Another week, another Big East team falls by the wayside. Last week, we watched Georgetown fail to seize wins in two must-needed opportunities. This week, the team exiting the bubble fray is Creighton. Given such low preseason expectations, a 17-11 (8-7 Big East) record is nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s a tally inflated by a relatively sub-par schedule. On Wednesday, Greg McDermott’s squad dropped a home game against Marquette, one it simply couldn’t afford to lose. Even the best case end of the regular season scenario (3-0 with wins over St. John’s, Providence and Xavier) would be likely to leave the Jays’ RPI in the 60s or 70s heading into the Big East Tournament. So for now, we bid you adieu, Creighton. For the Big East teams still on this list, NCAA Tournament dreams are very much alive. Here’s the latest installment of the Big East Bubble Watch. RPI and SOS figures are from RPIForecast.com.

Locks

• Villanova: 24-4 (13-2); RPI: 2; SOS: 9
• Xavier: 25-3 (13-3); RPI: 3; SOS: 32

Analysis: Once again, no justification needed here. And after Xavier’s mettle-testing mid-week victory over the Wildcats, a sometimes-maligned Big East may now be in line for two #1 seeds. Even if that scenario fails to manifest itself, one thing has been clear for quite awhile: these two teams have put together remarkable seasons.

J.P. Macura And Xavier Are Rolling (Photo: AP)

Should Be In

Seton Hall: 20-7 (10-5); RPI: 37; SOS: 70

Analysis: Fueled by the ever-improving play of sophomore Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall has continued to build momentum. There was a major scare in a near loss at St. John’s on Sunday, but the Pirates prevailed and then backed it up with a convincing home win over Providence on Thursday, adding a 3rd top 50 win to its resume. This win should all but punch the Hall’s ticket, but with three games on the schedule, it feels a tad too soon to declare them a lock. There’s an upcoming home game against Xavier that should present more as opportunity than test — it’s essentially a no-lose situation. For a team that was picked to finish 7th in the conference, the Pirates and their wiser, calmer sophomore leader have come a long ways. Outside of Kris Dunn, Whitehead might be the most exciting player to watch in this conference. Keep an eye on him this March.

Not Quite There

Providence: 19-9 (7-8); RPI: 42; SOS: 45

Analysis: NOW things are getting interesting. Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil have been one of the best one-two combinations in college basketball, accounting for 51 percent of the team’s points this season. But inconsistent play from the Friars’ supporting cast has proven difficult to overcome, and this trend continued during what was a painful 40 minutes for Friars fans on Thursday. Bentil was spectacular, but Dunn was battling a stomach virus and no other player stepped up to help. February has been disastrous for Ed Cooley’s squad, as Providence is just 1-5 in its last six games. The RPI number remains solid and the November win over Arizona has retained its glimmer (as has the win at Villanova), but the overall profile has become more fragile by the week. Thankfully, the bleeding should stop soon. The schedule lightens up now, with home games against DePaul and Creighton and a trip to St. John’s all that remains. Providence would be best served by taking care of business in all three, although 9-9 and a win or two in the Big East Tournament should also do the trick. Either way, the pressure is on for Ed Cooley’s squad.

Butler: 18-9 (7-8); RPI: 65; SOS: 72

Analysis: The Bulldogs are still hanging for dear life on the bubble as they approach a critical juncture in the schedule. They played competitively at Villanova before ultimately succumbing to the relentless Wildcats, missing a rare opportunity at scoring a marquee victory. No harm done, but Saturday’s game at Georgetown is a virtual must-win, with two home games against Seton Hall and Marquette following the date with the Hoyas. Losing any of these three games would likely mandate at least one win in the Big East Tournament. Perhaps the biggest concern for this team is its ability to sustain a high level of defense. The Bulldog “Big Three” of Kelan Martin, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones gives the team enough offensive diversity, but foul trouble and fatigue are always factors come March, and the Bulldogs rarely dig deeper than seven guys. Even their bench contributors are used sparingly: Butler ranks 307th in bench minutes. This is an issue that won’t self-correct at this point (you are who you are by the time March rolls around), but it’s worth monitoring over the remainder of the season.

Justin Kundrat (175 Posts)

Villanova grad, patiently waiting another 10 years for season tickets. Follow Justin on twitter @JustinKundrat or email him at justin.kundrat@gmail.com

This entry was posted on Friday, February 26th, 2016 at 2:15 pm by Justin Kundrat and is filed under big east, feature, microsites. Tagged: bracketology, butler, creighton, providence, seton hall, villanova, xavier. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.