Media pundits are always quick to jump on bandwagons and it happened again on Wednesday night. The chatter around Xavier’s perceived ceiling has been around all season, but it picked up considerably following the team’s win over #1 Villanova. Those claiming Xavier has Final Four potential aren’t wrong by any means; Chris Mack’s team is deep, athletic and extremely tough on the boards — a combination that usually makes for a tough out. Moreover, a 7-2 record against the RPI top 50 has erased any doubts about its ability to compete against Tournament-level teams. Below the surface, however, lurk some unpleasant memories, remnants of what are unquestionably ugly losses. A 31-point blowout at Villanova, a pair of brutally inefficient losses to Georgetown and Creighton, and most recently, a clunker at Seton Hall. The losses themselves aren’t the least bit concerning — Xavier’s four total losses is the second fewest of any team in the country — it’s the way they’ve lost.

Chris Mack and Xavier are legit contenders, but do have some things to work out. (Getty)

The Musketeers have a number of options — Trevon Bluiett, Myles Davis and JP Macura prime among them — when it comes to perimeter scoring, but these players aren’t relied upon for lights-out shooting as much as they are pure spacing. With a lightning-quick point guard in Edmond Sumner, Xavier can usually penetrate to get high quality looks around the rim because teams are forced to respect the array of shooters around Sumner. It doesn’t necessarily matter who is making shots, so long as they connect on a high enough percentage to keep defenses honest. The Xavier wings are also adept at making entry passes to the low post, a place where the Musketeers are converting at a high rate, as the presence of numerous shooters and slashers helps stop opponents from doubling on the interior. Xavier post options Jalen Reynolds and James Farr also both rank in the top 100 in offensive rebounding, helping the X-men corral 35.7 percent of its missed shots. Partially as a result of the attack of the offensive glass, Xavier attempts 40.3 percent of its shots at the rim and gets to the free throw line at an exceedingly high rate (29th nationally). Read the rest of this entry »

Another week, another Big East team falls by the wayside. Last week, we watched Georgetown fail to seize wins in two must-needed opportunities. This week, the team exiting the bubble fray is Creighton. Given such low preseason expectations, a 17-11 (8-7 Big East) record is nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s a tally inflated by a relatively sub-par schedule. On Wednesday, Greg McDermott’s squad dropped a home game against Marquette, one it simply couldn’t afford to lose. Even the best case end of the regular season scenario (3-0 with wins over St. John’s, Providence and Xavier) would be likely to leave the Jays’ RPI in the 60s or 70s heading into the Big East Tournament. So for now, we bid you adieu, Creighton. For the Big East teams still on this list, NCAA Tournament dreams are very much alive. Here’s the latest installment of the Big East Bubble Watch. RPI and SOS figures are from RPIForecast.com.

Locks

• Villanova: 24-4 (13-2); RPI: 2; SOS: 9
• Xavier: 25-3 (13-3); RPI: 3; SOS: 32

Analysis: Once again, no justification needed here. And after Xavier’s mettle-testing mid-week victory over the Wildcats, a sometimes-maligned Big East may now be in line for two #1 seeds. Even if that scenario fails to manifest itself, one thing has been clear for quite awhile: these two teams have put together remarkable seasons.

J.P. Macura And Xavier Are Rolling (Photo: AP)

Should Be In

Seton Hall: 20-7 (10-5); RPI: 37; SOS: 70

Analysis: Fueled by the ever-improving play of sophomore Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall has continued to build momentum. There was a major scare in a near loss at St. John’s on Sunday, but the Pirates prevailed and then backed it up with a convincing home win over Providence on Thursday, adding a 3rd top 50 win to its resume. This win should all but punch the Hall’s ticket, but with three games on the schedule, it feels a tad too soon to declare them a lock. There’s an upcoming home game against Xavier that should present more as opportunity than test — it’s essentially a no-lose situation. For a team that was picked to finish 7th in the conference, the Pirates and their wiser, calmer sophomore leader have come a long ways. Outside of Kris Dunn, Whitehead might be the most exciting player to watch in this conference. Keep an eye on him this March.

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Nobody, not even St. John’s fans, has watched the Johnnies play this season while possessing expectations of a season that would end in a postseason tournament appearance for them. Given those modest hopes, few are now looking at first-year head coach Chris Mullin or the performance of his youth-laden squad assembled last summer with any sort of disappointment. Instead, there is a common sense of understanding. Everybody around the program knows the results of this season are meaningless from a win-loss standpoint. The greater significance lies in the development of its core group of players, almost all of whom are freshmen enduring their first season of Big East basketball.

Chris Mullin Has St. John’s Heading In The Right Direction (Photo: Steven Ryan, Newsday)

Freshmen rarely, if ever, excel in conference play. So with present expectations having long ago been traded away for future dreams, it was both surprising and encouraging that the Red Storm played Villanova on its home floor as closely as any Big East team has (St. John’s ended up losing by ten), and more recently, were an untimely foul call away from derailing Seton Hall’s NCAA tournament plans.

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Sorry Georgetown, but it’s time to say goodbye to the NCAA Tournament. An 0-2 week against Providence and Seton Hall means that the Hoyas are now just 14-13 overall and 3-10 against the RPI top 50. The opportunities have been there, but they simply haven’t seized them. Even the most fervent Hoya fans would be willing to admit that this demotion has been rightfully earned. For the rest of the Big East as a whole, however, little has changed. This is the second installment of the Big East Bubble Watch, with RPI and SOS figures from RPIForecast.com.

Locks

• Villanova: 23-3 (12-1); RPI: 2; SOS: 13
• Xavier: 23-3 (11-3); RPI: 5; SOS: 34

Analysis: No justification needed here. Both teams are firmly in the RPI top 10 and could be looking at #1 or #2 seeds. At this point, even a prolonged losing streak wouldn’t be enough to keep them out.

Should Be In

Ben Bentil, Kris Dunn And The Friars Should Be Good To Dance…If They Keep Avoiding Bad Losses (Photo: USA Today Sports)

Providence: 19-8 (7-7); RPI: 37; SOS: 44

Analysis: Providence is one of those teams whose computer ratings have always trailed its AP ranking and public perception. Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil have been one of the best one-two combinations in college basketball, accounting for 51 percent of the team’s points this season. But inconsistent play from the Friars’ supporting cast has proven difficult to overcome, and this was especially evident last week as Providence went 1-1 with an expected win over Georgetown and an expected loss at Xavier. The Georgetown win matters only in the sense that the Friars avoided a bad loss — an important exercise at this time of year. But with a healthy Bentil — the Big East’s leading scorer with 20.3 PPG — leading the way, Providence should be good to go for the remainder of the year. The key will be whether Rodney Bullock or Ryan Fazekas can produce more to take a great deal of pressure off the killer combo — both in the Friars’ pursuit of the NCAA Tournament and their efforts once there.

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Greg McDermott‘s teams at Creighton have never played particularly fast, as the Bluejays have run classically patient offensive sets capitalizing on efficiency more than speed. In each of the last six seasons, Creighton has ranked among the top 65 in offensive efficiency, three times finishing in the top 10. So upon learning that the team’s average offensive possession length catapulted from 18.4 seconds (167th nationally) last season to 15.8 seconds this year (34th), you might be concerned that the team’s scoring productivity has suffered from a shift in approach. It hasn’t. Instead, the increased tempo has afforded McDermott’s team (17-10 overall; 8-6 Big East) even more opportunities to boost its offensive output.

Geoffrey Groselle Keeps the Creighton Offense Flowing (USA Today Images)

Creighton’s revamped offense has been sparked by junior transfer Maurice Watson Jr., whose ball-handling and quickness have made him incredibly difficult for opponents to contain. Aside from his raw speed, what makes the diminutive guard so incredibly dangerous is his decision-making. He often keeps his dribble alive when getting into the lane and his court vision enables him to establish multiple scoring threats using Creighton’s pick-and-roll sets. Watson certainly deserves the attention that has accompanied his breakout season, but it’s been another Bluejay –senior Geoffrey Groselle — who has done the dirty work to keep the offense flowing. Groselle is a 7’0″, 240-pound center who was used sparingly during his first two seasons with the team. He became a minor contributor last year in averaging 12 minutes per game, but graduating players offered an opportunity for advancement. Groselle has taken the challenge and excelled this year, averaging 10.3 PPG and 5.7 RPG on 67.5 percent shooting (12th nationally in field goal percentage). But it isn’t Groselle’s scoring that enables Creighton’s potent and balanced offense (the Bluejays have eight players averaging more than 6.0 PPG) — rather, it’s his movement without the ball that makes things work. This skill is best demonstrated with video analysis.

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The end of football season coincides with the fast-approaching NCAA Tournament. For some, such as Villanova and Xavier, the body of work to date has been impressive enough to already guarantee entry to the Tournament, and likely as a high seed. For others, such as Butler and Seton Hall, it’s imperative to continue winning. The Tournament is just five weeks away and many non-contenders are beginning to play for their postseason lives. The picture is constantly shifting as bubble teams trade wins and losses, pulling each other down as they seek to climb the Big East ladder. This is the first installment of the Big East bubble watch, with RPI and SOS figures from RealTimeRPI.com.

Isaiah Whitehead And Seton Hall Have The NCAA Tournament Firmly In Their Sights (Photo: USA Today Sports)

Locks

Villanova: 20-3 (10-1); RPI: 3; SOS: 6

Xavier: 21-2 (9-2); RPI: 8; SOS: 61

Analysis: No justification needed here. Both teams are firmly in the RPI top 10 and could be looking at #1 or #2 seeds. At this point, even a prolonged losing streak wouldn’t be enough to keep them out.

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Over the course of three months, Kevin Willard has deftly collected the pieces from last season’s disaster and assembled a tournament-caliber team. It started with the transformation of Isaiah Whitehead into team leader, as the sophomore began to channel his talents in new ways – namely creating opportunities for his teammates. Then came the development of Desi Rodriguez‘s versatile playmaking abilities, giving Seton Hall a legitimate scorer on the wings. Finally, over the last two weeks, 6’9 forward Angel Delgado has broken out of a slump and re-emerged as the physical rebounding presence and interior scorer that many fans remembered from last season. But behind all of it, lurking in the shadows, is graduate transfer Derrick Gordon, a 6’3″ guard whose contributions far outpace what shows up in the box score.

Derrick Gordon Draws the Task of Slowing Down Opponents’ Leading Scorers (Photo: USA Today Sports)

The reasons for the lack of recognition for Gordon aren’t difficult to deduce. Being a newcomer has made Gordon a relatively unknown quantity, and given that his eligibility expires after this season, fewer observers have considered his overall impact. He also comes off the bench and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make an impact, making his efforts less obvious to the casual fan. What Gordon has provided are the intangibles that keep the often disorganized and young (five sophomores make up the starting lineup) Pirates together. Gordon is not only the team’s lone senior, but he’s also the only player on the roster who has been to the NCAA Tournament – once with Western Kentucky his freshman year and again with UMass as a sophomore. When the team was facing disciplinary issues, it was Gordon who called a players-only meeting to sift through and sort out the concerns. “Me being a veteran, I’ve got to make sure we stay together and don’t put our heads down,” Gordon said. “I wasn’t here last year, but I’ve heard what happened last year. I’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen again.”

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Back around Christmas, we talked about how drastically Butler’s offense had transformed this season, in large part due to faster pace and an improved individual efficiency for some key players. This offense was predicated on a balanced attack that featured reliable shooters and a handful of players who could score in the paint. As his team headed into Big East play, it appeared that Butler head coach Chris Holtmann had everything figured out. His Bulldogs had collected wins over Cincinnati and Purdue and were a weekly member of the Top 25. The offense that was propelling the Bulldogs was ranked among the nation’s top five in terms of points per game and averaging a whopping 123 points per 100 possessions. The most impressive part wasn’t the above-average rebounding rates for an undersized team or Butler’s remarkable ability to take care of the ball; what separated this year’s Bulldogs from past editions was its ability to score inside. Through its non-conference slate, Butler was shooting over 57 percent from two-point range, its best mark in 15 years. Curiously though, all of it – truly, all of it – has come undone in the last few weeks.

Andrew Chrabascz’s shooting woes have plagued Butler in Big East play. (USA Today Sports)

Many are pointing fingers at Butler’s stark lack of depth across essentially every position on the roster, and while it’s true that the bench lacks the ability to consistently contribute, the starting lineup still provides plenty of firepower. Senior Kellen Dunham has been remarkably consistent this season, shedding the up-and-down shooting woes of his former self. Roosevelt Jones has shown no signs of slowing down when it comes to attacking the rim. Budding sophomore Kelan Martin has established himself as a do-it-all scorer and one of the team’s most efficient shooters. None of these three have suffered any slowdown in conference play and none are the reason why Butler has been unable to win close league games. Instead, the tragic downturn has coincided with both an injury to point guard Tyler Lewis, and more importantly, the disappearance of 6’7″ post man Andrew Chrabascz, a player who has struggled mightily with his shooting touch. The Bulldogs do not need 20 points per game out of Chrabascz, but any reasonable consistency from him will open up the floor. When he shoots the ball well, defenders are forced to respect his outside shooting as he rolls off screens, a nice addition to the help defense he normally draws in the low post. Butler excels when it uses Chrabascz to set ball screens to free Dunham or Jones and set up a two-on-one situation with Chrabascz either rolling to the rim or floating out for an open jump shot. His shooting ability forces post players to leave the paint in order to contest his shots, which is part of the reason Jones and Martin have had so many lanes on their drives to the basket.

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Marquette may have already matched last season’s win total, but conference success has been hard to come by. A once-dominant, perennial contender in the Big East has fallen by the wayside following the departure of Buzz Williams. And while expectations have been tempered for first-time head coach Steve Wojciechowski, the frustration is already evident. On its face, the Golden Eagles’ frontcourt pairing of Indiana transfer Luke Fischer – an experienced junior with a plethora of post moves – and highly touted freshman Henry Ellenson forms the core of the best offensive frontcourt in the conference. Unsurprisingly, the team is sporting both its best two-point field goal percentage offense and defense of the last 15 years. Marquette has thrived when working through the post, a reality made even more evident when the Golden Eagles shot 54.8 percent inside the arc against Villanova, a team that usually holds opponents to 41.9 percent two-point shooting (16th nationally).

Yet for a team that plays so well in the paint (Fischer and Ellenson shoot a combined 70% at the rim), the team’s offense has been undermined by an odd plan of attack. Entry passes or pick-and-roll plays that have commonly resulted in easy Golden Eagles points are scarcely used; instead, Wojciechowski’s team is playing at an unsustainably quick pace, averaging just 15.7 seconds per possession on offense. The team’s average offensive possession length has decreased from 18.6 seconds (198th nationally) to 15.7 (34th nationally) over the course of one season. This figure is undoubtedly distorted by a high turnover rate and low rebounding rate, but those two issues also plagued last year’s team, and to a similar extent. Perhaps as a result of the relative inexperience of its backcourt players, the quickened pace has Marquette turning the ball over on 20.5 percent of all its possessions, which puts them 296th nationally in the category.

Marquette’s Henry Ellenson Plays a Perimeter-Oriented Game (USA Today Images)

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There has been no shortage of discussion around the success of Xavier so far this season. Even after a loss to Georgetown on Tuesday night, the Musketeers are a top five team with a 16-2 record and five wins over the RPI top 50. It’s put Xavier on track to potentially post the best season in program history. Xavier has earned a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament twice in its history (2003 and 2008), but has never advanced to the Final Four. Now, in building upon a dark horse Sweet Sixteen run last season, Chris Mack’s team is pounding on the ceiling. Some bracketology predictions show Mack’s team on the one seed line, and talk of legitimate Final Four potential is ramping up. A balanced offense (six players score 9 PPG or more) has combined with a stifling zone defense to pave the way to the team’s hot start. So too has the intimidating inside punch of Jalen Reynolds and James Farr, whose combined 15.6 RPG is a major reason why Xavier is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. But the true impact player for the X-men has been redshirt freshman Edmond Sumner, a wiry 6’6 point guard who drastically alters the rhythm of the game on both ends of the floor.

His assist figures may not directly reflect it, but Sumner has deftly assumed point guard duties left behind by departed senior Dee Davis, who had been a critical facilitator on last year’s team. One of the big offseason questions for Chris Mack was whether any player could fill his shoes. Sumner has done that, and more. He is averaging 5.4 assists per 40 minutes, while his scoring ability has drawn enough respect from defenders that they are forced to slide into help position and surrender an open man. His long frame and quick feet enable him to easily evade defenders in both the halfcourt and transition, frequently putting him in a position to score or make an easy pass. Here, are two perfect examples of the aforementioned optionality that Sumner provides his team.

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