Freeze Frame: Kentucky’s Achilles Heel
Posted by Brian Joyce on December 7th, 2016We may look back in March at last weekend’s match-up between Kentucky and UCLA and recall that the Bruins were the first team to outline the blueprint to beat the Wildcats. But while John Calipari‘s defense conceded 1.17 points per possession against the red-hot Bruins (which represents the worst non-conference home defensive effort in the Calipari era), it was the offensive end of the court that proved more concerning. Yes, Kentucky’s young defenders looked a little lost at times, and Calipari even pointed to his team’s woeful defense after the game. “For us, this wasn’t about offense,” he said. “We weren’t a disciplined enough team defensively.” But we all know that Kentucky’s defense will look much different in March than it does now, with different being code for improved.
John Calipari was not happy with Kentucky’s defense, but it’s his offense that is more concerning in the long run. (cbssports.com)
Even though the Wildcats scored 1.11 points per possession against the Bruins, the bigger concern exhibited in that loss was about a half-court offense that struggled mightily against a mediocre defense. The Wildcats, one of fastest teams in the country at 75.2 possessions per game, are virtually unstoppable in the open court. However, UCLA’s hot shooting forced Kentucky to operate the majority of its offense in the half-court, ultimately exposing the Wildcats’ fatal flaw – its inconsistent three-point shooting.
The questions about Kentucky’s three-point shooting have been there all season long, but many thought those concerns were somewhat overblown. UCLA’s sagging defense proved otherwise, because the Bruins’ lack of respect for the Wildcats’ outside shooters removed much of what the Wildcats like to do on offense. Outside of Mychal Mulder, a senior who doesn’t see a lot of playing time in big games, and freshman Malik Monk, nobody on the team has converted more than six three-pointers on the season.
Kentucky lacks consistent outside shooting with Mulder on the bench.
This stark lack of consistent outside shooting has a huge effect on Kentucky’s offensive tendencies. Calipari loves to run the high pick-and-roll with point guard De’Aaron Fox and big man Bam Adebayo, but UCLA simply clogged the lane when the roller headed to the rim. In the below screen shot, both Dominique Hawkins and Isaiah Briscoe‘s (combined 5-of-26 from beyond the arc this season) defenders sag into the lane, giving Fox little room to operate at the top of the key.
Nowhere for Fox to go.
Later, Fox and Adebayo run the same play, but Hawkins’ man is camped out in the lane daring Fox to swing the ball to Hawkins for a long-range bomb.
Same play, same results.
Kentucky has gotten great results from Monk’s mid-range game. In the below image, the freshman looks to pull up for the jumper just outside the paint but all five UCLA defenders drop down to guard both Monk as well as any lob attempt or offensive rebound. The outside shooting liability of both Briscoe and Hawkins forces Kentucky to play three-on-five in this situation.
Again, Hawkins and Briscoe do not represent a realistic threat from outside.
After taking just four shots in the first half, Calipari looks to establish Adebayo in the low post in the second half. There is very little room to operate there, though, as only one UCLA defender stays close to his man (Monk’s defender) while the other four Bruins swarm the freshman and ultimately force a contested shot.
Adebayo is surrounded.
For all the talk about Kentucky’s defense after Saturday’s loss, there should be little concern about its long-term effectiveness. This team’s quickness and athleticism will create turnovers and protect the rim well enough to again keep the Wildcats among the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. Effort, consistency, rotations, help defense, and closing down on open shooters will come to this group over time. However, Kentucky’s outside shooting is a flaw that will eventually catch up to it on the offensive end of the floor. If Calipari cannot find a reliable outside shooting threat, opposing defenses will continually sag into the lane like UCLA did, making it difficult for the Wildcats to run effective half-court offense. Kentucky is certainly good enough to win nearly every remaining game on its schedule — including the SEC regular season and tournament championships — but without better long-range shooting, the Wildcats may not be good enough to win six straight games in March.
Brian Joyce is an advanced metrics enthusiast, college hoops junkie, and writer for the SEC basketball microsite for Rush the Court.
