Louisville’s Second Legitimate Test of the Season Awaits in Lexington
Posted by Matt Auerbach on December 26th, 2015The elephant in the room with respect to Louisville’s 11-1 start is the uncharacteristically weak competition it faced to compile its gaudy record. None of the Cardinals’ wins have come against a team rated higher than #131, according to KenPom, and that team was Grand Canyon. To their credit, Dan Majerle’s charges own a win over San Diego State, but nevertheless, the softness of this team’s schedule has left many wondering just how good this team is as it heads into its annual tussle with archrival Kentucky.
Kentucky vs. Louisville is Must-See TV For College Basketball Fans (USA Today Images)
Statistically speaking, the Cardinals have been terrific. Employing its typically stingy defense, Louisville ranks third overall in defensive efficiency (89.9 points per 100 possessions) and fourth in defensive effective field goal percentage (40.4%). Sparked by graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, the Cards have also outperformed expectations offensively, ranking 20th in efficiency (113.4 points per 100 possessions), led by Lee’s 13th-best national offensive rating (137.3). Shooting a blistering 57.5 percent from inside the arc, the Cards have also proven to be remarkably adept when they misfire, rebounding greater than 44.3 percent of their misses, good for second nationally.
Impressive as all that sounds, it isn’t unreasonable to scoff at the numbers when considering Louisville’s level of competition, ranked as the 332nd toughest schedule to this point. The Cards’ lone loss may have been the most instructive data point, in a good way, as the Cardinals led top-ranked Michigan State for the majority of their game in East Lansing only to fall victim to the expert playmaking of Denzel Valentine down the stretch. Perhaps the most positively illuminating development was the play of Lee, who was the best player on the floor for much of the night, proving to any doubters that his game would translate to the high-major level.
While some outsiders unfamiliar with them may have questioned the additions of Lee and Lewis, most of Rick Pitino’s on-court concerns heading into the season centered on the extraordinary youth filling out the rest of his roster. After averaging a mere four points per game as a freshman, point guard Quentin Snider was the Cards’ leading returning scorer. The unintended consequence of a weak non-conference slate, however, is the benefit it has had in providing the youthful Cardinals a chance to develop their confidence. Snider has enhanced his production to the tune of 10 points and four assists per game while continuing his proclivity for taking care of the basketball. Classmate Chinanu Onuaku has taken a major step forward as well, shooting 63 percent from the floor while ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 17.7 percent.
Onuaku, along with fellow sophomore bigs Anas Mahmoud and Jaylen Johnson, and improving freshman starter Raymond Spalding, will be a primary focus in today’s matchup with the Wildcats. Louisville’s most reliable and accomplished frontcourt player, Mangok Mathiang, suffered a broken left foot during last week’s victory over Western Kentucky, and he is expected to miss a minimum of six weeks. This means that the extended minutes the youthful frontcourt has received in all the lopsided victories will perhaps prove to be advantageous heading into the meat of the schedule.
And that meat begins being served this afternoon at Rupp Arena. Victorious against his archrival in seven of eight games during his tenure at Kentucky, John Calipari is no doubt chomping at the bit to return to action after a humbling loss in Brooklyn to Ohio State a week ago. We can unquestionably expect an inspired and motivated effort from the Big Blue, and with that, the tale of what we can expect from Louisville and its prospective ceiling for this season’s campaign will begin to come into focus. At the moment, it is hard to view Louisville as anything more than an interesting but still unproven commodity. The enigma that is the Cardinals will begin to be unwrapped, appropriately enough, today, the day after Christmas.
