Atlantic 10 Postseason Previews
Posted by Joe Dzuback (@vbtnblog) on March 17th, 2015Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vbtnblog.
Sunday, Sunday
As expected, the Atlantic 10 sent six teams to the postseason: three to the NCAA Tournament — Davidson, Dayton and Virginia Commonwealth — the other three to the NIT — George Washington, Richmond and Rhode Island. VCU benefited the most, not just with the championship and accompanying automatic bid, but in seemingly finding some of the answers that Shaka Smart has been searching for much of the season.
Will the home court advantage give a slightly tired Dayton team the boost it needs? (AP)
NCAA Bound
Dayton head coach Archie Miller was reluctant to admit that the cumulative effect of a 33-game schedule may have played a role in his Flyers’ blowout loss to Virginia Commonwealth in the Atlantic 10 Tournament championship game on Sunday. “These guys, they have battled hard all year so it’s kind of hard to say we are finally tired. I don’t think we played tired.” He later tacitly acknowledged that sophomore point guard Scoochie Smith, who carried a good deal of the offensive burden through Dayton’s three-game run in Brooklyn, may have been feeling it. “He may be the one guy I look and say from a legs perspective he had some really good looks and was short on all of them, so hopefully we get Scoochie back.” The Selection Committee essentially said to the Flyers, “You get to open the Tournament at home! On three days rest” — a classic good news/bad news punch line. Their opponent, Boise State, will traverse a time zone to make the game. Smith, along with consistent play-makers Kendall Pollard and senior Jordan Sibert, should win this game, and after another two-day layoff and a bus ride to Columbus, will face #6 Providence, another uptempo team with a short bench.
The Selection Committee rewarded Davidson‘s unexpected regular season conference title with a #10 seed and a Friday date with Iowa. The Hawkeyes tied for third place in Big Ten play and, much like Davidson, rely on perimeter conversions to put points on the board. Their 39.3 percent three-point conversion rate is ranked 17th nationally, although the Flyers approach those shots much more deliberately than the Wildcats. The Wildcats will want to run, spread the floor and use passing and backdoor cuts to develop scoring opportunities. Iowa defends the three-point line better than the interior but does not attack the ball, an approach VCU was able to employ successfully on Saturday. Bob McKillop‘s centers are really mobile forwards who make Davidson’s offense even quicker. As many in the conference learned this season, a team that plays Davidson’s game is likely to lose, but, as VCU and La Salle showed over the weekend, disrupting their run-outs and slowing them to a half-court game will improve your chances dramatically. Bracketologist and RPI-flavored ranking systems have undervalued Davidson’s record largely because its non-conference schedule (ranked 231st) was designed as a SoCon farewell tour rather than a preparation for conference play. McKillop will have to rethink that approach next season. He can beat a better slate and the conference needs to have Davidson step up in that area for the betterment of the league as a whole. Beat Iowa and the Wildcats will (most likely) advance to play Gonzaga on Sunday.
Bob McKillop and Davidson are primed for another postseason run. (AP)
Virginia Commonwealth was the conference favorite going in, and despite a season filled with injuries and other distractions, the Rams have emerged as the Atlantic 10’s strongest representative. The body of work VCU put together in Brooklyn suggests that the team is peaking at the right time, much unlike last season. Of the three NCAA Tournament representatives, VCU best used the conference tournament to prepare for this week’s action. HAVOC was in full force all weekend long as the Rams forced opponents into 39 turnovers. And although the team was plagued by an inconsistent offense for much of the season, the Rams posted impressive numbers in each of their three games last weekend. Moe Alie-Cox, a talented low post player whose skill set doesn’t match what Smart typically looks for in his defensive system, was named to the All-Tournament Team. Cox gives the team a low post dimension that Smart has not had since Jamie Skeen on the 2011 Final Four team. The Selection Committee slotted the Rams #7 in the West against #10 seed Ohio State in Portland on Thursday. Cox may give up five inches to Buckeyes’ center Amir Williams, but Williams will have his hands full with the undersized Ram. Smart rotated taller players on to Davidson and Dayton’s shooters and switched into 1-3-1 zones several times to disrupt their half-court sets. The Rams should advance to a Saturday game with #2 seed Arizona, a team more than a few thought would get the top seed out west. That should be a very good matchup.
NIT Bound — Richmond, Rhode Island and George Washington
Weekend conference tournament results pushed a few bubble teams into the NIT, which scrambled the top two seed lines. Richmond, however, drew a #1 seed (#4 overall) in the runner-up tourney. If chalk holds, Chris Mooney’s squad should have three home games before heading up to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals on March 31. The Spiders will host NEC regular season champion St. Francis of New York Wednesday. The Terriers boast a 23-11 record, going 15-3 in conference play with a rotation of seven players who stand at 6’6″ and under. Scoring has been a challenge that coach Glenn Braica has not resolved. The Spiders’ backcourt itself may be height-challenged (senior Kendall Anthony is 5’11” while sophomore ShawnDre` Jones is 5’10”), but their wings and frontcourt rotation include three players (juniors Terry Allen and Deion Taylor, along with sophomore T.J. Cline) 6’7″ or taller. Their second round opponent will be either Connecticut or Arizona State. Either would be more competitive, but the Spiders should prevail.
The NIT is a perfect venue for Rhode Island, described as “young” several times by coach Dan Hurley. Seeded #3, the NIT field is a good place to give his freshmen and sophomores a taste of the postseason while extending the season by a few more games. First up for Rhody is Iona, regular season winners in the MAAC who dropped the conference tournament championship to Monmouth. The Gaels have an explosive offense, which will make this a classic strong offense versus strong defense game (URI is ranked ninth nationally in offensive efficiency). The Rams’ offense is prone to turn the ball over, a problem that Iona is not likely to exploit. Rhody rebounds; Iona does not. Iona does not have a counter for senior forward/center Gilvydas Biruta or junior Hassan Martin, both of whom can have big nights on both ends.
George Washington, seeded #5, drew the toughest first round assignment as the Colonials will have to travel to Pittsburgh for a game with the Panthers. Pitt tied for 10th in the ACC this season and was eliminated by North Carolina State in the second round of the ACC Tournament.Jamie Dixon’s underclassmen-heavy squad will host GW on Wednesday night. The Panthers’ highly efficient offense compensates merely average shot conversion by not committing turnovers and dominating the offfensive glass. GW’s defense is good, but it will need superb efforts from Kevin Larsen and Jon Kopriva to shut down Pitt sophomore Michael Young. Senior wing Cameron Wright converts three-point attempts at a 40 percent clip, but the rest of the squad converts well down into the 30s. The Colonials are 4-9 in hostile venues this season.
