what brand of basketball teams use. The home teams choose the ball. Virginia uses Nike basketballs; Sammy Zeglinski likes Wilson. The evidence (besides Zeglinski saying it has a “spongy feel”) is that two of the senior’s best games came against Maryland, a team that uses Wilson balls. As Reid points out, the NCAA Tournament also uses Wilson balls, so we should get at least one more data point to evaluate Zeglinski’s claim.
  4. Raleigh New & Observer: It’s a speculation time of year: March Madness, the NFL Draft and that sports purgatory before the NBA Playoffs and baseball season’s starts. It’s also about time to start talking about who is leaving college for the NBA. As Caulton Tudor points out, 13 of 15 All-ACC selections were underclassmen. I don’t really agree with Tudor’s rankings. Maybe I’m naive, but I think Terrell Stoglin will stick it out at least one more year in College Park. He’s far from a sure bet, and needs to show a wider range of skills to attract first round eyes. The same would apply for Glen Rice, Jr., but his indefinite suspension will definitely be a factor. I think the sure-fire departures are Harrison Barnes, John Henson and CJ Leslie. Who knows with Austin Rivers? If he gets a lottery promise, I expect him to leave (which seems likely considering the dearth of good guards this year). Still, this is something that will become very important in a few weeks.
  5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Congratulations Brian Gregory, Mark Turgeon, Jim Larranaga and Mark Gottfried. You finished your rookie year in the ACC. For many coaches, the second year is the toughest, but Turgeon and Gregory were trying to build up programs left in disarray after Gary Williams and Paul Hewitt’s respective departures. Larranaga has plenty of talent, but he only should lose DeQuan Jones and Malcolm Grant from an already talented team; Gottfried’s team will return plenty of firepower and boasts the top recruiting class in the conference. Factor in an extra year of experience against the league titans, and we should expect more success from the conference as a whole next year.
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ACC Morning Five: 03.06.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 6th, 2012

  1. theACC.com: You probably already knew this, but the ACC released its All-ACC teams yesterday headlined by Tyler Zeller (unanimous) and Mike Scott (nearly unanimous). Tomorrow the league will announce its individual awards and we’ll release our own conference awards. The biggest snubs were Kendall Marshall (Harrison Barnes edged him out by two points to make the first team) and Bernard James (who somehow lost to Mason Plumlee).
  2. Streaking the Lawn: Well, he wasn’t snubbed but Mike Scott definitely wasn’t given his due by one or two voters. He finished two points (probably two second-team selections) from being a unanimous first-team selection. Props to Tim Mulholland for taking the only known offender, Caulton Tudor, to task for the omission. You’re welcome to choose Tyler Zeller as your Player of the Year. I waffled between him and Scott more times than I can count. But you can’t leave Scott off the first team. That’s just ridiculous. It’s almost as ridiculous as this headline: “Great Scott Sinks Terps in OT.”
  3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Tim Tucker sat down with John Swofford for a pretty interesting interview. For those keeping score at home, Swofford called college athletics a “business” twice during the conversation. He also reaffirmed his support for a four-team football playoff and keeping the NCAA tournament at 68 teams amidst discussion of the ACC’s new TV contract renegotiation and the recent NCAA violation issues. All in all, the interview gave a favorable impression of Swofford.
  4. Charlotte Observer: Luke DeCock looks at coaches’ “motivating moments.” Every coach has his own style: Mike Krzyzewski berates his team with a fire (and tongue) you’d never expect from his interview demeanor (or maybe it’s Krzyzewski interviews with a mild manner you’d never expect from his on-court persona); Roy Williams keeps things under control most of the time, but he loses his temper with the best of them. As NC State’s CJ Williams pointed out, “All coaches are pretty much the same […] when it comes to yelling.”
  5. Fayetteville Observer: Harrison Barnes keeps a list. It’s a list of his goals shaped like an inverted pyramid with “National Championship” sitting at the top. This sort of story is the reason I never doubt that Barnes will have a long, successful professional career. I’m still not sure whether he’s a go-to guy or “just” a 10-year starter in the League, but someone who works this hard to reach his goals will reach many of them.

EXTRA: In semi-ACC-related news, Syracuse is back in the news for all the wrong reasons. Charles Robinson and Pat Forde caught wind that the Orange have been playing team members who failed drug tests. There were at least 10 former players involved, and the NCAA is aware of the problem. I’m not sure what exactly could become of this, but certainly, it’s never good to associate your brand with drugs. Still, many of the infractions are beyond the NCAA’s statute of limitations.

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ACC Morning Five: 03.04.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 5th, 2012

  1. Winston-Salem Journal: Friday it was confirmed that senior Ty Walker was kicked off Wake Forest’s team for “an unspecified violation of athletics-department rules.” Looking at Walker’s career as a whole, the dismissal isn’t surprising in the least. But it did feel like he turned a page on the court after coming back from a suspension last semester. His mom even flew across the country for his senior night. That’s how I lost the forest through the trees. I’m not going to rip Walker for lack of effort; nor am I going to rip Jeff Bzdelik for the punishment. In the end, it seems like a sad but fitting end to the former five-star recruit’s career.
  2. Blogger So Dear: Speaking of Wake Forest, this is an honest take on the school’s basketball program, assessing blame where it’s due. I would be a little harsher on Bzdelik for the last couple of years, but I also think he deserves next year to show what he can do with no offcourt distractions and a couple of recruiting classes he brought in himself.
  3. Atlanta Journal Constitution: The ACC Tournament is back in Atlanta for the sixth time this year. But as Tim Tucker points out, it’s probably going to be more difficult for Atlanta to attract the conference tournament after Pittsburgh and Syracuse deepen the ACC’s footprint in the north. Personally, I’m very happy the conference decided on Philips Arena, which seats just under 20,000 people, instead of the Georgia Dome (where the tournament was supposed to be originally), which has a full capacity of over 70,000 (though that was significantly reduced the two times the ACC Tournament took place there). The bottom line is that this year is Atlanta’s chance to sell the conference on the Philips Arena experience in order to compete with Madison Square Garden or the Verizon Center down the road.
  4. Fox Sports Florida: The ACC desperately needs Miami and/or NC State to step up this weekend. The conference is looking squarely at four NCAA bids if the Hurricanes and Wolfpack meet early exits. If not for a season sweep of Miami, Mark Gottfried’s squad would be in some serious trouble (and Miami would probably be in a much stronger position for an at-large bid). But the fact is that both teams have very weak resumes and need a good win to push the ACC to five bids.
  5. Burlington Times-News: I’m officially tired of these articles bemoaning the lost days of a great ACC. The facts are simple: The ACC is down right now, and most of the dip is due to a coincidence that left eight of the 12 member schools looking for new coaches over the last couple of years. That’s it. Combine that with back-to-back titles from Tobacco Road and you have a recipe for the Duke – North Carolina rivalry overshadowing an under-performing league. It’s true that the hype for the rivalry always made other ACC fans cringe, but give the new coaches some time. As they build successful programs, ESPN will give more air time to other schools.

EXTRA: Here’s the ACC Tournament bracket. I think Miami and NC State have very good chances to win two games and Wake Forest has its best chance to win a game for the first time since 2007.

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2012 ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Posted by mpatton on March 2nd, 2012

With the ACC Tournament quickly approaching with one game separating everyone from Atlanta. Right now that means there’s a real traffic jam of schools going for the fourth seed (Virginia, Miami, NC State and Clemson) and the ninth seed (Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest). Below is a chart that hopefully makes sense of everything. A big shout-out to Patrick Stevans, who put together the scenarios.

Warning: it gets pretty complicated.

ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

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