Everybody’s Super Bowl: Quantifying Kentucky’s Road Games
Posted by Brian Joyce on January 24th, 2012Last season, the Cats were 2-6 away from home in SEC play, but have started out 2-0 thus far in conference road games in 2011-12. On Tuesday, Kentucky faces its third SEC road test of the season (and fourth road game overall, including its December trip to Indiana) in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs. But more importantly, the Cats have three of their next four games on the road during a difficult SEC road trip. While Kentucky has improved away from the friendly confines of Rupp Arena, it has still experienced a dip in numbers from the high statistics of which the Cats are accustomed. With Kentucky ascending to #1 in the polls this week, how long will it be able to stay there with three road games on the horizon?
"We're everybody's Super Bowl!"
As Wildcats coach John Calipari likes to point out, “We’re everybody’s Super Bowl.” But are opposing teams playing lights out against the Cats? Or do the numbers suggest that it is Kentucky that plays worse than normal? The following is a chart of UK’s averages throughout the season compared to the numbers it experienced in each of its three true road games.
| Averages (Thru Jan 23, 2012) | @ Indiana | @ Auburn | @ Tennessee | |
| UK – Points | 79 | 72 | 68 | 65 |
| UK – EFG% | 53.3% | 57.4% | 46.5% | 44.9% |
| UK – PPP | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.17 | .98 |
| UK – A/T Ratio | 1.03 | .53 | 1.25 | .54 |
| UK – OR% | 39.0% | 39.3% | 40.6% | 30.3% |
| Result | N/A | L | W | W |
| Opp – Points | 59 | 73 | 53 | 62 |
| Opp – EFG% | 40.9% | 50.9% | 42.2% | 46.1% |
| Opp – PPP | .87 | 1.06 | .91 | .94 |
| Opp – A/T Ratio | .74 | .53 | 1.25 | .54 |
| Opp – OR% | 31.4% | 40.6% | 50.0% | 26.5% |
As you can see, Kentucky’s offensive numbers generally are lower (with the notable exception of the Cats’ eFG% in their loss at Indiana) while its opponents shot higher effective field goal percentages than the Cats allow for the season. All three opponents were more effective from a points per possession standpoint, and two of the three opponents rebounded at a higher offensive rebounding percentage than what the Cats normally give up.
How did each opponent play compared to its averages? Are opponents playing up, as Calipari suggests, because of the Kentucky name on the front of the jersey? Or did the Wildcats play poorly?
Indiana
| Indiana Averages | Against Kentucky (12/10/2011) | |
| Field goal percentage | 50.0% | 43.1% |
| Free throw percentage | 73.9% | 82.4% |
| Three point percentage | 44.9% | 60.0% |
Indiana caught fire from beyond the arc, but overall didn’t necessarily shoot lights out. However, those threes, particularly in the second half, were crucial. From a statistical standpoint, Kentucky didn’t play badly in this game. It was a close game throughout, and IU got hot from outside. This one sort of falls within both categories. The Hoosiers are a quality team, and they simply won a close game. A game like this will happen once in a while for UK, but you certainly can’t look at the box score and say the Cats were outplayed.
Auburn
| Auburn Averages | Against Kentucky (1/11/2011) | |
| Field goal percentage | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| Free throw percentage | 64.9% | 83.3% |
| Three point percentage | 31.7% | 8.3% |
Auburn doesn’t shoot well on a normal basis, and the Tigers didn’t shoot well here either. Kentucky ran away with this one at the end of the game, but Auburn stayed in it through offensive rebounding and slowing the game down. However, the fact remains that Auburn did not play extremely well, but that Kentucky didn’t play as well as normal.
Tennessee
| Tennessee Averages | Against Kentucky (1/14/2011) | |
| Field goal percentage | 45.4% | 40.4% |
| Free throw percentage | 67.5% | 70.0% |
| Three point percentage | 36.7% | 35.3% |
Similar to Auburn, Tennessee didn’t play particularly well. However, give the Cats some credit for finding a way to win a tough game on the road.
While Kentucky may experience normal dips in its numbers on the road (a lot of teams do), the Cats deserve kudos for winning (or in the case of Indiana — giving itself a chance to win) away from Rupp Arena. The Cats should receive everybody’s best shot, but Kentucky’s defense has so far held opponents in check. A championship team figures out a way to win, and Kentucky has done that even when it is not shooting the ball to the best of its abilities. Tough road games are only helping to further ensure the Wildcats are battle-tested, but keep in mind, the NCAA Tournament won’t be played in a hostile environment. Neutral site games typically tilt in Kentucky’s favor when the Big Blue Nation is involved.
Last year’s Cats couldn’t come up big on the road, so give the 2011-12 version of the Wildcats credit for finding ways to overcome that challenge. Kentucky already has a target on the front of its chest because of its name on the jersey. Can the Cats endure an additional focus from the #1 label they just received? Testing themselves on an SEC road trip is one way to find out. So far, Kentucky and its talented freshmen appear to have the resolve to take on and get through just about any challenge.
Brian Joyce is an advanced metrics enthusiast, college hoops junkie, and writer for the SEC basketball microsite for Rush the Court.
