Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.

College basketball is nearly here. You can feel it now, the palpable hype (both good and bad) growing around the various players, coaches and teams who over the next five months will provide a steady dose of tantalizing hoops action. Each season brings a host of unpredictable variables and elements, which makes divining conference and national championship contenders in October a notoriously futile endeavor. Preseason polls are nonetheless afforded at least some measure of credibility and national attention. And I have to admit, a wave of excitement came over me when I pored over the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll. These rankings hold little to no bearing for the events of the upcoming season, and they’re almost entirely based on perception. The upshot is that we’re talking about college basketball – and not NCAA violations or transfer culture or conference realignment – real, actual basketball topics. Everyone will have their own say on these rankings, and many will protest their favorite team’s slot in the Top 25, but remember this: Competition and team rankings have a way of sorting themselves out over the course of a season. So if your team deserves a spot in these rankings, it will prove as much. Despite the ultimate meaninglessness of this list, I highlighted some interesting items worth discussing. To frame my thoughts, I’ve come up with three “underrateds,” three “reaches,” and one puzzling snub. Again, this is all speculative, so put these rankings (and my resulting analysis) in perspective without fretting over your team’s placement all too much.

The Rebels will need time to integrate a stable of young players, but they should be a dangerous group in March (Photo credit: Ethan Miller/Getty Images).

Underrated

UNLV (#19)

There’s no questioning UNLV’s talent. On that front, the Rebels are undeniably loaded. Pittsburgh transfer Khem Birch joins NBA prospect Mike Moser and highly-touted freshman Anthony Bennett to form arguably the nation’s best frontcourt. Experienced guards Justin Hawkins and Anthony Marshall provide leadership and control on both ends of the floor. Incoming combo guard Katin Reinhardt, the No. 8 ranked player at his position according to ESPN, could play a key bench role right away. Within the confines of Dave Rice’s throwback high-speed UNLV system, a conference championship and top-four NCAA Tournament seed are realistic goals. That said, there are a bunch of moving parts to account for, and it’s never smart to assume freshmen – no matter how highly touted – can make seamless transitions into the college game. These are legitimate concerns. But when you have this much talent, and you combine it with Rice’s up-tempo system, the end result is predictably excellent. UNLV’s ceiling is limitless; the question is whether it can congeal so much young talent into a cohesive unit. If it can, the Rebels will surpass this ranking by season’s end.

Gonzaga (#22)

The term mid-major does not apply to the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Since bursting onto the scene with an Elite Eight appearance in 1999, the Bulldogs have competed, recruited and operated in the high-major mold. But the program’s booming existence on the cutting edge of mid-major competition has not translated to the sort of consistent deep Tournament success most expected when it reached a regional final more than a decade ago. The 2012-13 Bulldogs could be Mark Few’s best team yet. Four major contributors return for another run at postseason success this season. They’ll be joined by big man Przemek Karnowski, yet another product of Few’s well-connected foreign recruiting outlets. If Karnowski lives up to his billing, the Bulldogs aren’t just a sure bet to compete for another West Coast Conference crown. They can challenge power conference heavyweights for prime seeding come Selection Sunday.

Missouri (#17)

In hindsight, the deluge of criticism aimed at Missouri for hiring former Miami coach Frank Haith wasn’t just premature. It was completely off-base. Powered by a high-tempo four-guard lineup, the Tigers ran Big 12 competition into the ground. Haith implemented a lightning-quick pace, channeled within a nuanced break-neck scheme, refined into an aesthetically pleasing, fluid offensive force. Missouri parlayed that offensive acuity into a Big 12 Tournament championship and a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament, yet last season had a bitter end for the Tigers. Need I say more?. Missouri can wash away the bad taste of that bitter conclusion with another strong season. With four transfers expected to play major minutes and a new slate of SEC competition to deal with, reprising last season’s 30-win campaign could prove challenging. But given’s Haith’s performance in his first year at the helm, round two should be no less successful. Plus, the SEC is, by all accounts, an easier league than the Big 12. The Tigers are a legitimate Final Four threat, yet this numerical label hardly reflects their worth. 

Reaches

Duke (#8)

Losing lottery pick Austin Rivers could be a blessing in disguise for the Blue Devils. From a talent standpoint, Rivers had few equals in the college game. But his ball-dominating tendencies appeared to disrupt Duke’s offensive chemistry, and Rivers’ defensive prowess never came close to his offensive merits. So it would seem a logical step for Duke to enter 2012-13 with a more varied offensive focus, to reinstall the ball-sharing principles we’re so used to seeing under Coach K. In fact, this year’s roster complexion practically demands it. Seth Curry, for all his shooting exploits, is not an offensive initiator. Nor is Mason Plumlee a finished product on that end of the floor. Duke’s two prized freshmen, Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson, should enter the rotation from day one. These are nice pieces, but there’s not nearly enough offensive firepower — nor is there viable stable of of perimeter defenders – to justify this spot. Duke will be a good team in 2012-13, with a likely win range hovering around 25, but nothing special.

North Carolina State (#6)

The rush to anoint NC State atop the ACC ranks is a common theme this offseason. Seeing the Wolfpack take out their big brothers from Tobacco Road, the in-state bluebloods who’ve lorded over ACC hoops over the past two decades, would make for a refreshing change of pace. It’s a nice story, I get it. And for the record, I’m totally on board with the Wolfpack’s ultra-talented roster, a deep lineup stuffed to the gills with NBA talent and experienced role players. But I’m loath to hand the Wolfpack the ACC mantle based off an elite recruiting class and last season’s optimally-timed hot streak in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack caught fire at the most opportune moment, and nearly used that momentum to knock off eventual national finalist Kansas. They were also a mediocre ACC outfit for much of last season. I don’t doubt NC State’s ultimate NCAA Tournament prospects, and the favorable circumstances – Duke and UNC’s relative weakness, the Wolfpack’s momentum – should make for an intriguing league title race. No. 6 feels a bit high, that’s all.

While Craft brings experience and relentless defense, losing Sullinger and Buford, and the outsized production loads they accounted for, will be an enormous hurdle for the transitioning Buckeyes (Photo credit: Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire).

Ohio State (#4) 

For the past two seasons, Jared Sullinger dominated Ohio State basketball. His existence on the Big Ten basketball (and national) scene was brief but sensational. Sully starred alongside a cadre of experienced complements, brought the Buckeyes to the brink of a national final appearance and provided All America-worthy production along the way. Adjusting to Sullinger’s and versatile wing William Buford’s departures is a daunting endeavor, even for a program with so much talent and depth in the reserve ranks. That process begins with inexperienced forward Sam Thompson and center Amir Williams, who will take on much bigger roles. Point guard Aaron Craft is back, along with scoring spark plug Lenzelle Smith, Jr., and likely All-Big Ten forward Deshaun Thomas. But the 2012-13 Buckeyes are a team in transition; that much is not up for debate. On potential, I can understand the preseason hype. Thad Matta’s operates with near Caliparian-consistency, both on the recruiting trail and on the court. The Buckeyes have capable bodies at every position, and a successful blueprint to emulate. Still, a repeat trip to the Final Four would come as something of a surprise. Ohio State simply doesn’t boast the same levels of talent or experience as it did last season.

How did Cincinnati Miss the Cut?

There are a score of viable candidates for the biggest snub category (VCU and Saint Louis are both slightly shocking omissions), but Cincinnati stands above the rest. Last year’s NCAA Tournament run, in which the Bearcats knocked off three-seed Florida State before falling to Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen, provided a glimpse of the suffocating defense and imposing guard play Cincinnati promises to unleash on a nightly basis this season. Guards Cashmere Wright and Sean Kilpatrick inhabit one of the nation’s best backcourts. Wing JaQuon Parker and forward Justin Jackson offer consistent two-way production. Shaq Thomas and Titus Rubles, two newcomers with great potential for effective play on the low block, should transition nicely into Mick Cronin’s four-guard offense. This is a deep, experienced group, equipped with the right blend of individual talent and collective selflessness. Louisville and Syracuse are in a class of their own atop the Big East, but Cincinnati can challenge that group. The Bearcats are poised to climb the league’s competitive hierarchy once Pittsburgh, Notre Dame and the Orange jump to the ACC in 2013. Don’t be surprised if that ascendance begins in earnest this season. Leaving Cincinnati out of the Top 25 is a gross understatement of the Bearcats’ potential. Over the next five months, the breadth of this miscalculation will become plain as Cincinnati solidifies its spot near the top of the college hoops food chain.

Chris Johnson (290 Posts)

My name is Chris Johnson and I'm a national columnist here at RTC, the co-founder of Northwestern sports site Insidenu.com and a freelance contributor to SI.com.

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 18th, 2012 at 11:27 am by Chris Johnson and is filed under rtc analysis. Tagged: cincinnati, duke, feature, gonzaga, missouri, nc state, ohio state, Preseason Top 25, unlv. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.