College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings a few days ago. These ratings are not your standard preseason website or magazine predictions because they are completely data-driven. To put it simply, Pomeroy is more than likely a great deal smarter than you or me. His tempo-free statistics remove some of the spin and fluff of the season in favor of measurable aspects like efficiency, schedule strength and luck. Uninformed pundits may talk about a team being great defensively because it gives up a very low number of points per game, but it’s wise to also evaluate the same notion through the prism of points per 100 possessions. That team may be great defensively as a matter of fact, but it also might just play at a really slow pace with fewer possessions (and hence, fewer opportunities for the opponent to score). Here are some observations about how the Big Ten fared in Pomeroy’s first list of ratings.

Tom Crean’s Indiana squad starts the season just outside top 25 according to Ken Pomeroy. (AP).

• Indiana Rates More Favorably Here Than With the Media. Pomeroy thinks that the Indiana offense will be much better after it finished 2013-14 ranked 127th in offensive efficiency. He also believes that the Hoosiers’ pace will quicken, from 106.5 points per 100 possessions to 110.9. For this to happen, the Hoosiers will have to cut down on their turnovers. They ranked last in the league in that metric last season, turning the ball over on 21.8 percent of the time. With Yogi Ferrell now having more help on the wings with freshman James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson coming into the program along with transfer Nick Zeisloft, Pomeroy thinks Tom Crean’s unit will be a good deal more efficient on the offensive end. The media picked Indiana ninth in its preseason poll, so it looks as though Pomeroy’s model values the Hoosiers a bit higher than the eye test.

• Wisconsin and Iowa Will be Better Defensively. Pomeroy expects the Badgers to improve from having the 49th best defense to the 11th, while he expects Iowa to make an even bigger jump on the defensive end — he rates the Hawkeyes’ improvement as going from 120th to 49th. Wisconsin could feature a bigger lineup this season if Bo Ryan decides to put Nigel Hayes in the starting lineup to replace Ben Brust. While Brust did a tremendous job on the glass for a small guard (12.7% defensive rebound rate compared to Hayes’ 12.9%), Hayes offers much more size. At 6’7″ and 250 pounds, he’ll be able to give the Badgers someone else to bang down low with opposing post players. Iowa’s lapses defensively ultimately ruined a positive start to their season, but with the core they have coming back in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes should be better. They have two rim protectors in Gabriel Olaseni and Adam Woodbury, and Peter Jok looks like he has the tools to become a lockdown wing defender.
• The League Lacks Top End Talent, But It Will be Deep. This was covered briefly in today’s M5 post, but the major takeaway from these opening ratings is just how close Pomeroy has the middle-of-the-pack teams listed. Teams #6-#10 (Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Illinois) are ranked #32, #33, #34, #37, and #38, respectively, on the national level. There are 12 B1G teams among the top 56. Compare this with the other power conferences, and you’ll see that there are eight in the top 56 from the Big 12, seven from the ACC, five from the Pac-12, Big East, and AAC, and four from the SEC. There are more teams in the top 20 from the ACC and the Big 12, but if you want to settle the best conference in the land argument by citing conference depth, then the Big Ten has it in spades. It’s thought by many that the league this season is mostly guesswork in trying to figure out who will finish in spots #2-#11 in the standings, and the KenPom numbers seems to back up this generally-accepted opinion.

Brendan Brody (307 Posts)

Brendan Brody is in his fourth season covering the Big Ten for RTC. Email him at brendan.brody@gmail.com, or follow him on twitter @berndon4.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 29th, 2014 at 2:41 pm by Brendan Brody and is filed under big ten, microsites. Tagged: Adam Woodbury, feature, Gabriel Olaseni, indiana, iowa, Nigel Hayes, peter jok, tom crean, wisconsin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.