The preseason AP All-America team consists of three players from the Big Ten – Indiana’s Cody Zeller, Ohio State’s DeShaun Thomas and Michigan’s Trey Burke. Debates have already begun across every B1G fan forum regarding which players might be overrated or who might not meet their relatively high expectations. Only one player from last season’s preseason list finished the season as an All-American – and it was the Big Ten’s very own Jared Sullinger. Let’s examine which of this year’s elite Big Ten players are most likely to drop off from these lofty expectations that have already been attached to them.

Will Trey Burke and Cody Zeller finish the season on the All-American team? (AP Photo/D. Cummings)

Cody Zeller

Zeller is the best big man in the country. He is also the best player on the #1 team in the nation, so there’s not much to argue about Zeller’s selection to the preseason team. His numbers will be there (15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG) unless Indiana completely abandons him during certain stretches of the game. But if the Hoosiers commit to running the offense through the post, Zeller will stuff the stat sheet all season long. During conference play, there are very few forwards who can match up with Zeller’s offensive arsenal. Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe has the offensive skills but has yet to show that is committed on the defensive end. Michigan State’s big men – Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne — will play good defense because Tom Izzo demands it, but neither of them have the athleticism to defend Zeller’s post moves. Does Indiana need to win the Big Ten and make the Final Four for Zeller to remain in the national spotlight? Not necessarily. As long as they remain near the top of the league and among the top 10-15 teams nationally, he will get credit for leading IU as a contender. Overall, there is no reason to believe that Zeller might not finish as a first-team All-America selection and he may even finish the season as the National Player of the Year.

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1. College basketball has a lot of diverse talent across the nation among its various conferences, regardless of their size and popularity. Especially with so many good mid-major programs receiving positive coverage over the years, there are few consensus agreements among the media. In this partisan environment, Indiana’s Cody Zeller has been selected for the preseason All-America team by all of the AP voters except for one. The near-unanimous pick is a rarity in today’s competitive hoops’ landscape. The sophomore forward received 64 votes and two other Big Ten players were selected as well – Michigan’s Trey Burke and Ohio State’s Deshaun Thomas. Burke tied for the fifth slot with Lehigh’s C.J.McCollum. Creighton’s Doug McDermott and Murray State’s Isaiah Canaan make up the rest of this year’s preseason All-America team.
2. After injuries to Mike Breusewitz and Josh Gasser, Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan understands that he has some holes in his lineup. But Ryan seems optimistic and realizes that the next player in line will step up and fill the void. Sports Illustrated explains that Ryan,  after 41 years in the coaching business, doesn’t get “alarmed” or “nervous” when thinking about replacing experienced players on his squad. Brueusewitz will be back in a few weeks but Gasser will miss the entire season due to an ACL injury. The Wisconsin assistant coaches speak highly of redshirt freshman guard George Marshall, who took advantage of last season by practicing and learning from All-American guard Jordan Taylor. Ryan mentions that he prefers “well-blended” teams that don’t specifically focus on a single player to carry the load on either end of the court. Tough to disagree with a philosophy that has resulted in consistent success in Madison, but Marshall and Traevon Jackson will need to get up to speed quickly during the non-conference season after Gasser’s loss.
3. Another coach who is very optimistic about his young team’s chances to make the NCAA tournament is Iowa’s Fran McCaffery. He is challenging his younger players to bring Iowa basketball back to relevance at the national stage after several years of mediocrity. He strongly believes that the loss of Matt Gatens’ production will be filled by junior wing Roy Devin Marble (11.5 PPG). Marble is described as “incredibly cerebral” and is expected to take the leap to the next level this season. Iowa hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2006 and with a young core of Aaron White, Adam Woodbury and Mike Gesell, the fans are hopeful with their expectations. Sophomore Aaron White averaged 11 PPG in just 24 MPG and his production should increase as he appears to be one of the primary scoring options now in the wake of Gatens’ departure.
4. There have been several changes in the Illinois athletic department over the last two years. Long time athletic director Ron Guenther left the program so Mike Thomas was hired to revive Illinois athletics. Thomas then replaced both the football and the basketball coaches within a span of 12 months (which doesn’t happen very often in major programs). Football head coach Tim Beckman is off to a rough start in Champaign as his team is off to a 2-6 start, but John Groce’s performance will be under review as the basketball season tips off in two weeks. The Daily Illini discusses the pressure on Groce as he takes over a program that arguably is in the “rebuilding phase.” The overall energy level within the program is very high with Groce’s arrival but his coaching abilities will be immediately scrutinized during the non-conference season. Without a true big man in the post like Meyers Leonard, expectations are not very high but that doesn’t necessarily give Groce too much of a cushion if the losses begin to pile up during the first two months.
5. Speaking of rebuilding, Purdue’s Matt Painter has several new faces in West Lafayette. None of the “Baby Boilers” are around anymore, but Painter has been in this situation after the departures of Carl Landry and David Teague at the beginning of the 2007-08 season. Even though Purdue has a young freshman core of center A.J. Hammons and guard Ronnie Johnson, D.J.Byrd doesn’t want this year’s team to be considered “Baby Boilers II.” Robbie Hummel’s class was a special one and this squad will need to form its own identity. Byrd (8.9 PPG) and Terone Johnson (9.2 PPG) will provide  great leadership but the jury is still out on such a young squad with nine freshmen and sophomores. Ronnie Johnson is expected to take over the point guard position after Lewis Jackson’s departure.

Throughout the preseason, the Big Ten microsite will be rolling out the featured breakdowns of each of the 12 league schools. Today’s release is the Michigan State Spartans.

Where We Left Off: Tom Izzo’s Spartans were poised for another postseason run last March but their plans took a hit when guard Branden Dawson went down with an ACL injury. Dawson injured his left knee against Ohio State on March 4 meaning that the Spartans had lost their best defender for rest of the season. Nonetheless, State finished conference play with a 13-5 record and beat Ohio State a week later to secure the Big Ten Tournament title. Izzo was able to regroup his team after the injury but they fell short in the Sweet Sixteen against Rick Pitino’s Louisville squad on its way to the Final Four. The Spartans struggled to find consistent offense during the second weekend of the postseason and finished with an overall record of 29-8. Even though MSU fans expect nothing less than a Final Four every March, Draymond Green’s final season should be considered an overall success.

Is Keith Appling ready to step in and fill the void Draymond Green will leave behind? (AP Photo)

Positives: Despite losing Green, Izzo has several players returning who understand his system and logged significant minutes last season. Forwards Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne will be excellent in the paint together and will cause match-up problems with other contenders such as Indiana and Michigan. Both players have a diverse array of post moves and can get key big men such as Cody Zeller and Jordan Morgan in foul trouble. Izzo’s teams are known to be tough on the glass and as such they ranked second in the Big Ten in rebounding last year (36% OR). The backcourt consists of an experienced Keith Appling (who averaged 11.8 PPG in 30.8 MPG last season) and sophomore Travis Trice, who has a really nice touch from the beyond the arc (evident in his 40.5% 3FG shooting). Freshman guard Gary Harris is one of the top 50 incoming recruits this year and he has the size at 6’4″ and 205 lbs. to become an excellent defender for Tom Izzo. If Dawson is back to 100% game shape by January, it will only add more depth to what appears to be a very tough, defensive minded, typical Tom Izzo team.

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1. The injury bug has stung the Wisconsin Badgers this preseason. After losing Mike Bruesewitz for a few weeks with a leg injury, they have now lost one of their returning guards, Josh Gasser, for the season. Gasser tore his ACL during practice on Saturday. Gasser averaged 7.6 PPG and 4.2 RPG while playing 34.1 MPG last season and Bo Ryan indicated that he would start in the backcourt. Bruesewitz should be back by mid-December and his senior leadership will be a great asset for a young Badger squad but Gasser’s absence will be felt. Traevon Jackson and George Marshall will be called upon to step up in the backcourt and assume the point guard role as Ryan regroups before the season begins.
2. Minnesota assistant coach Saul Smith will return to the sidelines after his DWI and temporary suspension. Gophers’ athletic director Norwood Teague said that Smith has been reinstated in terms of payroll as of last Friday but will not return to his job until November 13. Teague reiterated that this type of behavior will not be “taken lightly,” but didn’t think it was an offense that should cost Smith his job. According to the university, Smith’s court hearing will be on November 9. Gopher fans just want the season to get started and see their talented squad in action as Minnesota is considered as the next best team in the conference after Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin (per the preseason polls).
3. Tom Crean recently received a huge commitment from Troy Williams, a top 50 recruit in the class of 2013. Williams, a 6’6 wing, plays for Oak Hill Academy and let Crean know about his decision over the weekend. The other finalists on his list of schools were Alabama, Arkansas, Louisville and North Carolina. The high school senior was in attendance for Hoosier Hysteria last weekend and was impressed by what he saw in Bloomington. Indiana will lose Christian Watford (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) at the wing after this year, but Crean continues to set himself up with another good recruiting class upcoming.
4. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has never been one to remain quiet about his thoughts with the media. Izzo recently discussed the AP and Coaches preseason polls in the context of MSU’s primary rivals, Indiana and Michigan. IU comes in at #1 while Michigan is #5 and the Spartans are ranked at #14 in both of the major preseason polls. Izzo also talked about the role of image and national perception in the college hoops world and believes that it is an important ingredient to success. He added that there is no reason for him to like his rivals (specifically Michigan) but he can “respect them.” The rivals face off twice during the Big Ten season – on February 12 in East Lansing and on March 2 in Ann Arbor.
5. Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan and Tubby Smith have been coaching for years in the business. Even though Thad Matta is only 45, his impact on the coaching ranks has been very impressive as he already has had several assistants move on to bigger opportunities at other programs. Eleven Warriors explores Matta’s coaching tree after Big Ten Media Day. Matta’s once-assistant John Groce, for example, will now be coaching against him at Illinois. Matta’s assistants include Butler head coach Brad Stevens and Arizona head coach Sean Miller, both of whom are considered rising coaches in the business. The Big Ten is known for its coaches with long tenures such as Bobby Knight and Gene Keady. If Matta stays in Columbus for another decade or so, his coaching tree will continue to expand and his footprint on Big Ten hoops will only continue to grow.

Every prediction about the upcoming college basketball season ought to be made with a disclaimer: “assuming they are healthy.” This disclaimer definitely applies to the Indiana Hoosiers this year. Just a few days after being ranked as the best team in the country by the coaches, Tom Crean’s squad already has experienced its first major obstacle of the season. Forward Derek Elston will be sidelined with a knee injury for 6-8 weeks according to several sources. No team is immune to injuries and Elston’s absence for possibly the first 10-12 games will certainly impact the Hoosiers.

Elston’s knee injury will open up some minutes to the younger Hoosiers’ forwards.

Even though Elston only played 12.3 MPG last season, he was expected to provide an important role off the bench for Crean’s group this year. Averaging 2.4 RPG is definitely not all-conference worthy but he brings several intangibles to the team with his size (6’9, 216 lbs) and experience (senior). Elston, Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls have been around Bloomington for a few seasons now, and their experience will help younger guys like Yogi Ferrell get up to pace very quickly amidst the intense media spotlight on the Hoosiers. Elston is another key body in the paint and would have taken the bulk of the defensive load to help keep All-America candidate Cody Zeller out of potential foul trouble. Senior forwards who have been around the Big Ten for four seasons know a thing or two about defending the paint and he will be definitely be missed during the non-conference season. Elston’s injury obviously means some shuffling within the Indiana rotation but that could also have a positive impact on the younger players in the long run.

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1. The Hoosiers’ depth is one of the biggest reasons for their preseason hype and they will need it during the first two months of the season. Indiana forward Derek Elston will miss several weeks of the regular season due to a torn meniscus. Even though Elston only averaged 2.4 RPG last season, he is supposed to be an integral part of Tom Crean’s bench this season. Elston would have backed up Cody Zeller and maybe even played some minutes toward the end of certain games to keep the All-American stay out of foul trouble, but the underclassmen will need to step up now. Hanner Mosquera-Perea will be one of the key freshmen who will need to become a complement to Zeller in the frontcourt during the first few weeks of the year.
2. Tubby Smith has had to deal with a lot of trouble over the last week or so. Dealing with his son and Gopher assistant coach Saul Smith’s DWI is only the latest of his issues. The Minnesota athletic director has made it clear that he rather than Smith would decide the appropriate punishment for Saul Smith’s arrest from last weekend. The younger Smith is currently on unpaid leave until the administration reveals more details about its decision regarding his job and the AD, Norwood Teague, has repeatedly punctuated that this sort of behavior will not be tolerated. Smith is scheduled to appear in the court on December 3 and may face very a charge like fourth-degree DWI which could potentially jeopardize his career in Minneapolis.
3. Great athletes take rehabiliatation very seriously and want to get back to practice as soon as possible. Michigan State’s Branden Dawson is no different, as he has been trying to recover as quickly as possible from his March ACL injury. During his recovery, Dawson has developed a very good relationship with the Spartans’ trainer, Quinton Sawyer, and credits him for an efficient recovery process. Tom Izzo and the trainers believe that Dawson has put in the effort and is ready to come back “from a mental standpoint.” But it will take some time for him to get back into game shape. Freshman guard Gary Harris will need to assume the defensive stopper’s role until Dawson is back to 100% in the Spartan lineup. Assuming that Dawson will be recover completely by mid-January, MSU will be a force once again in early March.
4. John Beilein’s offensive system requires several efficient shooters from beyond the arc. The ball movement needs to be crisp as it leads to open looks as the players are consistently asked to move without the ball. Last season, Zach Novak (41% 3FG) and Stu Douglass (34% 3FG), understood the offensive schemes and were very good shooters from the wing. After their departures, another wing will need to move into that designated role of gunner and it very well might be freshman guard Nik Stauskas. Stauskas may not receive as much recognition as fellow rookies Mitch McGary or Glenn Robinson III, but UMHoops explains why he could play an integral role in the success of the Wolverines this season.
5. Bo Ryan’s Badgers always introduce a new player every season who makes the leap from a nobody to a key contributor. Without consistent production from new players filling in for the departure of stars like Jordan Taylor, Ryan couldn’t have produced all those consecutive winning seasons in Madison. Center Frank Kaminsky might be that player this season as he is expected to have an increased role in the offense. The 6’11” sophomore has spent the offseason trying to lose weight and work on his conditioning with the trainers. He averaged only eight minutes per game last season but will certainly be an important complement to Jared Berggren (10.5 PPG) in the Wisconsin frontcourt. He may not be expected to contribute much offensively but his size will be very important if Wisconsin expects to compete in a conference that features numerous superb big men such as Cody Zeller and Trevor Mbakwe.

The Big Ten microsite will be analyzing the non-conference schedules for all of the Big Ten teams in the coming weeks. Today, we continue with the Northwestern Wildcats. Check out their full schedule here.

Where we left off: Bruce Weber’s Illini set the expectations very high after winning the first 10 games of the non-conference schedule during the 2011-12 campaign. Illinois handled Maryland comfortably on the road (71-62) and beat a ranked Gonzaga team (#18 at the time), 82-75 in Champaign. But the confidence from those wins quickly deteriorated after the Illini got run over by UNLV in Chicago (64 – 48) and lost to Missouri in the annual Braggin’ Rights game, 78-74. Overall, their 11-2 record during the non-conference season indicated to Illini fans that they might enjoy a successful season before the wheels fell off during the final 14 games of the season where the team sputtered to a miserable 2-12 record. The schedule appears to be tougher this season especially for a team that needs to adjust to a new offensive system under head coach John Groce and deal with the departure of their big man Meyers Leonard to the NBA.

Can Brandon Paul and the Illini win more than eight games in the non-conference season?

Major Tournaments: The timing couldn’t be worse for the Illini to play in arguably the most prestigious preseason tournament, the Maui Invitational. Illini fans envisioned a completely different team for this event when the field was announced over a year ago. First off, Bruce Weber was still expected to be coaching in Champaign. Few expected Meyers Leonard to stick around for a senior season, but he wasn’t viewed as a sure lock for the NBA after just two seasons either. Guard Crandall Head was supposed to play an integral role in his junior year rather than transferring out of the program after just one season. Regardless of the personnel changes on the team, the fans expected Illinois to fly to Maui as one of the top contenders. But the reality is that they might not even be the fourth-best team in the field this year. North Carolina, Marquette, Texas and Butler are most certainly better equipped than the Illini to win the title and the first matchup against USC is not a guaranteed win. If the Illini manage to muscle their way past the Trojans, they will then face the Longhorns as a heavy underdog. This tournament will test Groce’s ability to keep his team together under adversity. If Brandon Paul and company can compete against USC and/or even Texas, it should be considered a very positive early season sign for the Orange Krush and the Illini faithful.

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Throughout the preseason, the Big Ten microsite will be rolling out these featured breakdowns of each of the 12 league schools. Today’s release is the Illinois Fighting Illini. 

Where we left off: The last two months of the 2011-12 season were just an absolute mess for the Illini. After beating Ohio State at home on January 10, Bruce Weber’s team ended the season in a major slump (2-12) to finish with a record of 17-15. Weber clearly had lost complete control of his team and was fired after the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini did not even get invited to play in the NIT amidst the chaos and the coaching search created even more negative press coverage for the program. VCU’s Shaka Smart reportedly rejected the job offer and rumors about Brad Stevens’ interest in the opportunity were squashed immediately. Nonetheless, the Illini hired an excellent young candidate, former Thad Matta assistant John Groce from Ohio University. Groce brings a much-needed positive attitude to the program and hopes to instill some new energy, and more importantly, toughness into the program.

Will the Illini buy into John Groce’s direction in Champaign?

Positives: Bruce Weber recruited quality talent to Champaign over the past three seasons. Guards Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson and Tracy Abrams were all top 100 recruits in their class coming out of high school. Weber did not fully utilize Paul’s athleticism but the junior exhibited his offensive versatility as he averaged a team-leading 14.7 PPG last season. John Groce’s success at Ohio has been driven by an up-tempo, guard-oriented offense and requires a backcourt who can not only shoot the ball but also consistently attack the basket. Paul and Richardson’s experience will be helpful if they can buy into Groce’s system which is not as stringent as Weber’s motion offense that revolved around several set plays. Abrams only averaged 4.3 PPG last season but showed his maturity during the season of turmoil. Illini fans have been waiting for an offense that will let the guards facilitate drives to the hoop and make plays rather than adherence to drawn plays that revolve around the perimeter.

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1. Tubby Smith’s Minnesota Gophers can’t avoid trouble nowadays. After Trevor Mbakwe avoided jail time over assault charges on Friday, assistant coach Saul Smith was the next in line to make headlines. Tubby Smith’s son was pulled over on Saturday for driving under the influence in Minneapolis. His court hearing is scheduled for December 3 and he will be on unpaid leave until further notification by the university. Minnesota received a few votes in the USA Today Coaches poll last week but did not make the Top 25. Nevertheless, there are high expectations for the Gophers to contend in the Big Ten but all of this extra noise off the court could cause some distractions.
2. Indiana hosted Hoosier Hysteria over the weekend and the event was a huge success in Assembly Hall. Fans lined up as early as Friday morning and head coach Tom Crean said that the event “exceeded expectations.” ESPN anchor Sage Steel emceed the event which featured a scrimmage between the red and white teams where Cody Zeller scored 11 points. Two players, Will Sheehey and Hanner Mosquera-Perea, did not participate due to injuries. Zeller surprised the fans with his three-point stroke as he won the long-range shooting competition. Zeller’s shooting form is smooth and even though he may not be taking many shots this season from beyond the arc, his improved shooting form could help him in pick-and-pop situations.
3. After several decades in the business, Tom Izzo still works on implementing new techniques into his practice regiment. After a recent trip to the football facility at Oregon, Izzo has been trying to hold his practices similar to the no-huddle, high tempo practice that Chip Kelly runs at Eugene. The Spartans have been practicing at a “frantic pace” as Izzo is hoping to implement a faster offense this season. The Spartans averaged 62.5 possessions per game in 2011-12, which ranked in the middle of the Big Ten, but they might be a somewhat quicker team this season as a result of improved conditioning. Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne have been working on improving their wind and they will be key if the Spartans look to push the ball more often rather than settling for halfcourt sets.
4. Speaking of up-tempo offensive schemes, Illinois head coach John Groce is also trying to push the tempo in Champaign. The Illini averaged 63.6 possessions per game last season and plan to increase the tempo, especially because they lack depth in the frontcourt after the NBA departure of Meyers Leonard. Other than senior Sam McLaurin (7.5 RPG last season), who transferred from Coastal Carolina, the Illini don’t have an experienced forward on the roster. Thus, Groce may have to be creative with the “power forward” position and potentially use Joseph Bertrand or even Myke Henry to fill in at that slot during certain portions of the game. Illini columnist Loren Tate writes about the Illini’s potential lineups this season that may involve multiple guards.
5. Ohio State‘s ranking at #4 in the USA Today Coaches Poll last week raised some eyebrows among many college basketball fans. How could a team that lost Jared Sullinger and William Buford be ranked as a top five team in the nation? Sports Illustrated’s Seth Davis is buying Ohio State and explains his reasons for being so high on them. Even though the offense might not rely on a bona fide superstar like Sullinger, Thad Matta has great depth at the wing position with Lenzelle Smith, Jr. (6.8 PPG) in addition to rising sophomores Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson. Scott and LaQuinton Ross were highly recruited high school players but were not a key part of the Buckeyes’ Final Four run last season. Nonetheless, they have enough talent to contribute immediately off the bench as Matta’s team will be more diverse offensively when compared to last season.

The season tips off in approximately three weeks but the first official rankings have already been released. The USA Today Coaches’ poll was published this week and there are three Big Ten teams ranked in the top five – Indiana (#1), Ohio State (#4) and Michigan (#5) — with Michigan State (#14) and Wisconsin (#21) taking two more spots. What do these rankings really mean? That is a loaded question up for debate but the poll is generally an indication by the coaches around the country about who they believe the top teams are before the season begins. The good news for the B1G is that this poll shines the national spotlight directly on the conference. The bad news is that the same poll will cause hoops fans and the media to dissect the league’s performance especially during the first month of the season. The following are some key thoughts about the Big Ten schools ranked in the USA Today Top 25 poll:

Are Deshaun Thomas’ Buckeyes ranked too high in the preseason?

1. The Big Ten Is Under Immense Pressure: The good old phrase, “there is nowhere to go but down,” applies in this situation. Nobody is surprised to see Indiana ranked #1 but the Buckeyes and Wolverines’ rankings may raise some eyebrows. Both of those teams return three key starters from last season – Aaron Craft, Deshaun Thomas and Lenzelle Smith, Jr., for OSU and Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and Jordan Morgan for Michigan. Returning starters and potential All-Americans will trigger a high preseason ranking but three teams in the top five is still a big deal for the league. Having said that, if any of the three teams slip during the early non-conference games, they will slide down the rankings fairly quickly which will eventually lead to “the Big Ten is still overrated” claims among many hoops fans. That is the nature of preseason rankings so it is important to understand the selection criteria which is based on some evidence from the past seasons along with the talent on paper. Regardless of the pressure, the conference commissioner is probably breathing a sigh of a relief after this preseason poll considering that the Big Ten’s football teams are not doing very well in the new BCS poll. The only team that could have been in the first BCS Top 25 is currently ineligible – the Ohio State Buckeyes – speaking of whom… Read the rest of this entry »