1. ESPN: Despite almost everyone saying Tony Parker will not go to Duke, the Blue Devils seem to always be on his list. This is a pretty interesting article on Parker and his family going through the pros and cons of some of the schools he’s still considering. Parker’s biggest knock on Duke seems to be a concern about developing bigs. While I see the recent evidence, I think it’s also worth pointing out the successful Duke big men (cut directly out of Parker’s mold) like Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer and Shelden Williams. I definitely see where his unease is coming from though.
2. ACC Sports Journal: This is good stuff from Barry Jacobs on players leaving early for the NBA Draft. Austin Rivers is hiring an agent, but the choices of some other talented underclassmen have yet to come to light. It’s become a fact of life — top talent rarely stays four years (Tyler Zeller is the exception). We’ll definitely have some more draft coverage as players declare.
3. SBNation: This is a solid article on North Carolina’s disappointing finish with a closer look at Harrison Barnes. It’s still impossible for me to tell about Barnes’ pro prospects: He’s looked great in flashes (he hit four of his five field goals against Kansas in a two-minute stretch), but he disappeared in the second half. His numbers look the same as last year, but his 40-point outbursts and clutch moments are missing.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: JT Thompson is transferring from Virginia Tech. After two straight season-ending knee injuries, he’ll leave the Hokies with a degree “and a lifetime of friends.” Thompson is transferring to be closer to his young daughter in order to become a full-time parent. The move shouldn’t kill the Virginia Tech frontcourt, as it still returns Cadarian Raines, Dorian Finney-Smith and CJ Barksdale in addition to bringing in a couple of freshmen.
5. Testudo Times: With Terrell Stoglin coming back to College Park, it’s time to look at his season and prognosis. It’s clear Stoglin and Mark Turgeon have to work out their differences; it’s also clear that unless a lot changes over the summer (really I think it would be his senior season before he’d be able to run it effectively, but I’d like to see him get some time at the one). The good news for Maryland fans is Stoglin wants to improve his draft stock, and that should be mostly in line with Turgeon’s vision.

1. Washington Post: This isn’t directly linked to the ACC (if you’re looking for a more explicit, albeit indirect connection, be my guest), but I think John Feinstein hits the nail on the head regarding officiating. Officials are refereeing too many games. Period. I thought the officiating in Sunday’s Elite Eight games was no different: travels went uncalled and charges and blocks felt decided by reputation. Feinstein argues the NCAA should pay officials more and mandate fewer games. I whole-heartedly agree, though I think the hardest part is how to regulate the regular season pay of officials, especially those from smaller conferences. This is a problem, and I expect the NCAA to at least look into it over the offseason.
2. Tobacco Road Blues: Amidst many (including myself) calling for Mike Krzyzewski to win ACC Coach of the Year, at least one Duke fan thinks the polar opposite. The argument: (1) Coach K refused to change his defensive system despite knowing his team’s weaknesses (very similar to the criticism Roy Williams took during 2009-10 for not adapting following Ty Lawson’s departure); (2) he didn’t give Michael Gbinije enough run; and (3) Krzyzewksi didn’t give Quinn Cook enough run. I’m going to have a longer response to this later, but I can see the arguments.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: With reports piling up that Austin Rivers will be leaving Duke for the NBA draft, Rick Bonnell hypothesizes that Rivers may be better off in the NBA anyway. I’m not sure I agree that Rivers’ personality caused problems in Durham. It’s clear he clashed at times with Coach K, but nothing ever really boiled over. I also agree Rivers’ game is very suited for the NBA — especially if a team gets someone to reconstruct his jumper during the offseason.
4. Testudo Times: I think this is a pretty reasonable look at Alex Len and his future, though I think Dave Tucker is underselling Len’s shot-blocking ability and its importance going forward (he could be a John Henson type of player as he gets more acclimated and stronger). I also think it’s important to temper expectations about Len’s offensive production. Yes, bigs generally make a huge leap between their first two seasons, but Len never struck me as a dominant offensive player. He’s definitely a guy who can average 10 points per game (give or take a couple — many coming off rebounds), but he’s got to develop a reliable 15-footer before he’ll be a serious offensive threat.
5. Yahoo! Sports: North Carolina played 32 minutes of great basketball. Somehow the Tar Heels managed to run the offense smoothly without Kendall Marshall. Sure there were signs like blown fast breaks and intercepted passes, but for the most part the Tar Heel offense ran very well, that is, until Bill Self switched to a triangle and two defensive scheme. The hybrid defensive scheme simultaneously locked down Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock, while causing Tyler Zeller and John Henson to virtually disappear. A lot of people will rip Roy Williams for his team’s inability to deal with the switch. But this team doesn’t have elite shot creators (despite what Barnes’ projected skills were). They kill you in transition and with unparalleled passing from Marshall. Without him, it’s pretty surprising Williams had his team playing as well as they did. Still it was fascinating how effective the defensive switch was (only allowing three points in the last eight and a half minutes of play).

1. Tampa Bay Times: It looks like Leonard Hamilton‘s reported “lobbying” has stirred up the Florida State athletic department’s checkbook. Currently Hamilton makes $1.5 million a year plus incentives (for instance this year he earned an extra $175,000 for winning the ACC Tournament and being named ACC Coach of the Year). He definitely deserves the raise. Since he arrived in Tallahassee, Hamilton has made a Seminole program with very few historical highs relevant. While Florida State’s early NCAA tournament departure was unfortunate, the team’s continued success will only enhance his ability to recruit.
2. Blogger So Dear: It sounds like major unrest is brewing over at Wake Forest. Days after Tony Chennault announced his transfer, rumors are swirling that Carson Desrosiers (which sources confirmed to Blogger So Dear) and Anthony Fields (unconfirmed, along with an even more distressing rumor that Travis McKie may be asking to transfer too) want out of Winston-Salem too. We will definitely keep everything updated, but suffice to say the Demon Deacons’ roster would be decimated if those three leave. If you’re keeping score at home, these three potential transfers would make nine players to transfer or depart (for reasons other than graduation) under Jeff Bzdelik’s tenure.
3. ESPN Chicago: This probably isn’t super surprising, but longtime Duke assistant Chris Collins is interested in a head coaching gig, and Illinois would be on “the right fit” list. Because of Collins’ ties with Chicago–his dad coached the Bulls, he grew up there, and he currently recruits there for Duke–rumors about the vacancy have swirled since Bruce Weber left. Obviously, if Collins is offered the job (he reportedly hasn’t been contacted yet, but I would be surprised if the Illini hadn’t at least put out feelers to his agent), I think he will take it. That’s a tough first head coaching job though, with some serious expectations.
4. Durham Herald-Sun: Speaking of Duke and not surprises, Mason Plumlee is looking into possibly entering this year’s NBA Draft. Currently he’s gathering information to get an idea on where he would go, and how much an extra year could help or hurt him. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express seems optimistic about Plumlee’s NBA future, though noted that coming back for his senior season wouldn’t hurt either.
5. Hampton Roads Daily-Press: One big knock on Virginia this year was the team’s dearth of quality wins. Obviously, the Cavaliers couldn’t control their conference draw, but a team’s nonconference schedule is one that comes up on Selection Sunday (just ask Seth Greenberg). Tony Bennett pointed out that the nonconference strength of schedule wasn’t helped by losing to TCU (which kept Virginia from playing Marquette). But Bennett is looking at adding some meat to next year’s schedule, starting with a home-and-home series with Tennessee.

EXTRA: If you’re not watching Bomani & Jones it’s easily worth the ten minutes a week. Where else are you going to get interviews with Julius Hodge and Joe in Raleigh (an avid Duke fan and notorious sports talk show caller)?

1. WxMoose: After Matt Norlander needlessly ripped NC State fans for celebrating a victory that “a large subset” of the “many people [who] had the Wolfpack getting past San Diego State” also called, one Wolfpack fan had enough (actually, I’m sure a lot did). So he wrote an open apology to the media for Wolfpack nation. From my perspective, I’m not sure why Norlander felt the need to throw his jab after NC State made the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2005 (in only its second tournament appearance since).
2. Orlando Sentinel: After rumors surfaced yesterday that Leonard Hamilton was “lobbying hard” for the Illinois job, the Worldwide Leader cited a source saying just the opposite. Hamilton always plays things like this close to the vest, so if he is looking at other jobs I don’t expect we would hear a whole lot about it. While I would be shocked if he left, Florida State’s general disinterest in basketball could definitely push him to the edge (winning costs money).
3. Washington Post: Speaking of potential game-changing departures, Terrell Stoglin announced he will be returning to Maryland. This is definitely the best for everyone involved, as Stoglin still needs to add a dimension to his game (i.e., facilitating) to help make up for his size and move onto more NBA draft boards. He’s also critical for Mark Turgeon, who will need his scoring next year, even accounting for improvements from Nick Faust and Alex Len.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia made its money on the defensive end of the floor this year, but fell apart down the stretch, allowing opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games (compared to two times in its first 28). How much of that was the toll of critical injuries and transfers? It’s hard to tell. Some of it may have been the competition, which was much steeper than the rest of the Cavaliers’ schedule. Regardless, Tony Bennett has a lot of tape to watch in order to figure out how Florida was able to be so dominant against the Cavaliers in the second half.
5. Blogger So Dear: I’m a couple of days late on this, but Wake Forest lost its sixth player to something other than graduation under Jeff Bzdelik on Tuesday. Tony Chennault has decided to transfer. Chennault claims the decision “was a personal choice and has nothing to do with basketball.” But considering his lack of legal/academic trouble, there’s not a whole lot else it could be. If it was basketball-related, Chennault may have been worried about playing time with Codi Miller McIntyre coming to Winston-Salem next year.

1. Fox Sports Carolinas: Andrew Jones does a solid job breaking down Duke‘s struggles this year. The article is specifically relevant on the end of the season, as I think the “lack of spirit” only settled in after the North Carolina game at Duke. But the issues are definitely there. I’d probably order my list like this (in order of greatest to least importance): (1) lack of a leader, (2) defense, (3) reliance on one player, (4) reliance on the three, (5) point guard issues. Some things are interconnected. The depressing thing for Duke fans is things may get worse before they get better depending on who stays and who goes this year.
2. Duke Basketball Report: Barry Jacobs took a look at the scoring decline in the ACC. Since 2001 when the league peaked–averaging 79.3 points a game–the scoring has been steadily dropping to this year’s low of 68.5. In 2001 the league’s lowest scorer (Florida State) actually averaged higher scoring than this year’s league average. Part of the recent drop can be associated with coaching turnover and conference expansion creating diluted talent and new styles (see: Boston College and Virginia, respectively). The rest is probably a part of the national trend of offenses getting more efficient while slowing down. I hope someone analyzes the roots of this phenomenon.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: Want to know one reason NC State looks a lot better as of late? Richard Howell is seeing more playing time. Howell and fellow frontmen CJ Leslie and DeShawn Painter all improved significantly, but Howell’s tendency to pick up quick fouls kept him off the court during the regular season. Howell’s presence is going to be extra-critical this weekend against Kansas, as he’s a significantly better rebounder than Painter. The Wolfpack will need his presence on the glass to help limit the Jayhawks to one shot.
4. Testudo Times: Ben Broman over at Testudo Times took a look at Nick Faust‘s season and very promising prognosis. Faust started the year horrendously on offense–largely because he was forced to take too large a role on an offense with too few weapons–but his talent has always been evident. Multiple people have said this throughout the year (especially down the stretch when things started clicking for the freshman): next year Faust could easily find himself on an All-ACC team. Frankly, he should probably find himself on two if his defense continues to improve and he gets his offensive mojo back.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: This is a very interesting interview with Brian Gregory. Probably the most insightful comment is on one thing he learned about the ACC, which was the physical nature of the conference. For a long time the Big East and Big Ten were known as the tough leagues (they still are), but the ACC is definitely becoming a tougher conference (Duke, Florida State, Miami and Virginia are very physical teams). I also thought Gregory’s reflection on his team was interesting even after taking it with a grain of “coach speak” salt.

With Kendall Marshall‘s status looking more and more like he won’t play this weekend, I tried to project his impact using statistics to evaluate North Carolina‘s prognosis without him. Using play-by-play data from North Carolina’s athletic site and StatSheet.com, I charted the Tar Heels’ offensive efficiency with and without Marshall on the floor. I only used games against at-large NCAA Tournament teams since Dexter Strickland’s injury.

How Will Marshall's Injury Affect North Carolina?

Unfortunately, there’s very little to be drawn from the data with Marshall out of the game. The issue is that Roy Williams has been playing his star point guard 35 minutes or more most games, leaving Stilman White with very few possessions. Sometimes that makes White look ineffective; sometimes it makes him look like a savant.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Miami Herald: In case you missed it, Miami‘s season ended with a bunch of bricks and a quiet crowd of 1,649 people ready to watch in person. The Hurricanes got throttled by Minnesota, giving up easy baskets on one end before settling for low-percentage jumpers on the other. There’s always a danger in the NIT that teams won’t get up for the games, but I thought Miami had something to prove after narrowly missing the Big Dance. Instead, Kenny Kadji played horribly (he’s combined to go 5-27 from the field in the postseason), Reggie Johnson only managed to grab two rebounds, and only Rion Brown provided much energy. Assuming everyone returns and stays eligible, next year is Miami’s year.
2. Oxford Public-Ledger: This article does a great job capturing the ups and downs of March Madness, juxtaposing the NCAA’s money-maker and its suddenness with the journalists hoping to cover it. Austin Rivers‘ quotes from after Duke’s loss to Lehigh are tough to read. This is a unique article and is worth a read.
3. Independent Weekly: For a more long-winded take on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and media involvement, look no further than Adam Sobsey. He captures the rollercoaster of emotions the North Carolina team rode following its easy win over Creighton. He also rips the NCAA’s media policies and rightly so. After opening the North Carolina locker room to the press, Roy Williams sent the media out to tell the team about Kendall Marshall‘s injury. Needless to say the group was shell-shocked. But because of the NCAA rule, Williams had to re-open the locker room to the “vulturous mob rapacity” (Sobsey’s style is always easy to spot) for another 10 minutes.
4. TarHeelBlue.com: Speaking of Marshall’s injury this article offers a great tribute to the Tar Heel point guard.
   

   It’s more than that because it impacts a person we’ve grown to love. It helps that he throws head-shaking passes, but that’s not all of it. He’s someone who occasionally hangs out in the Carolina Basketball Museum, just to soak in some Tar Heel history. He signs every autograph after every game at every hour into the night, and somehow even seems to enjoy it. He came to Carolina basketball camp as a kid and cherished the pictures, just like so many of us have done. We know we can’t pass it like him. But maybe, watching the way he plays, you can believe that we might appreciate it like him, if we were wearing that jersey.

5. Associated Press (via Washington Post): The news isn’t directly related to the ACC anymore, but former Georgia Tech great Bobby Cremins announced his retirement from the College of Charleston. Earlier this year, he took an indefinite medical leave for exhaustion. Coaching always took a toll on Cremins, which likely led to the six-year hiatus he took between being pushed out at Georgia Tech and returning to the Southern Conference for an encore (he started his coaching career at Appalachian State).

EXTRA: Joe Posnanski took some time to absorb the first weekend of the NCAA tournament from the neutral confines of Las Vegas. He chronicles one of the two biggest events (with the Super Bowl being the other) for most sports books, talking with oddsmakers and bettors alike.

1. Orlando Sentinel and Tallahassee Democrat: Coley Harvey’s post from Friday is looking prophetic after the Seminoles collapsed (with a little help from bad luck to boot) down the stretch against Cincinnati. For the first time since their incredible turnaround — which is worth reading about too — Leonard Hamilton’s team looked complacent. The Bearcats out-hustled them down the stretch, including the forcing of a couple untimely turnovers. Still, don’t lose sight of the forest through the trees: The fact that this Florida State team was in the Final Four discussion is a tribute to the incredible job Hamilton did with this team.
2. Sports Illustrated: Florida State may be gone, but the ACC has another conference Cinderella in NC State. Last night Hubert Davis (a North Carolina graduate) picked the Wolfpack as his team outside of the top two seed lines to make the Final Four. Given that you don’t want to put too much weight on late night TV comments, but it’s shocking Mark Gottfried’s team is in that discussion (frankly, it’s a little surprising the Wolfpack made the NCAA Tournament at all).
3. CBSSports.com: Jeff Borzello checks in on the status of Virginia’s program under Tony Bennett. While I am much less optimistic about next year, his comments definitely alleviate my concerns about Bennett’s ability to recruit top-100 guys with his system. Those concerns won’t totally evaporate until Bennett puts together several years of solid classes. As for next year, losing Mike Scott alone will be devastating. The Cavaliers’ goal in 2012-13 should be to compete in conference play and make the NIT.
4. CBSSports.com: Unless you locked yourself in a lead box last night, you probably heard that Kendall Marshall broke his wrist in UNC’s win over Creighton. Gary Parrish found out that Marshall will have surgery today and is questionable for Friday’s game against Ohio. He’ll be evaluated after the surgery, but it’s tough to envision a way that Marshall plays this weekend. The good news for the Tar Heels is their first game is against a #13 seed, and John Henson is healthy again. The bad news is that Marshall is the Tar Heels’ most important player.
5. Washington Post: Liz Clarke sat down with Mike Gminski to talk about Alex Len. It sounds like Gminski is pretty high on the Maryland center’s prospects going forward, especially once Len gets his English down. He also brings up a good point that the biggest increase in productivity for big men normally comes between freshman and sophomore year (see: CJ Leslie). I still don’t know if I see Len as an all-conference game changer next year, but he should definitely only get better as he gets in better shape and more accustomed to his new team.

1. Tallahassee Democrat: This is a pretty cool article about the last time Florida State won a basketball championship. That was 1991 in the Metro Conference (the year before the school joined the ACC), and the Seminoles were led by another clutch guard named Charlie Ward. This Florida State team doesn’t have the NBA talent of those teams from the early 1990s, but it’s coming together at the right time.
2. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Miami is down about missing the NCAA Tournament, but the Hurricanes have something to prove in the NIT (where they garnered a #2 seed). Luckily, Durand Scott was reinstated by the NCAA, though his presence was sorely missed in Miami’s loss to Florida State in Atlanta (only to make matters worse, it was a game that probably would have put the Hurricane resume over the top). I hope the players mean it; I want to see Miami with a chip on its shoulder, both in the NIT and regular season next year.
3. Washington Post: Seth Greenberg is looking to possibly flesh out his roster a little bit this offseason. While he’s apparently OK with adding a junior college transfer, Greenberg made things very clear: “We’re not gonna take a warm body, we’re not gonna take a guy that’s gonna win us a game. I want to take a guy who has a chance to graduate.”
4. Soaring To Glory: Here’s a solid post on things to expect from Boston College next year. I think the author hits the nail on the head for the most part — especially on the team’s conditioning issues late in the season — though I think more emphasis should be given to guys Lonnie Jackson and Patrick Heckmann (whose fall was precipitated by a bad bout with mono). I think Ryan Anderson will develop, but he’ll need a second and third option more than anything next year.
5. Wilmington Star News: Brett Friedlander thinks NC State could be poised for a deep tournament run if it can keep focused. I have my doubts (specifically about the team’s depth), but I generally agree. The biggest thing will be avoiding the Selection Sunday hangover game the first weekend against San Diego State. The Wolfpack are capable of winning that game but will need to avoid costly turnovers and foul trouble at all costs. They also can’t get off to a slow start and need stars CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown to embrace the spotlight.

1. The Diamondback: The Maryland student newspaper doesn’t say it, but Terrell Stoglin‘s NBA draft decision comes down to whether or not he gets along with Mark Turgeon. if he does there aren’t many reasons for Stoglin to enter the draft this year, as he’s undersized and yet to show NBA-level passing or defense. However, if he’s unwilling to remain in Maryland’s program, the NBA Draft is probably the way to go (at best, I think he’s a second round pick). Stoglin is a player who would need to prove his worth in the summer league before earning a contract.
2. Testudo Times: This is a fascinating interview with  Turgeon. He talks about the ACC’s NCAA Tournament chances (even ranking the ACC talent, starting with North Carolina, Florida State, NC State and then Duke); he talks about Stoglin possibly turning pro; he even talks about life as a mid-major and his bracket. These are the kind of interviews I wish every coach would give. Sure, he carries some biases but he also carries a lot of insight. That’s better than the normal coachspeak we hear day in and day out.
3. Charlotte Observer: Despite claims that John Henson’s wrist injury won’t hurt North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament, I think Henson is especially valuable in one-and-done settings where there’s less time for opponents to prepare. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I would expect Henson’s non-conference effect to be much higher than his conference effect, where teams have more tape and general preparation time for the shot-blocking machine. Kendall Marshall may be the Tar Heels’ most valuable offensive player, but Henson allows guards to overplay the perimeter, knowing the lanky junior is available inside to swat field goal attempts.
4. CSNWashington: I don’t think Chris Knoche gives Tyler Zeller enough credit for his conference performance, but I do think he captures Mike Scott‘s importance very well. I’ll be surprised if Scott isn’t the first senior whose name is called during the NBA Draft. I’m not a draft expert, but Scott’s polished mid-range game is worth a late first-round pick alone.
5. Orlando Sentinel: [Author’s note: How can Florida State/Tallahassee be responsible for T Pain and Creed?] Apparently Roy Jones, Jr., released a rap video complimenting Florida State‘s recent basketball relevance. Seriously, with lyrics like “Step onto the court, hit you with a three, crossover eyes on me. … Jump shot in your face, call me Dulkys,” how could you go wrong?

EXTRA: Forbes has an explanation for the declining attendance in college basketball. Patrick Rishe’s argument rests on two main points: a lack of talent, and a lack of fan connection. I agree — somewhat — with both of his points, although I’d add the increasing popularity of the NBA into the first point, and emphasize high definition and game availability over both points. Even with shortened careers, we live in an age of social media where athletes can interact directly with fans for the first time; the one-and-done rule also increased the amount of talent on the floor for local colleges. The fan connection point is legitimate and true for smaller schools and bigger schools alike.