It didn’t take long for the Big 12 hierarchy to crystallize, at least at the top of the standings. Kansas took the early driver’s seat, as expected, and despite a few noticeable flaws that could ultimately snap The Streak if left uncorrected, the Jayhawks are still the team to beat. Just a notch under them, Baylor and West Virginia are both capable of chasing down the Jayhawks, but no other teams are in that camp. Below the Bears and Mountaineers but above Oklahoma State, Texas and Oklahoma is the murky middle, where the differences between teams at the top and bottom of this tier is tough to discern and could come down to a mere handful of possessions, if the first week of conference action is any indication. With two league games under each team’s belt, here’s how the race for fourth place in the Big 12 is shaping up.

Kansas State center Dean Wade gives the Wildcats an early edge on the middle of the Big 12 pack. (Statesman.com)

• Kansas State — Lost in the aftermath of all the traveling jokes and memes from Tuesday night’s game against Kansas is that the Wildcats came up with a truly impressive offensive performance. Bruce Weber’s team posted 1.22 points per trip at The Phog, marking one of the best outputs by a Jayhawk opponent in recent years. The Wildcats appear to be gelling, but one reason why the last couple seasons in Manhattan have been so disappointing is because they’ve had a tendency to play inspired ball in marquee games only to go flat in subsequent efforts, so consistency will be a key. Still, judging solely from the first six weeks of the season, nothing from this team’s resume suggests that Kansas State isn’t capable of pulling it off. Fourth-place probability: 40%.

• Iowa State — The Cyclones were dominated in the paint by Baylor on Wednesday night, but they still had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime (although Steve Prohm wasn’t pleased with how his team’s final possession began). Iowa State remains in search for answers down low, but if there was ever a Big 12 season to be in that situation, a year in which backcourts are much more stout than the big men is the right one. With scheduled dates against Texas, Oklahoma State and TCU leading into a Big Monday tilt against Kansas on MLK Day, Iowa State has a chance to gather a head of steam over the next two weeks. Fourth-place probability: 30%.
• Texas Tech — It’s easy to envision a few teams ahead of Texas Tech based solely on its overall profile. Like Kansas State, the Red Raiders didn’t accomplish much in non-conference play; and like Iowa State, they possess strong offensive weapons throughout a very experienced lineup. Beating West Virginia was an excellent start, but hanging with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday will be a much taller order. After that, though? KenPom projects wins for the Red Raiders in seven of their next eight match-ups. Keep a close eye on Chris Beard‘s squad over the rest of the month. Fourth-place probability: 20%.
• TCU — No, the Horned Frogs aren’t ready for prime time quite yet, but an excellent effort against the Jayhawks last Friday followed up by a nine-point comeback win against Oklahoma on Tuesday night are accomplishments that a budding program like TCU can build from. Fourth-place probability: 10%.

Brian Goodman (987 Posts)

Brian Goodman a Big 12 microsite writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 5th, 2017 at 4:15 pm by Brian Goodman and is filed under big 12, feature, microsites. Tagged: iowa state, kansas state, oklahoma state, tcu, texas tech. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.