Checking in on the… Big 10
Posted by rtmsf on December 9th, 2008Josh & Mike of Big Ten Geeks are the RTC correspondents for the Big 10 Conference.
Looking Back
The ACC won its 10th consecutive Big 10/ACC Challenge last wmichigan st, kevin coble, northwestern, indiana, acc/big challengeeek by a 6-5 margin. That’s actually a pretty decent result for the Big 10, as the ACC figures to be an elite conference this season. Also, take into consideration that the ACC played 6 home games (compared to the Big Ten’s 4, or 5 if you consider Detroit to be a home venue for Michigan State), the ACC’s worst team last season, N.C. State, didn’t participate, and three of the Big Ten’s losses were by 5 points or less (to be fair, 3 of the ACC’s wins were by 5 points or less).
Other than giving ACC fans quite a bit to brag about, the Challenge provides an early look at what we might expect from its participants. Coming into the season, it seemed clear to us that there was a 3-team hierarchy in the Big Ten. The Good (Purdue, MSU), the Bad (Indiana), and the Average (everyone else). Well, so far into this season, that list needs some revising. Here’s how the teams currently rank in terms of Pythagorean winning percentage (courtesy of Ken Pomeroy):
Team (Rank)
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Ohio State (6)
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Northwestern (17)
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Purdue (22)
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Illinois (28)
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Michigan (42)
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Michigan State (43)
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Minnesota (44)
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Iowa (52)
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Wisconsin (54)
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Penn State (59)
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Indiana (214)
Well, at least we got the Bad right. It’s a little early to take these rankings all that seriously, as Northwestern’s #17 ranking indicates (if the Wildcats end up as the 17th best team in the country, they should erect a statue of Kevin Coble in Welsh-Ryan Arena. At midcourt.). Nonetheless, OSU appears to be better than we thought (perhaps even more surprising is the fact that it’s not the freshmen leading the charge), and Michigan State appears to be worse. The cause behind the former is defense, and behind the latter is turnovers. OSU proved its defensive worth in a win over Notre Dame in Indianapolis this weekend, and MSU’s turnover issues were on full display in UNC’s manhandling of the Tar Heels.
Overall though, the conference as a whole appears to be a lot stronger than we thought coming into the season, with wins over the likes of Duke, Miami, and Notre Dame.
Looking Ahead
The Big Ten will be taking it easy heading into finals week, as there are no marquee games this week. One game to keep an eye on however is Butler at Ohio State. The Bulldogs were widely considered “down” this season, but are already 6-0. Of course, we didn’t think the Buckeyes would be this good either. I’m not sure what this game will mean, no matter what the result is.
A Look at the Numbers
You want some reasons for skepticism for some of the early success of Big Ten teams? Sure, consider that…
…Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota are all shooting at least 38% from 3, and 51% from 2 this season.
…Penn State and Purdue each have TO Rates below 17%.
…Ohio State’s Dallas Lauderdale is blocking 25% of the opponents’ two pointers all by himself. No team was above 19.3% last season, and that team featured a 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet.
…Illinois opponents are shooting 26.5% from 3 point range this season.
These numbers will, of course, even out over the season. But it’s still more likely than not that Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota will shoot well this season, that Penn State and Purdue will take care of the ball, Dallas Lauderdale is a great shot blocker, and the Illini will hound opponents on the perimeter.
