Marquette: Will a stylistic change pay off for the Golden Eagles?

Marquette was gaining traction as a potential elite team for the upcoming season once All-America guard Markus Howard removed his name from the NBA Draft. That is, until two of the most shocking transfer decisions in recent memory grinded those premature expectations and optimism to a halt. Without the Hauser brothers returning (they have since transferred to Virginia and Michigan State), an immediate reaction was to bury Marquette. The pair were absolutely integral to the spacing and three-point shooting that made opposing defenses fear the Golden Eagles’ potent offense. As the offseason progressed, however, Marquette slowly looked more favorable and even appeared in some Top 25 polls.

Marquette could plausibly repeat last year’s performance and warrant such preseason recognition, but there is no debate that this year’s team will bear little resemblance to a lineup that was loaded with long-range threats a year ago. As a result, few teams will undergo as drastic a stylistic change in one offseason. The Golden Eagles’ identity has now pivoted toward length, athleticism, and a possible two-big lineup.

Surprisingly, head coach Steve Wojciechowski did not chase a shot-making wing or stretch power forward to replace the Hausers. They will be instead replaced with scoring combo-guard Koby McEwen and versatile forward Brendan Bailey. McEwen averaged 15.6 PPG and 3.2 APG for Utah State two seasons ago and is known for his ability to attack the basket. Bailey averaged 3.2 PPG as a freshman and will need to make a major leap. The 6’8’’ forward shot a paltry 25 percent from three-point range, but that number should increase considerably as he becomes more comfortable.

Almost as surprising as the Hauser brothers leaving was the addition of Jayce Johnson to the roster. Johnson was a starting center at Utah and turned down numerous starting opportunities to become the backup at Marquette. That is how the graduate transfer logically fits on this roster, but Wojciechowski mentioned playing the big man alongside Theo John in what would undoubtedly be a disaster with neither player scoring outside the paint. Pairing Ed Morrow with either traditional center would be more palatable, but it would still be a stark contrast from the incredible shooting and spacing Marquette enjoyed last year.

Despite all these changes, Marquette still returns the anchor of its offense in Howard and the anchor of its defense in John. Sacar Anim has excelled as a glue guy and perimeter defender and can now show his full offensive arsenal. These three veterans will raise Marquette’s floor considerably, even if its new identity flops. As long as they stay away (far away) from playing John and Johnson together and emphasize their increased length and athleticism, Marquette should plan to return to the NCAA Tournament.

Providence: Will an upgrade at point guard be enough to save Providence’s struggling offense?

Providence missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 last season despite owning a talented roster filled with several former top recruits and numerous proven Big East players. The reason was very simple — the Friars could not score. Ed Cooley‘s offense ranked 164th in KenPom (eighth-worst high-major team); it was 257th in three-point percentage, 275th in two point percentage, and even struggled to convert free throws (235th).

While it may look like shooting the ball was the Friars’ biggest issue, point guard play was the root cause of these offensive deficiencies. Providence lacked someone who could consistently create his own shot during shot-clock situations and generate easy opportunities for his teammates. Cooley rotated through all of his lead guards at one time or another, but none were able to separate themselves and consistently deliver suitable results.

David Duke made an immediate defensive impact but looked extremely uncomfortable running the team. He had trouble creating shots and fared much better when he was eventually moved off the ball. Maliek White showed flashes of being the answer at point guard, but was too inconsistent to be permanently given the reins. Makai Ashton Langford was just plain ineffective. Even Alpha Diallo’s game grew increasingly sloppy and inefficient when trying to be the team’s lead offensive creator.

No team relies on its point guard more than Providence. Per Jordan Sperber, Cooley’s lead guards have the highest assist rate in college basketball, which speaks to the enormous responsibility of being slotted in that position. Fortunately, Providence struck gold with its inaugural dive into the graduate transfer market by landing Luwane Pipkins. The dynamic guard will certainly inject offense into the lineup, but at what cost? Last year’s team had enough talent to play in a lesser postseason tournament (NIT or CBI), but instead cratered to become Massachusetts’ worst team of the KenPom era (dating back to 1997).

The hope is that Pipkins can be the missing piece to an already talented roster. If he can create open threes for AJ Reeves, ease some of the offensive burden off of Diallo, and find Nate Watson more easy opportunities around the basket, this Providence offense could flourish. When you throw in a potential breakout candidate in Duke, a possible return to form from Emmitt Holt, and a deep veteran bench, you can really see some upside. If the Friars can integrate Pipkins and maintain their stellar defense, the sky is the limit this season for Providence.

Marquette has had an up-and-down season to this point. The Golden Eagles are 17-10 (8-7 Big East) with a resume that includes nice wins over Villanova and Creighton as well as head-scratching losses to St. John’s and Georgetown. Their most glaring flaws are on the defensive end of the floor (where they rank 138th nationally, per KenPom), but their inconsistency can also be attributed to a lack of an offensive go-to option. Marquette’s top players — who, it should be noted, are clearly buying into the team concept — cannot individually match the output provided by First Team All-Big East contenders such as Josh Hart (Villanova), Marcus Foster (Creighton) or even Trevon Bluiett (Xavier). What head coach Steve Wojciechowski lacks in star power, however, he has in depth, which makes the Golden Eagles a dangerous squad to face in March.

Marquette is Going to Create Some Problems in March (USA Today Images)

Marquette currently has six players averaging between 10.1 and 12.5 points per game, five of whom stand between 5’10” and 6’6” and are virtually interchangeable in the Golden Eagles’ up-tempo, three-point happy offense. That offense is the team’s driver, ranking first nationally in three-point shooting at 41.9 percent and among the top quarter of the sport in adjusted tempo. Four of Wojchiechowski’s rotation players – Katin Reinhardt, Andrew Rowsey, Markus Howard and Sam Hauser – are shooting at least 38 percent from beyond the arc, making an average of two or more per contest. The Golden Eagles’ pronounced ability to spread the floor with multiple shooters makes them nearly impossible to guard in the half-court, but what really rounds out the Marquette offense is its anchor in the post. Senior big man Luke Fischer leads the team in player efficiency, rebounding and blocked shots, and his offensive game is as diverse as it is proficient. The 6’11” center can play with his back to the basket, possessing great touch around the rim, but he is also capable of acting as the roll man off screens. He may not be the most athletic big man in the Big East, but he makes up for it with his meticulous shot selection and skill set – Fischer currently ranks 21st nationally in effective field goal percentage.

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The small ball era has been discussed ad nauseam with case studies such as Golden State in the NBA and Villanova in college acting as manifestations of its success. But for all the talk about how effective shooter-stocked lineups are, the most under-appreciated element of the strategy is player interchangeability on defense. Villanova’s small lineups work because its wing players can effectively guard multiple positions and Jay Wright’s emphasis on help defense shores up any size deficiencies. Marquette‘s small ball approach, on the other hand, has so far come up short. Before diving into the issues surrounding the Golden Eagles’ strategy, though, it’s important to illustrate why Steve Wojciechowski has resorted to it in the first place. On its face, his decision to add undersized shooters to his lineup appears to favor offense over defense.

The maneuver has turned what was a decent offense into the program’s best since Tom Crean and Dwyane Wade were still on campus back in 2003. The ninth-most efficient offense in college basketball features the nation’s best three-point shooting arsenal at 42.4 percent, serving as a primary source of the offense and ostensibly justifying Wojciechowski’s decision to recruit for a motion-heavy, perimeter-based attack. The glaring trade-off on defense, while somewhat apparent at the time, was not expected to be this drastic. While Marquette’s offense has clearly surged, its mid-major defense (165th nationally) represents a problem of positional versatility. Most undersized teams have at least one or two guys who are capable of “sizing up” and defending bigger players on switches. Wings JaJuan Johnson and Haanif Cheatham both possess good athleticism, but neither has shown an ability to effectively front his man on the block and contest shots around the rim. Meanwhile, the pair of stretch fours that Wojciechowski employs, Sam Hauser and Katin Reinhardt, are offensive specialists who are not quick enough to defend the perimeter. Watch Hauser in the clip below as he is caught off balance and never regains his composure.

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Marquette may have already matched last season’s win total, but conference success has been hard to come by. A once-dominant, perennial contender in the Big East has fallen by the wayside following the departure of Buzz Williams. And while expectations have been tempered for first-time head coach Steve Wojciechowski, the frustration is already evident. On its face, the Golden Eagles’ frontcourt pairing of Indiana transfer Luke Fischer – an experienced junior with a plethora of post moves – and highly touted freshman Henry Ellenson forms the core of the best offensive frontcourt in the conference. Unsurprisingly, the team is sporting both its best two-point field goal percentage offense and defense of the last 15 years. Marquette has thrived when working through the post, a reality made even more evident when the Golden Eagles shot 54.8 percent inside the arc against Villanova, a team that usually holds opponents to 41.9 percent two-point shooting (16th nationally).

Yet for a team that plays so well in the paint (Fischer and Ellenson shoot a combined 70% at the rim), the team’s offense has been undermined by an odd plan of attack. Entry passes or pick-and-roll plays that have commonly resulted in easy Golden Eagles points are scarcely used; instead, Wojciechowski’s team is playing at an unsustainably quick pace, averaging just 15.7 seconds per possession on offense. The team’s average offensive possession length has decreased from 18.6 seconds (198th nationally) to 15.7 (34th nationally) over the course of one season. This figure is undoubtedly distorted by a high turnover rate and low rebounding rate, but those two issues also plagued last year’s team, and to a similar extent. Perhaps as a result of the relative inexperience of its backcourt players, the quickened pace has Marquette turning the ball over on 20.5 percent of all its possessions, which puts them 296th nationally in the category.

Marquette’s Henry Ellenson Plays a Perimeter-Oriented Game (USA Today Images)

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With Halloween nearing, we thought it would be fun to answer a preseason burning question for each Big East team using a simple “Trick” or “Treat.” Part I of this season preview answers one key question for each of the teams picked in the bottom half of the preseason Big East Coaches’ Poll. We’ll tackle the remainder tomorrow.

St. John’s: Can Chris Mullin actually coach?

(Photo: Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)

Treat: Chris Mullin has not coached a single second of basketball at any level. That’s an indisputable fact unless there is some CYO coaching experience back in the day that we don’t know about. Mullin does, however, know the game of basketball and it will be that knowledge of the game blended with his longtime NBA experience (both as a player and executive) that will aid him on the Red Storm’s sideline. The former National Player of the Year (Wooden, UPI, USBWA – 1985) has also surrounded himself with an excellent staff that mixes college coaching with NBA player development experience. Despite having to basically bring in an entirely new roster this season, expect St. John’s to surprise some people with its effort and Mullin’s in-game coaching.

Seton Hall: Can Isaiah Whitehead lead the Pirates?

Trick: While Isaiah Whitehead is clearly the best player on Seton Hall, that doesn’t automatically mean he is the team’s leader. Last season was marred by locker room issues and a horrible 11 losses in the team’s final 14 games. Jared Sina left the program during the season and Sterling Gibbs — the player who presumably would be an ideal leader as an upperclassmen — decided to use his graduate transfer exemption and finish his collegiate career at UConn. Kevin Willard is putting all of his eggs in the Whitehead basket as he turns over the point guard duties to the Brooklyn sophomore. Whitehead spearheaded the recent decision to get the team off of social media this season — probably a good sign — but he’ll have to prove that he can lead the Pirates when things go sideways on the floor. Is he capable of that role?

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