Kansas’ Frontcourt Management Remains a Concern
Posted by Brian Goodman on January 30th, 2015Last weekend’s win at Texas gave Kansas some daylight in the Big 12 standings, and, as I discussed on Monday, that little bit of separation may be all it needs to bring home an 11th straight Big 12 title. While the Jayhawks still have three games remaining against what are currently their two closest challengers (West Virginia and Iowa State), they are the clear favorite now that they have built a one-game lead. Expectations in Lawrence, however, don’t end with winning the conference; a deep run in the NCAA Tournament is part of the deal, too. Despite Kansas’ talented rotation and clear improvement over the last few weeks, there’s reason to be concerned with how Bill Self has handled his frontcourt and its ultimate impact on the Jayhawks’ long-term ceiling.
Bill Self’s Frontcourt Rotations Have Been Curious (USA Today Images)
That questionable management reared its ugly head in Wednesday’s 64-61 victory over TCU. The game started favorably for Kansas. Sensing a mismatch in the post, Kansas called Perry Ellis‘ number and the junior delivered on the team’s first two possessions, scoring the Jayhawks’ first five points. When Ellis quickly picked up two personal fouls within the game’s first two minutes, though, Self pulled his second-leading scorer and leading rebounder for the rest of the half. The move was confounding not only because Ellis entered the game averaging 16.3 points per contest over his last three outings, but also because he’s been by far the least foul-prone of Kansas’ four regular big men this season, according to KenPom’s data.
Perhaps Self’s cautiousness came from the knowledge that his team was facing an opponent that draws more than its fair share of fouls. The Horned Frogs lead the Big 12 in free throw rate and are fourth in the metric nationally, but the trouble with Self allowing that to affect his substitution patterns is that TCU does a terrible job of capitalizing on those chances. Trent Johnson’s team ranks last in the Big 12 in free throw shooting at a paltry 58.3 percent, and TCU came into the game with a 1-5 conference record. In other words, sitting a player for two fouls in the first half wasn’t as likely to impact the team’s chances of beating the Horned Frogs as much as it would against other teams.
While Ellis rode the pine, Self utilized a frontcourt rotation that was more reminiscent of a December non-conference matchup than a road game against perhaps the most improved team in the Big 12. Landen Lucas entered the game and admirably scored six straight points at one point, but he wasn’t a factor otherwise despite playing 24 minutes (the most of any Kansas forward). As the Horned Frogs chipped away at a 13-point deficit, Ellis remained on the bench and TCU attacked the offensive glass with abandon on its way to outscoring Kansas 27-8 on second-chance points. It wasn’t all bad, as Cliff Alexander provided his usual energy and effectiveness, but when Self was so hesitant to reinsert Ellis that he instead opted to play seldom-used center Hunter Mickelson for seven minutes, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Horned Frogs kept it close, entering halftime trailing by just six.
In the second half, Kansas again put some distance between itself and TCU, but sloppy play down the stretch gave the Horned Frogs a chance as the game wound down. Following a bricked free throw by Frank Mason with fewer than five seconds remaining, Charles Hill’s desperation heave from 35 feet missed its target and Kansas escaped. The Jayhawks moved one win closer to capturing another Big 12 title, but with all due respect to TCU, this was a much closer game than it needed to be. Just as Self did during the Iowa State game two weeks ago, he actively reduced his team’s chance to win by refusing to let his best players play through mistakes. In Hilton Coliseum, the decision arguably cost the Jayhawks a win, and it nearly did once again in Fort Worth.
There’s a lot to like about Self. You can’t argue with his overall track record in the face of sky-high expectations, the way he comports himself with media or the way he’s able to consistently attract some of the best players in the country despite deploying a relatively balanced offensive system. At the same time, he’s not above criticism. It’s also fair to say that there are times when his coaching tendencies don’t give his team its absolute best chance to win. Self isn’t the only coach who is conservatively apprehensive when it comes to foul trouble, but if he continues to manage his frontcourt the same way for the rest of the season, Kansas fans could be left to wonder what might have been if he had simply rolled the dice and trusted his big men a bit more often.
Brian Goodman a Big 12 microsite writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.
How long have you been covering KU/Big 12 basketball? Are you unaware that Bill Self ALWAYS sits players with 2 fouls in the first half? The man has averaged nearly 30 wins per season over the last 11 years and won 10 consecutive conference championships so it seems a tad presumptuous to conclude that he doesn’t know what he is doing in his substitution patterns.
Just because he does it and has been able to win in spite of it doesn’t mean it’s an optimal strategy.
Just because he didn’t do it and the game was close doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision. Drawing any conclusion about how things would have transpired if he hadn’t sat Ellis is a fallacy of logic. It is called “hypothesis contrary to fact.”
Furthermore, coach Self has to deal with the practical reality of in-game decisions. If he leaves Ellis in the game and is wrong, Ellis picks up a third foul (at a minimum) and is far less useful for the rest of the game whether he fouls out or not. By sitting him, he has that player for the entire second half and more than half of his foul allotment intact. You may disagree with that approach, but you have to concede that his success speaks for itself and his approach has worked just fine for him.
I didn’t say anything definitive about how the game would have played out if Ellis were allowed to continue to play; I merely speculated, using data, that it would have turned out for the better.
If you think about it in the macro, by sitting Ellis for such a long time, Self is, in effect, realizing the very situation he’s looking to avoid (a foul-out). Additionally, in this game specifically, Ellis fouled out anyway.
Lastly, I did concede the point that Self has been hugely successful; it’s right there in the article. I stand by my point, however. We’ll see how it plays out.
Brian,
I don’t believe you listened to Self’s postgame comments, otherwise you’d have more insight than speculation. Self told the media that he wanted to put Perry back in, but the lead grew and was maintained with him on the bench so he saw no need to change things up because he liked how the guys on the floor played. He debated putting Perry back out there for the final 4 minutes of the half, but opted not to and used Hunter as you mention. Both played well despite being rarely used lately and Self praised Landen’s hustle and contributions beyond the scoring column.
Yes, Self is quick to sit a guy with a second foul, and always has been while at KU. It certainly can hurt at times when players sit for that long and come back out rusty, but neither were particularly smart fouls on Perry’s part and so that probably also contributed to not rushing to get him back out there in the first half. Self loves to use the bench as a penalty for when his guys aren’t playing aggressive or smart, something that is common knowledge. Couple that with the way KU aggressively hedges ball screens and it was a recipe for a third foul in the first half, neutralizing Perry more than it already did. Perry did wind up fouling out, but was able to play most of the second half, something we don’t know would have happened had he picked up a third foul in the first half. I get the feeling based on how he played, Perry would have come out in the second half and picked up a cheap fourth foul quickly, at which point he would have had to sit anyway.
You also referenced the ISU game where Self sat Cliff and argue that the move potentially prevented KU from winning that game, but you ignore that Cliff was consistently beat on the glass and down the court so he was doing as much or more harm out there as he was sitting on the bench. Again, Self loves to use the bench as a motivator and it has proven to be effective as both Perry and Cliff rebounded after their “punishments” and played well in the games following.
I’m not trying to be a homer here, but Self isn’t winning in spite of his coaching. He routinely is named among the top coaches for his in-game strategy and preparation so perhaps there is a method to the madness here.