Notre Dame Looks for History Against North Carolina
Posted by Matt Patton & Brad Jenkins on March 14th, 2015Notre Dame takes on North Carolina tonight in Greensboro for its first conference championship in program history. The game tips at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. If the previous matchup — a 71-70 Irish win in Chapel Hill — was any indication, we’re due for a great game. Both teams are playing their best basketball of the season right now.
Jerian Grant needs an All-American performance for Notre Dame to beat North Carolina. (Grant Halverson, Getty Images)
Brad: In the first meeting, North Carolina held a 21-6 edge in offensive rebounds. How can the smaller Irish avoid Tar Heel domination in the paint?
Matt: I’m not sure they can. North Carolina will have an even bigger size advantage than Duke did last night. Zach Auguste has to stay out of foul trouble and the Fighting Irish will need to send all five players to the glass on every North Carolina shot. The fact is that the Tar Heels are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Notre Dame needs to take care of the ball and try to force the Tar Heels into jump shots with long rebounds. On the other end of the floor, the mismatches may swing the other way. Auguste and Bonzie Colson are both much more comfortable playing away from the basket than any of North Carolina’s bigs. They should try to spread the floor to open up the driving lanes for Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson.
Notre Dame really limited Duke’s three-point shooting Friday night. Can the Tar Heels continue their hot shooting from behind the arc?
Brad: The game plan will obviously be to attack the Irish interior, so Roy Williams hopes the Heels continue to be selective when taking shots from deep. By selective, we mean only open looks for Marcus Paige and maybe Justin Jackson. Unlikely to make 50 percent of its threes again tonight, North Carolina should probably keep its attempts in the 10-to-12 range.
Back in early January, Notre Dame prevailed in the Smith Center primarily due to its 10-of-23 shooting performance on threes. Can they repeat such accuracy when playing their third game in three days?
Matt: That’s a great question. They didn’t shoot the ball very well last night but there are plenty of shooters on the roster. I think it will depend heavily on what types of defense we see from North Carolina. If they go man-to-man, look for Grant and Jackson to try to create (with threes coming on kickouts). If the Tar Heels go to the zone, we’ll probably see a lot more ball movement (and jump shots). I think Notre Dame needs to shoot well to win, but the Irish didn’t have any trouble getting high percentage shots in the first half against Duke on Friday night.
Speaking of North Carolina’s defense, the Tar Heels zoned Louisville quite a bit in Thursday’s win. Notre Dame is a much better shooting team than the Cardinals. What defense do you expect to see from Roy Williams, and do you think it can slow down the Fighting Irish’s high-octane offense?
Brad: North Carolina played perhaps its best defense of the season in last night’s win, but Notre Dame’s drive-and-kick offense is not as good of a matchup for the Tar Heels as Virginia’s screening/motion offense was. So, if the man-to-man is getting burned, I would expect some zone looks that try to limit penetration. It’s hard to make major adjustments to your systems with such limited preparation time, so North Carolina’s propensity to allow a lot of three-point shots may mean they have to hope the Irish are having an off night from deep.
This will be Notre Dame’s first appearance in a conference tournament title game under Mike Brey. Do they really have what it takes to handle the pressure of trying to beat another blue blood program deep in the heart of ACC country?
Matt: I think that this is the best team Mike Brey has ever coached. That said, I also think North Carolina has played its best basketball of the season over the last couple of games and the crowd is going to be heavily favoring the Tar Heels. There’s also the fact that Notre Dame plays a pretty limited rotation. That aspect could very well affect their legs and put the scales even more in North Carolina’s favor. Jerian Grant is the key tonight. He’s had a relatively quiet tournament so far, but when the going gets tough look for him to take over. How Grant plays is the (really obvious) X-factor.
Do you expect any fatigue from North Carolina from having to play four games in as many days?
Brad: The one to watch here is Marcus Paige. Now pain-free, he has been playing with the same quickness and confidence that he had last year, making North Carolina better on both ends of the floor. And while Roy Williams has used his bench enough over the three previous days to keep most of his players relatively fresh, the exception to that has been Paige. The Tar Heels’ leader has logged a lot of tough minutes so far this week. If he still looks bouncy tonight, it will probably be enough to lift his teammates through the fatigue barrier.
