The 2012 NBA Draft is scheduled for Thursday, June 28, in New York City. As we have done for the last several years, RTC’s team of writers (including Andrew Murawa, Kevin Doyle, Evan Jacoby, Matt Patton, and Danny Spewak) will provide comprehensive breakdowns of each of the 35 collegians most likely to hear his name called by David Stern in the first round on draft night. We’ll work backwards, starting with players who are projected near the end of the first round before getting into the lottery as June progresses. As an added bonus, we’ll also bring you a scouting take from NBADraft.net’s Aran Smith at the bottom of each player evaluation.

Note: Click here for all published 2012 NBA Draft profiles.

Player Name: Harrison Barnes

School: North Carolina

Height/Weight: 6’8” / 230 lbs.

NBA Position: Small Forward

Projected Draft Range: High Lottery

Barnes has perfect form on his polished mid-range jumper (AP Photo/G. Broome)

Overview: Harrison Barnes became the first ever freshman to be named on the preseason All-American team back in 2010-11, as the #1 recruit in his class was expected to become a monster contributor immediately for North Carolina. That tells you all you need to know about Barnes’ highly scrutinized career. He had a longer adjustment period than expected, but Barnes had become an easy 15-20 point scorer by the end of his freshman season. As a sophomore, he averaged 17.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game as a steady contributor on both ends. But he never truly lived up to expectations, as Barnes was not a dominant player during his two seasons, and he struggled in his final run of last year’s NCAA Tournament. Nonetheless, he remains an elite prospect with prototypical small forward size and athleticism. He has an extremely polished mid-range game that features advanced pump fakes, jab steps, and of course a great jump shot. His 6’8” and strong frame allows him to get his shots up over anybody, and he has range out to the three-point line. He’s added 15 pounds since his freshman year and was the best overall athlete at the Draft Combine, recording the fastest three-quarter court sprint and highest standing vertical leap amongst other notable numbers. Barnes does not attack the basket like his physical profile and skill set suggest he can, which leaves reason to believe he can eventually become a more complete offensive weapon. While he may never reach the Kobe Bryant-like comparisons that were made in high school, Barnes is a safe bet to be a consistent scoring threat in the NBA with solid athleticism and a strong feel for the game on both ends.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday we analyzed this year’s NBA Draft Combine physical measurements, highlighting several players who posted notable numbers. Today we have a chance to dissect the athletic testing results, in which the Chicago Combine puts all competitors through a series of agility drills and strength assessments, enabling scouts to see which players display the greatest raw athletic ability. There’s probably more to gather from the testing portion as compared to the measurement sets, but the same rule applies that it’s difficult to draw any direct conclusions about how a player will translate his raw physical attributes into a live game setting. There’s no better example of that than Harrison Barnes, who developed a reputation during his two years at North Carolina as primarily a jump shooter, someone who doesn’t attack the basket as much as he prefers to face up on defenders and shoot pull-ups. But at the Combine, Barnes was the single most impressive athlete in camp. In the testing portion involving 52 competitors, he finished with the greatest vertical jump and fastest full sprint while cracking the top 10 of the bench press. Though Barnes was an effective scorer in college, his unwillingness to attack the basket was concerning. Barnes’ raw numbers at the Combine are suggestive that he should have greater success attacking in transition and getting to the rim than he did. But can he put his athleticism to use most effectively during the flow of the game at the next level? That’s the question NBA scouts are now asking themselves.

There’s reason to believe Harrison Barnes can be a more efficient offensive player (AP Photo)

Barnes finished third in the ACC in scoring last season at 17.1 PPG on a team loaded with other offensive weapons, so it’s not like he failed to produce offensively as a Tar Heel. But digging deeper into his numbers, his overall efficiency output matched what the film showed, which is that he didn’t capitalize on his touches nearly as much as he could have. Barnes’ offensive rating (measuring a player’s point output per 100 possessions) of 108.1 did not even crack the top 20 in his conference, meaning that he didn’t produce points at a very high level given the amount of possessions that went his way. Given his great size (6’7″ without shoes), Barnes can shoot over defenders nearly any time he wants in the mid-range, but he decided to make that his go-to move in college. His true shooting percentage of 52.8% as a sophomore was very average for someone with his skill set and shooting ability. Also consider that his free throw rate (measuring FTA divided by FGA) of 37.4% didn’t crack the ACC’s top 20. If he can become more aggressive then there is clearly much room for growth in Barnes’ offensive game, the one thing that could propel him to make a leap to become a great NBA player.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that Harrison Barnes‘ sophomore season has ended and the inevitable backlash against the young man for his 20-61 (32.8%) shooting performance in the NCAA Tournament has commenced, it’s time to take a step back to determine what we can learn from the endless hype and hyperbole surrounding a player who has suffered an enormous amount of pressure since the moment when he Skyped Roy Williams from his Ames High School gym to commit to North Carolina.

Harrison Barnes: Victim of Hype?

Barnes was projected as an AP preseason first team All-American before he’d even played a game of college basketball, and after a strong close to a somewhat enigmatic freshman season that earned him an honorable mention nod, he was placed on the AP preseason first team again this year. With today’s announcement of the 15 players selected as 2012 AP All-Americans and his name again nowhere on the list, we have to wonder how so many people continue to get it so wrong with this kid? It’s one thing to drop from the preseason first team to honorable mention once, but twice in consecutive years? Either he’s got a Pixar-like public relations department on retainer, or he’s simply not as good right now as everyone seemed to think.

Consider this argument made by CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish back on Halloween, as two (of 65) AP voters had the temerity to leave Barnes off of their preseason ballots:

Vote for an All-American team, you had to do two things:

1. Put Jared Sullinger on it.
2. Put Harrison Barnes on it, too.

After that, do whatever you like. […] Anything within those guidelines is reasonable. But omitting Sullinger or Barnes is indefensible. […] Barnes only received 63 of a possible 65 votes, which means two people who supposedly cover college basketball for a living didn’t vote for the most talented player on the nation’s most talented team […] there’s no intelligent way to defend not including him on an All-American ballot.

Was Parrish’s stance a reasonable position at the time? Maybe; maybe not. In the last decade, only three other players were consensus AP All-Americans in the preseason: Jason Williams (2001-02), Tyler Hansbrough (2008-09), and Jared Sullinger (2011-12). In all three cases, the player was returning from a First Team All-America season which had resulted in individual national honors (Williams and Hansbrough had won at least one NPOY award, while Sullinger was the national FrOY). Maybe the two AP voters in question saw something that the rest of us missed after last season; or maybe they simply weren’t comfortable putting someone on the team whom they felt hadn’t yet shown he could consistently bring it.

Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Zagoria asked Charles Barkley who he would take first in the NBA Draft this year, and he responded, “I’m not sure if I would take that kid [Anthony Davis] No. 1″ because “that Barnes kid is a stud.” As the “Round Mound of Rebound” (which is too long to be a nickname anyway), I’m not surprised Barkley has questions about Davis’ weight. If I was concerned with size though, I think I’d take either Jared Sullinger (a slightly undersized big with a nose for the ball) based on production or Andre Drummond (Drummond has more physical tools than anyone I have ever seen live) based on upside.

But I want to ignore the weight issue for the time being. I want to talk about John Henson and Anthony Davis.

Davis Got the Block, but Henson Played a Better Game (credit: Larry Vaught)

Watching the North Carolina-Kentucky game, one couldn’t help comparing Henson and Davis. They’re both extremely tall (with 7’4″ wingspans!), great shot blockers and unfairly athletic. Henson is listed as 6’11”, 220 pounds, and Davis is listed as 6’10”, 220 pounds. If I had to guess, the heights are fairly accurate but both weights are generous. Both Henson and Davis are very raw offensively, though Henson is trying to extend his game to include a face-up jumper this year.

Read the rest of this entry »

You would think that after naming Harrison Barnes an All-American before he played a single game, and then having him struggle through the early part of North Carolina’s season, that folks would be a little bit hesitant to predict how well Barnes is going to play this season. Yet, here we are, without a game in the season played yet, and once again, he’s a preseason All-American. I mean, he did have a sensationally strong close to the year, highlighted by a 40-point outburst against Clemson during the ACC Tournament. Still, for a player who so publicly failed to meet the sky high expectations laid out for him last season in the early going, the skeptical few have to at least entertain the possibility that Barnes is once again overrated relative to what he’s actually accomplished and is capable of.  Yet, despite this cautious approach, some take the other tack; suggesting that Barnes is, despite being a clear leader on a dominant team, somehow underrated. What can we expect from the sophomore wing when the season tips off? Is Barnes over-, under-, or appropriately rated?

Is Barnes Do For A Sophomore Slump Or Will He Just Keep Improving?

Well, to turn to a totally impartial panel, Barnes, Roy Williams, and his teammates all think that he’s gotten even better than he was in March.  “Exponential” is the word Williams uses for his rate of improvement. Citing improved ball-handling, better physical conditioning, and simply learning the offense, there is a strong case that Barnes totally deserves his preseason plaudits.  Still, the skeptics have to wonder? Is improvement for Barnes even a likely outcome? Is the “sophomore slump” a real phenomenon or just a turn of phrase?

Read the rest of this entry »

Typically, the announcement of preseason All-Americans is something that we pass over, but when today’s list was announced it caught our eye. It appears that the Associated Press has decided to get with the 21st century and named Harrison Barnes as a 1st team preseason All-American making him the first freshman to receive the honor since the AP began bestowing the honor before the 1986-87 season. Although Barnes was technically the last man on the team with 17 out of 67 possible votes, by far the fewest of any member of the 1st team, it is remarkable that he achieved recognition that players such as Carmelo Anthony, Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, and John Wall never did. Still, Barnes, who like every other freshman, was left off the preseason Wooden Award list will have his work cut out for him trying to match the production of some of the most prolific freshman (many of whom made the final All-American team), but based on what we have heard out of Chapel Hill he might have a chance.

Barnes: The 1st AP Preseason All-American Ever

Here is the rest of the first team with the number of votes out of 67 possible votes that they received from the AP voters:

• Kyle Singler, Duke (65)
• Jacob Pullen, Kansas State (53)
• Jimmer Fredette, BYU (49)
• JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (46)
• Harrison Barnes, UNC (17)

Singler, the top vote-getter, is the lone returning AP preseason 1st team All-American although he was only honorable mention when the end-of-season picks were made last year. It is worth noting that none of the members (John Wall, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Wesley Johnson, and Scottie Reynolds) from of last year’s All-American team returned to school and none of them were on the preseason All-American team from a year ago so keep that in mind although we have a feeling we will be seeing a few of this year’s preseason All-Americans on multiple All-American lists at the end of the season.

And the winner is:  North Carolina.

In a school assembly/press conference televised by ESPN-U, #1-ranked Harrison Barnes chose Chapel Hill as his home for at least the next year, and in doing so launched UNC’s recruiting class and national championship prospects for next year into highly rarified air.  In addition to Barnes, the Tar Heels have secured commitments from 13th-ranked Reggie Bullock (a 6’6 shooting guard) and 19th-ranked Kendall Marshall (a 6’4 point guard).  Not only does this secure top-notch players at three different spots on the floor for Roy Williams, it also stacks players behind the highly-touted fellows he’s already got in uniform. 

As opposed to picking up and putting on a hat or lowering a banner, Barnes announced his decision by moving to a podium and “Skype-ing” his coach of choice.  The crowd erupted when he said, “Hello, Coach Roy Williams?” and Williams — accompanied by the rest of the Tar Heel squad — appeared live on the large screen set up next to Barnes.  Props to Barnes for his original approach in announcing his school; it looks like a little competition is developing here, in its own right.  It will be interesting to see what future recruits come up with when they’re announcing their decisions on live television.  In a few years, kids will stand at a podium and say, “I’ve been working with some guys at MIT, and I will now teleport myself to the school that I’ve chosen…”

Kentucky may have taken last year’s recruiting title, and Ohio State may have had the early lead this year — but (to paraphrase from Good Will Hunting) the Tar Heels have responded, and they have responded with vigor.  Duke, Kentucky, Kansas…it’s your move.

The nation’s presumptive #1 player in the Class of 2010, Harrison Barnes, will make his college choice official this afternoon at 4pm ET on ESPNU.  Nervous but hopeful coaches and fans from his top choices of Iowa State, UNC, Duke, UCLA, Oklahoma and Kansas will all be tuning in at the end of the work day to hear whether it will be their favorite school that makes a huge leap in Final Four potential and a national title chances in 2010-11.  According to Seth Davis, nobody but nobody knows what Barnes is going to do this afternoon, so let’s briefly break down each of his choices (in no particular order) to see what makes the most sense for the 6’7 superstar from Ames, Iowa.

• Iowa State – Never count out the hometown school.  ISU is a stone’s throw from Ames High School, and Barnes is undoubtedly familiar with the campus, players and coaches to a degree much more than the others.  In fact, his mother works there.  Stud inside force Craig Brackins is likely to be in the NBA in 2010-11, but Barnes could potentially be seen as a savior in much the same way Michael Beasley was for the Kansas State program in 2007-08.  Similarly, his presence at ISU, even for one season, could impact the recruiting fortunes of the Cyclones for the next five years. 
• UNC – Roy Williams never lacks for talent, but he could use an elite scoring wing next season to supplement his formidable size inside.  The 6’10 freshman John Henson is currently playing that role, so there could be a little bit of an overlap if Henson develops into a very nice player this year and sticks around in 2010-11.  Still, Roy has often had multiple Burger Boys at each position, so it wouldn’t shock us if Barnes signs with UNC today and if you’re listening to people around Barnes, MJ (who else?) is his idol.
• Duke – Necessity, meet invention.  If Duke lands Barnes this afternoon, the Devils will immediately shoot to the top of the 2010-11 ratings.  We’ve covered this before, but assuming that Kyle Singler sticks around for his senior year, there’s no other team in America who will have the firepower that a lineup of Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Kyle Singler and Mason (or Miles) Plumlee could bring to bear.  That’s a NASTY lineup, and Barnes is tailor-made for Duke’s system of slashing and shooting.  If Barnes is ok with leaving his home state (and we think he is), this is our projection as to where he lands.
• UCLA – Ultimately, this choice depends on how much the winters of Ames suck compared to those in Westwood (and we’re pretty sure they do).  If Barnes had an unbelievable visit at UCLA, this is a possible choice, but we wouldn’t call it probable.  Plus, some of the same issues that UNC has about obvious playing time exist, with the young forward corps of Drew Gordon, Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee likely to return in 2010-11.
• Oklahoma – Jeff Capel has been a surpisingly good recruiter thus far as the head coach at Oklahoma, and the mere fact that Barnes is listing OU as a finalist belies that point.  With Blake Griffin and Willie Warren, Capel will have had consecutive all-americans who both stayed in school for at least two seasons.  And with Tony Crocker entering his senior season, the minutes will be plentiful on the wing should Barnes alight to Norman.  Still, we just don’t see it happening.  Other than the hometown school, one of these five out-of-state schools isn’t like the others, so it would be a tremendous coup if Capel pulls this one off.
• Kansas – Bill Self is clearly hoping that if he loses star freshman wing Xavier Henry after one season, he’ll have Barnes waiting in the wings to replace him in 2010.  And it makes sense.  Regardless of what happens this year, KU will definitely lose team leader Sherron Collins and probably lose Cole Aldrich inside.  The Henry brothers are also possibilities.  Just to be clear, Kansas doesn’t re-build, but it would be unreasonable to expect next season to be as rife with possibility as the current one, even with Barnes on board.  The minutes will be there if Henry leaves, but Barnes can’t possibly know that now. 

Here’s our completely speculative projection of Barnes’ list a mere 2.5 hours before he unveils his top choice. 

1. Duke – everything makes sense for Barnes there – title contention, PT, academics.
2. Iowa State – the hometown school is always in play.
3. UNC – Roy is a master salesman, but how does he explain the Henson situation?
4. Kansas – Bill Self could be telling him that Henry is likely to leave, therefore the wing is all Barnes all the time.
5. UCLA – the weather won’t supplant the other issues (minutes, perceived style of play).
6. Oklahoma – Capel should be happy to have just gotten onto his list.

Keep up with all the Harrison Barnes hype this afternoon at the Des Moines Register’s page devoted to him.

For weeks there has been speculation that Harrison Barnes was thinking seriously about returning to UNC for his sophomore season so his announcement today that he was in fact returning should not come as a major surprise in the way that the announcement by Perry Jones shocked the basketball world, but it is still remarkable. Going back less than six months Barnes was the talk of the college basketball world as the first freshman preseason All-American and the consensus #1 pick in the NBA Draft. At the time it was a foregone conclusion that Barnes would spend a single season in Chapel Hill before taking heading to the team that won the NBA Draft Lottery. In between that period a funny thing happened that just might help save college basketball.

Barnes turned down NBA riches for another year in Chapel Hill

Read the rest of this entry »

Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski is never one to shy away from his opinions on the state of college basketball. In fact, just last year, Coach K voiced his concerns about college basketball’s current era of the “one-and-done,” the highly touted freshmen who dominate the sport for a year before advancing to the NBA Draft mere months after arriving on campus. Krzyzewski stated just last year that he was “worried that that is always becoming a thing,” referring to the idea of elite freshmen overshadowing established upperclassmen. He has also made it clear that he is in favor of a two-year draft rule, and has backed this notion as recently as the end of October. All of this makes it surprising that the Blue Devils head coach admitted on Thursday that he fully expects his latest freshman phenom, Jahlil Okafor, to be Duke’s latest one-and-done player.

It Appears That Jahlil Okafor Will Reside For About Nine Months in Durham

“We won’t have him long,” Krzyzewski said, implying that Okafor is more of a short-term rental than a centerpiece for years to come. This shouldn’t surprise anyone should the big man leave school — since 2007, only a single player who was named #1 on the ESPN 100 recruiting rankings stayed in school for more than one year (Harrison Barnes, North Carolina 2010-12). The freshman is going to be closely observed by NBA scouts from the second he touches the floor at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and, barring some kind of strange collapse, he is almost guaranteed a spot in next year’s NBA Draft Lottery.

Read the rest of this entry »