Dreams of an ACC First Weekend
Posted by Matt Patton on March 18th, 2015
The ACC’s six NCAA Tournament teams have a lot on the line this weekend. Let’s take a look at each to determine how their current status projects in getting through the first weekend and beyond.
- Duke: The Blue Devils look to avoid another early exit after suffering two huge round of 32 upsets in the last three years (Mercer – 2014; Lehigh – 2012). The 2013 team advanced according to seed, losing to eventual national champion Louisville in the regional final, but that Duke squad was led by three seniors. The makeup of this year’s group — with only one senior — is very similar to those two young Duke teams that were bounced by double-digit seeds. But don’t expect another opening game debacle this year since Duke has earned the advantage of a #1 seed for the first time since 2011. Just getting out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament unscathed is not the goal for this team, however, as anything short of an Elite Eight appearance would be a major disappointment. Duke has won several games in tough environments already this season, but the finality of the NCAA Tournament could cause Coach K’s inexperienced team to tighten up. If it can handle a potential grinder on Sunday, that may be enough to loosen up the Devils for a much deeper run.
Justin Anderson is the key for the Cavaliers. (Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports)
- Virginia: All eyes will be on Justin Anderson when the Cavaliers take the court in Friday’s opener against Belmont. For Virginia to make a Final Four run, they’re going to need to have Anderson (and his offensive game) back in shape quickly. Assuming they handle the Bruins, Michigan State looms as the likely third round opponent in a rematch of last year’s Sweet Sixteen meeting in Madison Square Garden. The Spartans won that tightly contested game and come in to this year’s NCAA Tournament probably playing better than Virginia is right now. Good defense and a revenge factor will not be enough, though – the Cavaliers need buckets, and a healthy Anderson gets them easier than anyone else on the team. If Virginia makes it out of Charlotte, it will likely mean that Anderson has regained his effectiveness and that means bad news for the rest of the East Region.
- Notre Dame: Mike Brey‘s team is trying to ride its hot streak from Greensboro to prove to both the doubters (and maybe itself) that its statistically poor defense won’t be a deal-breaker. Northeastern shouldn’t be a threat to the Irish in the opener, but Texas and Butler are both good teams (remember that the Bulldogs handed North Carolina a loss in the Bahamas). Notre Dame is playing its best basketball right now and has excellent senior leadership in Pat Connaughton and Jerian Grant, so it shouldn’t lack for confidence. It would be a huge disappointment to go home the first weekend but Mike Brey has only had one Sweet Sixteen appearance (2003) to his name. Despite so much success, there have been a lot of early exits during his tenure. That means this first weekend may be as much about Brey’s confidence as his team’s.
Mike Brey’s squad is certainly playing with a lot of strength at the moment. (AP Photo/J. Raymond)
- North Carolina: Roy Williams has a dream bracket. That’s not to say Harvard will be a pushover on Thursday, but the Tar Heels shouldn’t see much trouble during the first weekend with Marcus Paige finally healthy. But North Carolina also left Greensboro in the worst way. After great wins against Louisville and Virginia (two teams admittedly trending in the wrong direction), the Heels coughed up a nine-point lead faster than any fan who may have made the mistake of going to get concessions. Losses like that can totally derail a team. This is Williams’ team’s chance to get its mojo back and expel the demons of the ACC Tournament championship game.
- Louisville: The Cardinals are out of sorts. Sure, they beat Virginia in their last regular season game but they easily could have finished the season by losing eight out of 10 games (they won three games by five points). Their offense is mostly awful, especially since losing Chris Jones, but poor offense hasn’t doomed Rick Pitino‘s teams in the past. Long story short, this team is looking to survive the weekend even though it’s the theoretical favorite. If the Cards face Northern Iowa, they’ll almost certainly be an underdog on Sunday. Given their advantage in athleticism, Louisville needs to carve up UC Irvine (especially if they play zone).
- NC State: Mark Gottfried now has his Wolfpack in the Big Dance for the fourth consecutive year and they are considered a dangerous #8 seed. The NCAA Tournament is often about guard play (say hello to Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier), and N.C. State has an explosive trio to lead it into battle — Anthony “Cat” Barber, Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner. A transfer from LSU, Turner will be facing his old school in one of the most anticipated second round matchups of the tournament. With two NBA prospects up front, the Tigers pose an interesting contrast to the perimeter attack of N.C. State. No matter who wins, top seeded Villanova will have its hands full with either team. The Wolfpack has beaten several good teams away from home this season so they shouldn’t be in awe of the situation if it presents itself.
