NCAA Tournament Instareaction: Big East
Posted by Justin Kundrat on March 13th, 2016In terms of the bubble, there was little surprise about the five Big East teams that were going to make the Big Dance. Rather, the biggest outstanding question was how their draws would play out. For a number of the middle-seeded teams, first weekend matchups mean nearly everything for postseason success. Below is a review of how the selection process concluded for each Big East team and what they should expect for the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova, #2 seed, South Region. A surprising and frustrating choice for many Villanova fans. Few expected to receive a #1 seed after losing to Seton Hall last night, but many expected the opportunity to play in the Philadelphia regional rather than being shipped to the South region. Nevertheless, Villanova’s opening pod is a favorable one. The Wildcats handily beat Temple on its own floor a few weeks ago and Iowa has struggled mightily over its last 10 games. The Hawkeyes should beat the Owls, but their guard play is weak and the team has no dominant interior presence. A matchup against Villanova would be a battle of wings against a team that isn’t particularly strong at defending the paint. On paper, Villanova should handle it well.
Villanova’s Big East Title Game Loss May Have Cost Them A #1 Seed (USA Today Sports)
Xavier, #2 seed, East Region. Xavier should be happy with this placement. Weber State won lot of games but succeeded only once over a team in KenPom‘s top 150. Looking forward, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin are the Musketeers’ possible second round opponents — both are big, physical teams that play a slower-paced game. Neither is particularly adept at forcing turnovers, a point of weakness for the Musketeers, but Wisconsin is probably the more dangerous team. Given the Badgers’ impressive recent stretch (winners of 10 of its last 13 games) and ability to control tempo, Xavier will need to bring its best game. It says here, however, that Wisconsin will struggle to shoot well enough to challenge Chris Mack’s team.
Seton Hall, #6 seed, Midwest Region. Now this is an interesting draw. First round opponent Gonzaga is one of the biggest teams in the country and converts at an incredibly efficient rate in the paint. This is in sharp contrast with a Seton Hall team that prides itself on post defense and the ability to keep its opponents out of the lane. Also of relevance: Gonzaga has a relatively weak backcourt, rarely forces turnovers and struggles with athletic guards. Seton Hall’s guards — led by Isaiah Whitehead — should dominate that part of the matchup. However, it will remain critical that Seton Hall’s interior players stay out of foul trouble against the Bulldogs’ front line. If the Pirates escape Gonzaga, a similarly built team in Utah is likely to be waiting. If the Hall can figure the Zags out, might beating Utah feel a bit easier?
Providence, #9 seed, East Region. Providence will face USC in its First Round game, a long team at every position that likes to get up and down the floor. With Kris Dunn and Kyron Cartwright hounding the passing lanes, this should play very well into the Friars’ hands. Less conveniently for Ed Cooley’s team, the Trojans have a frontcourt rotation that includes three contributors over 6’10”, which means that Ben Bentil will have his work cut out on the glass. Dunn is likely to excel in the kind of transition game USC wants to play; if he does, Providence is a good bet to advance and face North Carolina in Raleigh.
Butler, #9 seed, Midwest Region. Butler faces a team in Texas Tech that doesn’t really stand out in any particular category other than to say it is incredibly battle-tested. The Red Raiders played one of the toughest schedules in the country this year and emerged from the vicious Big 12 with a respectable .500 record. Butler matches up pretty well in size with them, but the important part will be scoring effectively in the half-court. Because Texas Tech rarely plays in games with more than 70 possessions, expect a grind-it-out affair where Chris Holtmann’s group tends to excel.
Villanova grad, patiently waiting another 10 years for season tickets. Follow Justin on twitter @JustinKundrat or email him at justin.kundrat@gmail.com
