As we approach Selection Sunday — and, yes, it is now a mere 33 days away — two ends of the spectrum dominate the college basketball conversation. One of those is the bubble. The other, of course, is the top line. And while it’s a bit too early to paint a decipherable picture of those teams vying for positions in the play-in games, the competition for the four No. 1 seeds is beginning to take shape. There appear to be three solid bets. Kentucky is near-lock. Virginia, with only one loss — a good loss, mind you — and a handful of impressive wins, is another. And Gonzaga, despite a relatively weak conference slate, is a third. Even if the Zags were to suffer one more defeat along the way, they might still be safe in a position on the top line. The fourth spot, however, is truly up for grabs. On the back of a splendid array of wins away from home, Duke would appear to be the front-runner. But Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona and Villanova aren’t too far behind the Blue Devils. If the Badgers run the table the rest of the way — a real possibility — they’d make the committee’s job on this decision excruciating. Villanova could also cause a few headaches if they enter the discussion as a two-loss team. And Kansas, with its top-ranked schedule and plethora of top-50 wins, could close the season at No. 1 in the RPI. The pressure is on at the top. We’ll see which teams can handle it.

Gonzaga Continues to Roll Along to a Likely #1 Seed (USA Today Images)

Road Warrior Week

This week isn’t overflowing with marquee matchups, so we’ll forgo Three for the Money in favor of a more general theme. It’s road warrior week. Duke got things started on Monday night when it went to Florida State and escaped with a narrow victory in Tallahassee. Some other top-10 teams this week might not be so fortunate, as eight of those — including the Blue Devils — will play on the road at an unranked team between Monday and Friday. It starts on Tuesday night when Kentucky travels to LSU; Notre Dame makes the long trek to Clemson; Kansas plays at Texas Tech; and Wisconsin heads to Nebraska. Kentucky perhaps faces the stiffest test of all. LSU, an up-tempo squad with a big and physical front line, will try to get out in transition and score before Kentucky can set up its suffocating half-court defense. Notre Dame, however, is the most likely of the four to lose. The Fighting Irish are only three-point favorites against the Tigers, a hard-luck team that has lost a bunch of close games this year. Wisconsin revisits the site of last year’s memorable Cornhuskers upset on ‘no-sit Sunday.’

Road warrior week continues on Wednesday night, when two more top-seed contenders are in action. Virginia will be in Raleigh to take on NC State — one ACC giant has already been toppled by the Wolfpack this season, but the Cavaliers will try to avoid a similar fate. Meanwhile, Villanova will travel to Providence. The Friars have quietly ascended to a #6 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, and a win here would pull them within a half-game of Villanova for the lead in the Big East. Finally, Arizona will commences a Pacific Northwest swing at Washington on Friday night. The Huskies have fallen off a cliff since the new year began but will be hungry for an upset after seeing what Arizona State did to its rival last weekend. So of the eight, how many will actually lose this week? Surely at least one. Notre Dame has looked vulnerable lately, especially on the road; and Villanova has shown that it isn’t immune to Big East upsets. Even Wisconsin and Virginia should be in for fistfights. If I had to guess, I’ll say two of this group goes down. And while I’m at it, I’ll choose to put Villanova on upset alert.

Crunch Time For…

Kevin Ollie Really Needs Two Wins This Week (USAT)

• Kansas State – The Wildcats have a really weird résumé. They’ve claimed three quality wins over NCAA Tournament certainties and have beaten fellow bubble teams Purdue and Texas A&M. They’ve also only lost to Arizona by the narrow margin of four points. But they’ve suffered a few mind-boggling losses as well and, as a result, currently sit with a mediocre 12-12 overall record (4-5 in the Big 12). Bruce Weber’s team has two massive opportunities to improve on that this week: at West Virginia and at home against Oklahoma. Winning at least one of those two is imperative.
• NC State – Since shocking Duke a month ago, the Wolfpack have been in a relative free fall. They’ve lost five of seven games, and amazingly haven’t won consecutive outings since early December. That streak probably won’t get snapped this week either, as Virginia and Louisville are on the docket. Like Kansas State above, though, NC State absolutely must get one of those potentially huge wins to keep hope alive.
• San Diego State – The Mountain West is starting to get interesting. Seven teams are within two games of the top the league, and of that group, only Boise State has come out of its last two games unscathed. This is still the Aztecs’ race to lose, but a big week is ahead for San Diego State. Steve Fisher’s crew (8-3) welcomes both Wyoming (8-3) and Colorado State (7-4) to Viejas Arena with a chance to seize control of the conference race.
• UConn – Less than a year after cutting down the nets in Arlington, the Huskies find themselves right now on the outside looking in. This week presents Kevin Ollie’s bunch with the AAC’s top two teams — Tulsa on Thursday followed by SMU (and College Gameday) on Saturday. It’s time for UConn to make its move, or else…
• Ole Miss – The Rebels are rolling, as five straight wins have vaulted them into the KenPom top 30. So why is it crunch time for Andy Kennedy’s group? Because Ole Miss is still playing catch-up. A poor non-conference start to the season and a less-than-imposing schedule dug the Rebels a hole that they’re still digging out of. They don’t necessarily have to win both of this week’s games — at Florida on Thursday; vs. Arkansas on Saturday — but they need to take at least one of these to maintain their bubble momentum.

Other Games to Watch

• Indiana at Maryland, Wednesday – The Terps are reeling, and Indiana couldn’t miss a shot the last time these two teams met.
• Stanford at Utah, Thursday – The Utes shouldn’t lose this game at home, but the Cardinal are the third-best team in the Pac-12.
• Baylor at Kansas, Saturday – Probably the headliner of an solid-but-not-great Saturday slate.
• West Virginia at Iowa State, Saturday – The loser here could fall three games behind Kansas in the Big 12 loss column.
• VCU at George Washington, Saturday – VCU needs to redefine itself in the post-Briante Weber era.
• Villanova at Butler, Saturday – Another grueling week in the Big East for Villanova is capped off by a trip to Hinkle, where home team Butler has crept into the AP’s  top 20.
• Duke at Syracuse, Saturday – If nothing else, this game should conjure up memories of last season’s pair of instant classics.

Henry Bushnell (39 Posts)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 10th, 2015 at 2:45 pm by Henry Bushnell and is filed under Regular Features, weekly primer. Tagged: arizona, duke, feature, gonzaga, kentucky, nc state, ncaa tournament, seeding, uconn, villanova, virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.