On NC State and Gambling: Why the Wolfpack Defense Has to Improve, Or Else

Posted by mpatton on January 10th, 2013

Matt Patton (@rise_and_fire) is an RTC correspondent and an ACC microsite writer. He filed this report after NC State’s win over Georgia Tech last night in Raleigh.

NC State is probably the second best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack are experienced and talented. But they’re also a mixed bag thanks to their less than stellar defensive efficiency. The Wolfpack is a team of runs on both ends of the floor. These aren’t the normal runs of basketball cliche, they’re the runs of a degenerate gambler. On defense the gambler is often Rodney Purvis leaking out before NC State secures the rebound. Nearly two-thirds of the time, it’s a good gamble because the Wolfpack corrals the rebound. Otherwise NC State’s defense struggles to get reset, and the opponent gets a second chance with the odds in its favor. On offense the gambler is generally Lorenzo Brown or CJ Leslie looking for the home run play but instead turning the ball over.

Rodney Purvis is already an emotional leader for NC State. (Photo: Ethan Hyman / Raleigh News & Observer)

Rodney Purvis is already an emotional leader for NC State. (Photo: Ethan Hyman / Raleigh News & Observer)

Those runs outlasted Boston College and Georgia Tech in the final minutes. Experience, talent and conditioning helped too. Those runs almost brought the Wolfpack back from what looked like a blowout against Michigan. Those runs never made an appearance in Oklahoma State’s rout of the Wolfpack. The runs come at a defensive cost, but NC State’s offense is elite because of its defensive gambles. It is unstoppable in transition for four reasons: the Purvis leak, Brown is a terror leading the break, Leslie runs the floor as anyone without the last name “Zeller,” and the icing on the cake is Wood trailing after that. Long story short, everyone but Richard Howell (one of the best defensive rebounders in the ACC) is a great option. Lots of options with a capable floor general leads to transition success better or comparable to any team in the country.

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ACC M5: 01.10.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 10th, 2013

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  1. CBSSports.com:The biggest news of yesterday was that Ryan Kelly‘s foot injury is significant. It’s the same foot he hurt at the end of last season, requiring surgery and a lengthy layoff. Sources told Jeff Goodman that Duke hopes Kelly will be back in two weeks, but it’s more realistic that it will be closer to four weeks. While the exact impact on Duke and its rotation remains to be seen, it will be significant. Last year with Kelly out, the mighty Blue Devils offense sputtered to a stop (it doesn’t help that Kelly was playing his best ball of the season before re-injuring the foot). The only real silver lining is that the young guys on the team (namely Alex Murphy and Amile Jefferson) should see a few more minutes.
  2. The Sporting News: As the saying goes, “hindsight is always 20/20.” Unfortunately, Ryan Fagan didn’t have hindsight when he wrote this article. Fagan acknowledged that it was possible the Cavaliers would lose to Wake Forest Wednesday night. Even if North Carolina is down, there’s often a pretty big emotional crash after beating Duke or UNC (see: Virginia Tech in 2010-11). Also, Virginia is going to lose some head-scratchers when the shots aren’t falling just because fewer possessions make each brick more important than in a faster-paced game.
  3. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon is currently using two point guards, and it’s working out pretty well (the Terps’ home loss to Florida State notwithstanding). Pe’Shon Howard distributes, Seth Allen scores. Allen is clearly the point guard of the future, but his forced three in the waning seconds against Florida State show he’s still got a ways to go. In the meantime, Turgeon can rely mostly on Howard as Allen matures. My guess is Turgeon would love some of Allen’s aggressive nature to rub off on Howard too.
  4. Duke Basketball Report: Barry Jacobs took a look at the longest winning streaks (against a single conference opponent) of the ACC in light of Duke beating Wake Forest for the sixth straight time last week. The longest streak ever was Duke over Virginia, which Duke won 16 straight times following the beatdown that the Cavaliers and Ralph Sampson gave the Blue Devils in the 1983 ACC Tournament. But North Carolina is knocking on the Blue Devils’ door, as the Tar Heels currently hold a 10-win streak over Miami and a 13-game win streak over NC State (both of which, it says here, will likely come to an end this season).
  5. NC State Technician: Speaking of NC State, the student newspaper at the school put together midseason grades for the Wolfpack. Rightfully, Andrew Scheutt gives major props to Richard Howell, who hasn’t necessarily been NC State’s most valuable player, but he’s improved dramatically even since his huge leap in production last season. He’s shooting outrageously well, rebounding even better, and he’s quit fouling (his Achilles’ heel last season).
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ACC M5: 01.09.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 9th, 2013

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  1. NBC Sports: Rob Dauster nails why Virginia was able to shut North Carolina down over the weekend. I don’t necessarily agree with his first point (that Virginia didn’t take bad shots), but the fact that the Cavaliers showed no interest in offensive rebounding made up for any bad shots that could have lead to a Tar Heel fast break. Tony Bennett prepared his team to shut Roy Williams’ break down, and it worked well. The good news for North Carolina is that most teams won’t be able to match up as well in transition (with the initial or secondary breaks). But the bad news is that this team just isn’t as good at running the system as most of Williams’ better teams.
  2. Run the Floor: Moving down Tobacco Road to Durham, Duke fans have cause for concern. Mason Plumlee‘s free throw percentage has been trending downward since the beginning of the season (and continued its inaccurate nature against Clemson last night). Duke fans will never know whether it was a lack of confidence (possibly thanks to an airballed free throw against Ohio State) or just the fact that he has reverted to the same line-drive arc. Poor free throw shooting may kill his NPOY campaign, but as long as Plumlee stays aggressive in other aspects of the game, the Blue Devils should be just fine thanks to the number of other pieces surrounding him.
  3. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of the pieces surrounding Mason Plumlee, Ben Swain paid tribute to the great season Quinn Cook has been having (in honor of Cook’s bizarre zero-point, 14-assist game against Wake Forest). Cook summarily dropped 27 points, six assists and grabbed five boards against Clemson last night. But it’s pretty amazing to look at the turnaround Cook has seen since last year when he was mostly an afterthought, especially on defense where he was prone to frequent lapses. Cook is one of Duke’s best players and may be its most important in terms of the stability he provides the Blue Devils. Not many people saw that coming.
  4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: On the topic of defensive lapses, Virginia Tech has had plenty of them. Where Seth Greenberg generally made the Hokies into a respectable defensive team (a physical one, if nothing else), James Johnson’s Hokies are quite poor on defense so far this season. They’re allowing 74.6 points a game and are ranked a full 180 spots below their average defensive ranking (#50) by Ken Pomeroy since joining the ACC. The problems? Bad interior defense, not forcing turnovers, and a failure to rebound.
  5. Washington Post: When people talked about Dez Wells as the difference-maker for Maryland in the preseason, I tried not to scoff because he had only joined the team in August. How is that enough time to get to know new teammates, much less fit in with them? But Wells has proven the believers right with his play so far. He’s already one of if not the most outspoken leader on the team, and when the Terrapins need a bucket in a tough situation, it’s never a bad guess that the ball will be in Wells’ hands. Props.
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NCAA Releases RPI: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly for the ACC

Posted by mpatton on January 8th, 2013

The NCAA on Tuesday released its first RPI ratings as conference season kicks off across the country. The news is mixed for the ACC, but it definitely looks like six (maybe seven) ACC teams will be fighting for NCAA bids this year.

The Good

  • Duke is tops in the land, and it’s probably not close. Between beating top-tier non-conference foes and Mike Krzyzewski’s “gaming” of the system with solid mid-majors at neutral sites (see: Davidson), Duke could probably sustain a loss or two (especially on the road) without dropping in the rankings. Right now the Blue Devils are as close to a lock for a one-seed as you can be in early January.
Miami should celebrate its RPI ranking, but there's still plenty of work to be done. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald)

Miami should celebrate its RPI ranking, but there’s still plenty of work to be done. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald)

  • Miami shockingly sits at #8 because of a perfect schedule: They haven’t lost at home, the teams they’ve lost to aren’t that bad, and they scheduled difficult enough (according to Jerry Palm, they have the third best strength of schedule in the country behind Duke and Colorado). That home win against Michigan State definitely helps a lot too, but props to Jim Larranaga for knowing how to schedule. Combine the high RPI and solid best win with the fact that the three losses came without Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson, and right now Miami feels pretty safe (assuming decent play in the ACC) come Selection Sunday.
  • NC State rounds out the top tier for the ACC, sliding into the index at #15. Playing a decent schedule (Michigan — even with the loss — on the road helped greatly) has the Wolfpack in a good place. This team doesn’t have any marquee wins, though, which needs to change before Selection Sunday. Unfortunately, as you’re about to find out, there aren’t a ton of high-profile wins to be had in conference play (especially if you’re one of the high-profile teams).

The Bad

  • North Carolina is top-50 (#42 to be exact), but let’s be real: The Tar Heels aren’t shooting for a top-50 finish. That said, this team’s struggles away from home are going to be a serious hindrance to an elite RPI assuming they continue. North Carolina still isn’t really in danger of missing the NCAAs, but starting off conference play with an uninspired loss at Virginia wasn’t a great look (to be fair, Vegas had the Tar Heels as underdogs). The double-edged silver lining for the Tar Heels is that they have the hardest possible conference schedule, so there are several marquee wins available.

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ACC M5: 01.08.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 8th, 2013

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  1. Grantland: Shane Ryan gave an update on college basketball as a whole but not surprisingly focused on the ACC. His main league points: (1) Duke is one of two dominant teams this year, along with Michigan; (2) NC State‘s ceiling is the Sweet Sixteen; and (3) Maryland looks like the second best team in the conference. My only caveats: (1) I want to see Duke win an ugly game in a hostile environment before getting too deep into “dominant” talk; (2) NC State has shown the ability to play better defense and make the Sweet Sixteen with a worse team and anything can happen at the Big Dance; and (3) Virginia Tech wasn’t really a test and we shouldn’t judge the Terrapins too concretely until the next six games happen.
  2. College Basketball Talk: Eric Angevine talked with Marcus Paige about the Tar Heels’ loss to Virginia. Paige was very complimentary of the Cavaliers on offense and defense. He pointed to Virginia’s fighting through screens and the pack-line’s ability to take away driving lanes as big parts to its defensive success. The Cavaliers not needing help on screens clearly flustered everyone on North Carolina’s team to no end (aside from Reggie Bullock, who had a great night). But the Tar Heels won’t see many defenses like that going forward, so that’s not as troubling as the number of wide open shots Virginia had thanks to running players off those screens.
  3. Charlotte Observer: Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton used to play for the same AAU team in middle school. Duke’s point guard pair’s longtime friendship definitely helps with team chemistry. It also probably played a big role in Cook’s dramatic improvement as a defender (seriously, watch some Duke tape from last year… he was one of Duke’s biggest defensive liabilities). Not to beat a dead horse, but there’s a closeness that pervades this Duke team that simply wasn’t there last year. That really close bond is also why Josh Hairston sees so many more minutes than the new, more talented, freshmen.
  4. Florida Today: Terry Whisnant is Florida State‘s best shooter. He’s part of the slew of combo guards Leonard Hamilton uses on a frequent basis, adjusting the rotation based on match-ups and who’s hot. It sounds like Whisnant would like more time, but understands his current role on the team. If the Seminoles start showing big improvements and get a couple of statement wins under their belts, that understanding may be a little less bitter. Regardless, if you’re looking for the man most likely to pull a Deividas Dulkys impersonation this season, Whisnant is your man.
  5. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Akil Mitchell was questionable for Sunday’s North Carolina – Virginia game thanks to a sprained ankle he suffered in practice. But Mitchell clearly didn’t want to watch from the sidelines, either. He gutted out the game, and played very well regardless. Interestingly, Mitchell wanted to keep his injury a secret before game time. He went as far as to tell his mother to remove a Facebook status discussing the injury. Now that the adrenaline and anti-inflammatories have worn off, don’t be surprised if Mitchell takes the next game off to let his ankle get better. But I’ll bet it was totally worth it to knock off the Tar Heels for the first time in the John Paul Jones Arena.
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Three Thoughts From Florida State’s Weekend Win at Clemson

Posted by mpatton on January 7th, 2013

Florida State dominated the first half of its game against Clemson over the weekend before the Tigers clawed their way back in the final 20 minutes to cut the deficit to three. Clemson couldn’t quite get over the hump to pull off the home win, but the game gave insights into both teams going forward.

  1. Devin Booker could be first-team All-ACC. Here, “could” implies that it is possible based on his abilities — not that it is likely to happen. Erick Green will probably steal the spot on first team thanks to his incredibly high usage and gaudy scoring numbers, but Booker looked tremendous against the Seminoles’ long, inexperienced front line. He has got a wide array of post moves, good range (though not as good as his brother’s), and the strength of an ox.
    Devin Booker is under-utilized by Clemson. (Photo Credit: IPTAY Media)

    Devin Booker is underutilized by Clemson (Credit: IPTAY Media)

    Why head coach Brad Brownell couldn’t find a way to get Booker the ball more often is beyond me. Part of the blame falls on Booker, who disappears for large stretches of the game, but much of the responsibility goes to the Clemson guards and Milton Jennings, who tried to do way too much. If the Tigers are going to finish decently this season, they have to get Booker’s usage up significantly. The ball has to run through him. He was every bit as impressive as Mason Plumlee was on Saturday by finishing with 19 points and 11 boards on 8-of-11 shooting. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC M5: 01.07.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 7th, 2013

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  1. Fought and Won One: Pack Pride writer Austin Johnson took the time to compare all ACC teams to TV shows, doubling his post as an ACC Power Rankings. If you bumped Virginia and (gasp) Boston College up a couple of notches, Miami up one, and dropped North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest I would be right there with him on the rankings. The best comparison is for Georgia Tech with Parenthood:

    Quietly putting together some really good performances but no one is really watching. Also, I don’t watch Parenthood, I just know its by the same guy who did Friday Night Lights and its apparently been very good this season if you like crying. Hopefully there’s not as much crying on GT’s team.

    He hits the nail on the head with the Yellow Jackets as a potential sleeper team in the conference. Not a great team by any means, but definitely one that should surprise a few people.

  2. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia Tech coach James Johnson got a rude introduction to ACC play Saturday. Part of the Hokies’ issue is with depth. After Seth Greenberg’s late dismissal, Virginia Tech’s recruiting class started to fall apart, leaving the Hokies short on scholarship players. Thanks to injuries two walk-ons–Christian Beyer and Will Johnston–have seen a big uptick in minutes. The two are playing big minutes for Johnson’s undermanned squad, but a feel-good story doesn’t always have good consequences. The Hokies’ depth will be one of their biggest issues all season.
  3. Raleigh News & Observer: NC State gutted out a win at Boston College Saturday. The Eagles were in it until the very end. Joe Giglio came away with three thoughts: an ugly win is still a win; props to Steve Donahue; and ACC officiating can be incredibly irritating. I agree with all three. I thought the game said much more about the Eagles than it did the Wolfpack (though it certainly brought to mind flashbacks to Sidney Lowe’s teams at least in terms of intensity). Donahue has done a very strong coaching job. He is still filling his roster with ACC-caliber players, but the team is much better than last season.
  4. Baltimore Sun: It’s hard to remember because of his struggles to start the season, but Jake Layman was Mark Turgeon’s second best recruit coming into this year. Layman’s issues on and off the court overshadowed his potential (though not his hair). Against Virginia Tech Layman finally found his groove, putting up 18 points in the first half alone. “It’s ACC time, and we all stepped up,” Layman said after the game. You don’t want to read too much into a home blowout over a mediocre Virginia Tech team, but if it lights a fire under Layman things look very good for Mark Turgeon going forward.
  5. Charlotte Observer: Like most expected Wake Forest took a beating on Saturday at Duke. Jeff Bzdelik is still trying to diagnose the symptoms as growing pains, but the “Buzz Out” t-shirts growing in popularity amongst Demon Deacon fans make it clear the fans see a different issue. Bzdelik’s problem is the growth hasn’t come to fruition. First it was this incoming class, which to be fair could still turn things around with time to mature. Now it is Shelton Mitchell (a top-50 2014 recruit). Bzdelik needs to show improvement now not later or Ron Wellman may join the movement.
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Florida State Hangs On to Win at Clemson, But Same Flaws Remain

Posted by mpatton on January 5th, 2013

Matt Patton (@rise_and_fire) is an ACC Microsite writer and RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday afternoon’s ACC clash between Florida State and Clemson in Littlejohn Coliseum.

On the first possession of its conference opener at Littlejohn Coliseum Saturday afternoon, Florida State looked like the defending conference champions. The Seminoles forced a shot clock violation with its suffocating ball pressure and two blocks near the rim. That possession fueled their fire, as the Seminoles ran out to a double-figure lead behind great shooting — specifically from Okaro White (who made three early three-point field goals) and Ian Miller (who hit both of his shots from deep). At one point Michael Snaer singlehandedly forced a Clemson turnover in the backcourt. Clemson bounced back somewhat, but still trailed by 13 at the half.

Florida State really misses Bernard James on defense.

Florida State really misses the days of the vaunted Bernard James Chris Singleton defense.

The second half was a different story. The Seminoles looked entitled, not determined. Snaer allowed the officials to frustrate him and Clemson slowly but surely climbed back into the game. The Tigers forced some untimely turnovers, hit big shots and killed FSU on the boards. Luckily for (and probably thanks to) Florida State, Milton Jennings was horrible all game. He committed five turnovers, and made several crucial defensive mistakes down the stretch. FSU escaped with a 71-66 win, but a victory doesn’t disguise the fact that Florida State’s defense was undressed in the second half. They had no answer to Devin Booker once he got the ball. Booker finished 8-of-11 from the field for 19 points and 11 boards. He looked unstoppable and Florida State’s front line looked soft or uncoordinated depending on its personnel.

That said, Florida State has some positives to take away from this game. First and foremost, it survived in a hostile environment when the whistle was blowing the other way most of the afternoon. Also Snaer looked pedestrian on offense. White had a great first half, showing off his potential, before playing the role of wallflower for much of the second half. Long story short, the Seminoles have a long way to go and an uphill battle to fight before Selection Sunday — this team needs to get a lot better.

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ACC M5: 01.04.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 4th, 2013

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  1. CSNChicago.com: Duke commitment Jabari Parker reached out to a couple of pros for advice on his budding career. On recruiting, he talked to fellow Chicago Simeon HS graduate Derrick Rose, who pointed Parker toward the coach who would most push him instead of coddling him. For injury advice, he sought out Duke alumnus Grant Hill, who stressed the importance of patience. Their advice certainly isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s cool to see someone use those connections to make these kinds of life decisions. It also probably didn’t hurt Duke to have a guy like Hill indirectly (and unofficially of course) representing the school.
  2. Run The Floor: In case Ken Pomeroy’s numbers didn’t give you a full clue into how much better Duke has been than the rest of the ACC, Michael Rogner made up an ACC “Power Rankings” based on efficiency margins. Visually, it’s stunning just how much more impressive Duke has been in the early goings and explains why Pomeroy’s simulations have Duke winning nearly 90% of the time. Duke has the best offense and the best defense in the league by fairly significant margins. And the other schools with an elite offense (really only NC State) or defense (Georgia Tech and Virginia) are very one-dimensional.
  3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Speaking of the Yellow Jackets, Georgia Tech is off to an impressive 10-2 start this season. But while their record should come with a grain of salt, it’s not like Brian Gregory played a schedule of world-beaters in non-conference play last season when his team started 7-7. Georgia Tech’s improvement is mostly on the defensive end, where they’re shutting opponents down and doing a solid job covering the defensive glass. Last year the Yellow Jackets needed a miracle game out of Glen Rice, Jr., to have a chance. This year they might be able to surprise a few teams along the way.
  4. CBSSports.com: Florida State‘s recent “disappoint in the non-conference but force the Selection Committee’s hand with a couple of great conference wins” MO may fall somewhat short this season. In large part, the Seminoles can blame the second item on this list, as there just aren’t that many great wins within the ACC to get this season. Sure, beating Duke in Tallahassee would go a long way, but apart from their one shot at the Blue Devils the Seminoles don’t have any real margin for error. The team just hasn’t gelled defensively, and it shows.
  5. Washington Post: Jontel Evans is out of his boot and may return against North Carolina on Sunday. Assuming Evans fits back into the team seamlessly (and there’s no reason to assume he won’t), Virginia may very well be the second best team in the ACC. Their loss to Old Dominion notwithstanding, the Cavaliers play very tough defense that will only get better when Evans returns to the lineup. Don’t expect too many minutes against the Tar Heels though, as the Cavaliers don’t want to re-aggravate Evans’ foot injury.

EXTRA: Former North Carolina governor Jim Martin wrote a letter to the editor of the Raleigh News & Observer to comment on the criticisms of his recent report about the UNC academic scandal. Long story short, he did everything that was in his power to illuminate the scandal and reported his findings. Unfortunately, without subpoena power at his disposal, though, he couldn’t force anyone to cooperate on the record, a major limitation.

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ACC M5: 01.03.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on January 3rd, 2013

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  1. Associated Press (via The State): Clemson freshman Adonis Filer lit up the Citadel for 21 points on seven shots (he was a perfect 7-of-7 from the field but missed a foul shot). After letting the Bulldogs hang around for the first 10 minutes, Clemson broke the game open by locking down on defense. Don’t read too much into the beatdown (the Bulldogs trailed Georgia Tech 20-3 on its way to a 32 point loss), but a 41-point win is a 41-point win, even against Ken Pomeroy’s fifth-worst team in the country. Clemson will need a lot of this type of performance from Filer during ACC play.
  2. Washington Post: Mark Turgeon is really concerned about how his team will perform in close games. Unfortunately, Maryland’s non-conference schedule only afforded it one such game (the season opening loss to Kentucky where Maryland went flat down the stretch). Since then it has been a rotating cast of cupcakes. Turgeon has had his team practicing those tight situations all season, but you can’t replicate the intensity of conference play on the practice floor.
  3. Streaking the Lawn: Virginia‘s non-conference play was an emotional roller coaster. An undermanned Cavaliers team lost its season opener to George Mason. Less than a week later, they lost to a mediocre Delaware team and missed the chance to prove their own in the NIT Tip-Off. Then Tony Bennett’s team pulled off a shocking upset at Wisconsin and ground out a home win against Tennessee only to lose to a horrible Old Dominion team before Christmas. There were some cupcakes in between those contests, but it’s really tough to tell who the real Virginia is this season. It will be really interesting to see how North Carolina handles Bennett’s system this coming Sunday.
  4. Duke Basketball Report: NC State freshman TJ Warren is on pace for a record-setting year. Currently, Warren is shooting 77-of-111 (69.4%) from the field. Only Brendan Haywood and Christian Laettner have sported better field goal percentages as a rookie — and Laettner didn’t manage enough attempts to make the record book. What’s especially impressive about Warren (compared to Haywood) is his versatility. Haywood never saw a shot longer than four feet that he liked, but Warren is a sick 8-of-13 from long range so far this year.
  5. The Sporting News: Mason Plumlee looked rather pedestrian against Davidson last night. The Wildcats doubled him every time he touched the ball and his six turnovers show just how rattled he was by their two-pronged attack. In the first half specifically, Plumlee looked totally frustrated by the strategy. In the second half, he looked better (though still not great). But the reason Duke’s future opponents should be warned isn’t that he’ll come back more motivated — they should be warned because Duke still dominated a good Davidson team, winning by 17 points in a quasi-road game (covering Vegas’ 11.5 point spread and matching Ken Pomeroy’s prediction).
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