With the Big East Tournament just around the corner, things are looking pretty good. Every conference bubble team that needed to win did so, giving us a much higher degree of certainty that the conference will earn five NCAA Tournament bids this season. Part of the reason for that is welcome to lock territory, Seton Hall. The Pirates picked up a signature win at home on Sunday against Xavier and would finish the regular season with a worst-case RPI of #44 should the Pirates lose this weekend at DePaul. At a macro level, the conference appears primed for postseason success: two highly-seeded teams and two or three mid-seeded teams makes for a good combination of quality and quantity in representation. Now it comes down to a final regular season game and the conference tournament to determine seeding for those five teams. Here’s the latest installment of the Big East Bubble Watch. RPI and SOS figures are from RPIForecast.com.

Locks

Jay Wright and Villanova have been on point. (Getty)

• Villanova: 26-4 (15-2); RPI: 2; SOS: 12
• Xavier: 25-4 (13-4); RPI: 7; SOS: 30
• Seton Hall: 21-8 (11-6); RPI: 33; SOS: 52

Analysis: Once again, no justification is needed for Villanova and Xavier here, as both are reasonable contenders for the #1 seed line. Xavier dropped a road game at Seton Hall that may have diminished the Musketeers’ chances for a top seed, but the corresponding effect is that it moved the Pirates into the lock category. For a team that was picked to finish seventh in the preseason, Seton Hall and its wiser, calmer sophomore leader Isaiah Whitehead have come a long way. The Pirates have one remaining game at DePaul, but even a loss there would not push their RPI nearly low enough (#44) to fall out of consideration. While possibly out of reach, the goal is to push for a #6 seed, thereby avoiding the potential pitfall of facing a #1 or #2 seed in the Second Round. Time to celebrate, Seton Hall fans, it appears that your 10-year NCAA Tournament drought is finally over.

Should Be In

Providence: 21-9 (9-8); RPI: 45; SOS: 53

Analysis: Following a loss at Seton Hall, Providence was getting a little antsy with three “should-win” games remaining on its schedule. Adding to these concerns was that future NBA lottery pick Kris Dunn was struggling with an illness and not playing at full strength. Dropping any number of its remaining games would have deflated the team’s resume, but the Friars took care of business, edging Creighton on Wednesday night (with Dunn back in the lineup) to cement a .500 conference record. A road win in the season finale at St. John’s would move the Friars into the lock category. The more interesting storyline now will be how Providence performs in the Big East Tournament with its one-two combo of Dunn and sophomore Ben Bentil both fully healthy. After rising to #10 in the AP Poll earlier this season, Ed Cooley’s squad has fallen out of the national spotlight and could sneak up on some teams in March. The talent is still there; the rest will fall on its supporting cast.

Despite come inconsistency earlier in the season, Kris Dunn and Providence will likely go dancing. (USA TODAY Sports)

Butler: 20-9 (9-8); RPI: 49; SOS: 64

Analysis: After hanging on for dear life in an overtime scare at Georgetown on Saturday, Butler picked up a monumental win over Seton Hall on Wednesday. That 2-0 week was enough to boost Butler’s RPI from #65 to #49 and put the Bulldogs back on the right side of the bubble. More importantly, Butler’s defense is starting to show signs of life again, holding its last few opponents below their season averages in efficiency and limiting Seton Hall to a 26 percent offensive rebounding rate. The team’s most consistent contributions have come from Roosevelt Jones at point guard and do-it-all swingman Kelan Martin, while Kellen Dunham seems to be breaking out of a slump. Butler’s bench contributors, however, are still used sparingly. The team ranks 316th in bench minutes and the problem appears to keep getting worse, as only six players played more than seven minutes against Seton Hall. This is an issue that won’t correct itself at this point (you are who you are by the time March rolls around), but it’s worth monitoring over the remainder of the season.

Justin Kundrat (175 Posts)

Villanova grad, patiently waiting another 10 years for season tickets. Follow Justin on twitter @JustinKundrat or email him at justin.kundrat@gmail.com

This entry was posted on Friday, March 4th, 2016 at 9:01 am by Justin Kundrat and is filed under big east, feature, microsites. Tagged: ben bentil, big east, bracketology, Kris Dunn, providence, seton hall, villanova, xavier. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.