ACC Preview Revisited – Part Two

Posted by mpatton on January 2nd, 2014

As the non-conference portion of the 2013-14 college basketball season nears its conclusion and conference play looms large in the New Year, the ACC has seen its share of ups and downs along an uneven early stretch. While some of its teams (Duke, Syracuse) appear to be capable of the preseason hype bestowed upon them, others have been a mixture of confounding (North Carolina), shockingly underwhelming (Boston College, Maryland) and utterly but pleasantly surprising (Florida State). The conference some were talking about being the greatest college basketball had ever witnessed hasn’t shown the depth and consistency in non-conference play to justify that acoolade, but there is still a long way to go as this new-look league embarks into ACC play. Here’s a look back at the RTC preseason ACC rankings as voted upon by the writers and how those teams have performed thus far and look to perform as the season progresses.

To review Part One of this feature, click here.

6. Maryland (8-5)

The continued emergence of Roddy Peters bodes well for Maryland. (USA TODAY Sports)

The continued emergence of Roddy Peters bodes well for Maryland. (USA TODAY Sports)

  • Signature Wins: Providence, at Boston College
  • Signature Losses: Connecticut, Boston University
  • Reasons for Optimism: Seth Allen is back, which should take pressure off of freshman Roddy Peters. But it’s also worth noting that Peters looks like he’ll be the real deal eventually. He’s already the team’s best distributor and his ability to draw contact in the lane should make him valuable going forward. Evan Smotrycz and Jake Layman make a pair of sharpshooting forwards who are a horrible match-up for anyone. Last but not least, the Terrapins already have a conference road win under their belt.
  • Reasons for Pessimism: What looked to be a great one-two punch in the frontcourt has turned into an awful start for Shaquille Cleare and nothing special from Charles Mitchell. Also, home losses to Boston University and Oregon State raise serious questions about the team’s consistency. The team often loses sight of its strengths on offense (or commits needless turnovers), which leads to scoring droughts and opponent runs.
  • Forecast: The losses essentially come down to defense: When the Terrapins hold opponents below a point per possession, they’re 6-0 (not counting Tulsa or George Washington, both of which effectively scored a point per possession). But when Maryland fails to limit its opponents on offense, the team is 1-4. This team needs to finish in the top three of the standings to sniff the NCAA Tournament, but the NIT should be in the cards with a strong conference showing.

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ACC M5: New Year’s Eve Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 31st, 2013

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  1. Tallahassee Democrat: Boris Bojanovsky is a totally new player this season (so is Michael Ojo for that matter, but that’s for another story). After playing basketball in Spain, the athleticism and speed of the game required the 7’3″ center to ratchet up his intensity. This year, those adjustments are paying off big. Currently Bojanovsky is shooting almost 75 percent from the floor and leads the Seminoles in blocked shots. He still needs to work on remaining on the court, though, as he and Ojo tend to draw more whistles than they commit fouls.
  2. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Pretty sure Virginia has now entered the danger zone. The Cavaliers gave up 87 points at Tennessee (where NC State won last week) and lost by 35 in a pitiful performance. If Jon Pence’s numbers are right, Tennessee finished the game with an offensive efficiency of 142.6, which is Virginia’s second-worst defensive showing in the Tony Bennett era (the first coming in 2010 against Washington). To put that number in context, it would be Boston College’s worst-game defensive efficiency of the season. Somewhat troubling is that this is the second poor defensive performance by the Cavaliers in as many games. Rust coming out of the break may have played a factor — and Tennessee making everything it shot, including a half-court buzzer-beater to end the first half certainly contributed — but this performance is inexcusable for a good defensive team.
  3. Backing the Pack: NC State owned double-figure leads in the second half of its last five games, but all those leads were cut to at least five and the Wolfpack lost the game to Missouri. The trend is concerning, but it also makes some sense with a young team. Even more important factors are an inexperienced primary point guard, streaky shooting, and an over-reliance on TJ Warren’s offense. The experience part will change over time, but Mark Gottfried needs to keep working on his team’s execution with leads, as conference teams will look a lot more like Missouri than Detroit. On the bright side, the transitive property says NC State will beat Virginia by 42 at a neutral site.
  4. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon may be “starting over” now that Seth Allen is back in the lineup, but he’s got a lot of work to do before the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee joins him. Also, North Carolina Central isn’t a team to overlook (just ask NC State), but it could be a deal-breaker come March. That said, Turgeon’s coachspeak is exactly what the Terrapins need right now, with one primary exception. They need to remember they’re 1-0 in road conference games. That’s big. So is avoiding the inaugural ACC Tournament Wednesday slate of games.
  5. Inside Carolina: That sound was everyone in Chapel Hill collectively exhaling. Roy Williams quieted some of the retirement rumors recently spurred by Jason King’s Bleacher Report article on his radio show by noting that “I’ve wanted to go six to 10 more years” despite his wife wanting him to quit a decade ago. The x-factor is obviously his health, but it’s clear he wants to keep coaching while he still can. He also talked about Joel James’ return, which Williams expects to happen in the second or third conference game, depending on his continued progress.
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ACC Noon 5: 12.30.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 30th, 2013

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  1. CBS Sports: Terrific piece from Gregg Doyel on late Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser, leading up to the annual Xavier – Wake Forest game that is played in his honor. Doyel does a good job covering Prosser’s work off the court, but what will always stick with me is how fun his teams were on the court. They never played any real defense, but that only made them more exciting. Hopefully one day that roaring motorcycle won’t ring hollow off all the empty seats in the Joel because that’s the only tribute to Prosser that would feel fitting.
  2. Yahoo! Sports: If not for Jabari Parker, Tyler Ennis would be a lock for ACC Freshman of the Year. Ennis is in the top 15 of the national assist to turnover ratio statistic at 4.7 as well as steal percentage. On top of that, Ennis has shown he can step up and score when needed, dropping more than 20 points in games against Cal, St. John’s and Villanova. The key for ACC teams looking to unseat the Orange will be finding a way to disrupt what is currently the nation’s most efficient offense.
  3. The Diamondback: Seth Allen is back for Maryland and played an amazing 21 minutes in the Terrapins’ win over a pesky Tulsa team. Allen didn’t light up the assist charts, but he did dish three while only recording a single turnover. Allen’s return should help Mark Turgeon with some depth at point guard and take a little of the pressure off Roddy Peters’ shoulders. That said, Maryland will be at its best as Peters comes into his own; he’s a much better distributor than Allen or anyone else on the team. But it’s nice to have a more experienced player to help in certain situations.
  4. Bleacher Report: This Jason King article about Roy Williams made the rounds a lot over the holidays. Both Williams’ son and wife are actively pushing for him to retire. It’s also clear that this season has been tougher than usual on the head coach. However, the most interesting part of the article for me was the further emphasis on Williams’ disconnect with the North Carolina athletic administration. Great work by King catching up with former mentor Buddy Baldwin and friend Ted Seagroves to mine this information.
  5. Burlington Times-News: NC State lost a brutal game at home against Missouri over the weekend. The Wolfpack were up big at the half before letting the Tigers back in the game over the course of the second half. At the end of the day, Mark Gottfried’s team lost out on a chance to get a nice win against a Top 25 team. For more detailed (read: GIF-filled) information on this one, check out the Weather Moose’s recap.

EXTRA: Hendersonville Lightening does a good job rounding up some anecdotes about Dean Smith.

EXTRA EXTRA: The ACC planned to challenge the SEC’s football dominance. What went wrong?

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ACC M5: 12.23.13 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on December 23rd, 2013

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  1. Notre Dame: Mike Brey’s weekend was probably worse than yours. First, his team coughed up an eight-point lead with less than a minute left to Ohio State that was so bad that it inspired CBSSports.com‘s Matt Norlander to track down the worst collapses of the millennium. That win would have brought Notre Dame back into the national conversation and made up for a couple of unfortunate non-conference losses. Instead as a kicker, Jerian Grant released a statement over the weekend that he will not be enrolled at Notre Dame for the spring semester, citing a “poor decision” related to academics. As of now Grant is planning to come back to South Bend next season for a final year of eligibility. Very tough basketball weekend in South Bend.
  2. Inside Carolina: If you’re looking for the details on PJ Hairston‘s case, Greg Barnes has you covered. Apparently what led to the final decision was not as much the impermissible benefits issue, but more the inconsistencies with Hairston’s accounts to the university and the NCAA. Also interesting (albeit perhaps not new) is that head coach Roy Williams did not initially want to suspend Hairston last summer, which put him at odds with North Carolina’s relatively new athletic director Bubba Cunningham.
  3. Run the Floor: Duke‘s second half against UCLA on Thursday night was probably its best 20 minutes of basketball this season. The Blue Devils were very good on defense (largely because the Bruins’ threes stopped falling), but their ball movement and three-point shooting were outstanding. Run the Floor breaks down all of the Duke threes in the game, exposing the porous UCLA defense. This is the Duke team many expected coming into the season. Zone defense should be ineffective against a team that usually has four shooters on the floor, two of whom are 6’8″ and highly skilled offensive weapons.
  4. Tomahawk Nation: Florida State got a strong non-conference win on Saturday, dominating Massachusetts on the defensive end. The Seminoles ended up holding the Minutemen to an absurd 0.75 points per possession. The highlight of Michael Rogner’s post here is his video capturing all 12 of Florida State’s blocks. Regardless of their current record, in case those two close games against Florida and Michigan didn’t convince you, these Seminoles are for real. Going to Tallahassee is going to be quite the test this season. Notre Dame and Syracuse will get their first taste of the Donald L. Tucker Center, and they should be prepared for what awaits them there.
  5. College Basketball Talk: And we’re back to teams that had bad weekends. Boston College lost at Auburn. On the surface that’s a road loss to a power conference team, but Auburn is not good (actually, they’re awful). And still, the Eagles lost by 10 points. Now it’s time to stop talking about how Steve Donahue can turn his team around and try to figure out instead where he lost them. Is it personnel? Effort? Both? The postseason isn’t happening this year, but Donahue now faces the uphill battle of motivating three different groups: his team, his fans, and his potential recruits.
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PJ Hairston Done In Chapel Hill

Posted by mpatton on December 20th, 2013

North Carolina‘s athletic department released a statement today asserting that it will not apply for PJ Hairston‘s reinstatement. Per athletic director Bubba Cunningham: “Unfortunately PJ made a number of mistakes that placed his eligibility at risk and the University’s joint review with the NCAA made it clear that seeking reinstatement for PJ would not be possible.” The news is obviously a blow to this North Carolina team’s ceiling, as Hairston filled a major hole in their rotation. The Tar Heels have three of the best wins in the country without Hairston, but possibly the only bright spot is that closure should allow the team to game plan with certainty going forward.

Without PJ Hairston, there's even more pressure on Marcus Paige the rest of the year. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America)

Without PJ Hairston, there’s even more pressure on Marcus Paige the rest of the year. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images North America)

While Hairston’s case is complex, the decision is simple: North Carolina, with advice from the NCAA, chose not to seek reinstatement because the case wasn’t winnable. Who knows which evidence was the proverbial straw here, but only looking at the limited information available to the public, it was clear Hairston’s case was much more complicated than Leslie McDonald‘s. Little more needs to be said. It’s unclear where Hairston will go from here, but there will be a spot for him in the NBA eventually. This ordeal will probably affect his draft stock, but as Williams pointed out more than once, he’s handled the aftermath incredibly well.

In his press conference following the release (watch the presser), Roy Williams seemed to feel some responsibility in the case. A man who always wears his emotions on his sleeve, a beat-up looking Williams called the effective dismissal “the most difficult and saddest thing I’ve ever gone through as a coach.” He noted that Hairston’s departure would also affect the team saying, “My team is resilient, but they’re going to hurt from this.” All indications point to Hairston as one of the most liked members of the team, both by the team and the fans. There’s no denying his abilities, but there’s also something about his game — utterly without fear of taking any shot at any time — that drew people to him. Hairston and his quick trigger made watching North Carolina games more fun. But that’s an article for another time. Now the question is where the Tar Heels go from here knowing that he isn’t coming back.

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ACC M5: 12.20.13 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on December 20th, 2013

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  1. Chicago Tribune: The biggest difference for Notre Dame’s Garrick Sherman this season? He’s playing twice as many minutes! He’s also one of the better rebounders in the ACC, getting to the line more, and blocking more shots. Not bad for a guy who averaged 15 minutes per game last season. The former Michigan State transfer is one of Notre Dame’s most important players (arguably the Irish’s most important if you consider the void left by Jack Cooley’s graduation), and although Sherman’s numbers are nowhere near Cooley’s, he’s proved to be more than capable of anchoring Mike Brey’s system.The guy to watch against Ohio State, though, is Demetrius Jackson. He’s been getting more minutes as the season progresses, and appears primed for a breakout game soon.
  2. CBS Sports: Rasheed Sulaimon broke out of his early season slump last night against UCLA. He didn’t have a gaudy stat line or game — just eight points, six rebounds and five assists. But in 18 minutes of action, Sulaimon looked a lot like the player who started for the Blue Devils last year. This game was a good reminder of why he’s so important for Duke going forward, because it’s safe to say Sulaimon will get minutes if he continues to play with that intensity. What remains unclear is how much Sulaimon’s resurgence will affect Matt Jones’ minutes. Andre Dawkins will obviously see consistent (but limited) time as a potential offensive spark plug off the bench, and don’t expect Tyler Thornton to fall out of the rotation anytime soon. But that may leave Jones as the odd wing out unless Duke elects to go small occasionally.
  3. Richmond Times-Dispatch: Don’t tease me with these awesome potential series if you don’t really mean it! I’m looking at you, James Johnson. Here’s to hoping Johnson follows through and inks a long-term deal with Virginia Commonwealth sooner than later. In-state rivalries are the best, and while most people wouldn’t lose sleep over Virginia Tech not playing the Rams every year, both programs would be better off for it.
  4. Washington Post: This is a good piece looking at the questions facing Tony Bennett as Virginia takes a break for finals and the holidays. Notably, should he sub differently? What should his rotation look like? Why can’t his team hit free throws? (Crazy stat from the article: Joe Harris is hitting less than 55 percent of his free throws this year. How is that even possible?!) How does he fix the team’s abysmal assist to turnover ratio? I’m not sure all of those questions have answers, but I think finding ways to make London Perrantes more comfortable will help. And Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell have to step up and play at or near the level people expected them to coming into the season.
  5. Washington Post: Throwback! This oral history of the SyracuseGeorgetown rivalry is tremendous. It’s also long, but totally worth it whether you’re trying to brush up on a little history of the ACC newcomer or you’re just nostalgic for the retro-Big East. Check it out.

VIDEO EXTRA: Missed this when this first hit, but this Seth Davis interview with Rick Barnes on his tense relationship with Dean Smith is really worth the time (h/t Laura Keeley).

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ACC M5: 12.19.13 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on December 19th, 2013

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  1. Bleacher Report: Good profile of Quinn Cook from Jason King. Cook’s offense took a small step back as he saw a big increase in minutes last season, but this year, he’s having his best season yet from both the lenses of efficiency and per game statistics. He’s also the emotional leader of Duke’s team, and sets the tone on offense and defense. While he’s trying to keep the negative emotions at bay during games, you can always tell when he’s fired up. Cook still has areas that need improvement (mostly defensively), but this is likely his only year to really run Duke’s offense. The word on Tyus Jones is that he’s good enough to immediately take the reins upon arrival, and Cook is a good enough shooter to play off the ball (but he needs NBA scouts to see him running the offense).
  2. Greenville News: Jordan Roper had a stroke last spring. While leaning over to pick up a phone, he realized he couldn’t feel his hand. Assuming the numbness was just due to fatigue, Roper continued his daily business until strength and conditioning coach Darric Honnold (which is an awesome name for strength coach) sent him to get checked out by the training staff. Amazingly, he recovered and was back with Clemson in a matter of weeks, but the experience has given him a new appreciation for his health.
  3. Syracuse Post-Gazette: Jason Murray produced a number of shot charts for the Syracuse rotation. Two of the three main findings weren’t surprising: “Trevor Cooney is extremely efficient in his shot selection,” and “The big men should get the ball more.” But he also found that Michael Gbinije is much better from three than the paint. A lot of that has to do with shot selection (and small sample size), but for a team that struggles from behind the arc, maybe more plays looking for Gbinije spotting up from deep would help the spacing for the bigs. The other definitive thing is that BJ Johnson should probably avoid threes for a little while.
  4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Solid piece from Norm Wood on London Perrantes, Virginia’s freshman starting point guard. That said, the questions comparing Perrantes to Magic Johnson feel a little forced, but there’s some good tidbits from Tony Bennett on what he’s looking from Jontel Evans’ replacement. Mostly Bennett wants Perrantes to keep defenses honest while valuing the basketball, but he’s at least planted the seed of growing into a “dual threat” guard.
  5. Pulsefeedz: Not our normal fare, but Maryland‘s statue of Testudo (the Terrapin mascot) somehow caught fire recently. It has since been deemed an accident, but that seems like a pretty serious fire. No one (including the statue) was injured in the event.

VIDEO EXTRA: Roy Williams wasn’t happy after North Carolina’s home loss to Texas.

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Leslie McDonald Reinstated; PJ Hairston Still Pending

Posted by mpatton on December 18th, 2013

Big news out of Chapel Hill today as Leslie McDonald was reinstated by the NCAA effective immediately, allowing him to play in tonight’s game against Texas. McDonald was suspended  for the first nine games of North Carolina‘s season for accepting impermissible benefits, including “the use of luxury cars, payment of parking tickets, a cell phone and lodging,” per the NCAA’s release. He will also be required to donate almost $1,800 to charity.

Leslie McDonald gives Roy Williams another offensive weapon. (credit: Jeffrey A. Camarati / North Carolina athletics)

Leslie McDonald gives Roy Williams another offensive weapon. (credit: Jeffrey A. Camarati / North Carolina athletics)

The strangest part of the story comes in the details of the NCAA’s release. While the general consensus has been that the NCAA has been holding up the decisions of McDonald and PJ Hairston for some unknown reason, it was revealed that North Carolina only submitted a reinstatement request on December 11 (after initially reporting the case in late October). The request was completed yesterday, so there was a very quick turnaround in Indianapolis while the holdup appears to have been in Chapel Hill. Raising even more eyebrows was the final line of the NCAA’s release: “At this time, McDonald’s reinstatement request is the only one the NCAA has received from North Carolina.” That means that it is the school that is still investigating the facts in Hairston’s case, rather than the NCAA. Hairston’s case is certainly more complex than McDonald’s, so it makes sense his case would take longer to sort out.

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ACC M5: 12.18.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 18th, 2013

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  1. Charlotte Observer: Good story from David Scott on Ian Miller, a Charlotte native, and how he’s really matured over his career. He has had academic problems and injuries set him back, but this season Miller seems healthy and ready to run Leonard Hamilton’s team. He has upped his field goal  percentages pretty dramatically, along with his assists. When Florida State needs a bucket, his foul-drawing ability makes him tough to stop. Speaking of tough to stop, the Seminoles had a pretty jaw dropping box score from their win against UNC Charlotte. They took the 49ers behind a woodshed in Tallahassee, winning 106-62 (and it really wasn’t that close). Also don’t forget, Charlotte is the team that beat Michigan earlier this season. I’ll go ahead and say teams won’t enjoy coming to the Donald L. Tucker Center this season.
  2. Charlottesville Daily Progress: One troubling part of Virginia’s start is Akil Mitchell‘s slide in production. Last year Mitchell was a double-double machine; this year he doesn’t have any. Part of that is due to minutes, as Virginia is much deeper this season in the frontcourt. But his percentages are down too, and his turnover rate is up. That’s a bigger issue. The good news is Virginia’s bigger, deeper frontcourt makes the Cavaliers an elite defensive rebounding team. The bad news is that this team really needs Mitchell’s missing offensive production (they’ve lost two of three games by a single possession and the other because the team only hit two field goals in the second half).
  3. Daily Tar Heel: Whew boy, it sounds like student tickets for the North Carolina-Kentucky game were a total mess. The first administration faux pas was getting rid of half the student section (the upper deck student section was ticketed for alumni instead). The bigger mistake was in an effort to avoid students camping out, the UNC Ticket Office tried to “randomize” the order by picking a random number (in this case 468) and telling every student in front of that number to go to the back of the line. Needless to say the students who spent the afternoon in the rain weren’t pleased being sent to the back (and then not getting in at all). Next time a lottery would probably work a lot better.
  4. Syracuse Post-Standard: It’s been a little too long since we had some good old-fashioned coach-speak, so here’s some from a master: “We have a chance to be a good team. We’re not anywhere near that now. We’ve got a lot of work left to do.” Truth is that could’ve been any coach off to a good start, but it was Jim Boeheim. Boeheim is slipping into a bit of a routine with his recent press conferences, which means he must be getting bored. Not to worry, with a hot Villanova team and ACC play around the corner, I expect we’ll here a little more variety in the coming weeks.
  5. Fox Sports Carolinas and Real Tailgate: Need to catch up on the last week of ACC action? Lauren Brownlow and @WxMoose have you covered. Brownlow should be your go-to to get context on the week’s best (and worst) performances. The Weather Moose will translate those performances into GIFs.
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ACC M5: 12.17.13 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on December 17th, 2013

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  1. Testudo Times: Here’s a great film review of Roddy Peters in his recent game against Boston College. The in-depth look certainly supports my hypothesis that Peters has loads of potential on the offensive end. The play I found most interesting was the one where he picked apart the Eagles’ defense. It’s also rather alarming how easily the Eagles were picked apart by a freshman point guard, but that’s a post for another time. While he’s still not a shooter, Peters’ ability to get in the lane and find the open man is one that’s tough to teach. When he and Jake Layman develop more chemistry over time, they will be nearly impossible to stop.
  2. Syracuse Post-Standard: One big advantage Syracuse has over most opponents is on its front line, but you wouldn’t necessarily notice it from the stat sheet. Jim Boeheim wants to change that perception, though, by forcing the ball inside more. And he’s right if you look at Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman‘s numbers. The duo are hitting 72 and 68 percent of their field goals, respectively. Both are mostly scoring in the paint (through dunks and layups), but even if those numbers drop with increased possessions, that’s still a great pair of offensive options for the Orange.
  3. Boston Herald: Dennis Clifford received yet another setback in his potential return, which may end up forcing him to redshirt. He was originally scheduled to be back in action by now, but a source told Tom Layman that Steve Donahue is hoping to have Clifford back when conference play resumes the first week of January. Clifford has been dealing with nagging knee injuries since coming to Chestnut Hill, most recently trying to reduce the pain from arthritis in both knees. If he comes back the Eagles will be a much better team, as his shot-blocking will help to shore up the team’s interior defense. But at this point (and with this record), Donahue may be thinking about redshirting Clifford anyway and giving him the whole season to get back to 100 percent.
  4. Cardiac Hill: Stephen Gertz asks if Pittsburgh is better off without Steven Adams in the lineup. I’ll go ahead and posit no. Adams was the team’s most efficient rebounder (though Talib Zanna has stepped up significantly in defensive rebounding in his absence), most efficient shooter (albeit from close range), and an elite shot-blocker (an area Pittsburgh could decidedly use improvement). Also based on the success Adams has had in the NBA, I think he’s a much better basketball player this year than he was last season.
  5. WTVD: This story is head-scratching, but Will Graves — who was allegedly kicked off the 2011 North Carolina team for drugs — was recently cited for marijuana possession after consenting to let police search the house he rented from Roy Williams to finish his degree. First things first, major props to Williams for following through with Graves (who also worked part time for the Tar Heels as a video coordinator) and helping him finish his degree. But it’s not a good look for Graves.
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