Weekly Bracketology: 03.13.10
Posted by zhayes9 on March 13th, 2010
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months days.
First, a note: Remember to play Selection Sunday Challenge over at NCAA.com to be your own Bracketologist on Selection Sunday. You can even create a group, go up against your college hoops buddies and fill out exactly how you think the bracket will shake out. I’ve been lucky enough to represent Rush the Court in an Experts league this year. The best part: it’s completely free.
Some changes to look out for today: Vanderbilt and Tennessee both have the opportunity to pass Baylor and possibly Villanova if they win their semifinal SEC Tournament games today. Vanderbilt takes on bubble squad Mississippi State and Tennessee looks to make it two out of three against Kentucky. While the Vandy win wouldn’t be tremendous, it would move them closer to Baylor. Tennessee would be a lock for a #3 seed if they downed Kentucky twice and Kansas once along with a solid resume overall.
West Virginia is inching closer and closer to Duke for the final #1 seed. Regardless of what Duke does in the ACC Tournament, the Mountaineers may have enough to pass Duke if they take the Big East crown. Here’s the comparison:
Duke: 27-5 (14-3), 2 RPI, 9 SOS, 41 non-conf SOS, 1-3 vs. RPI 1-25, 6-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 8-1 vs. RPI 51-100
West Virginia: 26-6 (15-5), 4 RPI, 4 SOS, 23 non-conf SOS, 4-4 vs. RPI 1-25, 3-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 9-1 vs. RPI 51-100
I have a hard time seeing Ohio State or Kansas State passing Duke, but I can always re-evaluate on Sunday afternoon.
Conversely, if Georgetown should win the title on Saturday, they have a chance at garnering a #3 seed on Selection Sunday, moving up three seed lines during the Big East Tournament alone.
The Pac-10 final between lock California and bubble-in Washington in all likelihood eliminates another potential bid stealer. Houston takes on lock UTEP in the Conference USA final looking to take a spot away from our last team in, Seton Hall. Rhode Island downing Temple would likely vault them into the field much like San Diego State’s win over New Mexico on Friday. Illinois moves into lock status by beating Ohio State today and Minnesota will be right there if they can topple Purdue. Mississippi State can move into Last Four Out status by beating Vanderbilt, but I feel as though their resume is less impressive than others.
On The Bubble: San Diego State, Virginia Tech
Last Four In: Illinois, Washington, Florida, Seton Hall
Last Four Out: Mississippi, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Memphis
Still Alive: Mississippi State, Arizona State
Bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2).
I won’t be surprised if the committee gives Duke the 1 seed over WVU if they win the Big East Tourney but they really shouldn’t. The comparison above shows WVU ahead of Duke and they would then also have another good victory over Georgetown.
Hard to believe Seton Hall can still be considered a bubble team – I guess that speaks to this year’s weak bubble. Even more unbelievable that Arizona State could still be alive.