Economist and college hoops writer Dan Hanner posted  his annual projections for ESPN Insider on Friday. It is a very interesting article and a recommended read for any college basketball stats junkie. He puts a unique spin on his projections by starting at the player level instead of the team level. The advantage, as he puts it, “is that not all additions have the same impact everywhere. For example, transfer Trae Golden is expected to have a huge impact on Georgia Tech because the Yellow Jackets had a big hole at PG. But if he had been added to a team like Duke, with multiple quality ball-handlers, his impact would have been much smaller. The player-level model can account for these kind of differences.” His rankings take into account player upside as well as downside and he gives a best-case and worst-case position for each team.

Grant Gibbs and Creighton need to shore up their defense to reach their full potential this season.

The Big East is well-considered by Hanner. The league’s 10-team average is 53.9, slightly behind the Big Ten at 49.2 and well ahead of the AAC at 79.9. Last year’s Big East would have scored considerably higher with Louisville in the second spot as well as Syracuse and Connecticut in the top 25. This year, the Big East does not have as many teams at the top with Marquette leading the way at #17, but there is great balance with DePaul the only team lower than #100. It does not look like any teams will be battling for #1 seeds this season, but there could be seven or eight squads fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament come February and March.

The following are the 10 Big East teams in descending order:

• POFF – Projected offense, median prediction for points scored per 100 possessions
• PDEF – Projected defense, median prediction for points allowed per 100 possessions

1. Marquette Golden Eagles

17. POFF: 116.1 | PDEF: 92.5 Best case: 7th | Worst case: 29th

Hanner ranks the Golden Eagles in the same spot as the USA Today poll. Buzz Williams’ squad is ranked highly in both offense and defense, but neither is extraordinarily high. For Marquette to reach its best case scenario, they would need their three new starting guards to come close to last year’s production from the trio of Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue and Trent Lockett, a very difficult task. The frontcourt returns everyone, but Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner will have to become the go-to scorers and also rebound well while Chris Otule locks down the paint defensively. With Williams’ track record, it seems unlikely that his team would drop out of the top 25 unless the guards are unable to step up and contribute at a high level.

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1. Dude, did you eat a bad pierogi at halftime or something? Pittsburgh is down and Gene Collier of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette is not about to let anyone forget it with his ‘piece’ yesterday. One that featured gems like, “Really. Practice some more. Or maybe less.” He also referenced one of Pitt’s players (yes, an amateur, college player) as being “awful.”  Yes, it was written fresh of an embarrassing 62-39 home loss to Rutgers.  Yes, it was the Panthers’ fifth straight defeat.  Yes, it was a game where Pittsburgh had just four baskets in the first half, a stat Collier pounced on. “Pitt made four field goals in the first half. Let me dive on the floor for some perspective on that. If you selected five Pitt students at random, subjected them to zero coaching, let them practice by themselves once a week, kicked each of them in the shins as they walked onto the court, they might get four baskets in 20 minutes.” OK, Gene we will take you up on that and do you one better. Grab four of your buddies, if you can find four, and roll over to The Pete. Try not to kick too many dogs along the way. The clock is set at 20:00.  Let’s see if you can get four buckets against the Panther team you are ripping. They’ll be waiting, as will Jamie Dixon and his 227-66 (.774) overall and 98-42 (.700) Big East record. I just hope I can be there to write about it.
2. Many tout Syracuse as the deepest team in the country.  Well, Jim Boeheim added to his team in preparation to face a different bench as he has hired an attorney to defend him in the slander lawsuit brought by the alleged Bernie Fine sexual abuse victims.  C. James Zeszutek, a managing partner with Pittsburgh’s Dinsmore & Shohl law firm who holds three degrees from Syracuse (including his law degree), will represent Boeheim.  The plaintiffs, Bobby Davis and Mike Lang, brought the defamation suit against Boeheim in indicating that they had ulterior motives in their molestation accusations against Fine.  Zeszutek has expansive experience defending a number of college coaches, including the likes of Jim O’Brien and John Calipari when they were accused of NCAA violations at Ohio State and Memphis, respectively.
3. Speaking of Syracuse’s depth, for how many teams would Dion Waiters start?  Um, most of them?  One of the few exceptions happens to be the team he’s currently on.  After something of an adjustment to a reserve role, the scoring, stealing, sophomore guard is excelling and feeling just fine about his role off the bench.  Waiters confessed, “It used to mess with me a little… I was one of the top 15 players in the country coming out of high school.  I expected to start as soon as I got here.”  Well, he did not, playing in 34 games as a freshman and starting none (6.6 PPG, 16.3 MPG).  Further, in his second year, he still does not.  Waiters has come off the bench in all of the undefeated Orange’s 18 victories to the tune of 22.3 minutes, 12.9 points and 2.9 assists per contest.  He is clearly comfortable with his role, as it has not deterred from his production.  His averages in points and assists are good for second on the team, while his 2.2 steals per game lead the way.
4. We talk a lot about unheralded players here at RTC Big East, and it is finally Davante Gardner’s turn.  Before going further however, an apology is in order.  How could we have missed this guy?  He’s 6’8”, 280 pounds! In all seriousness, Gardner, in fact, has been on the radar.  We have touched upon the aspects of his assuming a bigger role in the absence of injured teammate Chris Otule.  Well, after after career-highs in points (22) and rebounds (15) in Wednesday’s win over St. John’s, Gardner now commands our full attention.  In some ways Gardner (9.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG) is a microcosm of his program and his coach.  Who gushes about #25 Marquette (13-4, 2-2) and Buzz Williams?  Yet, all they do is beat you time and time again. As Williams very appropriately stated on Gardner and his team, “His [Gardner’s] energy level on a daily basis and our team’s energy level on a daily basis determines a lot for us. Energy and attitude say a lot in life and say a lot in basketball.”  Gardner, who came off the bench in the Golden Eagles’ first eight games, has started seven of the last nine for the Golden Eagles, averaging 11.6 points and seven rebounds per game.
5. It is Friday the 13^th and, as luck would have it, a slow news day at time of writing so let’s have fun with numbers and take a look at ESPN’s latest power rankings from a Big East perspective.  Guess what?  Syracuse (18-0, 5-0) tops the list.  The Orange certainly sit head and shoulders above the rest of the Big East, and they seem to be inching away from the national pack as well.  Similar to the national polls, ESPN’s Top 10 consists of no other Big East teams.  Georgetown (13-3, 3-2) checks in next at #13. The Hoyas have been bitten of late, and are riding a two-game losing streak. Connecticut (13-3, 3-2) is sitting right behind Georgetown at #14.  The Huskies were rolling before back-to-back Garden State spoilings by Seton Hall and Rutgers before getting back on track with a victory over West Virginia.  At #24, Marquette (13-4, 2-2) rounds out the Big East power ranking presence.  The Golden Eagles, who are treading water with a 3-4 record over their last seven, have what could be perceived as a softer stretch coming up.  Their next five opponents consist of Pittsburgh, Louisville, at Providence, South Florida and at Villanova.

1. Pittsburgh transfer Khem Birch told Alex Kline of TheRecruitScoop.com he will transfer to UNLV.  Birch visited UNLV, Florida and New Mexico State last week before making his choice. “I really like UNLV,“ he told Kline. “It was a very tough decision but UNLV is a good fit for me because of the coaches, players and facilities… I can develop under a great, young coach in Dave Rice.  He and the entire staff made me feel very comfortable in Las Vegas.”  As a transfer, Birch will have to sit out two semesters.  The timing of the decision was critical as he will be able to enroll in school for the spring semester with the intent of becoming eligible in January 2013.  UNLV has two remaining scholarships that could be used to build upon what is already a monster class of newcomers: DaQuan Cook, Katin Reinhardt, Demetris Morant as well as Bryce Jones, who is a transfer from the Southern California, are all headed to Vegas next year.   The buzz surrounding the two open spots involves three more heavyweights in forwards Anthony Bennett (ranked seventh in the class of 2012 by both Rivals.com and ESPN.com), Shabazz Muhammad (the consensus number one rated class of 2012 recruit) and St. John’s decommit Norvel Pelle.
2. St John’s was involved in the other piece of transfer news yesterday.  Fortunately, this time they found out they were getting one rather than losing one.  Guard Jamal Branch, who left Texas A&M after one semester there, announced he will be suiting up for the Red Storm once he sits out a year under NCAA transfer rules.   Arizona, Marquette and Maryland were also reportedly in the mix.  Branch, a top 100 recruit coming out of Grace Prep in Arlington, Texas, was playing significant minutes (18.6 MPG) for the Aggies as the backup point guard, averaging 4.2 points and 2.5 assists per game.  He cited his relationship with current St. John’s guard D’Angelo Harrison as contributing to his decision. “The players there are pretty cool and with me knowing D’Angelo helped me make my decision,” Branch said. “That’s like my little brother and we always wanted to play with each other. Me and him click well and are looking forward to doing big things here at St. John’s.”
3. It will be a banner evening in Providence tonight when Rick Pitino and his Louisville club come to town to take on the Friars.  This year marks the 25^th anniversary of Providence’s Final Four run under Pitino and the milestone will be celebrated during a halftime ceremony.  With a band of pressing, three-point shooting unknowns such as current Florida head coach Billy Donovan, Delray Brooks and Ernie “Pop” Lewis, the 1986-87 Friars captivated a region and vaulted Pitino to coaching stardom.  “I have always coached every time out, no matter how much time is left in the game, feeling we could come back, no matter what the level was, or the score was, all because of that Providence College basketball team. Because they set the standard, not only for comebacks, but they set the standard for just making me believe that anything is possible,” Pitino said.  The Friars defeated Georgetown, ironically in Louisville, in the regional final before bowing to another Big East foe, Syracuse, in the national semifinals.  Current Providence head coach Ed Cooley will personally enjoy the moment as well.  A Rhode Islander who group up a fan of the Friars, Cooley was star player at Rhode Island’s Central High School at the time. A number of team members are expected to be in attendance, including Brooks and Lewis.
4. The Big East’s weekly superlatives have been dished out and West Virginia’s Darryl “Truck” Bryant scooped up his second Player of the Week honor.  Bryant averaged 27 points per game in Mountaineer wins over Rutgers and Georgetown.  Rookie of the Week went to St. John’s guard D’Angelo Harrison who averaged 21 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games, highlighted by an 18-point, seven-rebound effort in an upset road win over Cincinnati.  Big East Honor Roll recipients this week were: DePaul guard Brandon Young, who averaged 24 points per game including 26 in a win over Pittsburgh; Notre Dame forward Jack Cooley who is starting to become a regular around here;  Rutgers guard Eli Carter, who followed up his Rookie of the Week honor with more strong play; Seton Hall guard Jordan Theodore, who averaged a double-double for the week (16.5 PPG, 10.0 APG) and Syracuse guard Brandon Triche who filled up the stat sheet (16.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.5 APG) to help keep the Orange unbeaten.
5. Say what you want about the overall quality of the Big East this year as compared to recent seasons but one thing is for sure, nobody can ever rest on their laurels, lest they find themselves on the short end of an upset loss.  It was another turbulent week in the conference as evidenced by the latest Top 25 poll.  The only constant of course has been Syracuse (17-0), who was pushed at times on the road by Providence and back home against Marquette, but held firm to their undefeated record and #1 ranking.  The Orange have really separated from the back as they now represent the Big East’s only resident of the Top 10.  Connecticut (12-3), behind losses to Seton Hall and Rutgers, plummeted nine spots to #17.  Georgetown (13-2) lost at West Virginia and slipped two notches to #11 as a result.  Louisville’s (13-3) double overtime loss to Notre Dame cost them three spots as the Cardinals slid to #14.  Marquette (12-4) took two losses last week, and therefore did not hold their ranking, falling five spots to #25.  OK, enough of talking about teams that are struggling.  How ‘bout those Pirates!  Yes, Seton Hall (14-2) coming of a 2-0 week that featured wins over then #8 Connecticut and on the road against Providence, broke in at #24 and is ranked for the first time since 2001.