Three preseason tournaments get under way today, so we thought it might be worth a minute to review the brackets to see if any of these games are worth anyone’s time. Here’s a brief primer on each:
Charleston Classic – Charleston, SC
When: Thursday, Friday, and Sunday
Should Win: Baylor
Could Win: Murray State
Sleeper: Colorado
Key Match-ups (actual and potential): Murray State vs. Auburn; Baylor vs. Colorado; Murray State vs. Baylor
Players to Watch: Isaiah Canaan, Cory Jefferson, Andre Roberson, D’Angelo Harrison, Frankie Sullivan, Pierre Jackson
Puerto Rico Tip-Off – San Juan, PR
When: Thursday, Friday, and Sunday
Should Win: NC State
Could Win: Tennessee
Sleeper: Oklahoma State
Key Match-ups (actual and potential): Providence vs. Massachusetts; Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State; Tennessee vs. NC State
The non-conference tournaments get under way in earnest this week, and our Pac-12 microsite game of the week takes us to South Carolina for the Charleston Classic, where Colorado will play Dayton in a first round game Thursday afternoon.
Why It’s Important: Get used to this phrase for the next couple of moments, but this is the ultimate RPI boost game for Colorado. Take a look at the bracket for this tournament: If Colorado wins, it will most likely face some two-game combination of Baylor, St. John’s and Murray State. If Colorado loses, then likely dates with Boston College, Charleston and Auburn are on the ledger. Notice the difference in level of competition? Again, the Pac-12, more than any conference, needs as many opportunities to play high-RPI teams as it can get. Going 1-2 in Charleston with a win over Dayton and losses to Baylor and either St. John’s or Murray State is a whole lot better than going 2-1 with a loss to Dayton and wins over Boston College and Charleston or Auburn. Last year, the Buffaloes went 1-2 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, but that win didn’t come until the seventh place game in which they beat Western Michigan after losing to Wichita State and Maryland.
Colorado Player to Watch- André Roberson: An obvious choice, but maybe not for a reason that would be considered obvious going into the season. The only player to average a double-double in the Pac-12 last year, Roberson struggled in the season-opening victory against Wofford, scoring just seven points to go along with six rebounds on 2-8 shooting from the field. After the fact, Roberson agreed with Tad Boyle’s assessment that he didn’t play with enough energy. Never a good thing to hear after the first game of the season, and Roberson can ill afford to give a subpar effort against an Atlantic 10 team that is more than capable of beating the Buffs.
Last week we took a look at the early season exempt events that the Oregon and Washington schools would be participating in this season. Today we’ll take a look at the Arizona schools and, for lack of a better term, the Rockies’ schools, breaking down where they’re going, who they’ll potentially be facing and what impact their successes or failures in those tournaments can have on the rest of their season.
Colorado – Charleston Classic, November 15-18, TD Arena, Charleston, SC
The fifth annual Charleston Classic is not exactly brimming over with great teams, but Colorado lucked out in the draw with an opening round matchup with one of the better teams in the tourney – Dayton – followed by possible matchups with a pair of other teams – Baylor and Murray State – who could be nice scalps for the Buffs, if they’re able to earn them. Of course, the downside of all that is that CU is a team that features six freshmen alongside a pair of sophomore guards, so if the young squad isn’t ready to go from the time the season tips off, they could dig themselves an early hole. To begin with, they absolutely need to take care of business against a promising and experienced Flyers team in the opener. And that starts with game-planning to slow the Dayton’s excellent senior point guard, Kevin Dillard. Last year Tad Boyle’s club did a solid job of limiting dribble penetration from opposing guards, and they’ll need to do the same in this match-up. If they can take care of that battle, expect Andre Roberson, Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson to out-athlete UD up front on the way to the winner’s bracket. Next up could be a rematch with Baylor, the team that ended the Buffs’ season last year, and another challenge for the CU guards, this time in the form of senior point guard Pierre Jackson. And there are decent odds that if somehow the Buffs get on through that challenge, they’ll have another highly regarded point man to face in the finals, in the form of Isaiah Canaan of Murray State. Of those three potential opponents for the Buffs, Baylor will do the most to challenge them along the front line, but by the time Thanksgiving weekend has come and gone, we should have a pretty good idea what that CU backcourt is made up of.
Askia Booker and Backcourt-Mate Spencer Dinwiddie Could Be Seriously Challenged By Elite Point Guards At The Charleston Classic (Cliff Grassmick, Colorado Daily)
Utah – Utah Thanksgiving Tournament, November 21-24, Huntsman Center, Salt Lake City, UT
In lieu of any of the more traditional exempt events, the Utes will be hosting their own tournament in a round robin format with Central Michigan, Idaho State and Wright State the other participants. To be honest, this is not an appealing event in the slightest. Central Michigan is coming off an 11-21 season that led to a coaching change and three transfers. Idaho State was even worse, finishing last year 9-21 but matching the Chippewas’ coaching change and transfers step for step. Wright State had its worst season in a decade in Billy Donlon’s second year, losing 11 of their last 15 on the way to a 13-19 disappointment. Better yet, the Raiders saw four transfers bail on the program, with a fifth opting for early graduation. So, to put it mildly, Utah is not expecting to be embarrassed in front of its home crowd on this holiday weekend. While it may not make for a ton of compelling basketball, it may be just what a Ute team that is bouncing back from its own nightmare season needs. The home folks can get a chance to get real familiar with all the new faces on their roster over the span of a few days, and better yet, they should get a chance to see those new guys have some success and leave the court smiling.
While Colorado has not released an official schedule yet, they’ve released a tentative schedule with times still to be announced and dates to be finalized. Today we’ll take a quick look at their slate and figure out which games we’re most excited about.
Early-Season Tournament: After kicking things off with Wofford on November 9, the Buffaloes head to South Carolina for the Charleston Classic, an ESPN-sponsored tournament whose field this year features maybe four interesting teams. The bracket was just announced this morning and CU will open with Dayton, giving them a chance to score a solid, potentially resume-boosting win in the opening round. If things play true to form in the rest of the bracket, Colorado could get a chance at Baylor in the semifinal there, with Murray State potentially waiting in the championship game. All told, the way the bracket lays out, the Buffaloes have a chance to score three really good wins in Charleston. Of course, the flip side of that is that if the drop their opener with Dayton, they could be relegated to playing teams like Boston College and Auburn in their final two games, matchups that will do no good come March. That Dayton game will be a seriously important game for the Buffs to win.
Toughest Non-conference Game: While their early-season trip to Charleston could give them a couple good challenges, by far their toughest non-conference test will be their trip to Lawrence on December 8 to face Kansas. While Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor are gone, the Jayhawks return Jeff Withey and Elijah Johnson from last year’s Final Four team, while adding a strong 2012 freshman class and gaining the services of a couple highly regarded youngsters who were ineligible last year. Roberson and the rest of the young Colorado frontline will get a serious challenge from Withey, freshman Perry Ellis and company, but it is possible the Buffs will have the advantage in the backcourt. But, as always, regardless of who will be wearing the KU uniforms, the trip to Allen Fieldhouse alone makes it a tough trip.
Andrew Baker is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Sun and Southern conferences.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Belmont Bruins (23-6) (17-3)
ETSU Buccaneers (20-10) (15-5)
Jacksonville Dolphins (18-11) (14-6)
Stetson Hatters (16-13) (12-8)
Lipscomb Bisons (15-14) (11-9)
Mercer Bears (14-17) (9-11)
Kennesaw State Fighting Owls (13-16) (7-13)
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (11-20) (6-14)
Campbell Fighting Camels (10-18) (6-14)
USC-Upstate Spartans (9-21) (5-15)
UNF Ospreys (4-25) (1-19)
What You Need to Know (WYN2K).
Non-Conference. I know how far of a stretch this may seem, but all signs point to an improving Atlantic Sun Conference. Some of you will ask, ‘How can a conference that has been mired in the bottom three of the conference RPI be improving?’ Well it can’t get much worse than 29th in the conference RPI ratings, but there is proof of improvement just over the last two seasons. During the 2006-07 campaign the conference went 1-38 against the power conferences (including Mountain West and CUSA). During 2007-08 the conference went 8-41 with three wins coming over SEC teams (Gardner-Webb over Kentucky, Belmont over Alabama, and ETSU over Georgia). Look for the Atlantic Sun’s top five to play tougher against the power conference teams as all those teams are returning a great deal of talent and scoring. The conference also improved upon their overall non-conference record at 46-108 (.299) last year, with 17 more OOC wins than the previous year (excluding non-D-I games). Look for the Atlantic Sun to pull a few more upsets this fall.
Conference. There are two teams in the Atlantic Sun who are thinking about the three time defending champion Belmont Bruins with an incredible amount of rage. The East Tennessee Bucs and Jacksonville Dolphins are both coming into this season with huge chips on their shoulders after losing to Belmont in last season’s Atlantic Sun Championship semifinals and finals respectively. ETSU hates to be reminded of the circumstances, but for those that don’t know it’s worth watching the below video to see why they can’t wait for their games with Belmont. Jacksonville was never competitive in the final and got completely dismantled by Belmont’s signature three-point attack. Only seven teams are eligible for the A-Sun tournament this year out of the eleven in the conference, so expect a dogfight at the top to secure that first round bye into the semifinals.
Champion. Belmont Bruins (#15 NCAA) – Many will think this pick is made because the Bruins are the three time champions. This is partially correct. The real reason is that the Bruins are 30-2 against conference opposition in February and March over the last three years including the conference tournament. They simply find ways to win late in the season. While Jacksonville and ETSU may have more talented squads, the Bruins make up the difference with superb coaching. Belmont has the longest tenured coaching staff in the conference. Rick Byrd has brought his program along from NAIA in 1996 and found a successful formula for winning in this league that has helped them become the first back to back to back champions the A-Sun has ever seen. It also helps that the Bruins will return four starters (Dansby, Wicke, Renfroe, and Dotson) that have 42.1 PPG between them. Wicke and Dotson have not had a season where they haven’t come out as A-Sun Champions. However, it won’t be easy, as ETSU and Jacksonville won’t be far behind the defending champs.
Others Considered. With the departure of Gardner-Webb, the Atlantic Sun will be one big happy family again without the north and south divisions. What does this mean? Well it means teams like Jacksonville and Stetson will have to play more games against Belmont, Lispcomb, and East Tennessee, which for these teams usually ends in an L. This is not to say that Jacksonville won’t be good. They will be excellent, but they will have to play six games against these teams whereas they only played four against them last year, including the A-Sun Final against Belmont. Jacksonville did not come up with a single W against those three squads. Stetson didn’t fare much better, going 1-2 and losing to Garnder-Webb (North) in the A-Sun Quarters. Both teams will have to expect to run at least 4-2 against these teams to even have a shot at the title. Of the two, Jacksonville has the better shot. The Dolphins return fours starters and most of their production. If Stetson is to win then they will do it with defense. Stetson ranked first in the conference last season limiting conference opponents to only 67.4 PPG and only 27.8% from beyond the arc.
What can you say about East Tennessee State? They had the semifinal game in their grasp to move on to the finals, but one technical and a subsequent missed front end of a 1 & 1 doomed their season (see video above). Does ETSU have the talent? Of course they do. Kevin Tiggs (14.6 ppg & 5.6 rpg) and Courtney Pigram (15.8 ppg & 3.2 rpg) are two of the best players in the conference. ETSU’s supporting cast will be bolstered by the arrival of 6’11” Seth Coy and 6’6” PG Adam Sollazzo, whom ETSU considers one of their finest prospects ever. The presence of a big man should add some depth to the ETSU attack and make them a dangerous team come conference time. The Bucs offense is a potent one, but where they struggled was in assists/turnovers (.802 A/TO Ratio). Turning the ball over 20% of the time is just not going to cut it for any team that has aspirations of a trip to the Dance. Can the Bucs break their duck against Belmont? Maybe, but Coach Murray Bartow is going to have to find a way to get a W against the Bruins to get back to the promised land.
Important Games/Games to Watch: Make sure you jot down any game between that involves Belmont and the following teams: ETSU, Jacksonville, and Lipscomb. Belmont has an intense rivalry with Lipscomb being as that they are only two miles away on Belmont Boulevard and have always fought for attention in the saturated sports world of Nashville. The Battle of the Boulevard has gone into overtime five times since Lipscomb’s move into the Atlantic Sun in 2003-04 including the 2005-06 Atlantic Sun Championship Game. The ETSU v. Jacksonville games should be great as well. The most important game of the year of course is the A-Sun Tournament Championship Game in March as only one team in the Atlantic Sun is going to get to Dance.
Atlantic Sun Championship Game (03/07/09)
RPI Boosters. The Atlantic Sun will be looking to improve on the eight wins they had over power conference opponents last year. ETSU is also going to be involved in the Charleston Classic which should add some quality competition, so keep an eye out on their schedule as well. Here are some dates to keep in mind for the top five:
Stetson @ Texas (11/14/08)
Jacksonville @ Florida State (11/15/08)
Jacksonville @ Georgetown (11/17/08)
Stetson @ Florida State (11/20/08)
Jacksonville @ Baylor (11/24/08)
Belmont @ Pittsburgh (11/25/08)
Jacksonville @ Georgia Tech (11/28/08)
Belmont @ Tennessee (12/20/08)
Stetson @ Miami (FL) (11/29/08)
Jacksonville @ Ohio State (12/17/08)
Lipscomb @ NC State (12/20/08)
Stetson @ Missouri (12/20/08)
Lipscomb @ Indiana (12/28/08)
Stetson @ Florida (12/30/08)
Neat-O Stats.
The Curse of Two. The Atlantic Sun has sent two teams to the dance only once. In 1993-94, the College of Charleston and Central Florida broke through as 12 and 16 seeds respectively. They both lost in the first round. The only teams that were in the league when that happened were the Mercer Bears and the Stetson Hatters. Both the Bears and the Hatters have seen only two winning seasons since.
University of Northern Fail. The UNF Ospreys have had a tough life since joining Division I. The Ospreys have only scrounged five Atlantic Sun wins in their first three seasons. New members Florida Gulf Coast and USC-Upstate both equaled and in FGCU’s case surpassed them with six wins in their maiden seasons. Coach Matt Kilcullen will most likely be feeling the heat this season if they don’t start seeing better results.
65-Team Era. The A-Sun is 3-24 during the modern era, and despite Belmont’s ridiculously close 71-70 loss to Duke last year, they have simply not been able to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament during their otherwise impressive run.
Final Thoughts. The Atlantic Sun should be more fun to watch than it has been in recent years. Expect games between the top five schools to be knock-down, drag-outs. A massive amount of talent returns for these schools and it should be fascinating to watch. Don’t expect to see two bids out of this league unless someone wins a majority of their power OOC games and sweeps through the conference schedule only to lose in the final. Is the Atlantic Sun Conference one on the rise? Only if the Atlantic Sun can muster more OOC wins and their champion can again come close or win a NCAA Tournament game when March rolls around.
