The Devils’ Doldrums: Could Duke Miss The NCAA Tournament?
Posted by Matt Patton on January 26th, 2016After Duke‘s 11 point loss at Miami, Seth Davis tweeted: “It is time to acknowledge the possibility that Duke will not make the NCAA tournament.” Some context for that tweet: Duke has lost four of its last five, including two games at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Since losing Amile Jefferson to a foot injury, the Blue Devils are 7-5 with exactly one win against the KenPom top 100. That’s not exactly a resume that screams NCAA Tournament. On the other side of the equation: Duke is still 20th in KenPom‘s ratings, its RPI projects to remain in the 20s according to RPI Forecast, and there’s evidence Jefferson’s condition is improving. Perhaps most importantly, losing by 11 to a really good Miami team shouldn’t be a cause for concern, and really it was just a two possession game with less than a minute left.
Duke Didn’t Have The Legs To Hang With Miami. What Does That Mean For The Blue Devils Going Forward? (Photo: Chuck Liddy/News & Observer)
Maybe the most amazing factoid about Duke’s current start (courtesy of Patrick Stevens): If the ACC Tournament started tomorrow, Duke and Virginia would face off as the ninth and eighth seeds on Wednesday. So then, the ultimate question: Will Duke miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the infamous Pete Gaudet season? There are three ways this might play out.
Duke never gets Jefferson back
Obviously, this is the worst-case scenario for Duke fans. The Blue Devils need Jefferson to come close to reaching their full potential. While Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram grab headlines, Jefferson has always been the important glue guy for this Duke team. Without Jefferson this season, Duke has been pedestrian, and it’s easy to see the six-man rotation running into a concrete wall as the season wears on. Why is the rotation stuck at six? In a year or two, Chase Jeter might be able to take up the slack. But in Duke’s last six games Jeter has played 14 minutes and committed 11 fouls while scoring zero points. So yeah, six sounds better than seven at this point. Back to the point, Duke needs at least one “hang your hat” win without Jefferson to calm any concern of Selection Sunday disappointment. That could come at the ACC Tournament, but the Blue Devils will also have opportunities against Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina (all three of whom travel to Durham) in advance of the postseason. Still, it isn’t impossible to envision a scenario where Duke collapses down the stretch – perhaps losing at Georgia Tech, eking by NC State, then spontaneously combusting in the brutal four-game stretch against Louisville (twice), Virginia, and North Carolina. That would leave Coach K and company in quite a predicament down the stretch, where they would be looking at games versus hungry Florida State and Pittsburgh, then a season finale with North Carolina.
Duke Has Proven Amile Jefferson’s Worth In His Absence (Photo: AP Photo/Erik Perel).
Jefferson comes back for the postseason
This scenario might sound familiar to Duke fans who have watched Kyrie Irving and Carlos Boozer make the same return. The problem here is Jefferson is neither Irving (a national player of the year frontrunner) nor Boozer (an All-American). Jefferson is an energy supplying glue guy. And how does the Selection Committee take Jefferson’s return into account? History says they ignore it, though it certainly couldn’t hurt the Blue Devils if they were on the bubble. One positive in the situation: given Jefferson’s low maintenance offensive ways, he would probably fit seamlessly back into the Duke system. He doesn’t require the ball in his hands since much of his production comes from offensive boards and drivers drawing defenders. But if the team doesn’t have legs left, or has already sabotaged the season, his return won’t help much. In this case, barring a total collapse down the stretch, Duke makes the NCAA Tournament as a total wildcard and becomes the most frightening #8 or #9 seed since 2014 Kentucky or 2013 Wichita State.
Jefferson comes back in time to play a few conference games
Obviously, this is the most optimistic scenario. Here Duke possibly avoids running out of gas while also giving the team a chance to readapt to Jefferson’s presence. Here, Duke could presumably return to being the top ten team it looked like at the start of the season, and the seeding dilemma for the committee would grow only tougher. Duke with Jefferson could loom as a dangerous unit again.
At the end of the day, barring an implosion, this Duke team should still make the NCAA Tournament. Mike Krzyzewski‘s eight year streak with a top three seed appears very likely to end, but a lot still has to go wrong for the team to miss the Big Dance entirely.
