As recently as the 2012-13 season, Purdue ranked among the bottom 100 teams nationally (253rd) in three-point shooting. As the team’s perimeter marksmanship has steadily improved since hitting a low point of 32.7 percent the following season, the Boilermakers’ record has tracked correspondingly. Now, at the midpoint of the 2016-17 campaign, Matt Painter’s team is shooting a scorching 40.6 percent from behind the arc, already making 10 or more threes in seven games this season. If Purdue’s hot shooting continues, it has a chance to become one of the best deep shooting teams in the Big Ten over the last five years. How do the Boilermakers compare with the best in the league over this time span? And what does it mean as we slowly turn the corner toward March?

Ryan Cline is one of five Purdue players connecting on over 40 percent from the three-point line. (John Terhune, Journal &Courier).

For the sake of this exercise, three components were analyzed: team three-point percentage; team effective field goal percentage; and the number of players shooting over 40 percent who make at least one three-pointer per game. Ten Big Ten teams have made at least 37.9 percent of their three-point shots since the 2012-13 season. The best of the bunch was last season’s Michigan State squad at 43.4 percent, which led the nation. Purdue’s marksmanship so far this season ties for third. From an eFG perspective, last year’s Indiana team led the nation (58.7%), while Purdue’s 57.0 percent through 19 games comes in behind the Hoosiers. Finally, that same group from Indiana boasted five excellent shooters, as do this year’s Boilermakers. In the aggregate, Purdue finishes no worse than third in any of these metrics, which means that if it maintains the pace, it should definitely be mentioned as one of the best shooting teams in the Big Ten over the last five years. Here’s a look at the data.

• Indiana 2012-13: (40.3% 3FG, 54.8% eFG, Watford 48.4%, Hulls 44.4%, Oladipo 44.1%)
• Michigan 2012-13: (37.9% 3FG, 54.6% eFG, Stauskas 44.0%)
• Michigan 2013-14: (40.2 3FG, 55.7% eFG, Stauskas 44.2%, Irvin 42.5%, Walton 41.0%, LeVert 40.8%)
• Michigan State 2013-14: (39.2% 3FG, 54.5% eFG, Kaminski 49.4%, Trice 43.4%, Payne 42.3%)
• Indiana 2014-15: (40.6% 3FG, 54.4% eFG, Hartman 47.5%, Zeisloft 45.0%, Ferrell 41.6%)

• Michigan State 2014-15: (38.5% 3FG, 53.2% eFG, Forbes 42.7%, Valentine 41.6%)
• Michigan State 2015-16: ( 43.4% 3FG, 56.3% eFG, Forbes 48.1%, Valentine 44.4%, Harris 43.9%, McQuaid 40.9%)
• Indiana 2015-16: (41.6% 3FG, 58.7% eFG, Blackmon 46.3%, Bielfeldt 45.3%, Johnson 44.7%, Ferrell 42.0%, Zeisloft 41.7%)
• Michigan 2015-16: (38.0% 3FG, 54.5% eFG, Robinson 45.2%, LeVert 45.0%, Dawkins 43.3%)
• Purdue 2016-17: ( 40.6% 3FG, 57.0% eFG, Swanigan 47.2%, Mathias 47.1%, V.Edwards 44.6%, Cline 44.4%, Thompson 41.0%)

So what does this mean for Purdue? For starters, the other nine elite shooting teams all made the NCAA Tournament, and six of the nine made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Two made it to the Elite Eight, two to the Final Four, and Michigan in 2013, of course, rolled all the way to the National Championship game. Offense is a very important piece to the puzzle, but Purdue’s defense also compares favorably in comparison with these nine teams. The Boilermakers’ 23rd-ranked defense, per KenPom, is third-best among these units. Only Indiana in 2012-13 (Sweet Sixteen) and Michigan State in 2013-14 (Elite Eight) were better at getting stops.

This is not to say that the residents of West Lafayette should start booking their tickets to Arizona for the Final Four. But it does show that if Purdue can maintain its shooting accuracy while not allowing its defensive efforts to slip, it has a great chance to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. An off shooting night from the perimeter can be offset with Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas carving teams up inside, and a solid defense can keep the Boilermakers in the game in the event of a team coming out on fire. Both the numbers and the eye test suggest that Purdue will be a dangerous team in March, perhaps even the Big Ten’s best chance at having a team play in the final weekend.

Brendan Brody (307 Posts)

Brendan Brody is in his fourth season covering the Big Ten for RTC. Email him at brendan.brody@gmail.com, or follow him on twitter @berndon4.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 19th, 2017 at 3:35 pm by Brendan Brody and is filed under big ten, feature, microsites. Tagged: caleb swanigan, Dakota Mathias, indiana, michigan, michigan state, PJ Thompson, purdue, ryan cline, Vincent Edwards. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.