The Paths of the ACC in the Big Dance
Posted by KCarpenter on March 13th, 2012On Selection Sunday, the brackets were revealed and five different ACC teams found themselves dancing. Poor Miami didn’t make the cut, but when all you have to point to is a win against Duke and Florida State, it’s hard to fault the committee for taking a pass. (Remember last year when Virginia Tech had a Duke win and two Florida State wins and didn’t make it? Seth Greenberg does.) In any case, five teams made the cut and have been matched-up and seeded. We’ll have more in-depth analysis of each of the games, but for now, I just want to take a minute and have a quick look at how the placement of each of the ACC teams affects the chances at a good run in the tournament.
North Carolina (#1 seed in the Midwest)
The Tar Heels don’t have a lot to complain about. Sneaking into position for the third top seed behind Kentucky and Syracuse, North Carolina is strongly positioned for a good run in the tournament. The top half of the Midwest is relatively weak, and UNC’s only reason for complaint has to do with the #2 seed. Kansas is the top #2 seed and if they meet North Carolina in St. Louis, there should be a distinct Jayhawk crowd advantage. By the overall seeding chart, North Carolina should have had Duke as the #2 seed in its region. Of course, since the committee seeks to avoid regions with the top two seeds in the same conference, the two seeds got shuffled around. Potential intrigue on the path to the Final Four? Creighton at the #8 seed sets up the Ames Bowl, where Harrison Barnes would get to face his high school teammate Doug McDermott, who has been having one of the best seasons in college basketball. Meanwhile, the presence of Georgetown, Michigan, and, of course, Kansas summons memories of past tournament showdowns: each of these teams was the runner-up from each of UNC’s first three national championships. The Kansas match-up also would give us plenty of reason to re-run this amusing clip (not that we need any additional reason to watch it again).
Roy Won't Be Smiling If He Has To Face Kansas In Saint Louis
Duke (#2 seed in the South)
All in all, I think Duke made out fairly well. Sure, they got stuck in the same region as Kentucky on the 20th anniversary of “The Shot”, but honestly, the championship runs through the Wildcats. If you want to win it all, you will probably have to beat Kentucky. The rest of the region is significantly less impressive. Baylor, Indiana, and Wichita State have all shown signs of weakness, faltering down the stretch. All of these teams are capable of great things, but it’s hard to expect consistent quality out of any of them. The team that stands out as maybe the most dangerous is UNLV. The Rebels have also had their troubles during the course of the season, but they have an element of danger and unpredictability that makes me think that they could offer some nasty surprises for their opponent. It’s reasonable to predict Duke to make the Elite Eight and if the Blue Devils can make it past Kentucky, the rest of their tournament will be a breeze. It sounds so easy when I say it like that, doesn’t it?
Florida State (#3 seed in the East)
Lots of people love Florida State’s path right now. Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, and Luke Winn have all bandied about the idea of the Seminoles making the Final Four and it’s easy to be excited about a team that knocked off Duke and North Carolina twice already this year. Unless you really don’t trust Michigan State, Syracuse is clearly the weakest #1 seed (despite their second overall seeding) and the East seems to be the most likely home of a dark horse Final Four candidate. Still, I think people are forgetting about Ohio State far quickly. The Buckeyes remain in second place in just about every major stat-driven power rankings, while the committee instead placed Ohio State as the seventh overall seed. Who do you trust more: Ken Pomeroy, Jeff Sagarin, and Dean Oliver or the NCAA selection committee? Ohio State really is pretty good, and the Seminoles would have to get by the Buckeyes to get to the Elite Eight. Perhaps just as tough, Cincinnati looms in the third round, a team that can get hot and make threes against the best of them. I like Florida State a lot, but penciling them in for the Final Four seems premature to me.
Virginia (#10 seed in the West)
The Cavaliers hang their hat on defense and have been excellent in three-point defense all season. But, against Florida (which was perhaps severely underseeded), this defense will be tested. No tournament team gets a higher percentage of its points from three than Florida. It’s a hell of a first game, and is easily the toughest first game for all the ACC teams in the tournament. It doesn’t get much easier. Virginia has a very tough path on the same side of the bracket as very good Marquette and Missouri teams. If you trust in Ken Pomeroy, the region is loaded. Eight of the top twenty teams ranked by Ken Pomeroy play in the West. In addition to the teams already mentioned, Michigan State, Memphis, St. Louis, New Mexico, and Louisville all stand between Virginia and the Final Four. Good luck to the Cavaliers, they are going to need it more than others.
North Carolina State (#11 seed in the Midwest)
For a team that’s probably going to be up against better seeds for every game they play in the tournament, the Wolfpack got a pretty good initial draw. In their first match against San Diego State, NC State faces an incredibly weak #6 seed. Despite the big difference in seed, NC State is nearly universally favored in their first game. Beyond that, however, things get trickier: the probable path beyond this game calls for matches against Georgetown, Kansas, and North Carolina. That’s a tough road to travel for any team, but hey, for a team that is back in the dance for the first time in years, a good chance to at least win the first game is certainly welcome news.
