Big 12 Season Preview: Kansas Jayhawks
Posted by Brian Goodman on November 14th, 2014Throughout the preseason, the Big 12 microsite will preview each of the league’s 10 teams, from worst to first. Today: Kansas.
Kansas
Strengths: Coaching and talent. It sounds simple, but when you’ve won 10 straight conference titles, why complicate things? Consider this: Last season, the Jayhawks won the Big 12 by two games and had two of the top three picks in the NBA Draft, yet the season was considered by many to be the most disappointing of Bill Self‘s tenure (and not just because of the early NCAA Tournament flameout to Stanford, though that certainly had a lot to do with it). That’s a major testament to Self’s ability to coach and develop talent, but it also speaks to the annual expectation his track record breeds. The Jayhawks reload yet again, with Kelly Oubre replacing Andrew Wiggins on the wing and Cliff Alexander taking Joel Embiid’s spot down low. Wayne Selden is back with a healthy knee and Perry Ellis is a reliable stalwart in the post. Add a high-ceiling wild card in Svi Mykhaliuk, who Self says is sometimes the best player on the floor in practice, and you’re looking at yet another Kansas team that will be expected to win the Big 12 and, come March, should be among the smartest picks to make a run to Indianapolis.
The Cliff Alexander hype train is already leaving the station. (Rich Sugg/The Kansas City Star)
Weaknesses: The Jayhawks have enjoyed tremendous success since Sherron Collins left the program in 2010, but ask fans and people close the program and they’ll tell you they’d feel even better if their team had steady play at the point guard spot. It’s definitely not for a lack of trying, though. Since Collins’ departure, the Jayhawks have been connected in various degrees to several of the top floor generals available, including Emmanuel Mudiay, Tyus Jones, Mark Lyons, Gabe York and Cat Barber. For assorted reasons, though, all of them found other landing spots, leaving Kansas to make do with a group of which each had their share of moments and headaches — Josh Selby, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe. The Jayhawks have proven that they can succeed in spite of the point guard issue, but that doesn’t mean it’s a preferable position. Additionally, Kansas needs to rebound from a pedestrian defensive showing (by their standards). The Jayhawks finished last season with their worst defensive efficiency ranking of the KenPom era (#31), due to a combination of a brutal schedule, inexperience, injuries and uncharacteristically poor backcourt defense. This year’s non-conference schedule isn’t less daunting nor is this year’s team significantly more experienced (if at all), but on the other hand, it’s tough to imagine a Self team letting him down on the defensive end for a second straight year. Still, Kansas will have to quiet those concerns if it is to live up to its potential.
Toughest Non-Conference Stretch: Kansas’ showdown against #1 Kentucky on Tuesday night at the Champions Classic is the game everyone has circled on their calendar, but since it’s sandwiched by expected cakewalks against UC Santa Barbara and Rider, it doesn’t quite fit the bill here. During Feast Week, the Jayhawks will meet Rhode Island in the Orlando Classic and await Santa Clara or Tennessee in the semifinals before a game against (most likely) Michigan State or Marquette. Those will be competitive battles and take place away from arguably the best home-court advantage in the country, but are they the toughest on the slate? Let’s keep going. If you’re looking for an imposing stretch of “guaranteed” games, look just a bit further down the schedule to December 5-13. Self’s team will host Florida, play Georgetown in Washington, D.C., and square off against a highly competitive Utah team in Kansas City over a span of nine days. We’re going to learn a lot about Kansas during that particular stretch.
Toughest Conference Stretch: Texas, Oklahoma and Iowa State were picked to finish just behind Kansas in the Big 12 standings, and the Jayhawks will play all three teams in a stretch of eight days. On January 17, they’ll venture into Hilton Coliseum, one of the most hostile atmospheres in the college basketball. Then they will have just two days to prepare for the Sooners at home. The following Saturday, they’ll travel to the Frank Erwin Center in Austin for what could be one of the most important games of the conference season.
Projected Starting Lineup: There’s a lot of fluidity to this year’s starting lineup as Self is still trying to find the right fit, so the following lineup is more of a guess of what we’ll see come December and onward than what we’ll see for opening night.
- G: Devonte’ Graham (Fr., 6’2″, 175 lbs.)
- G: Wayne Selden (So., 29.2 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 32.8% 3FG, 53% 2FG in 2013-14 season)
- G/F: Kelly Oubre (Fr., 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.1 SPG with Findlay Prep)
- F: Perry Ellis (Jr., 123.6 ORtg, 27.8 MPG, 13.5 PPG, 54.9% FG in 2013-14 season)
- F: Cliff Alexander (Fr., 13.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.2 BPG with Curie High School)
Ellis will carry the frontcourt scoring load while Oubre and Selden have exciting potential as complementary options. Media and scouts are fawning over Alexander, and with good reason. He’s already a very good rebounder who can convert close looks and appears ready to become the next great Kansas big man. While there isn’t a clear front-runner yet at the point guard spot, Graham’s pass-first approach seems like a better fit than Mason, who is more of a scoring option that can fill in as a distributor when necessary.
Late addition Devonte’ Graham will look to correct a longstanding Jayhawk weakness. (Denny Medley/USA Today Sports)
Key Reserves:
- G: Frank Mason (So., 16.1 MPG, 5.5 PPG, 2.1 APG)
- G: Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Fr., 6’8″, 195 lbs.)
- F: Brannen Greene (So., 6″7, 215 lbs., 6.5 MPG, 2.4 PPG)
- F: Jamari Traylor (Jr., 6’8″, 220 lbs., 16.1 MPG, 4.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
- C: Hunter Mickelson (Jr., 6’10”, 245 lbs., 16.6 MPG, 5.2 MPG, 1.7 BPG over two seasons at Arkansas)
There’s a ton of frontcourt depth here, and that’s without including 6’10” 240-pound sophomore Landen Lucas. Greene and Traylor are already familiar with Self’s system, while the 6’10” Mickelson was one of the nation’s best shot-blockers in limited time in Fayetteville. In the backcourt, we’ve talked a lot about the impact of Conner Frankamp’s transfer, but it could be a blessing in disguise if it clears a path for Mykhailiuk to get the reps needed to develop into a steady scorer and defender. Don’t be surprised to see the Ukranian play starter’s minutes come January.
If Everything Goes Right: Mason or Graham emerges to bring a steady hand to the point while the other fills in adequately. With a fully-healed knee, Selden is more aggressive but also keeps defenders on their toes by improving on last season’s 32.8 percent shooting clip from distance. Although Oubre doesn’t match Wiggins’ explosiveness, he displays advanced athleticism and surprises with his ability to find the open man when defenses collapse. Alexander and Mickelson make finishing at the rim impossible for attackers around the league like Marcus Foster, Bryce Dejean-Jones and Juwan Staten, and hold their own against inside threats in Cameron Ridley and Georges Niang. Even in a best-case scenario, the Jayhawks take a few early-season lumps as they gel, but they’ll get the big payoff with their 11th straight Big 12 regular season title and Final Four buzz heading into Selection Sunday.
If Everything Goes Wrong: I don’t subscribe to the belief that non-conference scheduling has an effect on how a team plays in February and March, but another intense November/December calendar could cost Kansas some key resume wins. Alexander will be able to bully his way to the hoop against undersized competition, but there’s a question as to how long it will take for things to click for him against bigger bodies. The default mindset is to trust in Self until someone else takes the conference crown, and he’s surely earned that benefit of the doubt; but if Alexander and Mykhailiuk are slow to get acclimated to the rigors of high-major competition and point guard play is a source of stress once again, would it be that hard to picture Kansas losing its grip on the Big 12 race?
Brian Goodman a Big 12 microsite writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.
