Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina rule recruiting. That might seem like an obvious statement, but Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus took the time to quantify the programs’ relative recruiting dominance and look at the specific breakdown of where the value for the schools’ classes is. The results are fascinating, and in some respects mind-blowing.

Over the past ten years, the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, and Wildcats have combined to sign 91 top 100 recruits (nearly 10 percent of every top 100 prospect available) and 28 top 10 players (nearly 30 percent). They’ve put forth all of the top six classes since 2002 and 13 of the best 19.

Don’t forget in the last ten years two of those programs have had coaching changes (Roy Williams took over for Matt Doherty in 2003; Kentucky was coached by Tubby Smith, Billy Gillispie and John Calipari over the last decade). People also criticized Mike Krzyzewski for “slipping” when he failed to land John Wall and Greg Monroe in 2008.

Harrison Barnes is a Rare Top Overall Recruit for North Carolina

However, the more nuanced numbers are even more interesting. Cannon broke down the top recruits into five ranges: 1-3, 4-10, 11-25, 26-50 and 51-100. North Carolina fills its rosters mostly with the 4-10 range while Duke utilizes the top range and a broader range of around 12-40. Cannon’s research points to potential flaws in both schools’ systems. Duke, whether actively or passively, avoids the second half of the “one-and-done” players even though many of those players end up staying around. The Tar Heels aren’t as reliant on the true top players (although Harrison Barnes certainly shows some success in the area).

Looking at Coach K specifically, I think the relative lack of success with the 4-10 range probably shows that his staff throws everything at their top prospect in terms of attention. Combining the uber-ability of a one-and-done player near the top of his class with the experience and talent of lower-ranked (but still very highly regarded) recruits is a very stable model — assuming you can land the top recruit. It’s a little surprising given Duke’s system (which promotes multiple scorers in the backcourt and on the wings) that Duke wouldn’t have as much success getting a second top prospect.

For North Carolina, the Roy Williams system is heavily reliant on top-flight point guards and athletic bigs (though an elite wing never hurts), which probably explains why the Tar Heels have a more well-rounded top part of their class. While Duke’s primary scorers (in recent years) have been backcourt players, the Tar Heels have more featured offensive positions to fill. This theoretically allows them to pursue more top recruits than the Blue Devils.

One final thing to mention is the sample size. We’re only talking about ten recruiting classes, so the secondary analysis is too small a sample size to draw a definitive conclusion. In general statistics shouldn’t make conclusions; rather they should confirm or point out potential conclusions. Keeping this in mind, Duke is still gunning for top 2012 prospect Shabazz Muhammad and consensus top-25 prospect Tony Parker to complement top-20 signee Raseed Sulaimon. North Carolina looks to have a more pedestrian class lined up for 2012 (with regards to the true top prospects; the Tar Heels still have four top-100 players committed).

mpatton (576 Posts)

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 17th, 2011 at 2:08 pm by mpatton and is filed under acc, microsites. Tagged: duke, harrison barnes, kentucky, mike krzyzewski, north carolina, rasheed suilaimon, recruiting, roy williams, shabazz muhammad, tony parker. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.