Conference Report Card – Sweet Sixteen Edition
Posted by rtmsf on March 23rd, 2010It’s the Monday after the first two rounds, so that means it’s time for conference report cards! With only eleven of the 32 BCS conference teams remaining, we have a feeling that the major conferences aren’t going to perform so well in this year’s grading. But you never know. It all depends on the individual matchups and our mood as we break out the red marker. We review the conferences with multiple bids below…
WCC (2 bids, 1 remaining, 3-1 record, expected PASE = 1.4 wins)
Obviously, any time a WCC team makes the Sweet Sixteen it’s a great year for the conference. It’s especially great this time around because #10 St. Mary’s shows that the conference has some talent and depth in its league beyond the same old Zags. With two relatively low seeds (Gonzaga was a #8), many people were expecting the league to go oh-fer in the Dance this year, but now one week later the Gaels are a popular darkhorse pick to come out of the South Region as a true F4 Cinderella.
Verdict: A. The only thing that would have made this an A+ would have been if Gonzaga had upset #1 Syracuse. Every additional win from here on out is just gravy.
Big 10 (5 bids, 3 remaining, 7-2 record, expected PASE = 7.1 wins)
The Big Ten is having a good tournament after a somewhat disappointing regular season, and every year the league does this everyone acts surprised. #2 Ohio State rolled in its two games and appears a very strong contender to get to the Final Four after Northern Iowa blew up the Midwest Region. #4 Purdue and #5 Michigan State both survived extremely close games that support the contention that the Big Ten style of play (gutting out close games) helps when it comes Tourney time. OSU and MSU are on a likely collision course to the regional finals for an all-Big Ten extravaganza, but even if nobody wins another game, the league has already reached this year’s expectations.
Verdict: A-. Minnesota wasn’t expected to do much and they didn’t, but #4 Wisconsin was upset by a vastly underrated #12 Cornell in the second round. That upset is more than compensated by Purdue’s showing against #5 Texas A&M, a game where it was clear just how much they missed Robbie Hummel yet they still found a way to win. OSU and MSU give the Big Ten the most Sweet Sixteen teams of any league this season.
Pac-10 (2 bids, 1 remaining, 3-1 record, expected PASE = 1.2 wins)
West coast bias reared its head as the two Pac-10 invitees won first round games over Big East squads to move into the next round. #11 Washington then followed that up with a pasting of #3 New Mexico, while #8 Cal was simply outclassed by Duke’s talent. The way Washington is playing right now (nine in a row), we wouldn’t automatically assume a loss to WVU in the Sweets, but regardless of that result the league has already far outperformed what most people expected this year (which was an 0-2 record).
Verdict: B+. The league was undoubtedly way, way down this year, but UW and Cal gave it back a wee bit of respectability with their showings over the weekend.
SEC (4 bids, 2 remaining, 4-2 record, expected PASE = 6.7 wins)
The SEC did a little better than we imagined it would do in putting two teams into the Sweet Sixteen, but don’t expect us to get all hot and bothered over a #6 Tennessee team that snuck by San Diego State before getting a gift-wrapped second round game against #14 Ohio U. If they can beat #2 Ohio State this weekend, only then will we be impressed. #1 Kentucky may win the required six games to exceed conference expectations all by their lonesome, but hopefully the Cats didn’t count on #4 Vanderbilt or #10 Florida to help them, as they were both first round losers. Vandy in particular losing to #13 Murray State hurts the SEC’s standing this year.
Verdict: B-. Kentucky’s dominance alone brings this league up from a C to a B for now, but the Vandy upset hurts considerably and we’re still waiting to see what Tennessee can do when facing a legitimate team.
Atlantic 10 (3 bids, 1 remaining, 2-2 record, expected PASE = 3.3 wins)
Before the Tournament started, both #5 Temple and #7 Richmond were chic picks to make a run at the regionals and beyond. Instead, they were both handled in the first round by everyone’s new favorite Cinderellas, #12 Cornell and #10 St. Mary’s. Only Xavier (who else?) is left to stick up for the conference and that’s exactly what they did, winning two games against hardnosed #11 Minnesota and #3 Pittsburgh teams to get back to the Sweets for the third consecutive time.
Verdict: C+. The two first round upsets destroyed the tournament profile of this league, but never count Xavier out in their upcoming game against Kansas State.
Big 12 (7 bids, 2 remaining, 7-5 record, expected PASE = 10.9 wins)
This league along with the Big East was considered the toughest in America this year, but after two previous years of good opening weekend showings, the Big 12 has definitely fallen off in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The conference started the first round ok, winning five of seven games with the only two losses occurring in the roughly equal 7/10 and 8/9 matchups. The second round wasn’t quite so kind. Of course, it stings when your top team and consensus national favorite #1 Kansas soils itself against a #9 seed like Northern Iowa, but #5 Texas A&M had multiple opportunities to put away #4 Purdue and didn’t prior to losing on a Chris Kramer layup. #2 Kansas State and #3 Baylor are both alive and playing well — either could make a run to the Final Four this week, which would considerably improve the ranking of this league at this time next week.
Verdict: C. If the Big 12 can get one of its two remaining teams into the Final Four, that would help counteract the Kansas disaster. Otherwise, we’re looking at a lot of mediocrity here.
ACC (6 bids, 1 remaining, 5-5 record, expected PASE = 7.5 wins)
At what point is it ok to start ripping this league for being an annual charlatan in the national picture? Putting only seven teams in the last five seasons into the Sweet Sixteen and three in the last two years is on par with the Pac-10 and SEC, not the tradition-rich ACC. It’s always been a top-heavy league, but Duke and UNC are doing all of the heavy lifting in recent years and the others are at best winning one game before bowing out. That was the case this year, as every team not named Duke were gone before Sunday evening of the first weekend again. The real disappointment has to be #4 Maryland, who many had pegged as darkhorse Final Four candidate, unable to get past a banged-up Michigan State team despite the loss of the Spartan point guard to a ruptured Achilles tendon in the first half. #7 Clemson was its annual first round disaster, #10 Florida State lost as expected, and #8 Wake Forest and #10 Georgia Tech managed to win one game before being sent home unceremoniously. Duke has a shot to go deep, though, so they could once again make the conference look better than it is when the final numbers come through.
Verdict: C. The ACC’s only impressive team was without question Duke — again. At least three other teams won first round games, but the Devils will have to make the Final Four for the league to meet expectations.
Mountain West (4 bids, 0 remaining, 2-4 record, expected PASE = 3.8 wins)
For the second straight year, the Mountain West should be ashamed of its performance. #8 UNLV and #11 San Diego State were understandable first round victims, but #3 New Mexico and #7 BYU had greater aspirations. Instead, both looked pretty bad in their second round contests against #11 Washington and #2 Kansas State, respectively. Especially the Lobos — if you want to be considered the big-time program a top four seed placement suggests, you have to play better than losing by twenty points to a Washington team that barely snuck its way into the Dance.
Verdict: C-. The only reason it’s not lower is because at least BYU and New Mexico made the second round this year. The conference won’t be taken seriously, though, until they start putting more teams into the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.
Conference USA (2 bids, 0 remaining, 0-2 record, expected PASE = 0.8 wins)
Without Memphis carrying the conference flag this year, Conference USA produced little of consequence in the first round. Little was expected, but some people thought #12 UTEP had a shot to beat #5 Butler in that game; they were wrong. #13 Houston played #4 Maryland tough, but neither team really threatened the favorites. Memo to CUSA — you may want to get Josh Pastner’s Tigers back into the Tourney sooner rather than later if you want to see some wins again.
Verdict: C-. Little was expected and little was achieved.
WAC (2 bids, 0 remaining, 0-2 record, expected PASE = 1.0 wins)
Like CUSA, the WAC didn’t have much to work with as #12 Utah State and #12 New Mexico State were facing very good teams in #5 Michigan State and#5 Texas A&M. NMSU challenged the Spartans until the end, losing by only three, but league regular season champion never could get anything going against Texas A&M.
Verdict: C-. We would have hoped that one of these two could spring an upset, but what happened to the USU Aggies? They’re better than that.
Big East (8 bids, 2 remaining, 6-6 record, expected PASE = 14.8 wins)
The Big Least was the butt of the weekend’s jokes and with good reason: the league stunk up the joint this year. After a phenomenal 2009 Tournament when the league earned 17 victories on the backs of seven teams, the conference is left after one weekend in 2010 with merely two teams despite a record eight bids this year. #3 Georgetown losing to a MAC team (Ohio) that barely made its own conference tournament was a total debacle, and #2 Villanova has to be left wondering how such a promising season could derail so quickly at the end of the year. #3 Pittsburgh and the two #6 seeds Notre Dame and Marquette at least went down fighting, but #9 Louisville appeared to have not made the trip to Jacksonville for its first round loss. Among the six wins, the highest-seeded team that a Big East squad has beaten was a #9, Gonzaga. Ugh. It will be up to the two highest seeds — #1 Syracuse and #2 West Virginia — to carry the league banner deeper in the postseason this year. The good news is that they both have the talent and ability to win several more games.
Verdict: D. D is for disappointment and there’s no getting around that description this year. If Syracuse and/or WVU make runs to the F4, they could salvage some league pride and increase the grade, but short of that, it’s been a very bad year for this league.
Honorable Mention
Obviously, the Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Ivy League (Cornell) and Horizon League (Butler) are one-bid leagues that are feeling like they’ve hit the lottery with their representative’s performance so far. Only Butler was expected to win one game and two was a stretch, but they’re all still standing. The big question is whether one of them can become the next Davidson and get to the Elite Eight or, even better, channel George Mason and make the Four. All three have a reasonable shot at it in this crazy year.
“OSU and MSU are on a likely collision course to the regional finals…”
I’m a Sparty fan and even I don’t think MSU is a lock to win anything now, especially since we’re what Izzo called a “M”A”S”H” unit”. That is to say, if MSU can somehow get over their injuries and play through the pain to beat UNI, I’ll be exremely pleased, but if UNI wins by more than 10 I certainly won’t be shocked.
Dude, you’re an idiot. You can’t be a real State fan if you think UNI can beat us what a joke.