Extrapolating a trend based on a small sample size is usually not recommended in statistics. However, after just three games, we can highlight a few interesting anomalies among the Big Ten teams. Going into tonight’s game against Green Bay, Wisconsin’s rebounding is a topic worth evaluating after two wins over St.John’s and Florida. The Badgers were not outrebounded in either game, but surprisingly, it was their guards who were the dominant rebounders on both nights — Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson and Ben Brust combined for 15 boards against St. John’s and 18 boards against Florida. After the departure of Jared Berggren, it was unclear if Frank Kaminsky could be a legitimate replacement on the glass, but if the guards combine to average 15 boards per game, they may just be fine without a true big man inside.

Josh Gasser is one of the best rebounding guards in the nation.

It shouldn’t be surprising that Brust and Jackson are good rebounders based off last season’s results, but Gasser’s return certainly helps Ryan’s defensive unit. Because of his rebounding abilities, Ryan can play a three-guard lineup with Sam Dekker at the power forward position. Dekker is a “stretch-four,” and is not a rebounding force of nature by any means, but he can light it up offensively with the best of them (averaging 16 PPG so far this season). With the guards hitting the defensive glass, Dekker doesn’t need to worry about rebounding and can just focus on carrying the bulk of the offensive load. Another area where he can benefit from the guards’ rebounding abilities is in transition. He can take off as soon as Gasser or Brust hit the boards, which should spark more fast break opportunities for the Badgers. The third guard can take the outlet pass and start running, which will help the Badgers pick up a few easy baskets. This style would also help Frank Kaminsky, who runs the floor very well for a big man. It is unclear if this trend will continue and if Wisconsin’s tempo will actually increase over the long haul, but so far this season Bo Ryan’s group is using a couple more possessions per game than last year.

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It’s not often that fast and Wisconsin basketball are used in the same sentence. Since Bo Ryan has been the head coach in Madison, the Badgers have been known for playing big men who execute a deliberate style on the offensive end coupled with strong, take-no-prisoners halfcourt defense. During the past five seasons, Wisconsin’s scoring average hasn’t landed in the top half of the Big Ten, and last season it sat at eighth after averaging 66.2 points a game. The Badgers have also ranked in the bottom 25 Division I teams for possessions per game during four of the past five seasons. Well, get ready for a new look Wisconsin squad. With the graduation of several interior players and the return of Josh Gasser from an ACL injury, the Badgers are likely to use three- and perhaps even four-guard lineups a lot more this season.

Ben Brust is one of many guards that Wisconsin will utilize this season.(Photo credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters).

Exactly how often Wisconsin may use a perimeter-heavy lineup isn’t certain, but based on its current roster, the Badgers will be doing it early and often. With the graduations of Jared Berggren, Ryan Evans and Mike Bruesewitz, the majority of the team’s inside presence is gone outside of Sam Dekker. Those three averaged a total of more than 26 points and 19 rebounds a game for the team, with the best returning inside player other than Dekker being Frank Kaminsky, who only averaged 10 minutes per game last season. This makes interior play a huge question mark for this team, but Ryan certainly has plenty of known commodities on the perimeter. As he said at Wisconsin’s media day, “You think 12 guards is a lot?. It just panned out this way. It keeps a very high competitive level in the backcourt and all our drills and all our possessions.”

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The title of this post asks a pretty straightforward question: Who is the best shooter from deep in the Big Ten? Seems simple enough. But how do you define the “best” three-point shooter? Is it the player who makes the most threes? Is it the player who makes the highest percentage of his threes? Is it the shooting specialist who contributes the most to his team’s wins?  The best approach, of course, is to appreciate all three characteristics. So let’s do exactly that and look into the numbers.

Andre Hollins lit it up from deep last year. (AP)

First, we need to create a list of players in the Big Ten who meet certain criteria. For the purpose of this analysis, we will only include returning Big Ten players and use last season’s statistics for measurement. While we recognize that freshmen can be highly effective from long range right out of the gate — look no further than Michigan sophomore Nik Stauskas last year — we have no set methodology for projecting freshman output from their high school performance. Therefore, in the interest of convenience, no freshmen are included in this list. The next criterion is that players must have attempted at least 100 3-pointers last season and shot at least 30 percent from deep. This filters out players with a high percentage from a small sample size of 3-point attempts and gunners who put up too many bricks to be considered top-tier shooters.

The table below displays our initial list of candidates given those criteria, and their pertinent statistics from the 2012-13 season (from basketball-reference.com).

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Semantics matter. And semantics makes this one a no-brainer, in so many ways. No, Sam Dekker does not make Wisconsin a Final Four contender. Now don’t get me wrong, Wisconsin may well indeed be a Final Four contender (a question I’ll get to later), but if so, it is not solely due to Dekker. First and foremost, basketball is a team sport that requires five competent players on the court playing well together. And even in the best of cases, one superstar coupled with four, well, schmucks, does not make for a Final Four team, no matter how good that superstar is. And at a place like Wisconsin with a coach like Bo Ryan, this goes double. Under Ryan’s swing offense, the Badgers are going to run sound fundamental offensive basketball, coupled with hard-nosed stingy defense on the other end of the court, and they are going to take what the opponent gives them. Sometimes that will mean Dekker will be able to have big nights, but on other occasions, Wisconsin is going to need big contributions elsewhere. Even if Dekker has the best year in the history of Wisconsin basketball, the Badgers will still need some help.

Sam Dekker Leading Wisconsin To A Final Four? There Are Plenty Of Reasons To Be Skeptical. (USA Today Sports)

The second thought about this question, even taking away the nitpicking first paragraph of my answer is this: What has Sam Dekker done so far to deserve anything approaching a “yes” answer here? I like Dekker’s game and I know damn well that one of the things that makes Ryan such a successful coach is his ability to get players to improve from year to year. So I fully expect him to significantly better his 9.6 point and 3.4 rebound per game averages from his freshman campaign. And clearly with Mike Bruesewitz, Ryan Evans and Jared Berggren all gone from the Wisconsin front line, there is going to plenty of room for Dekker to pile up minutes and crank up the production. But the fact that those three seniors have graduated means this team is less likely to compete for a Final Four this season than last, a year in which, I might remind you, the Badgers got knocked out in their opening game of the NCAA Tournament. Even if Dekker goes out and averages something like the 19.4 points per game he dropped in Wisconsin’s summer trip to Canada (a nightly average which would be the best year out of a Wisconsin player since Alando Tucker won the Big Ten Player of the Year in 2007), he’s still going to need plenty of scoring help from the returning backcourt of Ben Brust and Traevon Jackson, along with Josh Gasser, who returns from a season lost to an ACL tear. And frankly, while we can expect Dekker to improve, can we really expect him as a sophomore to be as good or better than guys like Tucker or Jon Leuer were as seniors? I think not.

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There’s so much to look back on from this season’s Big Ten, and who doesn’t like receiving an award? So we decided to hand out a few more. Forget Class Clown. Our superlatives are a real honor:

Where does this moment stand against the best of the year?

• Best game: Indiana at Michigan — We’ll get to the climax of this contest in a minute, but this was a heavyweight battle. After Indiana dealt then-No. 1 Michigan just its second loss of the season in Bloomington a few weeks earlier, the Hoosiers came to Ann Arbor with a Big Ten title on the line. If the Hoosiers won, they’d claim the conference championship outright. If the Wolverines won, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State all had the chance to join the Hoosiers on the championship podium. Michigan led by three at halftime before the Hoosiers outscored the Wolverines by four in the second half. And that final play… well, you’ll just have to keep reading.
• Best play: Ben Brust’s half-court three to force overtime and eventually beat Michigan — If Victor Oladipo had been able to finish this dunk in the aforementioned game against Michigan at Assembly Hall, it’d be my choice. But since that shot ends up on the score sheet as just another missed field goal attempt, we’ll go with a shot that actually went in. It looked like Michigan was going to escape Madison after Tim Hardaway, Jr. hit a huge three-pointer with three seconds to go, giving Michigan a 60-57 lead. But Wisconsin took a timeout, and Mike Bruesewitz hit Brust in stride. Brust took one dribble across the half-court line and drew nothing but net. The Badgers went on to win in overtime, with Brust also hitting the game-winner with 43 seconds left in OT.

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Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of RTC. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

Ben Brust has locked down sharpshooters such as Nik Stauskas and Jordan Hulls. (Photo credit: Brian Snyder/Reuters).

Walker Carey is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report from the Big Ten Tournament at the United Center following Saturday’s matchup between Indiana and Wisconsin. You can follow him at @walkerRcarey.

Three Key Takeaways:

Wisconsin Stopped the Hoosiers Again

1. Indiana is still deserving of a #1 seed. Even with the setback to Wisconsin, the Hoosiers still have one of the best resumes of the country. Indiana was the outright regular season champion of the toughest conference in college basketball. The Hoosiers won road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan. It has as much, or more, talent as any team in the country. A record of 27-6 is not usually the record of a #1 seed, but college basketball this season has been anything but the usual. Indiana should still be a #1 seed and it should still absolutely be viewed as a strong contender to get to the Final Four.
2. Wisconsin is the definition of a team. The Badgers certainly do not have any guys who can be considered “stars,” but what they do have are eight players who contribute to every game. Point guard Traevon Jackson is a true point guard who is always looking to make his teammates better. Shooting guard Ben Brust is always a threat to catch fire from deep at any time. Forwards Jarred Berggren, Mike Bruesewitz , and Ryan Evans are all seniors who bring the Badgers extremely tough and disciplined play in the post. Freshmen Sam Dekker and George Marshall along with sophomore Frank Kaminsky come off the bench and routinely make an impact for the Badgers. While there are certainly teams in the Big Ten who have a lot more individual talent than the Badgers, there might not be a team who plays together as well as the Badgers. Wisconsin’s ability to play together as a unit makes it a tough team to beat and a team that should never be taken lightly.
3. Wisconsin certainly has Indiana’s number. With Saturday afternoon’s victory, Wisconsin has now won 12 consecutive games over Indiana. While a majority of those wins came when Indiana was down, it is still quite the amazing statistic. Indiana is viewed by many as the best team in the country, but Wisconsin has defeated the Hoosiers twice this season in fairly commanding fashion. The Badgers’ physical style of play coupled with their deliberate attack on offense frustrates almost every team they play and it could certainly be one of the reasons for their utter domination over Indiana. This is definitely a streak that should be followed as next season comes around because it will be fascinating to see if Wisconsin will be able to top Indiana yet again.

Star of the Game. Ryan Evans, Wisconsin. The senior forward was all over the place for the Badgers. He finished with 16 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and four blocks. Evans also supplied Wisconsin with very capable defense against Indiana’s Christian Watford who is always capable of an offensive explosion. Jared Berggren (11 points and five rebounds) and Sam Dekker (11 points off the bench) were also considered, but Evans was clearly the best player on the court for the Badgers.

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Chris Johnson is a Big Ten Correspondent and an RTC Columnist. He filed this report Friday from the United Center. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

For the first 20 minutes, the best prospective quarterfinal match-up of the Big Ten Tournament was a complete eyesore. Then the game opened up. Wisconsin’s efficient offense churned, Michigan never went away and the Badgers held on for a nine-point win.

Composed offense and disciplined defense from Wisconsin was too much for Michigan to handle (Getty).

1. The First Half Was Bad. Really Bad. Call it good defense, bad shooting or an ugly mixture of the two. Whatever it was, Michigan and Wisconsin came out and laid a cringe-worthy offensive dud in the first half, 37 points of discordant offense, unsightly play actions and wasted possessions. Neither team broke the 0.60 points-per-possession barrier and the Badgers and Wolverines together made just seven three-point shots. This wasn’t totally unexpected; Wisconsin’s fourth-ranked efficiency defense has forced more than a few of the nation’s top offenses into utter dysfunction this season (see a mid-January road win at Indiana), but the miscues were not relegated to one end of the court. Michigan denied easy post feeds to Ryan Evans and Jared Bergrren and locked down the Badgers’ perimeter threats – Traevon Jackson and Ben Brust chief among them. The Wolverines went into the locker room with a three-point lead, and untold amounts of offensive frustration. By its own lights, Wisconsin couldn’t have felt much better. The second half presented the prospect of another soporific offensive slog.
2. Wisconsin’s Shooting Really Picked up. Somewhere between that 5-of-29 first half and the opening possession of the second half, Wisconsin had a long-range epiphany. That’s the only way to explain how the Badgers knocked down six threes in a second half just minutes after one of the worst shooting halves of its season to date. Brust knocked down three bombs from distance, all of them coming at seemingly opportune moments – whenever Michigan clawed back, whenever Trey Burke or Mitch McGary would energize the pro-Wolverines crowd with a nifty layup or a strong post move, Brust closed the door. But Wisconsin’s second-half offensive uptick can’t be spun in such simple terms. The Badgers poked and prodded on the inside, with Bergrren, Evans and Mike Bruesewitz physically manhandling Michigan’s big men on the offensive end. Traevon Jackson directed a precise and efficient offensive attack, and Michigan’s defense, so strong for much of the first half, couldn’t hold firm for the second 20 minutes. Once Wisconsin found itself on the offensive end, and kept up its almost mechanically predictable stingy defense, Michigan couldn’t keep up. Read the rest of this entry »

Deepak is a writer for the Big Ten microsite of Rush The Court. Follow him on Twitter for more about B1G hoops at @dee_b1g.

During the preseason, it was clear that the Big Ten was loaded and well respected by the pollsters because four teams – Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State – were ranked among the top-15 in the nation. Despite the conference’s depth, the historically overlooked Wisconsin Badgers received some well-deserved respect and were also ranked in the Top 25. But after Josh Gasser’s season-ending injury before the season even started combined with four non-conference losses – Florida, Creighton, Marquette, and Virginia – Ryan’s team dropped out of the rankings and had to sort out their issues with the backcourt. Big Ten Nation of course was well aware that Ryan has never finished worse than fourth in the conference since he took over in Madison. The conference season re-ignited the Badgers and now they stand once again as one of the top teams in league play with a 10-4 record. Despite the lack of offensive firepower due to Gasser’s injury and the departure of All-America guard Jordan Taylor, his backcourt mates Ben Brust and Traevon Jackson have locked down some of the best guards in the conference to make Wisconsin a strong contender for the Big Ten title and beyond.

Ben Brust is one of the best defensive guards in the Big Ten.

Before we discuss Brust and Jackson’s defensive impact, let’s review the numbers to prove that they are the best defensive backcourt in a league filled with offensive talent. The Badgers rank first in two key defensive categories: opponents’ effective FG% (41.1%) and opponents’ long-range shooting (26.2% 3FG). All of the top guards in the Big Ten – Trey Burke, Keith Appling, Jordan Hulls and Andre Hollins – have been a victim of this killer defense from the Badgers’ backcourt. Ryan’s teams have always been known for their intensity on defense and they ranked second in those categories during 2012 as well. Their opponents shot 29% from three last season, still three percent higher than this year. This boost in Wisconsin’s perimeter defense has resulted in the Badgers allowing just 0.91 points per possession compared to 0.96 last year. This shows that Brust and Jackson have been a great duo who understand their roles and execute Ryan’s defensive game plans very effectively.

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1. It appears this almost certainly will not be that year for Northwestern. The Wildcats have come close to making their first-ever NCAA Tournament in the past few years, but they’ve experienced a number of setbacks over the course of this season. The latest is particularly troublesome: Jared Swopshire, a graduate student and Louisville transfer, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the season. With senior Drew Crawford already suffering a season-ending injury (shoulder), the Wildcats are now even more shorthanded without their top scorer and top rebounder available. Offensively, this means more pressure on breakout player Reggie Hearn and Dave Soboloweski. As for rebounding, the Wildcats will need more of their bigs to step up and help Hearn (who by default becomes the team’s leading rebounder) on the glass.
2. Nathan Palm writes that last year Ben Brust was somewhat of a bipolar player from the non-conference slate into Big Ten play. He was supposed to be a sharpshooter but he shot only 30 percent in Big Ten play. He impressed at times during Wisconsin’s non-conference schedule but fell off the map during conference games. This year has been a different story. Brust was the hero in a huge home win against Michigan last weekend, but he has come a long way in a number of different facets of the game. He’s started every Wisconsin game this season, averaging a team-high 34 minutes. His scoring average has risen by more than four points per game, and he trails only Jared Berggren in team scoring. Wisconsin’s strengths this season on paper are mostly in the frontcourt, but Brust has given the surprising Badgers another important offensive weapon.
3. It’s been an up-and-down year for Illinois. The Fighting Illini surprised just about everybody by jumping out to a 12-0 start and beating Butler on its way to a Maui Invitational championship and Gonzaga in Spokane. But once Big Ten play hit, they took a serious dive. John Groce’s team lost six of seven games at one point before its latest resurgence, including wins against ranked foes in Indiana and Minnesota. So where do we place them now? Dave Wischnowsky says it’s still too soon to consider the Illini a lock for the NCAA Tournament, despite its slew of quality victories. The Illini have by and large fallen too far to compete for a Big Ten title, but can still do some major damage in the conference. Four of their last seven games are on the road, with contests remaining against Michigan and Ohio State. There’s more work for them to do.
   
4. Here’s an unfamiliar role for Ohio State in recent years: the spoiler role. The Buckeyes may have fallen out of contention for a Big Ten title after their latest loss to Indiana over the weekend, but they can still manage to do plenty of damage. They’ve already got four conference losses, and the winner of the conference may have as few as three or four. It’s unlikely the Buckeyes will run the table, as they’ve proven to be quite vulnerable this year with games against Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan State remaining on the schedule. OSU may not be league title contenders this season, but this group is as talented as any in the league and it would not be wise for any team to take them lightly.
5. Bob Knight is a legend of Indiana basketball. Yet the famed coach-turned-broadcaster doesn’t have a good relationship with the program, and he rubbed some salt in that wound when the Hoosiers traveled to Ohio State this weekend. “I used to coach a little bit,” Knight said in a taped recording before the game,”and there’s nothing like Ohio State basketball.” Sorry, Bob, but Ohio State doesn’t have anything on Indiana basketball. And your feud with the program is just plain silly. Grow up.