Over the last few years there has been at least one NCAA Tournament bid on the line during the Big 12 Tournament’s opening night. It was Texas making its case last season, with Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State before that. For better or worse, there was no such drama last night at the Sprint Center as the team with the shakiest prospects, Texas Tech, already seems safely in the field. The Red Raiders, however, may have dinged their seed with an upset loss to TCU. The games went on regardless, and Kansas State‘s win over Oklahoma State gives us a third game with Kansas in what will undoubtedly be a juiced Sprint Center this afternoon. Here are some quick takeaways on each team that played Wednesday night in Kansas City.

Kansas State Moves On to Face Kansas on Thursday Afternoon (USA Today Images)

Kansas State. Kansas State’s offense was not pleasant in its last game against Oklahoma State, as a miserable 0.85 points per possession performance resulted in a three-point loss that effectively killed any hopes of a late season run. The Wildcats’ first half on Wednesday night was a different story, as they did a great job utilizing Dean Wade in the high post and Justin Edwards (four first half assists) in keeping the offense moving. This allowed Kansas State to build a 17-point lead that proved insurmountable. Wesley Iwundu admitted after the game that the Wildcats got “too comfortable” with a lead and let Oklahoma State back into the game in the second half. Their date with the rival Jayhawks will not be comfortable, but Bruce Weber said that his team simply needs to “enjoy the opportunity” and compete with them. Replicating their free-flowing offensive effort from last night’s first half will be the only way to challenge a Jayhawks team that hasn’t lost a Big 12 Tournament opener since 2009.

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It is practically March, isn’t it? We’re just four days away. You can almost feel the bubble shrink as at-large hopefuls drop games they shouldn’t be dropping and simultaneously expand whenever a recent winning streak is validated with a big win. As of now, the Big 12’s bubble situation is relatively clear. Barring a flurry of wins from Kansas State within the next two weeks, the conference will send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. The last team among the seven is Texas Tech. When Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 10th a few months ago, how could anyone have seen this coming?

HERE IS THE EVIDENCE. LOOK AT IT. LOOK AT ITTTTTT (Big12Sports.com)

Texas Tech has eight conference wins at this point which bodes well with how the selection committee has historically treated eight-win Big 12 teams. Oklahoma State (twice) and Texas (once) made it safely into the field of 68 with that number in 2014 and 2015. Much has been written about the Red Raiders’ rise from rotten to respectable, and rightly so, but we shouldn’t forget that they’ve gone on this five-game winning streak without the services of starting center Norense Odiase. Tubby Smith is the favorite for Big 12 Coach of the Year and is also creeping into National Coach of the Year discussions as well. Now let’s hope all seven clubs make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Big 12 Power Rankings

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Burning Question: Will inexperience and injuries wreck TCU’s season?

TCU is not your typical power five conference job. In fact, it only became such a job three years ago. When Jim Christian sensed his seat was starting to warm at TCU, he left for Ohio, a less stressful and more comfortable mid-major gig. In came Trent Johnson, a coach who has had a modicum of success at every place he’s been, but who, like Christian, had sensed the pitchforks coming toward the end of his four-year run at LSU.

Head coach Trent Johnson is trying to build some momentum for a TCU program that won 18 games in 2014-15. (Paul Abell/US Presswire)

Johnson’s first two years in Fort Worth were rough for a couple of reasons. First, the leftovers from Christian’s tenure had to adjust to the transition of both coaches and to a much more competitive basketball conference (from the Mountain West to the Big 12). The Horned Frogs under Christian certainly weren’t slayers out west (18-44 in his four years), but they did finish 7-7 in league play the year before Christian hit the road. Secondly, injuries bit them pretty good. In 2012-13, starting guard Jarvis Ray injured his left foot in late December and was lost for the year. Amric Fields, the 2011-12 Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year, suffered a season-ending injury to his knee 12 seconds into TCU’s game against SMU. Conference play hadn’t even begun and the Horned Frogs’ season was all but done.

After an 0-18 Big 12 cratering in 2013-14, last season was Johnson’s first step in the right direction. TCU returned plenty of experience in the backcourt, with two-time all-Big 12 Honorable Mention point guard Kyan Anderson wrapping up a career that finished first in career steals and among the school’s top 10 in nearly every offensive category. Trey Zeigler, a transfer from Pittsburgh, was second on the team in scoring behind Anderson. A 13-0 start was built largely on fluff but winning is winning, and the team did collect a true road win against an Ole Miss team that eventually made the Big Dance. In conference play, the Horned Frogs were also a minute away from beating Baylor at home and a mere 1.8 seconds away from upsetting West Virginia in Morgantown. True to Trent Johnson’s style, last year’s team hit the boards and played stingy defense — TCU finished second in the Big 12 in blocked shots, third in offensive rebounds and ranked 53rd nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defense rating, the program’s highest finish since in nearly a decade. Read the rest of this entry »