One of the interesting things about a long and grueling conference season is the subtle changes that teams undergo, both good and bad. For a Xavier team that remains in solid position for a top-two Big East finish and a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament, an issue may be developing. Despite a 9-2 record since losing at Villanova, Xavier has been trending down in efficiency metrics (with both KenPom and others). Defense is the main culprit, specifically on the interior. Wins against St. John’s and Marquette were much closer than they should have been and Chris Mack’s team followed those up with a disappointing loss at Creighton, a game in which it was blitzed from the opening tip. The Musketeers have allowed six of its last seven opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from two-point range. What’s shocking is this had only happened six times in the preceding 23 games. While the better competition in Big East play is certainly a factor, the trend is undoubtedly still alarming. It’s no coincidence that the three teams to beat Xavier have all shot better than 60 percent from inside the arc. Given the makeup of this Musketeers team, the porous interior defending is especially surprising.

Jalen Reynolds and Xavier are struggling a bit defensively. (AP)

Xavier not only has one of the better frontcourts in the nation, but it also has a stockpile of guards and wings with length and athleticism. Mack’s 1-3-1 zone has been incredibly disruptive at times this season, particularly in limiting penetration by the opponent. Given all this, it’s hard to decipher the exact problem for the X-men, but they would be wise to find a way to stop this trend. It will be notable if the poor defending continues down the stretch, as this team is faced with a brutal late February schedule. The Musketeers have been a complete team on both ends of the floor for most of this season and have a legitimate chance to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. It would be a shame if porous interior defense derails this dream season. Read the rest of this entry »

The end of football season coincides with the fast-approaching NCAA Tournament. For some, such as Villanova and Xavier, the body of work to date has been impressive enough to already guarantee entry to the Tournament, and likely as a high seed. For others, such as Butler and Seton Hall, it’s imperative to continue winning. The Tournament is just five weeks away and many non-contenders are beginning to play for their postseason lives. The picture is constantly shifting as bubble teams trade wins and losses, pulling each other down as they seek to climb the Big East ladder. This is the first installment of the Big East bubble watch, with RPI and SOS figures from RealTimeRPI.com.

Isaiah Whitehead And Seton Hall Have The NCAA Tournament Firmly In Their Sights (Photo: USA Today Sports)

Locks

Villanova: 20-3 (10-1); RPI: 3; SOS: 6

Xavier: 21-2 (9-2); RPI: 8; SOS: 61

Analysis: No justification needed here. Both teams are firmly in the RPI top 10 and could be looking at #1 or #2 seeds. At this point, even a prolonged losing streak wouldn’t be enough to keep them out.

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Over the course of three months, Kevin Willard has deftly collected the pieces from last season’s disaster and assembled a tournament-caliber team. It started with the transformation of Isaiah Whitehead into team leader, as the sophomore began to channel his talents in new ways – namely creating opportunities for his teammates. Then came the development of Desi Rodriguez‘s versatile playmaking abilities, giving Seton Hall a legitimate scorer on the wings. Finally, over the last two weeks, 6’9 forward Angel Delgado has broken out of a slump and re-emerged as the physical rebounding presence and interior scorer that many fans remembered from last season. But behind all of it, lurking in the shadows, is graduate transfer Derrick Gordon, a 6’3″ guard whose contributions far outpace what shows up in the box score.

Derrick Gordon Draws the Task of Slowing Down Opponents’ Leading Scorers (Photo: USA Today Sports)

The reasons for the lack of recognition for Gordon aren’t difficult to deduce. Being a newcomer has made Gordon a relatively unknown quantity, and given that his eligibility expires after this season, fewer observers have considered his overall impact. He also comes off the bench and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make an impact, making his efforts less obvious to the casual fan. What Gordon has provided are the intangibles that keep the often disorganized and young (five sophomores make up the starting lineup) Pirates together. Gordon is not only the team’s lone senior, but he’s also the only player on the roster who has been to the NCAA Tournament – once with Western Kentucky his freshman year and again with UMass as a sophomore. When the team was facing disciplinary issues, it was Gordon who called a players-only meeting to sift through and sort out the concerns. “Me being a veteran, I’ve got to make sure we stay together and don’t put our heads down,” Gordon said. “I wasn’t here last year, but I’ve heard what happened last year. I’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen again.”

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Back around Christmas, we talked about how drastically Butler’s offense had transformed this season, in large part due to faster pace and an improved individual efficiency for some key players. This offense was predicated on a balanced attack that featured reliable shooters and a handful of players who could score in the paint. As his team headed into Big East play, it appeared that Butler head coach Chris Holtmann had everything figured out. His Bulldogs had collected wins over Cincinnati and Purdue and were a weekly member of the Top 25. The offense that was propelling the Bulldogs was ranked among the nation’s top five in terms of points per game and averaging a whopping 123 points per 100 possessions. The most impressive part wasn’t the above-average rebounding rates for an undersized team or Butler’s remarkable ability to take care of the ball; what separated this year’s Bulldogs from past editions was its ability to score inside. Through its non-conference slate, Butler was shooting over 57 percent from two-point range, its best mark in 15 years. Curiously though, all of it – truly, all of it – has come undone in the last few weeks.

Andrew Chrabascz’s shooting woes have plagued Butler in Big East play. (USA Today Sports)

Many are pointing fingers at Butler’s stark lack of depth across essentially every position on the roster, and while it’s true that the bench lacks the ability to consistently contribute, the starting lineup still provides plenty of firepower. Senior Kellen Dunham has been remarkably consistent this season, shedding the up-and-down shooting woes of his former self. Roosevelt Jones has shown no signs of slowing down when it comes to attacking the rim. Budding sophomore Kelan Martin has established himself as a do-it-all scorer and one of the team’s most efficient shooters. None of these three have suffered any slowdown in conference play and none are the reason why Butler has been unable to win close league games. Instead, the tragic downturn has coincided with both an injury to point guard Tyler Lewis, and more importantly, the disappearance of 6’7″ post man Andrew Chrabascz, a player who has struggled mightily with his shooting touch. The Bulldogs do not need 20 points per game out of Chrabascz, but any reasonable consistency from him will open up the floor. When he shoots the ball well, defenders are forced to respect his outside shooting as he rolls off screens, a nice addition to the help defense he normally draws in the low post. Butler excels when it uses Chrabascz to set ball screens to free Dunham or Jones and set up a two-on-one situation with Chrabascz either rolling to the rim or floating out for an open jump shot. His shooting ability forces post players to leave the paint in order to contest his shots, which is part of the reason Jones and Martin have had so many lanes on their drives to the basket.

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Marquette may have already matched last season’s win total, but conference success has been hard to come by. A once-dominant, perennial contender in the Big East has fallen by the wayside following the departure of Buzz Williams. And while expectations have been tempered for first-time head coach Steve Wojciechowski, the frustration is already evident. On its face, the Golden Eagles’ frontcourt pairing of Indiana transfer Luke Fischer – an experienced junior with a plethora of post moves – and highly touted freshman Henry Ellenson forms the core of the best offensive frontcourt in the conference. Unsurprisingly, the team is sporting both its best two-point field goal percentage offense and defense of the last 15 years. Marquette has thrived when working through the post, a reality made even more evident when the Golden Eagles shot 54.8 percent inside the arc against Villanova, a team that usually holds opponents to 41.9 percent two-point shooting (16th nationally).

Yet for a team that plays so well in the paint (Fischer and Ellenson shoot a combined 70% at the rim), the team’s offense has been undermined by an odd plan of attack. Entry passes or pick-and-roll plays that have commonly resulted in easy Golden Eagles points are scarcely used; instead, Wojciechowski’s team is playing at an unsustainably quick pace, averaging just 15.7 seconds per possession on offense. The team’s average offensive possession length has decreased from 18.6 seconds (198th nationally) to 15.7 (34th nationally) over the course of one season. This figure is undoubtedly distorted by a high turnover rate and low rebounding rate, but those two issues also plagued last year’s team, and to a similar extent. Perhaps as a result of the relative inexperience of its backcourt players, the quickened pace has Marquette turning the ball over on 20.5 percent of all its possessions, which puts them 296th nationally in the category.

Marquette’s Henry Ellenson Plays a Perimeter-Oriented Game (USA Today Images)

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There has been no shortage of discussion around the success of Xavier so far this season. Even after a loss to Georgetown on Tuesday night, the Musketeers are a top five team with a 16-2 record and five wins over the RPI top 50. It’s put Xavier on track to potentially post the best season in program history. Xavier has earned a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament twice in its history (2003 and 2008), but has never advanced to the Final Four. Now, in building upon a dark horse Sweet Sixteen run last season, Chris Mack’s team is pounding on the ceiling. Some bracketology predictions show Mack’s team on the one seed line, and talk of legitimate Final Four potential is ramping up. A balanced offense (six players score 9 PPG or more) has combined with a stifling zone defense to pave the way to the team’s hot start. So too has the intimidating inside punch of Jalen Reynolds and James Farr, whose combined 15.6 RPG is a major reason why Xavier is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. But the true impact player for the X-men has been redshirt freshman Edmond Sumner, a wiry 6’6 point guard who drastically alters the rhythm of the game on both ends of the floor.

His assist figures may not directly reflect it, but Sumner has deftly assumed point guard duties left behind by departed senior Dee Davis, who had been a critical facilitator on last year’s team. One of the big offseason questions for Chris Mack was whether any player could fill his shoes. Sumner has done that, and more. He is averaging 5.4 assists per 40 minutes, while his scoring ability has drawn enough respect from defenders that they are forced to slide into help position and surrender an open man. His long frame and quick feet enable him to easily evade defenders in both the halfcourt and transition, frequently putting him in a position to score or make an easy pass. Here, are two perfect examples of the aforementioned optionality that Sumner provides his team.

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With 17 seconds remaining in Villanova’s 55-50 victory over Georgetown on Saturday, the Wildcats’ Josh Hart delivered the proverbial dagger. In basketball parlance, daggers are typically big shots that put games out of reach, but on Saturday, Hart’s dagger came in the form of a timeout. Sprawled on the floor as Villanova held a a 51-46 lead, Hart signaled to the baseline official for the timeout as Hoyas began to pile on top of him. Moments earlier, the Villanova swingman had skied high for a rebound, his 12th of the game, off a Reggie Cameron missed three-pointer that would have closed the deficit to two. “You can’t teach the guts to just lay your body out and go get the ball like that,” Villanova head coach Jay Wright told the media after the win. “You see that and you just say, ‘Thank God he’s on our team.'”

Josh Hart is becoming more than just Villanova’s sixth man. (Associated Press)

Hart, a 6’5″ junior, is the leading scorer and second-leading rebounder on KenPom’s #1 ranked team, but you won’t find his name on many mid-season All-American lists. The omission is a bit perplexing given that Hart wasn’t exactly an unknown heading into the year. He was the Big East’s Sixth Man of the Year a season ago, a year in which he also became the first non-starter to win the Big East Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award. Now, Hart is averaging 15.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game for the surging Wildcats. His 15-point, 12-rebound performance against Georgetown is just the latest in a long line of impressive outings this season.

The transition from sixth man to starter hasn’t necessarily been a smooth one, however. “It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster,” Hart said of the switch. According to him, the biggest adjustment has been making sure that he starts the game well. “Last year, I could watch everything going on and then get into it. Now, I have to jump start the team,” he said after Saturday’s victory. While Hart finished with 12 rebounds against Georgetown, just one of those came in the first half. Luckily for the Wildcats, slow starts don’t seem to bother Hart. At halftime, he said he told himself that “If I’m not going to score, I’m going to rebound, I’m going to help this team.”

That team-first mentality is also a reflection of Hart’s evolution as a leader. The upperclassman has a healthy respect for the Wildcats who have come before him. “I’m a junior now. Now, I don’t have the James Bells, the Darrun Hilliards, the [JayVaughn Pinkstons], the Tony Chennaults,” Hart said in reference to seniors who have graduated during his tenure. “I don’t have those guys to kind of lean on, now I’m going into that leadership role.”

As Hart becomes more comfortable with his role as a starter and leader, he’s also been working hard to improve himself as an individual player. He works with associate head coach Baker Dunleavy “every day” on various aspects of his game. There has been obvious growth in a number of areas of Hart’s skill set since he arrived at Villanova from Sidwell Friends School three years ago, but the talent that he’s improved most is his jump shot. “I think everyone saw my shot freshman year. It was probably one of the ugliest things—had a crazy hitch. It was just atrocious,” he said after Saturday’s win as teammate Ryan Arcidiacono flashed a big smile. Since shooting 31.3 percent from three-point range his freshman season, Hart is an impressive 79-for-190 from deep (41.6%).

Hart opened Saturday’s contest with a steal and dunk. (USA Today Sports)

This rollercoaster ride isn’t an accident. Villanova has created an environment for Hart to grow from role player to sixth man to star. He frequently credits his coaches and his teammates with helping him grow the confidence necessary for the improvement. According to Hart, the next step in his personal development is to improve his decision-making when he gets into the lane. “You just have to get the work in,” he said.

While timeouts are rarely remembered as game-changing, Hart’s rebound and call for time against Georgetown was the critical moment of the Wildcat win. It also provided a solid reflection of the ethos of both team and star — Hart and the group he leads have proven quite committed to doing everything possible to help the Wildcats win. Those type of players typically find their way onto “glue guy” lists, but Josh Hart is much more than that. Don’t be surprised if the name of Villanova’s newest leader shows up on All-American lists at the end of the season.

Early conference results can sometimes be deceiving. While the Big East is one of only two major conferences with a true round-robin format, the start to conference play for Butler and Georgetown has been quite different. These teams currently sit at 1-3 and 4-1, respectively, even though the Bulldogs are widely regarded to be the better team. While Georgetown was handed a soft opening stretch to conference play, one that included two games with DePaul, one with St. John’s and a home tilt against Marquette, Butler has had to play the likes of Xavier, Providence and Villanova right off the bat. Everything will even out eventually, but sometimes a tough start to league play can take away momentum created in the non-conference, something Butler (11-1 non-conference record) did quite well. But should there be concern now that the Bulldogs are heading in the wrong direction? Absolutely. Chris Holtmann’s team ranks a dismal No. 157 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the season and dead last in the 10-team Big East when considering conference games only. Butler has struggled all season with adjusting to life without Kameron Woods, who was a dominant rebounder last season. The Bulldogs are undersized in the frontcourt and need to figure out a way to rebound and defend if they are going to bounce back from a rough start to league play.

Chris Holtmann and Butler were dealt no favors by the Big East schedule makers. (AP)

We will find out a lot more about Georgetown in the coming weeks. The Hoyas now begin a stretch of six straight games against KenPom top 50 teams after their soft open to the Big East schedule. Turnovers, rebounding and perimeter defense remain issues for this team, and the loss of Paul White for the rest of this season hurts its depth. Georgetown showed glimpses of strong play in the non-conference, but when you remember the good with the bad — head-scratching losses to some legitimately bad teams — it is difficult to make a confident judgement on the team. One thing that is a safe bet: The Hoyas will go as far as D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera can take them.

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Isaiah Whitehead has undergone a radical transformation over the last three weeks. The 6’4″ Brooklyn native arrived at Seton Hall as a shooting guard stuck in a point guard’s body, and it showed his freshman year. His talent was undeniable, but the fit felt unnatural alongside Sterling Gibbs and Jaren Sina, both of whom preferred to have the ball in their hands. As a result, last season’s guard-laden backcourt eventually collapsed amid locker room disputes and a struggle for roles. When all was said and done, Gibbs and Sina departed, leaving the team in the hands of the rising sophomore Whitehead.

The emergence of a special Isaiah Whitehead has Seton Hall right in the mix. (Jim O’Connor/USA TODAY Sports)

The start to the newly-minted Whitehead era was a rocky one, as an early loss to Long Beach State was sandwiched between narrow victories over Wagner and Bradley. Now, just weeks later, the team has collected wins over Georgia, Wichita State and Marquette. Don’t look now, but the Pirates appear to be playing their way into the NCAA tournament. The development of the team’s sophomores is a big reason for the improved outlook, but the biggest transformation of all belongs to Whitehead, who has found the right balance within the scorer/distributor framework of a point guard. “After Rutgers he started playing at a good level. He’s letting the game come to him, he’s getting good shots. He knows when to be aggressive and when to pass the ball more now,” coach Kevin Willard said following his team’s win over DePaul. Make no mistake, too: This shift has not been gradual. It has been sudden and dramatic. Whitehead’s assist figures have exploded, and so too has the effectiveness of the team’s offense. Read the rest of this entry »

Under former coaches Tom Crean and Buzz Williams, Marquette made the NCAA Tournament in eight straight seasons from 2006-13. Despite all of that success, a tumultuous period in program history began just one season removed from a 2013 trip to the Elite Eight. It begin with a sour relationship between Williams and former athletic director Larry Williams (no relation). The latter Williams resigned in December 2013 amid a cloud of uncertainty. The former Williams, for his part, surprisingly left the program for Virginia Tech at the end of the 2013-14 season. In retrospect, the decision was calculated. Williams decided that Marquette, a school with no football program and mired in the thick of a shaky Big East realignment, was not well-poised for future success. The Golden Eagles’ 17-15 record that season certainly wasn’t reassuring.

Steve Wojchiechowski is in the midst of a rebuild at Marquette. (Mark Hoffman/The Journal Sentinel)

Steve Wojciechowski, the associate head coach at Duke at the time, saw Marquette differently than Williams. He saw a school where, similar to his alma mater in Durham, the men’s basketball program is an integral part of the university. He also recognized that the program has a proud and passionate fan base that will not accept mediocrity. In his first season, Marquette finished 13-19 and once again missed the NCAA Tournament, but a top-10 recruiting class that included highly-touted freshman Henry Ellenson brought a rejuvenated sense of hope. Those expectations were tempered very quickly at the start of the season. In the span of a single November week, the Golden Eagles lost their home opener to Belmont, needed overtime to get past IUPUI, and was walloped by Iowa. They bounced back with neutral court victories over LSU and Arizona State in Brooklyn en route to a 10-2 record that also included a surprising victory over Wisconsin in Madison. The beginning of Big East play, however, brought forth some new adversity. After a disappointing home loss by 20 points to Seton Hall, Marquette hit 0-2 in league play after an 80-70 loss to Georgetown on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »