Buy, Sell, or Hold: Big Ten Stock Analysis
Posted by Brendan Brody on January 8th, 2014CBS studio analyst and SI.com columnist Seth Davis wrote his annual article on Monday treating 63 teams as though they were stock market commodities. He gave each squad a designation where he chose to either buy, sell, or hold the stock of each team. When buying, it means that the team may be struggling right now, or struggled at some point recently, but he thinks it has a chance to play much better going forward. When holding, it means he thinks the team is likely to stay where they are, or that he’s unsure about what they will do going forward. When selling, it means that the team appears to have hit its ceiling and can only get worse, or that it doesn’t have much of a chance in his eyes. For example, Wisconsin and Indiana are both in his sell category, but for different reasons. Most of Davis’ takes involving Big Ten teams are spot on, but here’s how each of the eight B1G teams were listed, followed by a few takes about teams that could be classified differently.
Nik Stauskas will play a major role as Michigan attempts to prove to people that they can thrive without Mitch McGary (USA TODAY Sports)
Seth Davis’ Selections
Buy: Michigan State
Hold: Illinois, Minnesota
Sell: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
RTC Big Ten Microsite Changes
Michigan: (from Sell to Buy). Everyone has written off Michigan with Mitch McGary’s back injury, but Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan have stepped in and done a nice job in his absence. Davis mainly talks about how brutal the Michigan schedule looks, but 10 or more conference wins is still a real possibility. The win at Minnesota last week already helps quite a bit, and they could very well start 4-0 in the league before they go to Wisconsin on January 18. The stock on Michigan has been low since the team’s early struggles, and it plummeted to great depths when the McGary news broke. But there is still too much talent on this roster to believe that John Beilein’s team can’t finish in the top four of the conference. This could definitely be a value buy if you get the Wolverines now.
Minnesota: (from Hold to Sell). Minnesota has slightly exceeded expectations so far, and the Gophers could still be looking at a 2-5 start in conference play even if they beat Penn State tonight. They travel to Michigan State and Iowa, and have home games against Wisconsin and Ohio State all in the next two weeks. Right now things are looking good for the Gophers in terms of NCAA Tournament status, but this could very well change if they don’t knock off at least one of those four teams. They could win as many as a couple of these and see their stock rise, but right now selling out before their stock drops seems to be the right call.
Wisconsin: (from Sell to Hold). Some might argue that Wisconsin’s stock cannot get any higher than it is right now. They are No. 4 in the AP poll with wins over Florida, St. Louis, Iowa, Virginia, St.John’s, West Virginia and Marquette. Davis contends that some of these wins aren’t as great as they originally looked, especially the win over the a Gators team missing Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith. Wait and see how B1G play starts to work itself out before you bail on these Badgers, however. Bo Ryan’s team deserves the benefit of the doubt. Despite not playing great against Iowa, the Badgers were able to come back and make plays down the stretch to get the win. They will face Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan at home in their next seven games, so we recommend seeing how those games go before bailing on the Badgers.
Brendan Brody is in his fourth season covering the Big Ten for RTC. Email him at brendan.brody@gmail.com, or follow him on twitter @berndon4.
