With only three weeks remaining, Adam continues to edge out the rest of us. Last week was rough on all of us, thanks to Stanford choking away what we thought would be easy home wins against the LA schools. I was the only one to correctly pick California’s home win over the Bruins, but I was also the only one to miss Oregon State’s road upset of Washington State. That seems to be the trend in the past few weeks, as all the parity in the conference is taking away any opportunities to make a comeback. In our games of the week, Colorado ran by Arizona on Thursday, while Georgetown went on the road and knocked off Cincinnati. So now, we enter the home stretch. California’s visit to Oregon and Georgetown’s meeting with Syracuse headline the list as our games of the week.

The biggest differences in opinion this week come in California’s visit to Oregon State. Adam and I took the home Beavers for the upset, while Drew and Parker took California. I was the only one to take both road teams in our games of the week, opting for the Golden Bears to rally and upset the still Dominic Artis-less Ducks and for Georgetown to get another big win at the Carrier Dome. I also differed in a couple other games, taking the Beavers to defeat Stanford on Thursday and the Trojans to complete their sweep of UCLA on Sunday.

With the end of the semester in sight, some students are making big strides while others continue to underachieve. This week Professor Pac has a couple of A’s to hand out, while the rest of the conference is bunched together in the B’s and C’s this week. Check back later today for seven different C- performers.

Oregon – A

Still without Dominic Artis, the Ducks reaffirmed the fact that they belong among the teams at the top of the conference by going on the road and taking care of both Washington schools this week. It wasn’t always easy and it wasn’t always pretty, but with five games remaining on their schedule, including the next three at home, the Ducks not only have a one-game lead, but they also have wins over the two teams a game back of them, making it, in effect, a one-and-a-half game lead.

Focus on: Damyean Dotson. When the Ducks lost three games in a row, the easy explanation was that they missed Dominic Artis. While that is certainly true, it is also worth noting that Artis’ freshman backcourt mate hit a slide at the same time as well. In the first four games without Artis, a stretch that included those three losses, Dotson averaged 7.3 points per game and wasn’t even finding any good shots. In conference play, Dotson has only failed to put up 10 or more field goal attempts just five times, and four of those five occasions came in the first four games without Artis. But, over the course of the three-game winning streak, Dotson has regained his mojo, averaging 15 points per game and 13 field goal attempts per night. Certainly part of the reason for Dotson’s slide was the absence of Artis, but don’t forget the fact that Dotson may be just as important to Oregon’s long-term goals as Artis is.

Looking ahead: The Ducks host the Bay Area schools, beginning with the suddenly hot Cal Bears on Thursday night, but also including Stanford on Saturday. That game will be noteworthy because just a few weeks back, Oregon went into Stanford with a 7-0 conference record and got absolutely drilled, losing by 24 to the Cardinal. Oh, and the weekly Artis watch? Still no word as to his status for this weekend.

After Struggling In His First Games Without Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson Has Regained His Form of Late (Photo by Rockne Andrew Roll)

California – A

All of a sudden, the Golden Bears, once a team that looked like a lock for a lower division finish, have won three in a row, and five of its last six, including wins over Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. Read the rest of this entry »

Exactly 26 days from now, brackets for the NCAA Tournament, NIT, and CBI will be revealed on Selection Sunday. In this piece, we’ll put together where each Pac-12 team fits into the picture as of today. To see last week’s projections, click here.

*Conference Champ

Definitely Dancing: Despite their recent struggles, both Arizona and Oregon remain locks at this point. I have the Wildcats a tad lower on the S-curve than most prognosticators, but they get to go to either Salt Lake City or San Jose instead of being shipped back east. Nothing is very special about their first round opponent, Stony Brook. The Seawolves, who I project to win the America East, currently sit at 19-6 and have notable seven- and one-point losses in games at Maryland and Seton Hall, respectively. Oregon cannot do anything to play itself out of the field of 68 thanks to its road sweep of the Washington schools. The Ducks have a great shot at winning the regular season championship, as they are already a full game up on UCLA and don’t play a team currently in the upper third of the league from here on out. Being the lowest #5 seed on the board, Dana Altman’s squad gets Virginia, the top #12 seed, in their NCAA opener. The Wahoos have won seven of their last nine and are rising on mock brackets everywhere pretty quickly.

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Congratulations to Arizona, who managed to climb through a messy week on the west coast and take the top spot in our power rankings. If Oregon could have scored a point or two in the final four and a half minutes against Colorado last Thursday, there is no doubt the Ducks would be in the driver’s seat right now. UCLA comes as a unanimous pick at the three spot. The Bruins barely squeaked by Washington on Thursday before getting a dominating win Saturday night against Washington State. Our conference team of the week comes in at number four in the form of Colorado, who is fresh off a road sweep of the Oregon schools. Arizona State was another unanimous pick at fifth after picking up an impressive win over California and dropping a close decision to Stanford. Those same Cardinal round out the upper half of the conference at sixth, and the surprising and fast-rising USC Trojans follow them. California, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, and Utah round out the remainder of the rankings.

• Matching The National Rankings. The three Pac-12 teams receiving votes in the two national polls appear in the same order in our rankings. Arizona, ranked ninth in both polls, is obviously first here. The second place Ducks come in at 23rd and 27th, respectively, in the national rankings. And UCLA, who has a solid amount of distance between the two teams closest to them, is ranked at 38th and 41st. This upper third of the conference also has another thing in common; the fact that all of them are considered locks for the NCAA Tournament right now. That could change for Oregon and UCLA with a couple losses this week, but they are on solid ground for now.
• The USC/Washington Debate. The Trojans and Huskies had more than just Sunday’s game in common this week. Both teams spurred the most debate between one voter and the other three, as I ranked UW three spots ahead of SC, and the other voters did the opposite. Even as the Trojans had the obvious better week, I can’t justify in my mind placing a team that will struggle to make the postseason in front of a near lock for the NIT.

Yesterday we unveiled this week’s honor roll; today we take a look at five teams earning good, solid, average grades. Check in later today for the four teams that will be serving detention this week.

Cal – B-

All things considered, this was a solid week for the Golden Bears. They went down to Arizona for what is considered to be the toughest road trip in the conference this year and came away with a split, including a win over a national top-10 team and a four-point loss to a very good Arizona State squad. That makes three wins in four tries for the Bears and  a team that will likely be playing its best ball of the season as we head into the final month.

Focus on: Jeff Powers. What? You were expecting Allen Crabbe here? Nah, you can read about him as our Pac-12 Player of the Week. Instead, maybe check out what the Golden Bears’ own resident blogger, their junior guard Powers, has to say about his team and their performance in knocking off the Wildcats. Unfortunately, there’s no comment from him about his fine five-minute stretch against Arizona State where he knocked down a three, chalked up an assist and came away with a steal in helping keep his squad close in the second half.

Looking ahead: The Bears have a chance to make a run here, as they host the Los Angeles schools this week. They’ll likely be small favorites in both games and if they can defend their home court at Haas Pavilion, they’ve got a chance to make a bit of a jump up the standings.

He May Not Be A Prolific Scorer, But Jeff Powers Is A Budding Blogger

Stanford – C+

Both Cal and Stanford went to the Arizona schools and came away with splits. Why do the Golden Bears come away with a slightly better grade? The Cardinal’s dogged determination (and fortunate failure) to give away a close game against Arizona State was concerning. Still, Johnny Dawkins’ club has now won four of its last five and has got its offense on the move.

Focus on: Dwight Powell. The junior forward has scored in double figures in every game in the conference schedule, but he hadn’t topped 20 since he did it three straight times in December. He broke that streak this week by going for 24 against Arizona and then answering with 22 against the Sun Devils. Even better, he also grabbed double-figure rebounds in both games, giving him seven double-doubles on the year.

Looking ahead: The Cardinal host USC tomorrow night, then see UCLA on Saturday afternoon. Stanford was swept by these teams in Los Angeles back on the first weekend of conference play, leading to an hour-long post-game meeting following the UCLA game, and since then the Cardinal have gone 6-3 in conference play.

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1. The rumors were out there. The transfer guard out of Wake Forest by way of community college had a nice stroke, and along with the return of Jio Fontan from injury, would be the spark to ignite the long-dormant USC offense. And for the first eight games of the 2012-13 season, J.T. Terrell was that guy. But when Terrell began to slump, head coach Kevin O’Neill finally had cause to bench the player who didn’t completely fit with his team-first mentality. Terrell averaged just 3.3 points over the next seven games, but found new life when O’Neill was relieved of his duties and Bob Cantu took the reins. Now, Terrell is again shining for the resurgent Trojans, who have played themselves into some postseason whispers over the past two weeks. Even more important than the recent three-game winning streak and Terrell’s increased scoring output is the fact that he’s earned the team’s respect and has become the go-to guy in late-game situations. That bodes well for the future, as the 2013-14 version of the Men of Troy will need a vocal and respected leader once Fontan graduates.
2. Some other news out of Corvallis, as Oregon Live revealed that Oregon State forward Daniel Gomis has had everything cleaned from his left leg and is feeling the best he has felt in two years. Gomis won’t return this season as he still needs to return to full strength before participating in basketball activities, but barring any setbacks, he will play his first organized basketball for the Beavers next October. As John Hunt notes, the Beavers will have quite an imposing front line in 2013-14, consisting of freshman Cheikh N’Diaye, the sophomore Gomis, junior Eric Moreland, and senior Angus Brandt.
3. The Monday news day of course means the release of the weekly rankings, and the Pac-12 was represented by Arizona and Oregon in the AP Top 25. UCLA was the only other team to receive votes, coming in at #38 overall. In the USA Today/Coaches’ Poll, Arizona fell to ninth, while Oregon dropped out completely to #27. And as we enter the part of the season where “good wins” are critical to a team’s NCAA Tournament chances, the Pac-12 has posted three victories against Top 25 teams — Arizona against Miami (FL) and Florida and Colorado against Colorado State.
4. After dropping six of its last seven games, Washington has not only free fallen from the NCAA bubble, but is now on very thin ice for the NIT as well. Poor defense and the inability to get key players going at the same time has Husky players and coaches claiming that a sense of urgency is needed for the final month of the season. It wouldn’t be impossible for LoRo and company to make the NCAAs via the league’s automatic bid, but for that to happen they will need to cut back on turning the ball over and manufacture some momentum heading into the Pac-12 Tourney. Also of help would be a top four finish in the regular season standings, giving the Huskies a first-round bye in Las Vegas. That looks unlikely at this point, but if the Dawgs win out at home and pull off a split in the desert, it’s a reasonable possibility.
5. Teams that rebound well out of zones have given Arizona fits all season long, and the same proved true on Sunday night when California went into the McKale Center and upset the Wildcats. A big key for the Golden Bears was the off night of senior wing Kevin Parrom, who was turnover prone and cold from outside. The team’s self-proclaimed zone-buster only managed seven points despite numerous open looks in his 21 minutes of action. Colorado will look to copy the blueprint left by the likes of Oregon, UCLA, and California on Thursday when the Wildcats come calling in Boulder.

1. It was another wild weekend in the Pac-12 that left the conference standings even more confusing than they were before the weekend, with a three-way tie for first place and five other teams within two games of the lead. Oregon ended its three-game losing streak on Saturday night by sneaking past Utah, as freshman guard Damyean Dotson had his best game in recent weeks, scoring 12 points in the first 11 minutes of the second half to help spark his Ducks. But it is the Ducks’ other starting freshman guard who is the big news. Dominic Artis has now missed five games with a left foot injury, but it appears he may be close to returning. Artis will meet with a doctor today and could possibly be cleared to play at Washington on Wednesday night. But, even if that happens, head coach Dana Altman warns that Artis won’t jump immediately back into his full complement of minutes.
2. During the Ducks’ three-game slide, Arizona jumped to the top of the Pac-12 standings all by itself, albeit briefly. The Wildcats, after playing a solid first half against Cal on Sunday night, came out of the halftime locker room sleepwalking and were repeatedly burned by Allen Crabbe en route to an eight-point home loss to California. Sean Miller had been trying to get his ‘Cats focused on starting games strong, and they were successful in that area, but maybe the problem was just bumped back 20 minutes?
3. One of the only Bracketology pieces released on weekends, John Templon’s projections are always fun to look at on Sunday nights. These predictions are focused more on the NIT, but we can of course deduce who is in his Big Dance as well. Templon thinks Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado are all in the NCAAs, with Arizona State just missing the cut line and instead getting a one seed in the NIT. Stanford is up next as a four seed, and California and Washington round out the Pac-12’s representation at the six and seven line. Oregon State makes Templon’s list of the “First 16 Out“, meaning the Beavers will need a lot of help, luck, and multiple good wins in the final month of play to avoid another year of the CBI.
4. Washington center Aziz N’Diaye has quickly tuned into one of the most productive and trusted players on the Huskies in his final season in Seattle. One of the most durable big men in the Pac-12, N’Diaye is averaging 10.7 PPG and 9.7 RPG to give Washington a useful tool in the post. He’s become a well-needed presence on the defensive end of the court, and if UW needs a late two, the ball will definitely touch his hands. For N’Diaye to move on and succeed at the next level (and he should get that chance), the biggest thing he can do is to just slow down and watch the ball go into his hands. Ball control can be tricky at times for big men, and the same is true for him. Once he catches the ball, however, there is no better center in the league at turning to the hoop and getting the ball up on the rim.
5. It was more of the same on Sunday night for Oregon State, who managed to yet again freeze up in the closing minutes and give up a second half lead. Colorado went into Corvallis and left with a sweep of the Oregon schools, possibly getting them off the bubble for the time being and handing the Beavers their eighth loss by eight or fewer points so far this season. The problems stretch all the way from the coaching staff to the players for the Beavs, who just can’t seem to execute in the final minute. Craig Robinson has tried the “let ’em play” approach, which both times resulted in Joe Burton turnovers at the buzzer. Last night Robinson used his timeouts down the stretch, but neglected to call a play to free up a shooter. Instead, two of OSU’s final three possessions resulted in a Burton sky-hook or a dribble drive and fumble when threes were the best option. The Beavers travel to Pullman on Wednesday in a game that could decide who gets the #10 or #11 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Note: Drew Murawa also contributed to this article.

1. Despite playing very well on the road against Arizona Wednesday night, Stanford was not happy with what Johnny Dawkins considered a moral victory. The Cardinal fell short to the Wildcats 73-66, but for the majority of the game matched Arizona basket for basket and had a chance to win the game with down the stretch. Dwight Powell said Stanford let up defensively in the end and ultimately were finished after Solomon Hill nailed a three pointer to stretch the lead to four points with three minutes left to go in the game. Even though Stanford could not pull off the upset, they are starting to play up to the level they were expected to at the beginning of the season and proved they can play with anybody in the Pac-12 with their performance in Tucson.
2. Arizona State’s Jonathan Gilling is out to show that he’s not just a shooter. Although it’s easy to label him that due to the fact that he is second in the Pac-12 making 2.4 three pointers per game, Gilling is providing much more than just shooting this season. After averaging a minuscule 1.8 rebounds as a freshman, Gilling is all the way up to 7.0 rebounds per game in his sophomore campaign. Many will credit Jahii Carson, Carrick Felix, and even Jordan Bachynski for the surprising success of Arizona State, but without Gilling’s overall play, the Sun Devils might not be where they are right now in the Pac-12 standings.
3. After a slow start to their game against Stanford, Arizona’s Sean Miller is likely to make changes to his starting lineup in their next game against Cal. Miller knows his team isn’t going to be leading after the first media timeout every game, but he wants his players to be confident coming out of the gate. He mentioned someone who always brings the same energy no matter the score is senior Kevin Parrom. Nothing is certain, but if Miller does make a change to his starting lineup for their upcoming game against Cal, it’s likely the senior will be getting the starting nod.
4. Dana Altman desperately wants his team to cut down on turnovers. With the Ducks getting swept in the Bay Area last week against Stanford and Cal, Altman has been stressing simple play in practice. In their games against Washington, Stanford and Cal, Oregon has committed 65 turnovers, which is more than their field goals made (64) and more than double the amount of assists (30). However, against Colorado, the Ducks only 12 committed turnovers, but lost for the third consecutive game. The Ducks no longer control their fate in the Pac-12 race with three conference losses and need Dominic Artis back as soon as possible.
5. Oregon State is no longer alone in last place in the Pac-12 and Craig Robinson hopes with their 82-64 victory over Utah on Wednesday night, the Beavers can establish some momentum going into the second half of conference play. The Beavers scored 84 points, 10 more than they had scored in any other Pac-12 game this year, and played their best defensive game of the conference season as well. Although Robinson and Oregon State certainly have been disappointing this year at 2-8 and many have called for Robinson to be fired, there’s still hope. As the past week has proved, anything can happen in the Pac-12 and that could prove very beneficial for Oregon State.

1. The Pac-12 week got started last night with a couple games, the headliner of which was the conference’s hottest team, Stanford, heading to Tucson to face the conference’s highest ranked team, Arizona. In advance of the game, the Wildcats got some bad news when it was announced that freshman forward Grant Jerrett would sit out the game as a precautionary measure due to some foot pain. Almost unbelievably, in sitting out, he became Arizona’s first player to miss a game this season due to injury. As for the game, the ‘Cats got away with running their thin front court out there, even as fellow freshmen Brandon Ashley fouled out in just 13 minutes and Kaleb Tarczewski was ineffective in 13 minutes of his own. In place of the three freshmen, sophomore big Angelo Chol got his most run of the year, playing 24 very effective minutes and grabbing a career-high eight boards as the Wildcats pulled away from a game Stanford team late. Chol probably earned himself some more minutes in the future, although Jerrett should be available to play on Sunday, per Sean Miller.
2. The other game Wednesday night took place in Corvallis as Oregon State took out some of their frustrations on Utah in an 18-point win as Roberto Nelson and Joe Burton each continued their streaks of strong offensive basketball of late. But even with that win, Oregon State’s now 2-7 conference mark has some people claiming that head coach Craig Robinson is on the hot seat. While I would agree that now there are legitimate questions as to whether Robinson is the right guy to take this program to the next level, something drastic would have to happen for Robinson to not be coaching the Beavers next season. And, regardless of the current floundering state of the program, Robinson has given this program an identity that it didn’t have when he took over for Jay John. At some point, that’s going to have to translate into wins and a competitive Pac-12 team, but Robinson is in no immediate danger.
3. As for Utah, as Pachoops’ Adam Butler wrote, despite their struggles this season and the occasional blowout, this is one of the unluckiest teams in the country, an idea substantiated by Ken Pomeroy’s luck measurement. While the Utes’ 10-12 record isn’t going to impress anybody, consider the fact that, putting aside their three blowout losses in conference, they’ve lost the remainder of their conference games by an average of less than a single old-fashioned two-point field goal. If and when the Utes’ begin to make better luck for themselves or get the fortunate bounce here or there that turns a one-point loss into a one-point win, the Utes could be in position to make some noise.
4. Circling back around to that Arizona/Stanford game again, the Bill Walton Pac-12 bus tour dropped Grateful Red off in Arizona this week where he, among other thing, tipped off ESPN viewers to a little known basketball rule whereupon, if you hit anybody on the court in the face with the ball, he owes you a six-pack. I’m personally going to see how that flies on the playground this weekend. Elsewhere in the Grand Canyon State these past few days, Walton spent some time talking to students at both Arizona State on Tuesday and Arizona on Wednesday. And, at Arizona State, he spent about an hour talking to the Sun Devil basketball team and then later spent time talking to Jahii Carson and Jordan Bachynski one-on-one.
5. Lastly, in recognition of national signing day in college football yesterday, we take a look at USC’s current recruiting status in… basketball? Actually, despite the fact that the Trojans are currently a team without a coach, USC’s presently has enough commitments to rank in the top 40 nationally in recruiting. However, that could still change because their top recruit, Kendal Yancy-Harris, the #77 player in ESPN’s top 100 list, has eased off of his commitment somewhat and is now considering ten other teams. Yancy-Harris may yet wind up in South L.A., but we won’t be sure until USC decides who their next coach is.

Professor Pac isn’t pleased with all of his pupils. Four teams will be spending time in detention this week for their misdeeds in their most recent performances.

Washington State – D+

Two home losses equal the Cougars third D+ of the year. A really, those grades have probably only been that high out of pity.

Focus on: Brock Motum. There are plenty of problems around Pullman, but perhaps the biggest one is the lack of enough offensive playmakers to create quality looks for and distract opponents from focusing on Brock Motum. While the senior Aussie has still produced at a laudable rate (he’s averaging 18.3 points per night and hasn’t failed to score in double figures yet this season), he’s had to put in much more work to accomplish what he has and as a result, his efficiency has suffered.  Only twice in conference play has he delivered a game with an eFG% better than 50% and he’s probably spending too much time bombing from three.

Looking ahead: The Cougs travel to the Los Angeles schools this week where they’ll need Motum to get help from guys like Mike Ladd, DaVonte Lacy, and Royce Woolridge to have a chance at a successful weekend.

Brock Motum Has Been Putting The Ball In Bucket Regularly, But Needs More Help From His Teammates (Dean Hare/AP)

Oregon State – D+

Five weeks into conference play and this is the Beavers’ second-highest weekly grade. Suffice it to say, this semester is not going well for them. This week they got solid offensive performances, rebounded the ball particularly well and still, just couldn’t stop anybody, giving up 1.23 points per possession. For the year, the Beavers have far and away the worst defense in the conference; they’re the only team in the conference with an adjusted defensive efficiency higher than 100. And that’s happening with two of the longest, most athletic, dialed-in defensive players in the conference in Eric Moreland and Devon Collier. Craig Robinson has been mostly trying to play man-to-man defense, but this weekend we saw much more of his 1-3-1 defense. With Moreland at the point of the attack here and with the ability to sort of hide Joe Burton in the middle, this may be the best solution for the Beavers.

Focus on: Joe Burton. Speaking of Burton, he may not be even remotely useful on the defensive end, but he sure is a fun watch when the Beavers have the ball. He’s got the prototypical old man game. I’m not sure he could leap over an iPhone, but he does a great job of carving out space for himself with his 300-pound frame, he’s got great vision, he’s capable of making spectacular passes and will occasionally even break out the sky hook. This week he averaged 15.5 points, nine rebounds and 6.5 assists per game. Yeah, so he probably assisted in giving up 30 points a game, but it was entertaining at least.

Looking ahead: The Beavers have 11 losses, but only once all season (the Pac-12 opener against Oregon) have they lost by more than ten points. In other words, they’re going to keep things close, they’re going to play entertaining games and they’re going to continue to be worth watching. And, somewhere along the line here, they’re going to string a couple of wins together, even if by accident. This week they host Utah and Colorado. They can win those games.

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