Over the next four weeks we’ll be taking a step back and looking at each team in the ACC to assess where each program — and the conference as a whole — stands before we totally turn our attention to the 2013-14 season later this fall. Today’s target: Maryland.

Where They Stand Now

Mark Turgeon’s Second Year Doesn’t Look Any Easier Than His First.

Unfortunately it appears to be “two steps forward, two steps back” for Mark Turgeon’s Terrapins. Last season Maryland became a darkhorse contender on the backs of a solid coach, Terrell Stoglin, Alex Len‘s improvement, and a very good recruiting class. Then Stoglin was suspended for violating team rules, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the sophomore guard who had many public confrontations with Turgeon last season went pro rather than sit out next year. Maryland also suspended Mychal Parker, who took his talents to Loyola though he probably won’t be academically eligible there. With a disappointing 17-15 season in the rearview mirror, Turgeon’s Terrapins need immediate improvement to keep the suits in College Park from getting nervous. Speaking of suits in College Park, keep an eye on athletic director Kevin Anderson, who was reportedly headed to Stanford before everyone denied the claim and leading to this tepid retraction.

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1. Washington Post: This isn’t directly linked to the ACC (if you’re looking for a more explicit, albeit indirect connection, be my guest), but I think John Feinstein hits the nail on the head regarding officiating. Officials are refereeing too many games. Period. I thought the officiating in Sunday’s Elite Eight games was no different: travels went uncalled and charges and blocks felt decided by reputation. Feinstein argues the NCAA should pay officials more and mandate fewer games. I whole-heartedly agree, though I think the hardest part is how to regulate the regular season pay of officials, especially those from smaller conferences. This is a problem, and I expect the NCAA to at least look into it over the offseason.
2. Tobacco Road Blues: Amidst many (including myself) calling for Mike Krzyzewski to win ACC Coach of the Year, at least one Duke fan thinks the polar opposite. The argument: (1) Coach K refused to change his defensive system despite knowing his team’s weaknesses (very similar to the criticism Roy Williams took during 2009-10 for not adapting following Ty Lawson’s departure); (2) he didn’t give Michael Gbinije enough run; and (3) Krzyzewksi didn’t give Quinn Cook enough run. I’m going to have a longer response to this later, but I can see the arguments.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: With reports piling up that Austin Rivers will be leaving Duke for the NBA draft, Rick Bonnell hypothesizes that Rivers may be better off in the NBA anyway. I’m not sure I agree that Rivers’ personality caused problems in Durham. It’s clear he clashed at times with Coach K, but nothing ever really boiled over. I also agree Rivers’ game is very suited for the NBA — especially if a team gets someone to reconstruct his jumper during the offseason.
4. Testudo Times: I think this is a pretty reasonable look at Alex Len and his future, though I think Dave Tucker is underselling Len’s shot-blocking ability and its importance going forward (he could be a John Henson type of player as he gets more acclimated and stronger). I also think it’s important to temper expectations about Len’s offensive production. Yes, bigs generally make a huge leap between their first two seasons, but Len never struck me as a dominant offensive player. He’s definitely a guy who can average 10 points per game (give or take a couple — many coming off rebounds), but he’s got to develop a reliable 15-footer before he’ll be a serious offensive threat.
5. Yahoo! Sports: North Carolina played 32 minutes of great basketball. Somehow the Tar Heels managed to run the offense smoothly without Kendall Marshall. Sure there were signs like blown fast breaks and intercepted passes, but for the most part the Tar Heel offense ran very well, that is, until Bill Self switched to a triangle and two defensive scheme. The hybrid defensive scheme simultaneously locked down Harrison Barnes and Reggie Bullock, while causing Tyler Zeller and John Henson to virtually disappear. A lot of people will rip Roy Williams for his team’s inability to deal with the switch. But this team doesn’t have elite shot creators (despite what Barnes’ projected skills were). They kill you in transition and with unparalleled passing from Marshall. Without him, it’s pretty surprising Williams had his team playing as well as they did. Still it was fascinating how effective the defensive switch was (only allowing three points in the last eight and a half minutes of play).

1. Orlando Sentinel and Tallahassee Democrat: Coley Harvey’s post from Friday is looking prophetic after the Seminoles collapsed (with a little help from bad luck to boot) down the stretch against Cincinnati. For the first time since their incredible turnaround — which is worth reading about too — Leonard Hamilton’s team looked complacent. The Bearcats out-hustled them down the stretch, including the forcing of a couple untimely turnovers. Still, don’t lose sight of the forest through the trees: The fact that this Florida State team was in the Final Four discussion is a tribute to the incredible job Hamilton did with this team.
2. Sports Illustrated: Florida State may be gone, but the ACC has another conference Cinderella in NC State. Last night Hubert Davis (a North Carolina graduate) picked the Wolfpack as his team outside of the top two seed lines to make the Final Four. Given that you don’t want to put too much weight on late night TV comments, but it’s shocking Mark Gottfried’s team is in that discussion (frankly, it’s a little surprising the Wolfpack made the NCAA Tournament at all).
3. CBSSports.com: Jeff Borzello checks in on the status of Virginia’s program under Tony Bennett. While I am much less optimistic about next year, his comments definitely alleviate my concerns about Bennett’s ability to recruit top-100 guys with his system. Those concerns won’t totally evaporate until Bennett puts together several years of solid classes. As for next year, losing Mike Scott alone will be devastating. The Cavaliers’ goal in 2012-13 should be to compete in conference play and make the NIT.
4. CBSSports.com: Unless you locked yourself in a lead box last night, you probably heard that Kendall Marshall broke his wrist in UNC’s win over Creighton. Gary Parrish found out that Marshall will have surgery today and is questionable for Friday’s game against Ohio. He’ll be evaluated after the surgery, but it’s tough to envision a way that Marshall plays this weekend. The good news for the Tar Heels is their first game is against a #13 seed, and John Henson is healthy again. The bad news is that Marshall is the Tar Heels’ most important player.
5. Washington Post: Liz Clarke sat down with Mike Gminski to talk about Alex Len. It sounds like Gminski is pretty high on the Maryland center’s prospects going forward, especially once Len gets his English down. He also brings up a good point that the biggest increase in productivity for big men normally comes between freshman and sophomore year (see: CJ Leslie). I still don’t know if I see Len as an all-conference game changer next year, but he should definitely only get better as he gets in better shape and more accustomed to his new team.

Maryland ended up losing by 16 thanks to five garbage time points. But the story of the game was John Henson‘s injury, which forced Roy Williams to use alternative line-ups for much of the game.

• There may be a more serious chasm between Mark Turgeon and Terrell Stoglin than I originally thought. Stoglin kept Maryland in the game. He got trigger happy at times, but his shots fell far more than any other Terrapin starters. At one point in the second half according to Adam Smith (I was behind the North Carolina bench), “Turgeon, stomping: ‘I can’t coach him!’ after Stoglin wasn’t listening.” Obviously, you don’t want to read too much into Turgeon’s frustration in a game that was spiraling out of control quickly. But those two need to be on the same page.
  

  Terrell Stoglin And Mark Turgeon Need To Resolve Their Differences.

• North Carolina has an embarrassment of riches up front. Even after Henson’s wrist injury, the Tar Heels got 14 points and eight rebounds from James Michael McAdoo in just under 30 minutes of playing time. McAdoo got criticized after preseason expectations were much more than he delivered. But his game looked a lot more polished against Maryland. Offensively he brings a lot of things that Henson doesn’t (after the game Kendall Marshall mentioned his ability to face up and slash to the basket). He’s also an incredible worker. Even potentially losing first team All-ACC forwards Henson and Tyler Zeller, North Carolin should still own one of the best front lines next year thanks to McAdoo.
• Maryland’s front line needs some work. Alex Len blocked a couple of shots early, but he and James Padgett combined to go 0-7 from the field (and 0-2 from the charity stripe) and only hauled in four rebounds in 34 combined minutes of play. That’s not going to cut it. Ashton Pankey and Mychal Parker put up a strong effort off the bench, combining for 15 points and 12 boards.

Miscellaneous notes:

Henson’s wrist was x-rayed and the results reportedly came back negative. He didn’t play because he was having trouble grabbing the ball. Sounds like there will be a MRI and he’ll be reevaluated tonight and tomorrow.

It’s also worth noting that Kendall Marshall continued his improved offensive play, knocking down 3-4 threes. It can’t be said enough how much harder that makes the Tar Heels to guard.

1. ESPN: First, I wanted to start off with one of the more insane statistics I’ve heard in a while. According to the ACC office, the cumulative score of the last 75 Duke–North Carolina games is 5,858 to 5,857 in favor of the Blue Devils. One point separates them. The series is just as tight over that same stretch with the Tar Heels holding onto a slim 38-37 lead. Basically, this rivalry is insanely competitive and played at a very high level (the last time one of the two schools wasn’t on the top seed line at the Big Dance was in 2003).
2. Washington Post: Alex Len is coming around to ACC play after strong games against Miami and North Carolina. He struggled early in conference play, largely because of poor defense and lackluster conditioning. But Mark Turgeon’s strategy to try to make Len more confident (along with his workouts) has definitely paid off. Maryland may not be a very good ACC team this year, but it’s impossible to argue that the Terrapins aren’t competitive.
3. ACC Sports Journal: No one questions Tony Bennett‘s coaching. But partially due to his style of play, partially due to local recruiting rivals (Georgetown, Maryland, and Virginia Tech) and partially due to the program’s relative lack of prestige, there’s a very legitimate question about whether Bennett will be able to recruit and keep top area talent. It doesn’t help that four of his “Six Shooters” (Bennett’s first class) departed early. That said, if Bennett can bring talent to his system, the Cavaliers should be able to become a perennial ACC contender.
4. Oxford Public Ledger: I thought this article best captured the Blue Devils’ struggles against Miami. That game also reactivated my Reggie Johnson man-crush. Seriously, why did the basketball gods have to hurt his knees and keep him from getting in better shape? Back to the article, what’s especially interesting is Duke’s performance on the road versus at Cameron Indoor. Basically, the Blue Devils are playing significantly better on the road (they didn’t play Florida State and Virginia, two of the best defensive teams in the country on the road, but still). Duke needs a leader to step up and motivate this team to fight through every possession. It was abundantly clear that Duke was the better team on both ends of the floor in the second half against Miami, but it ran out of gas down the stretch.
5. Raleigh Telegram: Lefty Driesell is back in the news. This time it’s to dispute an account (which has since been corrected) in Sam Walker’s ACC Basketball. The book described a scene after Dean Smith convinced one of Driesell’s recruits to attend North Carolina instead of Davidson. Walker wrote that Smith offered his hand and Driesell spit in it. Driesell is emphatic that he did not spit. The other interesting anecdote from the book DG Martin brings up is about the South Carolina – Maryland blowout, which was called off because of a bench-clearing brawl with five minutes left to play. Interesting stuff.

EXTRA: Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus developed a fool-proof system for filling out the NCAA Tournament bubble with RPI and KenPom rankings: Add them together. It’s so simple it’s beautiful. It’s also quite accurate, never missing more than three teams.

The Terrapins lost to North Carolina on Saturday after a valiant and hard-fought game where it looked like Mark Turgeon had his old mentor Roy Williams on the ropes early on. How did Maryland get the jump on the Tar Heels? By relying on a tactic that Turgeon has been reluctant to embrace all season: perimeter pressure. On the season, Maryland has forced fewer turnovers than almost every team in the country, posting a defensive turnover percentage of 16.9% which puts them at somewhere around the 325th best in the country in this category. Worse, when it comes to steals, Maryland is the second worst team in the entire country, managing a takeaway on only 5.8% of defensive plays.

Mark Turgeon Should Consider Letting His Team Gamble More On Defense

Yet, going into the under-eight minute timeout in the first half, sure-handed Tar Heel Kendall Marshall already had five turnovers. Mark Turgeon unleashed the dogs on the Tar Heels and their perimeter pressure rattled North Carolina. It was an effective tactic that kept UNC’s guards off-balance and helped key an early lead for the Terrapins. Certainly North Carolina rallied to win the game and Kendall Marshall going forward only turned the ball over once more on his way to a 16-assist game. Still, the game was competitive when it probably shouldn’t have been.

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It’s been something of a down year for sensational ACC freshmen after last year’s excellent class. Still there have been some real gems, and though the Rookie of the Year Honor was pretty much wrapped up by the time the first conference game was tipped, most spots on the ACC All-Freshman Team are wide open. A lot of highly-touted recruits have flopped or underperformed, a lot of talented guys haven’t won minutes over their more experienced teammates, and in general, the youngsters have played pretty inconsistently. If voting for the All-Freshmen team was held tomorrow, here’s who I would vote for.

• G Austin Rivers (Duke)

Rivers Was Anointed An All-ACC Freshman a Long Time Ago

Barring a miracle, Rivers has Rookie of the Year wrapped up. Leading a top-flight Duke team, he’s the only freshman whose average has cracked double digits. He leads the balanced and talented Blue Devils with 14.1 PPG. Rivers game isn’t perfect; he struggles to do much beyond scoring and his offensive efficiency leaves something to be desired at 103.2. Still, he’s the leading scorer on the best offense in the ACC and that makes any other deficiency seem somewhat trivial. If highlight reel appearances were a statistical category, Rivers moves would leave all the other rookies in the dust.

• G Shane Larkin (Miami)

With an expected backcourt of Malcom Grant and Durand Scott leading the talented Hurricanes, it didn’t seem like there was a lot of room for 5’11” freshman like Larkin to get a lot of playing time beyond spells off the bench. Somehow though, Larkin proved so valuable to Jim Larranaga that the Hurricanes went to a three guard lineup starting the energetic guard alongside his more experienced teammates. In his first year, Larkin has already managed to jump to the top of the ACC steals charts, averaging 1.9 SPG alongside Lorenzo Brown and Jontel Evans. In terms of tempo-free statistics, Larkin leads the ACC, getting a steal on 4.8% of opponents posessions (this also happens to be the 14th best mark in the nation). Outside of being an all-round pest on defense, Larkin leads ACC freshmen with 2.5 APG and shoots a very respectable 37.5% from behind the arc. With these skills, Larkin is going to be breaking the hearts of other teams fans for the foreseeable future.

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Wednesday night was a night of valiant efforts, but no surprises. Despite the underdogs’ collective success at keeping games close, Goliath withstood David’s slings and the ACC standings are starting to finally look understandable. Without Glen Rice Jr., Georgia Tech was no match for the still-hot Florida State Seminoles who put the Yellow Jackets in the rear view with a dynamic closing stretch. Boston College, formerly a high-octane scoring attack, tried a more traditional underdog approach with a hideous burn offense that slowed the game with North Carolina State to a crawl. Despite some notable efforts to try to give away the game in the second half, Boston College still faltered in its end-game execution and Mark Gottfried and his crew walked away with the win.

Turgeon Got Run, But Maryland Proved It Has Some Fight

The real excitement of the night was in the Maryland at Miami game. While it looked like it was going to be a by-the-numbers blow out, Maryland coach Mark Turgeon took exception to a referee call late in the second half, kept arguing, and finally got ejected. The Terrapins, rallying behind the guy who stood up for them, suddenly started playing some inspired ball. That combined with the absence of any true post players for Miami (Kenny Kadji was injured while both Reggie Johnson and Raphael Akpejiori fouled out) resulted in a remarkable turnaround that turned a double-digit deficit into a double-overtime thriller. It wasn’t the prettiest game, and before all was said and done, Durand Scott, Sean Mosley, and Nick Faust also fouled out of the game. Scott’s 24 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists would prove to be the deciding line of the night. Though Terrell Stoglin scored an impressive 33 points, he did so only after taking an I-still-can’t-believe-it 20 three-point shots. Though Maryland lost, Stoglin’s will, and the key defensive play of Alex Len means that the Terrapins leave Coral Gables feeling that their team is tough enough to hang in the big games and that their coach believes in them.

The Only Game In Town

• Duke at Virginia Tech at 7:00 PM on ESPN

1. Baltimore Sports Report: Patrick Guthrie offers his three suggestions for Mark Turgeon going forward. First, play Mychal Parker more. Parker was Gary Williams’ prized recruit coming into last year, but never really found a spot in the line-up. This year, he’s shown sparks of greatness and been more effective than freshman Nick Faust in particular. Second, get the ball to James Padgett. You never would’ve heard anyone say those words last season, but this year Padgett has shown flashes of developing a little like Richard Howell did over the last season for NC State. Finally, Guthrie asks Turgeon to pump the brakes on Alex Len. Here I’m a little more wary, as Len could be a crucial building block going forward. And his major “needs work area” seems to be adjusting to the physicality and athleticism of ACC play.
2. Bright House Sports Network: Newly elected baseball Hall of Famer Barry Larkin sat down with Tiffany Greene to talk about his son at Miami. Shane Larkin has served the invaluable role of spark plug (think very poor man’s Nate Robinson) off the bench this year. Most people expected him to see very limited playing time because of Miami’s depth in the backcourt, but his strong play seems to earn him more and more minutes.
3. Washington Post: Dorian Finney-Smith came to Blacksburg as the most touted recruit of Seth Greenberg’s tenure. He started the season off on fire, dominating the Hokies early opponents with double-doubles. The majority of his work was on the glass, but he was a capable scorer too. But the rigors of conference play have undermined Finney-Smith’s play. Having to guard Harrison Barnes certainly didn’t help, but based on all of Greenberg’s praise I expect Finney-Smith to end up just fine.
4. Washington Post: Virginia‘s newest addition, Teven Jones, said the transition to college wasn’t too bad. Jones reclassified to join the Cavaliers this month. He won’t play (except on the scout team), but the time should give him the chance to learn Tony Bennett’s offensive system as well as get in some valuable academic credits. Luckily, Jones’ postgraduate school, Fishburne Military School, employed the pack-line defense. Probably the most interesting part of the article was Steve Yanda’s point about midyear classification becoming more popular in football (it basically gives you extra practice time), but not as much in basketball because it would take recruits away from their high school coaches midseason.
5. Morganton News Herald: Roy Waters’ “Birth of ACC Hoops” is back for its third installment. This one is a little more local in taste, but I think it’s a good reminder of how regional sports used to be. To be fair, Roy Williams was born and raised in North Carolina. But none of the other conference coaches hail from their schools’ respective states (though, one interesting potential trivia nugget is both Brian Gregory and Jeff Bzdelik are from Mount Prospect, Illinois).

Being a big man is tough. Your job is to set screens, battle for position, and when you get it, hopefully your guards will get you the ball so that you have a chance to score. Failing that, you can always hope to grab an offensive rebound from a missed shot for a putback. Good coaches of course get their big men to do more complicated things than that, but boiled down to the bare essentials: This is the life of a forward or center.

If you have a big man who is skilled on offense, you want him to get as many touches of the ball as possible to give him plenty of chances to score. In general, this is the easiest way to score in college basketball (provided you have a skilled offensive big man). For some reason, Maryland has decided to ignore this principle. The Terrapin forwards and centers take a good number of shots, but it’s mostly due to their own skill at getting offensive rebounds. Outside of that facet of the game, the Terrapin big men barely get a chance to score. At least, that’s what my eyes kept telling me after watching Maryland play against Temple and Florida State. So I decided to go to the numbers and check.

Poor Maryland Bigs

Sure enough, outside of super role-player Miles Plumlee, the main three Terps in the frontcourt rotation have fewer field goal attempts per game than any of the other talented rebounding forwards in the ACC once offensive rebounds per game are subtracted. This is odd, because though Maryland has the near-magical scoring power of Terrell Stoglin, this is a team that often has trouble on offense. While Sean Mosely is a very capable offensive player, Pe’Shon Howard and Nick Faust have not provided any kind of offensive efficiency from the guard position, posting offensive efficiency ratings of 80.0 and 83.9, respectively. That’s ugly. Meanwhile, touch-starved James Padgett, Ashton Pankey, and Alex Len are posting offensive efficiency ratings of 108.4, 113.4, and 96.5, respectively. Padgett and Pankey’s ratings are easily the second and third best on the team after Stoglin, and Len’s lower rating (caused by turnovers) hides the fact that he leads the team in true shooting percentage with an incredibly solid 63.0% mark.

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