In Hoops We Trust: On Early Returns…
Posted by Joshua Lars Weill on November 30th, 2016So, we’re three weeks in now, and while a majority of games have pitted teams expecting to win against teams expecting a paycheck, the holidays brought us some great major-on-major (and strong mid-major) action courtesy of a number of neutral site “tournaments.” North Carolina won Maui; Baylor won Atlantis; Gonzaga won the AdvoCare Invitational (okay); and Valparaiso won whatever the hell the “Men Who Speak Up Heavyweight Bracket” is. Geez, these things are getting worse than FBS Bowl Games (See also: the Poulan Weedeater Bowl). There have been a few surprises along the way. Butler, Baylor, and South Carolina are all undefeated with some good resume wins. Xavier and Creighton are lingering around and have the talent to stay there. Michigan State looks way down early after losing most of its experienced players to graduation. Indiana laid an absolute stinker on Indiana University–Purdue University Fort Wayne (say that five times real fast)’s home court.
Another year, another season where Butler fans have a lot to cheer about. (Credit: Kyle LaFerriere)
Meanwhile, some of the usual suspects sit atop the rankings. Kentucky is demoralizing lesser opponents, relying on arguably the best three-guard backcourt in the country. Defending champ Villanova is rolling thanks to an All-American start from Josh Hart. North Carolina has a lot of offensive weapons with five players averaging double figures. Duke is banged up but clearly has the goods. Kansas is relying heavily on its experienced backcourt and will need its other players to step up as the season moves along. No one can score against Virginia. And Gonzaga and St. Mary’s—both undefeated to date—look to be on a collision course (again) in the WCC. All in all, it’s been a great start to the 2016-17 season. There are lots of questions as yet unanswered — Who will slow down Kentucky and North Carolina? When will Duke get its hot shot freshmen into the lineup? Can Xavier or Creighton keep their undefeated runs into the Big East season and beyond? — that will keep us watching through the holiday season.
Some meaty made-for-TV games will help answer some of those questions. Get ready for North Carolina-Indiana (tonight), Kentucky-UCLA (Saturday), Gonzaga-Arizona (Saturday), and Kentucky-North Carolina (December 17), to name but a few. These and other well-matched tilts should give us a clearer picture of who the contenders really are as the new year turns.
MISSING IN THE MIDDLE
In case you hadn’t noticed, small ball is in. With the exception of 7’6” mega-dude Tacko Fall at Central Florida, there are very few really big men as the centerpiece of teams this season. In fact, when you do see the big guys, you’re as likely to see them shooting three-pointers as you are making a series of textbook back-to-the-basket spins and shot fakes. Three-guard lineups and stretch-four forwards dominate the hoops landscape these days. To wit: Among the current top 10 shot-blockers in college basketball, only Georgia Tech’s Ben Lammers (6’10”/227 lbs), Baylor’s Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (7’0”/220), Arkansas’ Moses Kingsley (6’10”/230), and Oregon’s Chris Boucher (6’10”/200) play in major conferences. Among that group, only Lammers and Boucher currently average double-figure points as well.
Once upon a time, a Titanic matchup between a Tacko Fall and Mamadou Ndiaye was pretty common — not anymore. (Orlando Sentinel)
Meanwhile, only two of the country’s current top 10 rebounders ply their trade in Power Five conferences: Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan (6’9”/250) and Washington State’s Josh Hawkinson (6’10”/230). Nowhere in that list are centers from blue-bloods like Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Indiana, UCLA or North Carolina. Missing, it appears, are traditional low-post scorers in the vein of Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor. Yes, there are some very talented, very large guys making life miserable for opponents — guys like Kentucky’s Bam Adebayo and Indiana’s Thomas Bryant. But a quick scan of the current Top 25 shows a lot of guard-dominated teams. Does this signal the end of the straight-up power center? Of course not. But it does reflect the changing nature of college offense. Teams that rely on inside-out offense are becoming increasingly rare, often because size is such a commodity at the next level. For now, it’s a guard’s game. Lucky for us fans, there are a lot of brilliant guards across the country for us to enjoy.
WHAT’S UP, Y’ALL?
Scoring, it would appear. There are currently 12 teams averaging over 90 points per game, and no team has averaged over 90 points per game since the 2008-09 season. Even better, five of the top six highest-scoring teams at this point come from major conferences, meaning they are less likely to be smaller program “system” offenses geared for run-and-gun basketball. The increase in scoring is even starker when you realize that game scores cratered as recently as the 2012-13 season, when Northwestern State led the nation with a measly 81 points per contest. Clamping down on hand-check defense, not calling fake-ass charges (sorry, Duke fans) and implementation of the 30-second shot clock appear to have helped open up the pace and overall quality of play. It’s also refreshing to see fewer referees trying to “take charge” of the game. It’s an old complaint, but it still applies: No one ever paid money to see the referees in action. It’s very early to judge what will happen in the end. Once conference play begins, those 40-point wins over Directional Tech will no longer be there. But given how slow, plodding, and, well, boring the games were just a few years ago, here’s hoping that the rule changes put into effect continue to bear their fruit.
