2011 Bracketology: 68-Team Edition
Posted by zhayes9 on May 5th, 2010Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.
Here we go, folks: the first test run of the new 68-team bracket.
While we won’t know of the NCAA’s plans regarding teams #61-#68 until later in the summer, let’s compile this bracket under the assumption that, in order for the NCAA to garner interest in the Tuesday play-in fest, the final eight at-large berths will earn the honor of playing for the #12 seed lines. As far as most college basketball fans are concerned, this is the preferred route compared to the other alternative of having the weakest automatic bids battle it out to get creamed by Duke.
In this edition I opted to keep it simple and have the eight teams battle it out under the same seed. I could see the NCAA hierarchy, should they opt for this route, giving the committee next March more leeway in terms of where to place the play-in games. For example, I felt that Murray State would have been the ideal #12 seed in this bracket, but due to the #12 seeds being filled up by the final at-large berths, they had to be bumped up from a #13 seed directly to a #11 seed. I could envision the committee placing some play-in games on any of the 11, 12 or 13-seed lines depending on the strength of the automatic bids.
I also made some assumptions regarding early entries. I made the bracket assuming E’Twaun Moore (Purdue), JaJuan Johnson (Purdue), Gordon Hayward (Butler), Jimmer Fredette (BYU), Darington Hobson (New Mexico), Malcolm Delaney (Virginia Tech), Lavoy Allen (Temple), Tracy Smith (NC State), Dee Bost (Mississippi State) and Ravern Johnson (Mississippi State) are all coming back to school. I also assumed Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky), Daniel Orton (Kentucky) and Terrico White (Ole Miss) are all headed to the NBA.
Without further ado, here’s some bracket goodness in the beginning of a long offseason…
Last Four In: Arizona State, Louisville, Miami, UTEP
Last Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Mississippi
Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Weber State, Winthrop, Michigan State, UC Santa Barbara, Old Dominion, Memphis, Butler, Princeton, Fairfield, Kent State, Morgan State, Wichita State, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Wofford, Stephen F. Austin, Jackson State, Wofford, North Texas, Gonzaga, Utah State.
Multiple bids per conference:
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Atlantic 10 (5) – Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton, Saint Louis
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ACC (7) – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, NC State, Clemson, Miami
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Big 12 (5) – Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, Texas
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Big East (7) – Pittsburgh, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville
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Big 10 (6) – Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern
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Conference USA (2) – Memphis, UTEP
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Mountain West (4) – New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
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Pac-10 (4) – Washington, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
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SEC (6) – Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Georgia
Looks like Hayward is gone per Indy Star. Begrudingly bump Kansas St to the final #1.
SO MANY HOTDOGS!!!!!1
Tracy Smith is not going to the NBA; He has said many times that he plans on coming back to school and only declared to get an idea of what he needs to work on and what to expect next year when he leaves after his senior season. http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/2/967884.html
Tracy Smith while at the CJ Leslie signing at Sammy’s, “I put my name in the draft to get my name out there to the NBA people. Next year I’m coming back, 100% sure, to play with Lorenzo, C.J., and Ryan Harrow.”
Tracy Smith should have been in the coming back camp. Error on my part. He was the biggest reason I have them as a 10 seed.
Interesting layout, but equally interesting are some of the projected seedings. Butler likely won’t be a 1-seed now that Hayward is a lock to remain in the Draft, but then again I understand that this bracket was made before his decision. I’m also surprised that Georgetown is placed at the 3-seed position (although that may have also been an assumption made prior to Greg Monroe’s decision to hire an agent). Most interesting is the placement of Kansas as a 5-seed. I’ve noticed that many of the blogs on RTC don’t seem to place much store in Kansas’s chances next season, but I expect them to be even more fiery and athletic than last year’s team. With the addition of the #1 incoming player according to Rivals.com, and with a good amount of experience returning, I would think they’d be recognized as a probable favorite to win the Big 12 for the seventh straight season. But as with any reloading program, it’s difficult to tell if they’ll actually reload. Fun stuff to debate. Good work!
Butler is now probably a 3 seed with Hayward gone. Howard-Mack-Nored is still a talented core and Stevens has a very impressive freshman class coming in. 6’7 Khyle Marshall may eventually take Hayward’s spot in the starting 5.
Georgetown returns everyone but Monroe. Wright and Freeman is the best backcourt combo in the Big East. Jason Clark and Vaughn also return and JTIII has Nate Lubick coming in.
I have Kansas behind K-State, Baylor and neck-and-neck with Missouri right now. Selby is a super talent and how good he turns out to be will likely determine their fate. I have NO trust in Tyshawn Taylor and we’ll see how Morningstar and Reed react to being pushed into roles where they’re depended on much more. Marcus Morris could win B12 POY, but Jacob Pullen and LaceDarius Dunn are also top candidates. Perry Jones for Baylor may make just as big of an impact as Selby. So we’ll see. It should be a fantastic race. Believe me, I’d never count KU out.
Agreed with the Tyshawn Taylor point. His attitude problems and inability to quell his frustrations for the better of his team leave me uncertain about how he’ll handle a leadership position next year. As a freshman, he was exceptional. As a sophomore, he showed an uglier, more selfish side of himself that was unnerving. He’s pretty hit or miss. I also agree that Baylor and K-State will be top notch contenders next year. It should be another strong year for the Big 12. And forgive me for forgetting about the talented nucleus that Goergetown has returning; in this day and age the media makes it seem as if future lottery picks ARE the team, and those sentiments can sometimes leak into the minds of even the most fervent college basketball fans.
Not a problem. It’s difficult to keep track of everyone staying/going so I don’t blame you one bit.
You never know with Taylor, something may click and he’ll finally figure it out. Happened with Collins and numerous other college players. Sometimes it’s hard to remember these kids are just that–kids. They’ve got a lot of maturing to do. I’m 19 myself and know I have a lot of maturing to do, haha. Everyone thought Kansas would take a dip after losing that national title core and they only won the B12 and advanced to the S16. If anyone can reload, it’s them (I would have said UNC before this past season haha).
I can’t imagine Butler as a three-seed without Hayward, but then again, I don’t know that they would even have been able to hit as high as a three-seed with Hayward. They would have to run the table in the Horizon, plus go near perfect in their ooc games to make up for their strength of schedule.
I also don’t think Michigan State will be a one-seed, as that really isn’t Izzo’s m.o. lately. He’ll sacrifice some wins in the regular season so long as he has his team ready to play in March.
And seeing UCLA as a potential 12 seed in a mock bracket almost makes me cry, if only because in my heart I know that I would be incredibly surprised to see that next year.
I’ve wondered if a leadership position would suit Taylor’s ego better and act as a spark plug for his play. He’s obviously talented; the problem is he knows it. I have no idea what to expect from him. Commenting on Andrew’s post – I’ve almost come to hate Michigan State. Every year they look merely above average during the regular season, and I keep telling myself “this will be the year that they finally play the same way in the tourney.” But they keep. Winning. In. The. Tournament. It kills me.
Butler has a rugged OOC sked and I’m sure the committee realizes that they’re handicapped by their league and wouldn’t penalize them too severely for that crutch. I expect Mack to have a huge year. I don’t think a 3-seed is out of the question should they pick up marquee wins OOC and run the table in the Horizon again. Plus, they earned some cache from their run last year, even if that shouldn’t matter.
Who would you put as a preseason 1-seed over Mich St? Saying he sacrifices wins is sort of convenient, is that really the case? Most of the time his teams just seem to play their best in March. Lucas is a preseason 1st team AA, Summers is lethal when he’s motivated, Roe could be healthier than ever, Green is a do-everything stud and Lucious gained valuable experience. They’re #2 behind Duke IMO.
I’d agree MSU is #2 in terms of most likely team to win the NC, and maybe “sacrifice wins” ain’t the right wording, just that a stunningly good regular season record is not a priority for Izzo. If it happens, it happens, but it’s not the goal. Without looking it up, I’d guess MSU hasn’t been a 1-seed since the Mateen Cleaves days, right?
And, there’s no guarantee that Lucas or Roe will be ready to go right out the gate next season. Depending on what happens with Johnson and Moore, MSU is likely co-faves in the Big Ten (assuming everyone is healthy) with Purdue, and Ohio State a sleeper just a notch back.
Yep, I agree with all of that. B10 looks loaded.
Just for the record, Michigan State has received a #1-seed four times: 1990 (S16), 1999 (F4), 2000 (NC), and 2001 (F4). So yeah, you’re right.
John Stevens
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