Big East M5: 10.30.13 Edition

Posted by George Hershey on October 30th, 2013

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  1. Renowned college basketball stats guru Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings for the upcoming season. The Big East comes in as the second best conference in the nation, behind the Big Ten. This is surprising after Louisville, Syracuse, and several other quality teams left, as well as seeing ESPN writer Dan Hanner have the Big East in the middle of the pack of the power seven conferences. Pomeroy has Creighton leading the league, ranked 13th, with Georgetown right behind them at 14. Marquette and Villanova follow at 24 and 26. Pomeroy’s rankings look fairly different than Hanner’s, which has Marquette as the top team in the league and ranks the bottom seven teams lower giving the Big East a much lower rating. Pomeroy admits that his predictions have the “simplest algorithm possible without being a complete joke.” This is not the best way to predict how well a team will play during the season, but it is fun to see what a respected statistician says about the upcoming season. The high ranking for the Big East should give fans optimism and reason to believe the Big East will compete to be one of the top conferences in the nation.
  2. CBS Sports writer Jeff Borzello wrote an interesting piece about the team outside his top 25 that he thinks has the most potential and St. John’s was his clear cut choice. With so much talent, it is easy to see why. The Red Storm return all five starters as well as Jamal Branch and God’s Gift Achiuwa, who will have major roles. He points out that the biggest addition is freshman Rysheed Jordan. Steve Lavin said “He has tremendous poise and makes good judgments on the court. He plays with a hard edge, which is an indication of his competitiveness and that’s why he has had success since a young age on the court.” Jordan was named Big East Preseason Rookie of the Year and his addition raises the potential even higher. Last year’s team also had talent, but a lot of inexperience. This year players like D’Angelo Harrison and JaKarr Sampson will have to take a big step forward in becoming more complete and smarter basketball players. Lavin will also have to impress this year after having a reputation for being a great recruiter, but not being able to win with top talent. All the pieces are in place for this to be a big season in Queens.
  3. Last night, Butler scrimmaged against Nova Southeastern and won handily 101-64. Obviously it was an easy game for them, but it is still nice to see it wasn’t close, as opposed to DePaul‘s scrimmage against Lewis University, which saw the Blue Demons trail at halftime before using an early run in the second half to win by five. Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star took a look at Butler freshman Rene Castro. Castro is a point guard who looks like he could end up being a key contributor this season and possible starter by the end of the season, as Keefer predicts. Castro has a good bit of improving to do especially on the defensive side of the ball and needs to adjust to the college game, but he has impressed and is working hard on his outside shot. First-year coach Brandon Miller could use Castro’s physical abilities to bring another aspect to the team. If Castro is the real deal, he could make sophomore Kellen Dunham’s life much easier by using his quickness to get into the lane and kick it out to him for three’s. Castro has big goals, saying “Our goal is to make the NCAA Tournament and fight for a championship.”
  4. The Big East is benefiting from the thrilling World Series on Fox, as Kevin McNamara of the Providence Journal points out. Fox is airing several commercials publicizing the upcoming season on Fox Sports 1 and is reaching millions as game 4 on Sunday night outdrew the NFL. The commercials are pushing it’s opening night games of Providence-Boston College and Lafayette-Villanova. Fox Sports also announced its lineup of announcers for the upcoming season. Besides the already announced star combo of Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery, Justin Kutcher, Dick Stockton, Thom Brennaman, Brian Anderson, Eric Collins and Kevin Kugler will have play-by-play duties and Kevin O’Neill, Gary Williams, Donny Marshall as well as several other former players and coaches will serve as analysts. FS1 has some big names announcing games with Stockton and Brennaman being well-known announcers who have plenty of experience. O’Neill and Williams should be interesting to have in the booth as they will be making their debuts, but have had great success coaching and will have interesting analysis.
  5. The Big East announced that it has hired Tom Jernstedt as senior adviser. He will be tasked with helping commissioner Val Ackerman on officiating, scheduling, postseason play and an entire strategic plan. Jernstedt worked for the NCAA for almost 40 years and Ackerman says that “few have as keen a grasp as he does of the intricacies of the NCAA and the college basketball world.” ESPN’s Dana O’Neill makes the point that the hiring is very important as it gives the Big East credibility from the start. His past experience will be key in getting the Big East through the tough early stages of establishing itself as a power conference. Their is a lot of work to be done and Ackerman will benefit from having someone who knows the ins and outs of the NCAA and the college basketball world.
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Breaking Down Dan Hanner’s Big East Projections

Posted by George Hershey on October 28th, 2013

Economist and college hoops writer Dan Hanner posted  his annual projections for ESPN Insider on Friday. It is a very interesting article and a recommended read for any college basketball stats junkie. He puts a unique spin on his projections by starting at the player level instead of the team level. The advantage, as he puts it, “is that not all additions have the same impact everywhere. For example, transfer Trae Golden is expected to have a huge impact on Georgia Tech because the Yellow Jackets had a big hole at PG. But if he had been added to a team like Duke, with multiple quality ball-handlers, his impact would have been much smaller. The player-level model can account for these kind of differences.” His rankings take into account player upside as well as downside and he gives a best-case and worst-case position for each team.

Grant Gibbs and Creighton need to shore up their defense to reach their full potential this season.

Grant Gibbs and Creighton need to shore up their defense to reach their full potential this season.

The Big East is well-considered by Hanner. The league’s 10-team average is 53.9, slightly behind the Big Ten at 49.2 and well ahead of the AAC at 79.9. Last year’s Big East would have scored considerably higher with Louisville in the second spot as well as Syracuse and Connecticut in the top 25. This year, the Big East does not have as many teams at the top with Marquette leading the way at #17, but there is great balance with DePaul the only team lower than #100. It does not look like any teams will be battling for #1 seeds this season, but there could be seven or eight squads fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament come February and March.

The following are the 10 Big East teams in descending order:

  • POFF – Projected offense, median prediction for points scored per 100 possessions
  • PDEF – Projected defense, median prediction for points allowed per 100 possessions

1. Marquette Golden Eagles

17. POFF: 116.1 | PDEF: 92.5 Best case: 7th | Worst case: 29th

Hanner ranks the Golden Eagles in the same spot as the USA Today poll. Buzz Williams’ squad is ranked highly in both offense and defense, but neither is extraordinarily high. For Marquette to reach its best case scenario, they would need their three new starting guards to come close to last year’s production from the trio of Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue and Trent Lockett, a very difficult task. The frontcourt returns everyone, but Jamil Wilson and Davante Gardner will have to become the go-to scorers and also rebound well while Chris Otule locks down the paint defensively. With Williams’ track record, it seems unlikely that his team would drop out of the top 25 unless the guards are unable to step up and contribute at a high level.

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Big East M5: 10.28.13 Edition

Posted by George Hershey on October 28th, 2013

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  1. Fox Sports 1 kicked off its coverage of the Big East with its Tip-Off Party on Friday night. Rob Stone, Bill Raftery and Tarik Turner led viewers around the Big East as most teams have now had their season opening events/scrimmages. The Fox hosts talked with several of the league coaches as well as preseason POY Doug McDermott. Fox has invested a lot of money in the new league and is already pushing its games with plenty of commercials and a new show for Bill Raftery, whom they lured away from ESPN. Bringing in a big name like Raftery and placing him alongside everyone’s favorite play-by-play announcer, Gus Johnson, will help draw some casual viewers. The Big East/Fox Sports 1 relationship will be a crucial one for both sides this season as both entities are new ventures and will need to have some early success to gain credibility.
  2. St. John’s center Chris Obekpa was recently suspended for the the Red Storm’s tip-off event and their two preseason scrimmages for violating university rules. Luckily for Obekpa and Steve Lavin, he will be able to practice and will be available for the team’s crucial season opener against Wisconsin on November 8. Obekpa had the second most blocks in the nation last year and is a huge presence down low. He is an irreplaceable player for the Red Storm so it is paramount that he does not have any more rules violations that could keep him out of the lineup. Lavin said, “We expect our student-athletes to conduct themselves in a responsible manner in representing St. John’s University. Chris understands this suspension can serve as a learning experience.” Hopefully he does not suffer too much from missing the exhibition games and will be 100 percent ready for the Badgers in a little more than a week.
  3. Villanova and Marquette both had their preseason intra-squad scrimmages this weekend. Villanova split into the Blue team, led by Ryan Arcidiacono, and White team, led by JayVaughn Pinkston. The Blue team won by 15 points and was in control from the start. VUHoops.com was impressed by Arcidiacono, who is looking to build off a very successful freshman campaign, as well as freshman Josh Hart, who was a menace defensively. In Milwaukee, Buzz Williams decided to have a “pseudo practice”, as Andrei Greska of PaintTouches.com put it. Freshman point guard John Dawson was impressive for a guy who was looked at as a project by most, but with the loss of Duane Wilson for a few months, he will be called upon to play a few minutes each night. The other two freshman, JaJuan Johnson and Deonte Burton, were impressive and had some nice plays on offense. The most impressive player of all, though, according to Greska, was Juan Anderson. The junior wing seems to be putting it all together after a summer where he decided to leave and then return to the program.
  4. Georgetown reeled in four-star 6’8″ power forward Marcus Derrickson over the weekend. He is ranked 55th in the class of 2015 by Rivals and is the Hoyas’ first verbal commitment in the class. This weekend was huge for recruiting for several teams that held their preseason tip-offs. Seton Hall had their excellent 2014 commitments Khadeen Carrington, Isaiah Whitehead, Angel Delgado, and Ismael Sanogo in attendance as well as several local targets in the classes of 2015 and 2016. Kevin Willard is turning it around big time with the 2014 class and having all the recruits on campus will hopefully bring in some additional top talent. St. John’s also had some big recruits on campus with Isaiah Briscoe and Cheick Diallo in Carnesecca Arena. Both would be huge gets for Steve Lavin who has had great success recruiting at St. John’s.
  5. Several of the tip-off parties had some special appearances and performances on Friday night. Providence brought in singer Nick Cannon to DJ the event and Villanova had Nicki Minaj perform.  There were also some superb dunk contests. St. John’s freshman Rysheed Jordan won theirs with an amazing dunk over former Red Storm center God’s Gift Achiuwa. Another freshman, Providence’s Brandon Austin, had an incredible between-the-legs dunk to win theirs. Probably the most bizarre event from Friday around the league was at Seton Hall. Pirates coach Kevin Willard challenged competitive eater Takeru Kobayashi to a hot-dog eating contest. Willard decided to drink wine and put some mustard on his hot dog as the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest champion devoured 10 hot dogs in a minute and then chugged a gallon of milk.
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A Marquette Transfer and Injury Has Short and Long-Term Impacts

Posted by George Hershey on October 25th, 2013

In the past week, Marquette fans have received quite a bit of bad news via social media. Last Thursday, incoming junior college transfer Jameel McKay went to Twitter to announce his departure from the school before even playing a game. The next day, freshman point guard Duane Wilson sent out a picture of himself on crutches on his Instagram account. It was not announced officially until Monday when the Marquette men’s basketball Twitter account noted that he would miss the start of the season with a stress fracture in his left leg.

Buzz Williams has his work cut out for him. (US Presswire)

Buzz Williams has his work cut out for him. (US Presswire)

McKay was supposed to be next in a growing line of successful junior college recruits for Buzz Williams. Since coming to Marquette, Williams has had five junior college players and four of them have gone on to the NBA, most recently the pair of Dwight Buycks and Jae Crowder. McKay came to the program after starring in the Milwaukee public school league and then went on to Indian Hills Community College, where he was a two-time All-American. He is an athletic forward with great energy and rebounding skills. Popular Marquette basketball website PaintTouches.com recently spoke with McKay about his departure, where he revealed that he was unhappy with his role on the team and is looking for a better situation. A fellow Milwaukee native, Wilson is a high scoring point guard who can get to the rim at will and shoot a high percentage. Marquette fans were pulling for him to win the starting job out of the gate over junior Derrick Wilson. With Duane looking like he will be out eight to 12 weeks, there is little hope that he will crack the starting lineup this season.

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CBS Sports’ Top 100 Players: Big East Breakdown

Posted by George Hershey on October 21st, 2013

Jeff Borzello, Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish published a list of their top 100 college basketball players in America this past week. The Big East has six players on the list, led by Doug McDermott at #3. The other players picked, respectively, are Xavier guard Semaj Christon (#19), Providence guard Bryce Cotton (#66), Georgetown point guard Markel Starks (#75), St. John’s forward JaKarr Sampson (#85), and Marquette forward Davante Gardner (#96). McDermott comes in behind two of the top candidates for next year’s #1 draft pick in Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins and Oklahoma State sophomore Marcus Smart. McDermott has been named a first team All-American the past two seasons, and is the most decorated individual in college basketball.

Georgetown's Markel Starks is one of six players that made the CBS Top 100. (Getty)

Georgetown’s Markel Starks is one of six players that made the CBS Top 100. (Getty)

With six players, the new Big East has the least of any of the power conferences. These rankings do not necessarily show each conference’s overall talent and quality of players, but it gives fans a sense of a league’s star power and professional prospects. Having said that, the Big East has lost considerable star power through conference realignment. Last year’s Big East teams would have totaled 16 players on the list this year. Louisville, Syracuse, and Notre Dame each contributes multiple players while new members Butler, Creighton, and Xavier only add McDermott and Christon. The ACC has 15 players on the list, leading all conferences, with several teams having multiple selections. Closely behind that league is the SEC with 14 players and the Big Ten with 13 selections. The SEC is powered by Kentucky, with an astounding seven picks, while Michigan and Michigan State account for more than half of the Big Ten’s spots — seven between the two teams. The Pac-12 has excellent balance with 11 players on seven different teams. The other two power conferences, the Big 12 and AAC, each has 10 players. With only six choices, the Big East is considerably behind the other power conferences. The Mountain West also had six players chosen and the top mid-major leagues such as the Atlantic 10 and WCC, have four each. By this measure, the Big East is profiling more like a high-level mid-major this season than it is one of the seven power conferences.

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Doug McDermott Faces Big Expectations as Preseason Big East POY

Posted by George Hershey on October 17th, 2013

Wednesday morning at the Big East Media Day in New York City, the league announced that Creighton forward Doug McDermott had been selected as Preseason Player of the Year by the league’s 10 coaches. McDermott decided to return for his senior year with the Bluejays in large part due to Creighton’s arrival in the Big East. He told reporters that “If it was the Missouri Valley, I don’t know if I would’ve come back,” he said. “This is just a new challenge.”

McDermott's Return Makes Creighton a Contender (ALYSSA SCHUKAR/THE WORLD-HERALD)

McDermott’s Return Makes Creighton a Contender (ALYSSA SCHUKAR/THE WORLD-HERALD)

After averaging 23.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game last year, it will be interesting to see if McDermott can match or improve his production when facing stiffer competition. McDermott is an extraordinary talent and there is no reason to believe he will not have another special year. Nonetheless, playing in the Big East is going to be a more substantial challenge. The Big East is known for its bruising play, and McDermott will face larger, faster, and stronger defenders than he has in the past. Also, as the presumptive star of the league, teams will be sure to game plan and strategize to neutralize his offensive capabilities. In two NCAA Tournament games last season, for example, McDermott averaged 24 points per game, but he did it going a combined 11-of-31 against Cincinnati and Duke. Those are the types of bruising defenses he will be facing on a consistent basis during conference play this season. McDermott is without a doubt an NBA talent, but his ability to score against improved competition and focus will determine if he is the running for the National Player of the Year award.

The league also announced its all-conference teams:

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Big East Coaches Pick Marquette to Win League Race

Posted by George Hershey on October 16th, 2013

Today at the Big East Media day held in New York City, Marquette was picked by league coaches as the preseason favorite to win the conference. The Golden Eagles edged out Georgetown ever so slightly to gain the top spot. Georgetown (with two #1 votes) was followed by new member Creighton (one #1 vote), with Villanova, St. John’s (two #1 votes) and Providence coming in next. New member Xavier was picked seventh followed by Seton Hall, while Butler and DePaul rounded out the 10-team poll. The entire group is listed below.

Shout It Buzz; You're #1 in the Big East Preseason Poll (MJS/R. Wood)

Shout It Buzz; You’re #1 in the Big East Preseason Poll (MJS/R. Wood)

  1. Marquette (5) 74
  2. Georgetown (2) 70
  3. Creighton (1) 61
  4. Villanova 58
  5. St. John’s (2) 56
  6. Providence 41
  7. Xavier 38
  8. Seton Hall 20
  9. Butler 19
  10. DePaul 13

This is Marquette’s first time atop the preseason poll as a member of the league. With the losses of Syracuse, Louisville and Connecticut and others, it has opened the door for teams like Marquette and Georgetown to become the preseason favorites. Marquette in the past has prided itself on being the quiet underdog and surprising people after being picked to finish in the middle of the pack. But this year Buzz Williams will hope to finish the way his team did last year, with a Big East championship. The Golden Eagles return its frontcourt of Davante Gardner, Chris Otule and Jamil Wilson, but will have to replace the backcourt with the losses of Junior Cadougan, Trent Lockett and Vander Blue. Sophomore Derrick Wilson has been tasked with taking over as the starting point guard and stepping up as a team leader. Highly heralded recruits JaJuan Johnson, Duane Wilson and Deonte Burton will play substantial minutes early, and it will be paramount that they are able to contribute by conference season.

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