NCAA Tournament Instareaction: Big East Teams
Posted by Justin Kundrat on March 15th, 2015In terms of the bubble, there was little surprise about the six Big East teams that were going to make the Dance. The biggest outstanding question was how the draws would play out. For a number of the middle-seeded teams, the first weekend matchups mean everything for their postseason success. Below is a review of how the selection process played out for each Big East team and what they should expect for the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova, #1 seed, East region. No surprise here. After winning the Big East Tournament and ending its season on a 15-game winning streak, Villanova was all but locked in for a #1 seed. After Duke and Virginia both suffered early defeats in ACC Tournament, Villanova moved up and claimed regional preference, providing the Wildcats with the opportunity to play in Syracuse should they advance. After presumably moving past Lafayette in the first round, Villanova will take on either LSU or NC State next. LSU is incredibly turnover prone, which would feed right into the Wildcats’ push for transition baskets. NC State could potentially be more problematic, having beaten Duke, North Carolina and Louisville this season, but they are an extremely inefficient team in scoring around the basket and at the line. It’s unclear why CBS’ Clark Kellogg predicted an LSU upset over Villanova; let’s not get carried away here.
Villanova Dominated the Big East From Start to Finish This Season (USA Today Images)
Georgetown, #4 seed, South region. While quite surprising to see the Hoyas move up to a #4 seed following their recent struggles, the bigger issue here is their draw. Eastern Washington is third in the country in PPG (80.8) and is led by sophomore guard Tyler Harvey, who also leads the nation in points per game (22.9). Additionally, the Eagles take good care of the ball, potentially cutting out a source of points for Georgetown’s sometimes-sputtering offense. The biggest upside is that Eastern Washington is a very small team that doesn’t rebound the ball very well, so look for the Hoyas and Josh Smith to dominate the glass inside. To keep up with what will likely be a fast-paced game, the Hoyas will need to put some points on the board in this one.
Butler #6 seed, Midwest region. After losing to Xavier in the Big East Tournament, the Bulldogs arguably slipped a seed line and now find themselves as a #6 seed in the Midwest Region. The seed itself isn’t the problem, it’s the matchup against #11 seed Texas that is. Texas has a massive front line and plays tremendous interior post defense, ranking first nationally in two-point field goal defense and block percentage. This suits the Longhorns well in the game considering Butler, while strong defensively on its own, isn’t particularly big and struggles to score inside the arc. Yes, Butler beat an equally long and bouncy North Carolina team earlier this season, but it’s going to take a similar kind of rebounding effort to knock off the Longhorns. Although not a favorable draw by any means, the Bulldogs have proven capable.
Providence, #6 seed, East region. The Friars will await the winner of the Boise State – Dayton game (taking place in Dayton), but neither team should be a particular threat to the Friars. Both teams play at a slow tempo and sport 25-8 records, but their offensive styles are dramatically different. Dayton has a highly balanced attack, whereas Boise’s Derrick Marks (19.3 PPG) shoulders the scoring load for the Broncos. The former scores a majority of its points from the line; the latter from the three-point arc. Neither team is particularly adept at defending the paint, where Providence often feasts, and all things considered, both project to struggle with Providence’s size at every position. The Friars will likely advance and face a surging Oklahoma team in the round of 32.
Xavier, #6 seed, West region. As with Providence, Xavier will have to wait until Tuesday night to find out which of Ole Miss and BYU it will face. Both are incredibly strong offensive teams, but Ole Miss is better suited to handle Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds in the post. Either way, this game will likely come down to Xavier’s ability to defend its opponents, and its recently implemented zone was highly effective against both Butler and Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. All things considered, Xavier received an extremely favorable seed here and its result will depend on which Musketeers’ team shows up. If Remy Abell and Dee Davis are making shots and Stainbrook is able to establish a post game, the Musketeers should advance for an intriguing round of 32 matchup against Baylor.
St. John’s, #9 seed, South region. The Chris Obekpa suspension really changes things here, but it won’t change much against San Diego State. While large in size, the Aztecs are horrendous on the offensive end of the floor and rely solely on their defense, which allows just 53.1 points per game, to carry them through. St. John’s, on the other hand, likes to push the tempo and put points on the board at the expense of allowing points on the other end. This will be a purely offensive vs. defensive strengths type of game, and since the Johnnies will be going small, a lot will rest on whether they can knock down some outside shots. Expect a tightly contested game, and should St. John’s win, the Red Storm would get a rematch against a Duke squad it nearly beat in late January.
Villanova grad, patiently waiting another 10 years for season tickets. Follow Justin on twitter @JustinKundrat or email him at justin.kundrat@gmail.com
