There aren’t many things clear as we head into this week’s Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis. We know that the Wolverines are the best team in the league, but several question marks remain about the other 11 teams. The following are three initial thoughts about the tournament’s draw.

Tom Izzo needs to make sure his team gains confidence before the NCAA tournament.

1. Two teams that have a lot to prove in Indianapolis: Iowa and Michigan State. Both of these squads are limping into the tournament and they need to gain some confidence before they head to the Big Dance. The Hawkeyes were stunned at the buzzer by Jon Ekey’s Illini on Saturday and appear to have no clue on the defensive end anymore. Devyn Marble continues to impress, but the rest of his teammates need a jump start soon or this group will be an early upset in both tournaments. Under the assumption that the Hawkeyes beat Northwestern on Thursday, they will then face the Spartans on Friday, a team that has its own set of issues. Against Ohio State, Michigan State played fairly well, but Tom Izzo’s team didn’t seem to have a clear leader on the floor at the end of the game. This shouldn’t be very surprising because it has been a while since all of their starters have played together, but they need to use their time this weekend in Indy to figure out any lingering issues with team chemistry. From a seeding perspective, both teams could stand to win a couple of games here to shore up their positions — for Iowa, to get away from the #8/#9 game; for Michigan State, to remain a protected top-four seed and possibly move up to a more favorable #3 draw. Read the rest of this entry »

Checking in at No. 4 on the RTC All-Big Ten countdown is Iowa’s Roy Devyn Marble. Marble has carved out a nice career at Iowa, where his dad Roy Marble is the program’s all-time leading scorer. The senior has improved in each of his four seasons with the Hawkeyes, raising his scoring average each year as his role on the team continued to grow. On a team full of talented offensive players, there is no doubt that Marble is Iowa’s go-to guy and will be the key to any success the Hawkeyes have in the postseason.

Devyn Marble (middle) is the fourth best player in the Big Ten.

Why Roy Devyn Marble is the fourth best player in the league: Iowa has turned into an offensive juggernaut in the Big Ten and Marble leads an offense that is first in the Big Ten in scoring average (82.6 points per game) and fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.21 points per possession). He averages 17.0 points per game himself, which ranks sixth in the conference this season. He is also 10th in the league in assists at 3.5 per game, 10th in three-pointers made at 1.6 per game, and fifth in steals at 1.8 per game. Over his career in Iowa City, he has turned himself into a complete player and versatile weapon who can attack off the bounce as well as burn a defense with hit long-range shot. Marble has been a consistent offensive threat all season, with 12 games of 20 or more points, and while Iowa has struggled lately, Marble has continued to produce at a high rate (20+ points in five of the team’s last six games). The Hawkeyes have lost five of those six games, but those defeats can’t be attributed to Marble’s play; rather, it has to do with the team’s general lack of defensive intensity, as indicated by a porous 1.06 points per possession rate that they give up in the Big Ten.

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1. Everybody knew that Michigan had essentially wrapped up the outright title before the weekend had begun, but there was still something special about their win over Indiana on Saturday. UMHoops tries to summarize the Wolverines’ magical journey to the conference title, despite losing their big man Mitch McGary in early January. Jordan Morgan, an unheralded role player that helped the Wolverines, was emotional after the win. When asked about his composure during the ceremony, he said, “That was pretty calm compared to when they had to do The Journey interview, I couldn’t even finish that interview.” It is likely that the Wolverines will be a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and are definitely a favorite to reach the Sweet 16 or beyond.
2. Tom Izzo‘s press conferences have been, for lack of a better word, interesting, over the past week or so. After the loss to Illinois a week ago, he lashed about the energy levels of his squad and after the loss to Ohio State on Sunday, he didn’t hide his frustrations either. Right after the loss, he “exchanged a few words,” with a fan in Columbus and he didn’t appear to be happy at the presser. Couple of the reporters pushed him about the fan and he responded: “She was kind of a jerk.” Putting the issue with the fan aside, the Spartans lost a close game and they might need at least two wins in the Big Ten tournament to lock up a top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
3. Illinois‘ roller coaster season took another turn on Saturday as Jon Ekey nailed a three at the buzzer to upset Iowa on the road. With an 18-13 record, the Illini are not sniffing the NCAA Tournament, not yet at least. But with two wins in the Big Ten Tournament, anything is possible especially if the Gophers drop their first game in Indianapolis. For starters, John Groce’s squad will be in the 8/9 game, and the Illini should be able to find a way to win especially if Kendrick Nunn continues to have a big impact. When asked about his team’s huge win on the road, Groce said, “Obviously for our team to finish with winning three in a row on the road, it kind of adds to that momentum.”
4. Continuing with the Big Ten Tournament theme, the Illini will try to get past Indiana in the first round. So what’s interesting about the game, other than the fact that both teams are trying to end their season on a high note? Tom Crean’s team will be sporting special adidas uniforms for the game. “Our players are excited to have something that will be unique to their time at Indiana,” Crean said, when asked about the uniforms. Back to the game itself, the Hoosiers split the series with the Illini this year, but have favorable match-ups specifically at the point guard position because Yogi Ferrell should be able to get scorch the Illini backcourt, but expect Kendrick Nunn to take the primary defensive assignment of stopping him. 
5. After a disappointing season, Purdue head coach Matt Painter is taking responsibility for his team’s performance. After a tough loss to Northwestern, Painter said,”First of all, it’s my fault. It’s my job to get guys to play together, it’s my job to get guys to play hard, it’s my job to get guys to play smart, and we don’t do any of those. And so that is my fault.” Even though the head coach appears to be very harsh on himself, the Boilermakers’ future isn’t too bleak. Two key juniors next season, A.J.Hammons and Ronnie Johnson, should be pivotal players not only for their team, but also in the Big Ten. Both of them are still learning their position, but they have the athleticism to excel as they mature in their careers.

It’s the final weekend of the regular season and teams are either jockeying for seeding or trying to get on the right side of the bubble. Later this afternoon, Michigan State will travel to Ohio State and, with both teams clearly in the NCAA Tournament field already, this game will be about building momentum for the Big Ten Tournament and beyond. Once again, RTC Big Ten writers Alex Moscoso and Brendan Brody preview the game as they each ask one another a question about the today’s match-up.

Keith Appling and the Spartans’ offense try to keep the momentum going against Ohio State on Sunday. (Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)

AM: In its last two games, Ohio State’s defense (#2 in KenPom) has underperformed against two inferior teams (Indiana and Penn State). Meanwhile, Michigan State’s offense (#18 in KenPom) has been inconsistent since the beginning of February. In the match-up between the Buckeyes’ defense vs the Spartans’ offense today, which comes out on top, and why?

BB: It’s hard to say whether Michigan State’s performance Thursday night against Iowa was simply the result of Iowa’s porous defense or a sign that the Spartans are once again fully healthy and clicking on all cylinders. Numbers like 1.26 points per possession, 58.3 percent shooting from the field, and 20 assists on 28 made fields goals, aren’t anything to take lightly, whether they were accomplished against the league’s third-worst defense in conference play or otherwise. Part of the problem for Ohio State in its two losses is that the Buckeyes let their opponents shoot 38.7 percent from three even though they forced an average of 17 turnovers. The Spartans hit 11 threes the first time these two teams played, and after witnessing Thursday’s offensive clinic, I think they’re going to get the best of the Ohio State defense. Thad Matta’s team wins on defense by eliminating the three, but Michigan State is a bad match-up because of the way they share the ball (11th in the country in assist rate), and how they can spread things out in transition with multiple shooters that can burn you. Kenny Kaminski, Travis Trice, Adreian Payne and Appling all shoot over 40 percent from distance for the season, and Gary Harris is 16-of-33 in his last four games from that distance. I think the Iowa game showed what everyone thought at the beginning of the season. Michigan State is about to go on a run, and Ohio State won’t stop them this afternoon.

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When Keith Appling nailed his first three-pointer against Iowa on Thursday night, a sense of reserved joy and nervous hope emanated from the Breslin Center crowd. After all, the beleaguered Spartan point guard hadn’t hit one since suffering a wrist injury in February that sidelined him for three games, not to mention stunted his offensive production — no one knew if this was a blind squirrel finding a nut, or a sign of positive things to come. But when Appling sunk his second triple, capping off a 12-point scoring explosion that marked his best output since January? The arena sounded much more confident this time around, booming with an optimism that not even a senior night victory could manufacture alone. Instead, the cathartic roar acknowledged a greater possibility: If Appling is once again a viable a weapon on the offensive end, Michigan State is once again a Final Four threat.

If Keith Appling is truly back, the Spartans could be set for another March run. (Leon Halip/Getty Images North America)

Entering Thursday, Michigan State had lost three of its previous four games and Appling looked completely inept when it came to putting the ball in the basket. He scored two points in the home loss to Nebraska, one point against Purdue, and combined for 11 in back-to-back defeats to Michigan and Illinois. But while the 6’1’’ senior’s inability to score was troubling enough, his inability to even threaten to score was a much larger problem. Pre-injury Appling was a skilled shooter and an aggressive attacker, both skills that (in addition to his role as facilitator) took pressure off of and opened up shots for shooting guard Gary Harris, the Spartans’ most dynamic offensive player. Whether it was a waning shot clock or a team-wide offensive funk, the ability for Harris or Appling to penetrate-and-kick, finish at the rim, or get to the free throw line, enabled Michigan State to generate points in difficult circumstances. When the point guard hurt his wrist, sapping him of confidence and causing him to continuously defer, much of the burden was placed on Harris’ shoulders — and defenses knew it. Down the stretch against Illinois, for example, the team looked lost as the sophomore tried, time after time, to create his own shot to little avail. “For a long time, Gary had to do everything,” Tom Izzo mentioned after Thursday’s game.

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Next up on our countdown of the RTC all-Big Ten team is Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky. Bo Ryan’s had a number of big men who could shoot over the past few years — Keaton Nankivil and Brian Butch, to name a couple — but Kaminsky is so unique because of his combined ability to drive to the basket and hit the perimeter shot with ease. Without Kaminsky’s 13.3 PPG, the Badgers wouldn’t be second in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.13 points per possession. Outside of just pure scoring, his main contribution to the team is his versatility and flexibility.

Frank Kaminsky is the fifth best player in the Big Ten.

Why Frank Kaminsky is the fifth best player in the league: During the first two months of the season, Kaminsky showed that he can put up points with ease, but the main reason behind his ranking here is his performance over the last five games. During a key stretch of the season, he averaged 17.4 PPG against the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan. After a mid-season slump when the Badgers lost five of six games, Kaminsky led them back to top-15 status and making them a lock for a top-three NCAA seed. It is clear that he isn’t just a three-point shooter, as he has begun to attack the basket consistently with a signature turnaround move in the paint. Few big man defenders can come out to the perimeter to guard his three-point shot off the pick-and-roll and at the same time cycle back on defense if he chooses to take it to the rack. His versatility is indicated the following metrics: 62.9% TS and 41% 3FG.

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1. Indiana more than likely saw their already slim NCAA Tournament hopes dashed by losing to Nebraska 70-60 on Wednesday night. Despite some flashes of quality play in some of their impressive wins they have gotten at home, this has really been a puzzling team to figure out through most of the season. Mediocre is a strong word to use for a team that lost two NBA lottery picks and two other senior starters, yet still has a 17-13 record. Inconsistent and unpredictable might be more apt terms to describe the 2013-14 Hoosiers. Their poor non-conference schedule hasn’t done them any favors as far as their resume goes, and it’s also lead to a team not being prepared for Big Ten play.
2. Minnesota unexpectedly is losing a player who started 23 of their 30 games this season. Oto Osenieks is ending his basketball career after it was determined that a knee injury that he’s had multiple surgeries on simply is too damaged for him to continue on. Joey King has taken over the starting power forward spot, so look for he and Charles Buggs to continue getting the majority of the minutes at that spot.
3. Ohio State faces a crucial test Sunday afternoon when they take on Michigan State. The game is significant because it’s Senior Day for Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. But Shannon Scott says that it’s more important to get the win “to get (us) into the best situation we can for the tournament.” Scott also said in the interview that he likes his role coming off the bench due to the fact that he can “fit in where (he) can and figure out what the team needs at the time and try and do it.” With Keith Appling of Michigan State having his best game in quite some time last night against Iowa, the Buckeyes will need big efforts from both Craft and Scott on Sunday night to make Senior Day a memorable one.
4. Michigan’s sophomore class- especially Nik Stauskas, Caris LeVert, Glenn Robinson III, and the injured Mitch McGary- garner most of the headlines and publicity for the recently-crowned Big Ten regular season champions. But you can’t overlook the contributions of freshmen Derrick Walton Jr, and Zak Irvin. They both have showed much more consistency as the season has gone along, and Coach John Beilein believes their improvement has been the key to turning things around after a shaky non-conference part of their season. Both have had played really well and they have both blended in seamlessly as the season has gone along. Michigan has had some outstanding players make substantial jumps between their first and second seasons in Ann Arbor, and if this trend continues, Walton and Irvin will be Big Ten mainstays for as long as they are donning the maize and blue.
5. Switching over to the other Michigan school in the league, Adreian Payne and Keith Appling played their last game in East Lansing for Michigan State last night when they beat Iowa 86-76. The pair are victims of the program’s past success, as they and fellow senior Dan Chapman will have been the first senior class under Tom Izzo to have not played in a Final Four. It hardly seems fair that many will view their time with the program to have been unsuccessful unless they advance four spots into the bracket without taking a loss. The Spartans took a small step toward that goal however by impressively beating the Hawkeyes. Appling looked to be much more comfortable, and if he really is healthy finally, this team can be just as good as everyone thought in the preseason.

Continuing today with our countdown of the RTC all-Big Ten team, the sixth best player in the league as voted upon by our writers, is Kevin ‘Yogi’ Ferrell. Ferrell came in with high expectations from the media and fans this year, and he hasn’t disappointed from an individual perspective. He was Indiana’s top recruiting prize in 2012 – ranked #25 overall, according to RSCIhoops.com – and, after the NBA exodus by Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo last spring, it was Yogi’s turn to step up and become the focal point of Tom Crean’s offense. And step up he did.

Yogi Ferrell has been the brightest star for the disappointing Hoosiers.

Why Yogi Ferrell is the sixth-best player in the league: Ferrell has been the only elite and consistent scoring threat for Indiana this season. The team has had a relatively disappointing year and it’s scary to think how much further the Hoosiers would have fallen without him in the lineup. In the preseason, there was some uncertainty about whether Ferrell could transform into an full-time scorer (he averaged 7.6 PPG his freshman season), especially given his woeful shooting from deep (30.3 percent). But he’s answered questions about his game affirmatively by coming into the last game of the Big Ten regular season fourth in scoring (17.7 PPG) and leading the league in three-pointers made (81) and three-point shooting (42 percent). This has resulted in a top six Big Ten standing in effective field goal percentage (53.1 percent), true shooting percentage (58.2 percent), and offensive efficiency (1.19 points per possession). And even though he’s stepped his game on the scoring side of thing, he’s been able to maintain his solid assist rate from last season — at around four per game. He’s been clearly the best player on a team that would be in dire straits without him this season.

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Michigan may have clinched the Big Ten, but Iowa‘s trip to Michigan State tonight has plenty of importance for Big Ten Tournament and NCAA seeding. The Hawkeyes are in a battle with Nebraska and Ohio State for their first top-four finish in conference play since they tied for fourth during the 2006-07 season. Michigan State, on the other hand, is trying to get some confidence with its entire lineup finally healthy. For both teams, it is an important contest in terms of momentum, so with that in mind, here are two key questions heading into tonight’s game:

Roy Devyn Marble and the Hawkeyes desperately need a win at Michigan State for NCAA Tournament seeding purposes (Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports).

1. Both Iowa and Michigan State have had skids recently (losing three of four with each winning versus Purdue), so which team needs this win more for confidence and NCAA Tournament seeding purposes?

Realistically both teams need this win, but Iowa probably needs it more than Sparty. The Hawkeyes ended their losing streak against Purdue, but it nearly blew a double-figure second half lead against the Boilermakers. Iowa is also on the verge of losing a first round bye in the Big Ten Tournament as well as seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Most prognosticators have Fran McCaffery’s group sitting in the #6-#7 range (RTC’s Daniel Evans has them as a #7 seed), so a win likely helps them avoid a fall to the challenging #8-#9 seed line and a potential second-round match-up with a #1 seed. It also gives them the confidence of another marquee win, something they have lacked with only one win against a current Top 25 team. Michigan State needs the win too, as it is battling for a top four protected seed in the NCAA Tournament, but with its lineup only recently becoming healthy, regaining chemistry for tournament play is of paramount importance. Everyone knows what a full Spartans squad can do and seed placement won’t really deter that potential if they start firing on all cylinders.

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Walker Carey is an RTC Correspondent. He filed this report after Wednesday night’s game between Nebraska and Indiana in Bloomington.

Prior to Wednesday night’s game at Indiana, Nebraska was widely seen as a bubble NCAA Tournament team. The Cornhuskers were among the “First Four Out” in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest update, so Tim Miles’ squad knew it had basically zero margin for error in either of its two games this week (at Indiana on Wednesday and home versus Wisconsin on Sunday). Earning a win at Assembly Hall figured to be a tall task for the Cornhuskers, as Indiana had already scored home victories over Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State this season. Luckily for Nebraska, its chances at an earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament are still alive and well after the Cornhuskers led all the way en route to a very important 10-point road victory. The following are three thoughts from Wednesday night’s action.

Nebraska Got a Huge Win at Indiana Wednesday Night

1. Nebraska Received Valuable Contributions From a Variety of Players. On an evening where Nebraska standout guard Terran Petteway battled foul trouble and only finished 3-of-10 from the field, the Cornhuskers received impact performances from several other players. Forward Walter Pitchford scored the team’s first nine points of the night and finished the game with 17 total points to go with the nine rebounds he collected. Swingman Shavon Shields experienced plenty of success attacking the rim against the Indiana defense and also finished the game with 17 points. Shields was also part of the defensive effort that held Indiana’s marquee players — Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey — to combined 9-of-28 shooting from the field. The Cornhuskers also received key performances from reserve guards Benny Parker and Ray Gallegos, who sparked the Cornhuskers on both ends of the court with intense and spirited play. Good teams are able to adjust on the fly and still earn victories when their top player is not at his best, and that is exactly what Nebraska did on Wednesday night. Read the rest of this entry »