It’s almost time to get rolling, as actual games begin in three days. That means that it’s time for us here at the Big Ten microsite to unleash our preseason predictions and superlatives for the upcoming season. Keep an eye out in the next few days for our preseason all-league teams and some other preview material before the first games tip off on Friday. After careful deliberation among our group of writers, here’s how we see the standings shaking out, starting with our projected bottom half of the conference.

It could be another long season for Eddie Jordan and Rutgers in their second Big Ten season (USATSI).

• 14. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights started last season 10-7 before proceeding to lose their last 15 games. That team lost three of their top four scorers and only returns two starters. Corey Sanders is a nice building block for the future, but Eddie Jordan needs his freshman point guard and some of the sophomores to really improve quickly in order to move out of the basement.
• 13. Penn State: Pat Chambers is starting to get things going on the recruiting side of things, but losing DJ Newbill and Geno Thorpe means that his backcourt is going to be a question mark all season long. The Nittany Lions have the bodies with which to bang down low, but who scores for this team at the level of Newbill?

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It was supposed to happen with the group led by Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling two seasons ago — that was the team that was supposed to end Tom Izzo‘s four-year Final Four ‘drought.’ Instead, that Michigan State squad lost to Connecticut in the Elite Eight and it was his follow-up group — led by leftovers like Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice — that recovered from a shocking early home loss to Texas Southern to play in the season’s final weekend. Most of that team returns this season, and some high-impact newcomers are also on board. Shouldn’t Izzo’s Spartans be ranked higher to start the season? Isn’t another March run a distinct possibility?

Denzel Valentine will look to lead Michigan State to bigger and better things in his senior season (Getty).

Sparty begins the season ranked #13 in both major polls. It returns eight of its top 10 scorers from last season and adds West Virginia transfer Eron Harris (17.2 PPG in 2013-14) to the mix. The freshman class includes McDonald’s All-American Devonta Davis along with a couple more knockdown shooters in Kyle Ahrens and Matt McQuaid. Perimeter shooting definitely appears to be a major positive for this team. Multiple shooters could hit close to 40 percent from deep, as Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Harris have all reached that benchmark in recent seasons. Sharing the ball is another positive aspect of what should be an elite offense. Michigan State logged the seventh best team assist rate in the nation last year, assisting on 63.7 percent of its field goals. Valentine in particular has shown an ability to find the open man as a point forward, ranking eighth in the Big Ten in assist rate (26.9 percent) last year and cutting down his turnover rate by two percent despite much higher usage. Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn also notched an assist rate above 20 percent, and that number should increase if he gets added minutes with the departure of Trice. This could be an elite Spartans’ offense once the season gets rolling. Read the rest of this entry »

Along with Rutgers, Minnesota, Penn State and Nebraska finished among the bottom four of the league standings last season. Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, they appear to have more than one fix they need to make in order to climb out of the Big Ten basement. The other three cellar-dwellers, however, are in better shape, with each having a reasonable chance to move up the ladder if a few things break their way this season. Here are three things that, if enabled, would allow the Gophers, Nittany Lions and Cornhuskers to make their way into the middle of the pack.

Richard Pitino needs heavy contributions from his freshmen to exceed expectations. (Getty).

Freshmen Playing Above Expectations (Minnesota): Richard Pitino did not sign a single top 100 recruit this year, according to 247sports.com, as the Gophers brought in the 11th best recruiting class in the league. Yet, given the team’s heavy personnel losses, freshmen will by necessity play a crucial role in the success of this year’s team. None started in the Gophers’ recent scrimmage against Minnesota-Crookston but the newcomers scored 31 of their team’s 74 points in an easy win. Jordan Murphy led the way with 19 points and nine boards on 7-of-11 shooting from the field, while fellow newcomers Dupree McBrayer, Kevin Dorsey and Ahmad Gilbert all contributed while playing at least 14 minutes each. Some recruits play above their rankings and some classes pan out better than expected. If Pitino’s incoming class can play better than its ranking and develop a couple solid Big Ten players as soon as this year, the Gophers are poised to finish in the middle of the pack. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s legendary throughout the North Side of Chicago for its pure length of futility. It’s one of the longest streaks in sports, and dogged followers have hoped for decades that the drought would soon be over. Now, here in 2015, it appears that better days are finally coming. For the fans that have stuck around, the imminent snap of the curse will only be sweeter for their having endured decades of losing. And while the Chicago Cubs may soon end their 107-year World Series championship drought, we are not talking about the boys from Wrigley Field here. Rather, Northwestern hoops and its string of 77 seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance (the Wildcats are the only original Division I school in a power conference that has never made the field) could very well come to an end this season. They’ve been close before and there are some extremely positive signs appearing in Evanston as we approach tipoff. Here are three reasons why Northwestern — yes, those Wildcats — could indeed go dancing this March.

Tre Demps will be a key leader for Northwestern (Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports)

• Experienced Leadership: Two seniors who have been in Evanston through thick and thin over the last three seasons have steadily improved throughout their careers. Alex Olah and Tre Demps were both honorable mention all-B1G selections last season and are without question two of the league’s top returnees. Olah in particular has made leaps and bounds since his freshman season, improving his scoring from 6.1 PPG as a freshman to 11.7 PPG as a junior. His offensive rating went from 88.8 to 106.2 in the same period despite the fact that he is also using more possessions (21.8 to 24.1 percent). Notwithstanding the math, the eye test confirms that Olah has come a long way and it’s tough to find any player in the Big Ten who has improved as much over the same timeframe as he has. Demps has also become a more complete player, having evolved from a modest scoring option off the bench into a high-usage, heavy minutes offensive leader. He’s increased his assists every season and has also seen a spike in both his scoring (from 7.6 PPG as a freshman to 12.5 PPG last season), and offensive rating (94.3 to 102.6). Quality backups for Olah and Demps are also in place this season, with Virginia Tech transfer Joey van Zegeren prepared to spell the former and freshman combo guard Jordan Ash ready to supply good minutes for the latter. In general, Chris Collins has more talented depth at his disposal than he’s ever had in Evanston. Read the rest of this entry »

College basketball fans can breathe a little easier today. Certain milestones come along during October and November that make the season seem that much closer. Midnight Madness, conference media days and the release of your go-to preseason magazine all show incremental progress toward that first tip-off. On Monday afternoon, the second of the two major college basketball preseason polls was finally released, meaning that we really aren’t very far away now — just 11 days, in fact. A total of six Big Ten teams were on the AP voters’ initial ballots — Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan — so here are a few quick takeaways from today’s release.

Denzel Valentine is a big reason why Michigan State is one of six teams ranked in the preseason AP top 25(Getty).

• Best Conference Debate: Many pundits feel that the ACC and Big Ten will be battling all season for the crown as best conference this season. Score round one for the B1G, as the league put two more teams inside the Top 25 (six) than the ACC (four). The Big 12 also has four teams listed in the AP poll, while the SEC and the Pac-12 each have three. Give credit to the ACC, however, for listing three teams (UNC, Duke, Virginia) among the top six. The ACC also has four more teams listed within the next 10 of the “Others Receiving Votes” category, while the Big Ten only has one (Iowa). We’ll have to wait for the ACC/Big Ten Challenge in early December and the rest of the non-conference portion of the schedule to see how this particular competition between leagues plays out.
• Purdue and Michigan Get Extra Love:  Maryland (#3), Michigan State (#13), Indiana (#15), and Wisconsin (#17) all start in the exact same spot in both polls, whereas Purdue and Michigan both ended up with a slightly better position in the AP poll. The Boilermakers were tied for 24th in the Coaches’ Poll but will tip off at 23rd in the AP. Michigan just barely finished outside the Coaches’ Top 25 by two points, but they cracked the AP by taking the place of West Virginia in these rankings.
• Plenty of Chances Against the Top 25: There will be at least 16 games where Big Ten teams will have a chance to knock off a Top 25 team, as of the current rankings within this poll. Many of these games were already highlighted in our previous posts. In addition to these match-ups, there are also 10 possible games in tournaments, where if the bracket plays out a certain way, more resume-enhancers will be available for the league.

After a run to the National Championship game in 2012-13 and an Elite Eight appearance a year later, Michigan slumped to a 16-16 record a season ago. Injuries were the biggest obstacle to another postseason jaunt last year, but in a roundabout way they may have helped set the Maize and Blue up for success this year. Aubrey Dawkins averaged 11.4 PPG and shot 46 percent from behind the arc in his last 14 games; Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman averaged 7.9 PPG in his last 14 contests; and leading the way, Zak Irvin scored 14.7 PPG, grabbed 5.6 RPG and dished 2.4 APG. With Derrick Walton Jr. and Caris LeVert both sidelined by injuries, Irvin stepped up and performed as the primary option for the first time in his collegiate career. His emergence along with that of the freshmen didn’t lead to much success a year ago, but it does set things up nicely for John Beilein‘s team this season. Michigan’s perimeter attack is one the most talented and deepest in the B1G; is it good enough for the Wolverines to contend for the league title and return to the NCAA Tournament?

Aubrey Dawkins emerged as a diamond in the rough for Michigan last season (Photo: Rick Osentoski, USA Today).

When a Beilein-coached team (including stops at both Michigan and West Virginia) has finished the season with an adjusted offensive efficiency at 113.9 or greater, it has averaged 26.4 wins per season. It has happened five times now, with accompanying postseason results including a trip to the National Championship game, two Elite Eight appearances, a Sweet Sixteen appearance, and an NIT championship. KenPom projects the Michigan offense as the ninth-best outfit in the country this preseason. Last season, Indiana boasted the ninth-best offense in the country with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.7.  With Michigan’s injured set to return and their former backups now bolstered by the confidence and experience of playing featured roles last season, the pieces are in place for another Beilein offensive juggernaut. Read the rest of this entry »

In honor of one of the very best holidays around, we here at the Big Ten Microsite have come up with some of the scariest things different players, coaches, and even referees might have to face in the coming season. Welcome to our 2015-16 Scary Superlatives.

Troy Williams is the stuff nightmares are made of for a lone defender back on defense (USA Today Sports).

• Scariest Dunker Who Could Put You on a Poster: Troy Williams, Indiana. Williams is one the best athletes in the league, and he has already assembled a solid little highlight reel of dunks in his two years in Bloomington. Being the only man back in transition defense when Indiana has a 3-on-1 break going is definitely nightmare-worthy.
• Scariest Clutch Shooter: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State. The man whose last name conjures up imagery from a different kind of holiday celebration proved his ability to make big shots when his game-winning dagger shattered the hearts of the residents of Columbus, Ohio, last season. Not too many B1G coaches would feel very comfortable in an endgame situation when the Michigan State senior has the ball.

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Note: Best of the B1G: Top Non-Conference November Games published earlier this week.

After the holiday tournaments come to a close at the end of November, the December non-conference slate in the Big Ten is clearly and unequivocally highlighted by the annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge. These should be the two deepest basketball conferences in the land and the match-ups on tap should not disappoint. There are some other games after this event that are also worth checking out as well, several of which could have NCAA Tournament ramifications. Here are the best December games involving Big Ten teams.

December 1

Mark Turgeon and Maryland get a early chance to make a national statement. (USA TODAY Sports)

• Maryland-North Carolina: Two former ACC foes renew their longtime rivalry, and do so in a season where they are both expected to be title contenders. This game could not only be the best game in the B1G non-conference slate, but also potentially one of the best in all of college basketball.
• Michigan-NC State: Two teams that barely missed a preseason ranking in the coaches poll, and two teams that will get up and down the floor. This game could loom large in March if either team is on the bubble at that time.
• Ohio State-Virginia: There’s a very good chance that the Buckeyes will be 5-0 coming into this game, offering the first chance for the nation to see how Thad Matta’s youngsters can handle one of the best defenses around.

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Despite the large number of games involving Big Ten teams during the first weekend of college basketball, things don’t really get going until the the following Tuesday of ESPN’s Tip-Off Marathon as the Gavitt Games (including Maryland, Penn State and Nebraska) and the Champions Classic (Michigan State) tip off. Much of the best non-conference action will come from the former event, which will pit the Big Ten against the Big East for eight games over four days. In chronological order, here’s a look at most of the marquee Big Ten match-ups during the first month of the season.  Potential late-round games in holiday tournaments are also included with an assumption that brackets will hold true to form.

November 17

• Maryland-Georgetown: Lofty preseason expectations for Maryland aside, this one is going to be absolutely huge within the Beltway. These two teams — located just 10 miles apart in the DC area — should play every year, so it’s a treat to get this match-up so early in the season.
• Michigan State-Kansas: The Spartans can make an early statement here, as both teams have legitimate national expectations coming into the season. Whether you are looking for veterans who have seemingly been in college for 27 years (Denzel Valentine and Perry Ellis), or rookie superstars (Devonta Davis and Cheick Diallo), this one will be worth watching.

Denzel Valentine Is Back For A Final Season In Spartan Green And White (Photo: USAT Sports)

November 18

• Illinois-Providence: Part of the Gavitt Games, the Illini will have a difficult test without Kendrick Dunn as they travel to Rhode Island to take on consensus preseason All-American Kris Dunn.

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Even in an era where many teams within both college and pro basketball are making the decision to go smaller with their lineups, the massive post player is not dead. Need proof? Look at top-three NBA draft picks Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, who parlayed their respective one-and-done seasons into multi-million dollar contracts. On that note, three B1G freshmen will enter college basketball this season looking to achieve similar results, with high expectations and impressive pedigrees in tow. Rookie Thomas Bryant will give an Indiana unit with shooters galore some height on the interior. Freshman prospect Diamond Stone spurned his home school in Wisconsin to join a Maryland team with legitimate National Championship hopes. Lastly, newcomer Caleb Swanigan de-committed from Michigan State to team with the heavyweight tag team of AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas at Purdue. All three will almost surely have an impact on the league this season, but which one will be the biggest force?

Diamond Stone Gives Maryland the Size It Needs (Photo: WaPo)

Bryant, for one, seems to be exactly what Indiana needs. Last season the Hoosiers were outstanding offensively, ranking ninth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They did so predominantly by shooting the lights out and simultaneously cutting down on the turnovers that plagued them in 2013-14. You have to figure that adding a legitimate post player with significant offensive ability will only enhance the Hoosiers’ opportunities to find quality looks from the perimeter. But even more importantly for Tom Crean’s squad, Bryant really needs to make his presence known on the defensive end. Indiana cannot rank anywhere close to last season’s 214th best (worst?) defensive unit in the land if it wants to improve upon a 20-14 mark. The combination of Bryant and Michigan transfer Max Bielfeldt gives the team much more in the way of size and bulk than they had a year ago. With a true big man defending the rim, Troy Williams and the Hoosiers’ other wings should be able to apply more ball pressure.

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