RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Orlando this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

Xavier Looked Like the Better Team All Day Today (USA Today Images)

1. A hot Trevon Bluiett is nearly unstoppable. There are some players who just need to see the ball go in the net once for their games to completely turn on a dime. That situation happened with Xavier junior forward Trevon Bluiett in tonight’s victory, as he was able to shake off a poor first half (just three points on 1-of-8 shooting) and completely dominate the second stanza in his team’s favor. Bluiett scored 18 of his game-high 21 points after the break, reaching a point where everyone in the gym knew anything he shot was likely going in. Bluiett’s second half tear carried over from his performance at last week’s Big East Tournament when he scored 44 of his 58 points after halftime. Xavier will undoubtedly take Bluiett warming up after halftime if it means more victories, but the Musketeers have to wonder what it would mean if Bluiett was hot for an entire game.
2. Sean O’Mara came off the bench to provide Xavier a consistent post presence. It would make sense if Sean O’Mara had not been a key component of Maryland’s incoming scouting report. The junior big man entered today’s contest averaging a modest 5.5 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, as Xavier is far better known for its perimeter attack than its interior play. You better believe Maryland knows a lot about O’Mara now after he turned in a career-best performance in the 11-point victory. O’Mara finished the game with 18 points (5-of-6 FG and 8-of-9 FT) and seven rebounds. The Terps had no answer for his work in the post, as big man Damonte Dodd struggled all evening and was exploited by the far more athletic O’Mara.
   
3. Maryland was overseeded. It is easy in hindsight to point to problems with how certain teams were seeded, but anyone who watched today’s game will tell you that Maryland was not worthy of a #6 seed. The Terrapins were disjointed for much of the game on both ends of the court, and it often appeared that they were just waiting around for junior guard Melo Trimble to make a play. This was a questionable strategy because Trimble struggled all night, finishing with 13 points on just 5-of-15 shooting. The bracket cannot be changed in retrospect, but you have to think the NCAA Tournament may have been a little better if the Terrapins were actually placed where they belonged.

Player of the Game. Trevon Bluiett, Xavier. The game changed for the Musketeers when Bluiett got going in the second half. The junior Indianapolis native finished the game with 21 points (7-of-15 FG and 5-of-10 3FG) and made his presence felt on the defensive end by nabbing three steals. Bluiett was the best player on the floor throughout the second 20 minutes and Xavier’s win would not have been possible without him coming alive.

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Despite losing four starters from last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad, Maryland has bounced back with a surprisingly strong 22-5 (10-4 Big Ten) record and appears poised to earn its third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. The Terrapins’ this season are once again led by junior star Melo Trimble, who excels in his role as leader and best player, as well as a precocious freshman class that has already produced three new starters (Anthony Cowan, Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter). For this year’s unit to make a run into the second weekend of March Madness, however, head coach Mark Turgeon needs better contributions down the stretch from his supporting upperclassmen.

Maryland needs upperclassmen like Damonte Dodd to thrive as the calendar turns to March. (Patrick Semansky/AP)

Turgeon uses the services of five upperclassmen who contribute between 11 to 20 minutes per game. Seniors Damonte Dodd and LG Gill, along with juniors Jaylen Brantley, Jared Nickens and Michal Cekovsky have all had good moments at some point this year. In the Terrapins’ most recent loss to Wisconsin on Sunday, however, the quintet managed only 15 combined points, seven rebounds and three assists. Their lack of rebounding was especially troublesome because Wisconsin logged a +17 advantage on the glass, including a robust 18 that came on the offensive end of the floor. The Badgers’ frontcourt of Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes combined for 41 points and 17 rebounds, while reserve Terrapin bigs Dodd, Cekovsky and Gill did nearly as much fouling (13) as scoring and rebounding. As a contrasting example, these five supporting players contributed an average of 24.5 PPG in recent road wins against Ohio State and Northwestern. Read the rest of this entry »

After making the NCAA Tournament twice in the last two years, Maryland must now replace four starters from a 27-9 unit that earned a #5 seed and lost to Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. The lone holdover, junior guard Melo Trimble, returns along with the addition of some key recruits, causing voters in both the AP (#25) and Coaches (#21) polls to rank the Terrapins among their Top 25s. While Trimble is a known commodity, much of the rest of the team is not, leading to the key question of whether this edition of Maryland Basketball is actually as good as many people obviously think. Let’s examine that question from three different components.

Melo Trimble needs to shake off a sophomore slump that plagued him late last season. (Leon Halip/Getty Images)

1. Can Trimble Return to His Freshman Form? As a precocious freshman, Trimble burst onto the scene two seasons ago by pacing Maryland in scoring (16.2 PPG) and leading the Terps back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in five years. With more talent surrounding him last season, his assist rate rose to 28.7 percent (from 21.2 percent) but his Offensive Rating (116.5 to 110.7) and shooting percentages (53.4% eFG to 48.2%) decreased. Will he regain the shooting form from a stellar freshman season when he converted 41.2 percent of his attempts from the three-point line? Or will he struggle carrying the load of his inexperienced supporting cast? Maryland needs the first scenario to come to fruition if the Terrapins want to be as good as they were during the last two seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

In three parts over the last week, we’ve examined a key offseason question for 10 of the 14 Big Ten teams. Part I reviewed Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois; Part II featured Nebraska, Penn State and Northwestern; Part III examined Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa. The fourth and final part today examines the Big Ten’s top four teams from this season: Purdue, Maryland, Michigan State and Indiana. (Note: Scout.com used for all player and class ranks).

Purdue (26-9, 12-6 Big Ten)

Dakota Mathias (#31) needs to be a productive three-point shooter again for Purdue. (Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar)

Can Purdue find consistent offensive production from its guards?

The Boilermakers this season possessed one of the most productive frontcourts but one of the least productive backcourts in college basketball. P.J. Thompson boasted a 4.8-to-1 assist-turnover ratio, but the group of Dakota Mathias, Ryan Cline and Kendall Stephens (if he returns) and himself are mainly three-point shooters, none of whom attempted more than 16 percent of his shots at the rim. This group of guards shouldn’t experience much turnover outside of senior Raphael Davis and possibly Stephens, if he transfers, meaning that freshman point guard Carsen Edwards should have every chance to become the starter from day one next year. He’s not very big (5’11”, 175 pounds), but he’s aggressive, mature and a good passer. If he can play well enough to earn major minutes, he’ll mitigate one of Purdue’s clear weaknesses. Matt Painter’s frontcourt should again be a strength, assuming Vince Edwards and Caleb Swanigan return to complement Isaac Haas, whose touches should increase substantially. This team’s Big Ten ceiling, though, might depend on the readiness of its lone freshman.

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Before the season began, both Maryland and Purdue were named in CBSSports.com’s preseason selection of the top 10 frontcourts in America. The Terrapins added two more bigs — Robert Carter and Diamond Stone — to their already strong trio of Jake Layman, Damonte Dodd and Michal Cekovsky, while the Boilermakers added freshman Caleb Swanigan to their duo of A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. As of today, the two teams have combined to go 18-1 with the sole loss by Maryland coming in Chapel Hill against the nation’s preseason #1 team. No matter how you slice it, the Terps and Boilermakers largely owe their excellent starts to their respective frontcourts. So how do their performances compare with the other eight selected by CBS? Let’s take a closer look. [Ed Note: All data was collected before Wednesday and Thursday’s games.]

Caleb Swanigan’s addition to Purdue has taken this team to new heights in the early season. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

The most basic function of any frontcourt is to grab rebounds and protect the rim. The four bar charts below compare these 10 teams’ total rebounding percentages, block percentages, offensive rebounding percentages and defensive rebounding percentages.

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Sometimes it’s best to keep your analysis simple. There are four elite recruits coming into the Big Ten this season, and all of them are large in stature and pedigree. Each is 6’8″ or taller and played in multiple high school All-Star games last spring. Michigan State’s Devonta Davis, Indiana’s Thomas Bryant and Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan could all make huge contributions to teams that have serious aspirations for March glory. But sometimes an award just goes to the player on the best team. In this case, we here at the RTC Big Ten Microsite feel that Maryland freshman Diamond Stone will be the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year.

Diamond Stone is our pick as Big Ten ROY. (USA TODAY Sports)

One year ago, Stone capped off a storied run at Dominican High School in Milwaukee by deciding to head to Maryland. In picking Mark Turgeon’s Terps, he spurned his home state school (along with Connecticut and Oklahoma State) and relations between the two parties on social media haven’t exactly been cordial since. He will bring a polished offensive game that features a variety of post moves as well as the ability to step out to three-point range. Things aren’t as rosy on the defensive end of the floor, but, at a minimum, Stone has the size and athleticism to threaten some shots at the rim. Read the rest of this entry »

Maryland hosted its version of Midnight Madness at the Xfinity Center last Saturday. There is much to celebrate in College Park this preseason as the Terrapins, flush with talent with as many as five future NBA players taking the court, are the favorite to win the Big Ten. With so much professional talent on the roster, it’s no wonder that the smart money is on Mark Turgeon‘s squad to make a significant postseason run next March. This October’s situation is in stark contrast from where this program was just a short 12 months ago. Plenty of stories have already been written about that turnaround, but less has been written about the one issue that can undo all of the hype. Team chemistry among a group still learning to succeed is the one thing that can trip up this Maryland team’s aspirations of conference and national banners.

Melo Trimble looks to lead preseason favorite Maryland to a Big Ten title and Final Four. (David J. Philip/AP)

We can’t talk about potential issues with team chemistry without first talking about the individual players — an incredibly talented group of players, mind you. Maryland returns Melo Trimble, Jake Layman and Damonte Dodd from last year’s conference second place squad. Trimble was the breakout star, leading the team in scoring (16.2 PPG) and assists (3.0 APG) as a freshman. Layman is a lanky, athletic scorer with tremendous upside, coming in third on the team in scoring and minutes a year ago. And Dodd has proven himself as a capable defensive presence in the post, showing even more signs of improvement this season. Additional returnees Michal Cekovsky, Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens make up a deep bench for Turgeon.

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Wisconsin has won 10 games in a row and has done so by an average of 13.9 points per game. The Badgers are 25-2 on the season and, short of a completely surprising collapse down the stretch, are going to be no worse than a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland has been the second-best team in the Big Ten most of the season, with a 22-5 overall record that includes a 16-1 mark at home. The Badgers as six-point favorites tonight, which may not seem like a lot, but it’s rare to have a spread so wide between two top teams in a power conference where the second-place team is at home. The long story short is that not too many people are giving the Terps much of a chance this evening, but here are some ways that Maryland can pull off the big upset.

Melo Trimble needs to control the pace for Maryland if they want to beat Wisconsin. (David J. Philip/AP)

• Push the Tempo: Wisconsin has proven with its current roster that it can play at a much faster tempo than some of Bo Ryan’s past teams. They are athletic enough to handle a higher pace and do not need to stay in a low-possession game to win. But since Traveon Jackson’s injury last month against Rutgers, no Badgers’ starter is averaging less than 32.6 MPG. Admittedly, some of those high totals are because none of the five are ever really in foul trouble, but the other factor at play hers is that the Badgers don’t get much from their bench. Because Wisconsin rarely fouls, Maryland won’t feast at the free throw line as it typically does; this means getting some easy buckets in transition will help offset those missing opportunities while taking advantage of the fact that Wisconsin’s starters won’t get much rest.
• Make Them Shoot From the Perimeter: Another dirty little secret about Wisconsin that has been masked by all the wins is that the Badgers aren’t an elite three-point shooting team this season. That’s not to say that they can’t make shots from beyond the arc, but their 35.1 percent clip from distance ranks a middling 129th in the nation. Josh Gasser (32.1 % in Big Ten games) and Sam Dekker (32.7%) are the primary culprits in their recent futility, but it’s much easier said than done to take away the Badgers’ profound ability to score in the paint. Still, the Terps would be wise to pack things in to encourage a handful more long-range attempts on this night.

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Maryland‘s three best players have all struggled at various times in recent games — one might be hitting shots while the other two disappear. But on Wednesday night the Terps received double-figure scoring from each of Melo Trimble, Dez Wells, and Jake Layman, and as a result of a two-point win over Indiana, were able to move into a tie for second place in the Big Ten. The trio combined for 50 points, and did so on a highly-efficient 18-of-31 clip from the field. Granted, the Hoosiers won’t be confused with the ’85 Bears in defensive prowess anytime soon, but after a dreadful effort against Iowa on Sunday, Mark Turgeon has to be pleased with this performance.

Dez Wells tallied 18 points as Maryland moved to 8-4 in conference play with its win Wednesday night over Indiana. (Getty)

Trimble, Wells and Layman each took turns making plays on the offensive end, exhibiting why Maryland is at its best when they spread the floor offensively. Because all three have a knack for getting to the basket when things aren’t too clogged up inside, the Terps’ offense is at its best when there are abundant driving lanes. There is some size in the interior with Damonte Dodd and Jon Graham manning the post, but neither is much of a threat to score from anything other than putbacks and broken plays. The primary issue this season has occurred when Wells and Trimble get into the habit of taking too many contested twos and Layman has simply disappeared for long stretches. Last night, by contrast, they mixed things up nicely and got much better perimeter looks because the realistic threat of the drive had been established. In turn, Maryland made 10-of-21 shots from behind the arc (six from the trio) and shot 49.0 percent from the field.

Maryland is now 9-0 when its best players reach double-figures, and the Terps have won those games by an average margin of 14.8 points. Granted, that group includes some bad non-conference competition, but it also includes wins over Arizona State, Iowa State, Purdue, Minnesota and now Indiana. Expecting freshmen like Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens to suddenly morph into major scoring threats at this point is wishful thinking, so the ultimate success of Maryland’s season will hinge on whether they can consistently play like they did against Indiana for the rest of the way.

Many sophomores in the Big Ten have a significantly greater role this season than they did as freshmen. That is to be expected, of course, as the offseason between their first and second years is often when players make their biggest strides in development. Some highly-recruited guys, however, continue to disappoint, while others who may not have been so highly regarded have by now become viable contributors for their teams. This series of posts is meant to check in on a few of the different sophomores in the league to determine whether they have improved and what it means for their teams going forward. Next up in the series is Maryland center Damonte Dodd.

Damonte Dodd has given Maryland a shot-blocking presence in the middle this season. (Kenneth K. Lam, Baltimore Sun)

• 2013-14: 7.5 MPG, 0.7 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 0.4 BPG, 36.8 FG, 12.5 FT, 12.1 Usage, 70.3 Offensive Rating
• 2014-15: 16.9 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 62.8 FG, 64.1 FT, 17.0 Usage, 114.6 Offensive Rating

When your starting center plays a season-low two minutes against a team that features two seven-footers, that is not usually a winning recipe in the Big Ten. Yet in Maryland’s road game last Saturday against Purdue, the Terps prevailed despite Damonte Dodd’s chronic foul trouble. Notwithstanding a couple recent poor performances, Dodd has made big strides in his production as a sophomore. Maryland observers thought in the preseason that Slovakian freshman Michal Cekovsky was the likely starter at the center position, but it has been Dodd who has started every game but one. His primary role for Mark Turgeon has been that of a shot-blocker, ranking fourth in the conference with a block rate of 10.9 percent and notching at least two blocks in eight games. He’s also done a tremendous job for the Terps on the offensive glass, where he leads the league in grabbing 13.7 percent of the available misses when he’s on the court. While the offense rarely runs through him in the post, he’s taken advantage of his opportunities with a strong offensive rating that shows an ability to convert. And unlike many developing big men, Dodd has also shown that he can make the pass that leads to a score (0.9 APG).

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