With non-conference play all but wrapped up, we start to turn our attention to conference play this week. But, before we do we want to take a look back and see what we talked about prior to the season.

“We made a lot of predictions and bold statements prior to the season. Which prognostication did you nail and which did you completely whiff on?”

Adam Butler: I wish I’d had the stones to say things like “Jordan Adams will be UCLA’s best player” or “Josh Smith will leave the Bruins” or “USC will utterly flop.” No, on each of those insights I was sightless. I was the cool kid picking USC to overachieve and who was gobbling up Shabazz hyperbole like flavored vodka at a sorority house. I went out on the limb to say Arizona and Colorado would be good. I have said Spencer Dinwiddie would be All-Conference and, to date, he’s held up his side of that bargain, and I still love his game when he shows up (although, zero points vs. Fresno?). The one thing I’ve nailed but I don’t think it’s been terribly bold has been that Mark Lyons, no matter what he did numbers-wise, was going to have an overwhelming effect on this Wildcats team. I think it’s safe to say that he’s been a lightning rod of attention and criticism and handled it all in stride, strides that have taken him straight to winning buckets against Florida and SDSU. Lyons brings a dynamic to Tucson that was sorely needed and he has not let them down. As for whiffs? I figured Washington would be better and that Oregon would be worse. I thought Jio Fontan would hover around conference POY talk and that Dewayne Dedmon would be a big surprise: fails. There’s still time to play out but it’s hard to say that any of those thoughts will right themselves in my predictive favor. And in that remaining time, I’m excited to see just what UCLA will do and how Arizona’s freshmen bigs will develop within the routine of Pac-12 play. Moving forward, a few additional thoughts: Can Herb’s team keep up their pace? No. Is Solomon Hill going to win the conference POY award? No (but he may be the MVP). Can Colorado be the second best team in the Pac? Yes. Will Stanford be better then their 8-4 record? Yes. Alas, predictions are meaningless but oh-so-fun.

Jio Fontan In The Player Of The Year Race? Not So Much. (AP Photo)

Connor Pelton: Looking back on it, I made some interesting (to say the least) picks back in October. But I did nail a few of those, starting with the pick of Arsalan Kazemi as an All-Pac-12 performer. I was the only one to include the Rice transfer on my 15-player ballot, and he has answered by averaging 9.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG, and 3.1 SPG so far. In fact, if he had not had been so tentative shooting the ball at the beginning of the season, it is not a stretch to say he would not only be leading the team in rebounds but points as well. Another pick I am liking was that of Jonathan Gilling as an all-conference three-point shooter. Kevin and I were the only ones to include the sophomore on our lists, and he has proved us right by knocking down 30 triples, second highest in the conference. But the pick I am most proud of is selecting USC at 10th in the conference, while everyone else here had the Trojans sixth or seventh. The thing that made me so skeptical about USC at the beginning of the season was the question, “Where do the points come from behind Jio Fontan?” Some said senior forward Aaron Fuller, who’s averaging a stellar 2.9 PPG. Case closed.

Now, onto the whiffs. While Chasson Randle hasn’t had a great season, there is no question he should be second team All-Pac-12 right now. I did not even include him on my list of 15, opting instead for guys like Ricky Kreklow and Kaleb Tarczewski. Whoops. It is easy to look bad when projecting an all-newcomer team, and boy have I done that. I did not include Mark Lyons on my team, or Jahii Carson, or Josh Scott. Those guys are averaging 13.4, 17.9, and 12.5 PPG, respectively. As we move into conference play, the picks that are on the fence of good and bad will begin to clear up. Are the Buffaloes an NCAA Tournament team? I said yes in October, and I still think they are now. Can Washington rebound from an awful start and make the NIT? No. Can California win a big game? It has to happen eventually, right?

Time will answer everything, and before we know it, we will be filling out brackets and talking about surprises and snubs on Selection Sunday.

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1. UCLA fans are still trying to figure out what to make of their major win this past weekend against Missouri. On one hand, Shabazz Muhammad continues to look more and more like one of the best freshman in the nation, averaging 19.6 points per game, and Jordan Adams has been a great surprise thus far for the Bruins. On the other hand, UCLA is arguably the most prestigious basketball school in the country and the coaching job Ben Howland has done since 2008 has not been up to UCLA standards. In terms of this year, the Bruins were upset at home against Cal Poly and are struggling too much defensively by ranking 121st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, as the season goes on, UCLA will still have to improve tremendously to meet expectations and for Ben Howland to keep his job.
2. Washington certainly hasn’t fared too well in games against Connecticut in its program history and on Saturday it was their cold shooting that factored into a 61-53 loss. The 53 points were a season low for Lorenzo Romar’s team as the Huskies shot a season low 29.4 percent from the field. As the Huskies have incorporated shooters C.J. Wilcox and Scott Suggs more into their offense this year, a poor shooting night like this was bound to happen. Additionally, Lorenzo Romar continues t0 have little success in road games in the Eastern Time Zone as he is now a putrid 2-13 in such contests as the head coach of Washington.
3. Arizona came back from Hawaii as the champions of the Diamond Head Classic and are now 12-0 heading into conference play and without question the best team in the Pac-12. However, like most teams at this point in the year, there is still room for improvement. The Wildcats are averaging 14.5 turnovers per game on the year and the team as a whole and point guard Mark Lyons will need to cut back on that as the season goes on. Arizona could also benefit from more consistent shooting from three. Despite Kevin Parrom shooting 47 percent on the year, Nick Johnson, Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons, who are the Wildcats’ three leading scorers, are all shooting under 40 percent from beyond the arc. As a team, Arizona is shooting 39 percent from three, but remains inconsistent as they shot 25 percent against San Diego State and 44 percent against Miami in their past two games.
4. An unexpected home loss to Towson was definitely not what Oregon State needed heading into conference play. This game was supposed to be a confidence builder for the Beavers, but it was anything but that. Going into the game, Oregon State was undefeated at home, but they could never put Towson away despite having a 19-point second half lead. Oregon State has one more home non-conference game against Texas Pan-American that will take place today, and the Beavers will be looking to come away with a much needed victory.
5. Cal still can’t manage to pick up that coveted marquee non-conference win as they were unable to beat Harvard at home this weekend. If the Bears want to hear their name on Selection Sunday, the loss to Harvard won’t help, and although losses against UNLV and Creighton will boost their overall RPI, that signature victory seems less and less likely for Mike Montgomery’s team this year. Going forward, the Bears will start off the conference schedule on the road with UCLA, who is coming off their biggest win of the season, and will also be dealing with the injury of starting center Richard Solomon.

It was one of the more thrilling games of the young season, an up-and-down affair featuring great individual performances, scoring in bunches, and little of that pesky defense that can serve just to ugly things up. No, this was a track meet, a sprint. And one that needed some extra distance to decide a winner.

Three Key Takeaways.

1. This is What The Buzz Was About. We spent much of the offseason hearing about how great this UCLA recruiting class was and just how high the ceiling was for this team, but for much of the first month and a half of the season, the Bruins just didn’t live up to the hype. But quietly over the last couple weeks, UCLA has gotten on an offensive roll, racking up efficient offensive performances against questionable competition. Leading the way has been Shabazz Muhammad, one of the top two recruits in this year’s freshman class, depending on whom you ask. Tonight was his, and really, the entire UCLA team’s chance to show the strides that they have made. Muhammad poured in 27 points, including seven of UCLA’s nine points in overtime, and flashed the athleticism and killer instinct that was long rumored about him. While there is still plenty of room for improvement (case in point, he grabbed just one rebound in 34 minutes of play), we’re starting to see what we expected to see. And in proximity to the rumors that had been swirling about Ben Howland’s job being in jeopardy, this win may have come at just the right time.
2. Phil Pressey. He Good. Phil Pressey, on the other hand, was a guy who had been largely living up to the high standards that he had previously set for himself. Tonight, he found himself facing a team with an up-tempo, minimal defense in which he can thrive. And thrive he did, wowing Tiger and Bruin fans alike to the tune of 19 points and 19 assists, setting a Missouri record for dimes in a game. The assists are the big story, and they came in a variety of ways: whip-aheads on the fast break; drive-and-dish jobs creating easy looks for big guys like Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers; and crisp passes to spot-up shooters for threes. And when he wasn’t handing out assists, he was creating for himself. He knocked down a late three (one of three on the night) in the face of Larry Drew II, he got into the lane and flipped in runners, and he knocked down pull-up jumpers. Just looking at the 8-for-22 effort in the box score could give one pause, but he was everything for the Tigers, accounting for 67 of their 94 points on just his shots and assists alone.
3. Defense? What Defense? Much of the talk during the game on Twitter was about the lack of defense being played. And, yeah, there is little arguing that this was not exactly a fine example of defensive basketball. When all was said and done, the two teams combined to give up 1.18 points per possession. But you know what? At least for UCLA, that’s something to be okay with — at least there were signs of improvement. While they allowed far too much dribble penetration, at least it was to a point guard the quality of Pressey. And UCLA forced 17 turnovers (five from Pressey) which led to 36 points, quite possibly the difference in the game. At no point is this UCLA team going to be a shining example of Howland’s great defensive coaching, but if the Bruins can bolster its already potent offense by forcing turnovers and creating fast break opportunities, at least that can help to mitigate some of the easy points they give up.

Stars of the Game. The Wear Twins. Yeah, this should probably go to Pressey. Or maybe if you really want to hand it out to a player on the winning team, Muhammad. But I’ve already talked plenty about those two. How about the Wear twins though? Though they are a pair much maligned by large fan bases on both coasts, they were both excellent tonight. Travis Wear set a new career high, knocking in 22 points, grabbing nine boards and swatting a couple of shots. His brother, despite some early foul trouble, made all seven of the shots he attempted from the field on his way to 16 points and six boards. And, while a guy like Alex Oriakhi will get more attention as the big athletic dude in the middle, the Wears outplayed him, frustrated him, and, frankly, out-toughed him. Now there’s a sentiment I never thought I’d have. And, finally, with the game on the line, it was not Muhammad, it was not Jordan Adams (who was on the bench with leg cramps after being the guy called on at the end of regulation), it was not Kyle Anderson to whom the Bruins turned in the final moments of overtime. It was Travis Wear, who responded with a nice turnaround jumper to put UCLA up three with 13 seconds remaining.

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As conference plays looms around the corner, the last real big game on the Pac-12 non-conference schedule tips off tonight at 7:00 PM PST on ESPN2 as the as-yet underachieving Bruins take on the Tigers, currently ranked #9 in the RTC Top 25. I’ll (@AMurawa) be on hand at Pauley Pavilion to report on the action, but in advance, let’s run down what to keep an eye on tonight.

Why It’s Important: While Missouri may have some solid wins on their non-conference resume (Virginia Commonwealth, Illinois and Stanford), UCLA is very much in need of heading into conference play with something positive in the rear view mirror. While they’re riding a four-game winning streak now and the offense has picked up over most of that stretch, defensively they are still struggling. And Missouri’s efficient offensive, run by playmaker par excellence Phil Pressey, is going to give the Bruins all the test they want. The hyped freshman class of Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams has been explosive, but they’ll need to prove their toughness tonight in order to establish any national cred.

Phil Pressey’s Quickness and Court Vision Will Test UCLA’s Unproven Defense (US Presswire)

Missouri Player to Watch – Phil Pressey: The point has been made before, but I don’t mind repeating it: Pressey is the type of player who can, even in the midst of a poor shooting night, have a positive effect on his team on both ends of the court. The most recent example of such came on Saturday when Pressey missed his first 15 shots, wound up just 3-of-19 from the field (and an oh-fer from behind the arc) and yet was still almost universally regarded as the most important player in the Tigers’ nine-point win over Illinois. Why? Because his ability to create good looks for his teammates (and yes, part of that is being a constant threat to shoot the ball) is almost unparalleled. He hands out assists on better than 32% of his teammates baskets, good for better than six assists per night. Given UCLA’s record of struggling to stop penetration, priority number one for Ben Howland and his senior point guard Larry Drew II will be slowing Pressey, forcing bad shots and making other players beat them.

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1. Saint Nick came through in a big way on Christmas night for Arizona, as sophomore guard Nick Johnson swatted away a potentially game-winning layup attempt by San Diego State’s Chase Tapley to preserve the Wildcats’ perfect season and earn the Diamond Head Classic title. While the first half was stodgy and slow, the two teams lived up to expectations in the second half and delivered a terrific performance. Once again, it was seniors who led UA, this time Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom doing the job as Mark Lyons never really got into a groove, hampered by foul trouble, turnovers and erratic shooting. And then there was, of course, Johnson, who struggled shooting the ball but was terrific defensively, and helped out initiating the offense and made the athletic play in the waning moments to seal the game.
2. Former Arizona star Miles Simon, who won the Most Outstanding Player in the Wildcats\’ 1997 run to Lute Olson’s sole NCAA Championship, worked the Diamond Head Classic as the color man for ESPN. And, despite the fact that UA’s backcourt may not match up with the traditional ideal of true point and scoring off-guard, Simon is impressed with the duo of Lyons and Johnson. He sees the duo as complementary parts with Johnson capable of helping Lyons out with some areas (initiating offense and getting other players involved) that he is weaker in. I would add that their ability to have Hill also share some of the ball-handling load means that, even without the proverbial “traditional” point, Arizona’s guard play is not a significant concern.
3. UCLA’s Tony Parker has been a little-used piece for Ben Howland, averaging under nine minutes a game despite his team’s lack of depth along the frontcourt. Following another eight-minute appearance against Fresno State, he tweeted out “A lot of told me this wasn’t for me I wish I would’ve listened.\” Given Howland’s recent issues with players transferring out of his program, this tweet and other recent tweets from Parker referencing homesickness indicate that he may not be long for the Bruin program as well. And, of course, Bruins Nation took this as a chance to rip Howland again. The other side of the coin is that Parker missed time early due to injury and has been inconsistent in the minutes he has received, playing ineffectively on the boards, fouling at far too high of a rate and getting lost defensively, and this type of complaining public message probably does nothing to help him earn more playing time. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, as Howland likely should have found some more minutes against UCLA’s weaker competition, but the fact of the matter is, Parker hasn’t done a whole lot to earn those minutes yet.
4. Tying up one loose end, Oregon State’s Eric Moreland earned the official Pac-12 Player of the Week honor for his pair of double-doubles and 17-point and 11.5-rebound average last week. We opted for Jordan Adams as our pick (and oddly enough, neither Adams nor any other Bruin was even nominated by the school for the award), but Moreland was certainly a worthy recipient as well. Always known for his defensive ability, Moreland has shown a significantly improved offensive game this season. Where last year he was little more than a garbage man on offense, he’s added the ability to beat his man off the bounce, his jumper is significantly improved and he’s converting shots around the lane at a high rate, all while continuing to defend and rebound like a madman.
5. And lastly, back to UCLA. As some Bruin fans continue to root for Ben Howland’s ouster as head coach, Bruins Nation put together a post with some of the great moments in his time in Westwood. Worth a look for hoops fans, but sure makes you remember just how good UCLA was going just a few years back. Could you have imagined after Howland’s third straight trip to the Final Four that he would be on the chopping block inside of five years, minus any type of serious NCAA investigation into improprieties in his program? Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Back before the season began, we figured that the Pac-12 would be dominated by a pair of teams: Arizona and UCLA. And prior to this week, one of those teams – Arizona – has dominated our weekly honors, earning the last three Team of the Week nods. Well, this week, based on a schedule that didn’t exactly feature the most brilliant competition in the world, that other team – UCLA – earns some recognition of its own, sweeping our awards for the week.

Behind Their Heralded Freshmen, UCLA Is Beginning To Show Glimpses Of Its Potential

Team of the Week – UCLA

I’ll just come right out and say it: we were suffering a little Arizona fatigue and looking for an excuse – any excuse – to write about some team other than the Wildcats in this spot. We looked at Colorado, who blew out a bad Northern Arizona team by 47; we briefly considered giving Arizona State the nod on the strength of a road win over a major conference team (albeit, arguably the worst major conference team in the nation) in Texas Tech. But in the end we give the Bruins the benefit of the doubt for a pair of wins over middling mid-major programs, Long Beach State and Fresno State. But, more so than the mere fact of a couple of ho-hum wins, UCLA gets the nod because we finally got a glimpse of some of what we were expecting from their talented batch of freshmen. The trio of Shabazz Muhammad, Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams combined for per-game averages of 62.5 points, 23.5 rebounds, nine assists, six steals, and a 66.7% effective field goal rate this week as the team is rounding into an offensive juggernaut. Well, at least against bad teams. Missouri looms on Friday evening and if UCLA can do the Pac-12 proud in that one, it’s a good bet we’ll be writing about them again next week.

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1. For the UCLA Bruins, incoming freshmen Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson were supposed to make the biggest impact, but it’s been Jordan Adams who has been the best freshman so far for the Bruins. In Adams’ first four games, he set a school record as the first freshman to record four 20-point games to start his career. Unlike other impact freshman, Adams doesn’t stand out in any part of the game — he’s not extremely athletic and his shot isn’t the prettiest, but he’s reliable and and can score in multiple ways. No one at UCLA has been surprised by his performance as he continues to impress as the second leading scorer on the team with 16.9 points per game. As the season goes on, opponents will start to notice Jordan Adams even more.
2. Washington guard Andrews Andrews continues to struggle with an ankle injury and is questionable for Thursday’s upcoming match-up against Cal Poly. Andrews has missed the past three games and Lorenzo Romar believes there’s a small chance he could play, despite the fact that Andrews has been unable to practice. The Huskies, who are 6-4 on the season, will play Thursday’s game at home, but will be eager to get back Andrews before conference play as UW starts with three Pac-12 games on the road and will need his presence to help the Huskies get off to a good start.
3. Although Colorado’s bench has had little success this year, Tad Boyle believes getting his reserves into the game earlier more often will help them out and plans to do so against Northern Arizona this Friday. In Colorado’s last game against Fresno State, the bench was outscored by a margin of 20-2, but Boyle believes that the only way his freshman-dominated bench will get better is with more playing time and experience. Andre Roberson, Josh Scott, Askia Booker and Spencer Dinwiddie, all starters, are accounting for 77 percent of the offense on the team and will need the bench to provide more scoring to help ease the burden.
4. Arizona State has been one of the surprises in the Pac-12 this season with its 9-2 record, but Herb Sendek is still concerned about the depth of his team. Only seven players are averaging more than 10 minutes per game and Sendek has said that he would like to get one more player into the rotation but it remains to be seen who will step up. Senior guard Chris Colvin has slowed down since his great start and freshman Eric Jacobsen has shown he can play, but so far only against inferior competition. If the Sun Devils want to continue to become this year’s  surprise team, they will need more production from their bench.
5. One of the surprise players this year in the Pac-12 has been Oregon’s Arsalan Kazemi. He continues to impress in each game he plays and Dana Altman has said that Kazemi hasn’t even shown all of his offensive potential yet. Part of Kazemi’s early success has been the fact that he has put the transfer situation from Rice completely behind him and is focused to on helping Oregon improve, which he has accomplished so far by leading them in rebounds and steals while helping the Ducks to a 9-1 record.

Andrew Murawa is an RTC correspondent and a Pac-12 Microsite writer. He filed this report after tonight’s UCLA-Long Beach State game in Westwood.

Three Key Takeaways.

Ben Howland Called Larry Drew II’s Performance Tuesday Night The Best Of the Season (Alexa Smahl, Daily Bruin)

1. Defensive Woes. Offensively, UCLA had a lot to be happy with. Defensively, not so much. While there were stretches of defensive intensity (mostly midway through the second half), the effort wasn’t sustained throughout the game. There were the typical things like not fighting through screens, failing to box out and being late on rotations at times, but the perimeter defense was by and large solid. The most glaring issue was along the front line. Where UCLA’s frontcourt was once considered a possible strength, tonight the Wear twins were owned by Dan Jennings on the block time and again, rarely putting up much of a fight against his power moves. The only possible hope for reinforcements up front would be if Tony Parker were to earn some minutes, but tonight, after playing 18 minutes on Saturday, he only played two minutes with the game in doubt before three minutes worth of mop-up duty.
2. Dropping Dimes. Larry Drew II continued his excellent play at the point for the Bruins, as his redemption tour continues. Aside from a pretty brutal game against Texas, Drew has been excellent running the offense this year. With another nine assists tonight, he’s leading the Pac-12 with 8.4 assists per game. But Drew’s game tonight was complete: He knocked down open jumpers (6-of-7 from the field with a couple threes), he grabbed four defensive boards, he only turned the ball over once, and he earned the praise of his coach for his defensive effort.
3. Comparing UCLA to LBSU’s Other Opponents. Long Beach State has played four other big time opponents this year: North Carolina, Arizona, Syracuse and Ohio State – all currently ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top 20. Against those teams, LBSU has not been a good team offensively, averaging just 0.83 points per possession; against UCLA, however, the 49ers scored 1.09 PPP. The good news for UCLA is that those elite teams scored an average of 1.18 points per possession themselves, but UCLA scored 1.39 PPP. Take those numbers for what they’re worth – which probably is not much given the small sample size.

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Three thoughts on the Pac-12’s 3-1 Tuesday, where we’ll focus on USC and UCLA’s tight consolation wins in their respective tournaments on opposite sides of the country.

• KO ball prevails in Lahaina. With athletic, talented players that didn’t suit up for SC last season like J.T. Terrell, Jio Fontan, and Eric Wise, Kevin O’Neill will eventually turn to a more aggressive tempo from the deliberate style he’s been known for. But early in the year, classic KO ball did the trick for the Trojans in their 59-53 overtime win against Texas. O’Neill’s guys plodded along in the second half, with both teams going to overtime after scoring just 21 points each in the final 20 minutes. Obviously, this one wasn’t for lovers of offense (maybe those of you should check out this box score); each team hit just two three-pointers a piece in the 45 minutes of action.

There’s Been Many Cringe-Worthy Moments For Howland Early On In 2012-13 (credit: Jamie Squires)

• The Bruins are still working things out, and that’s alright. Often times, teams with as much talent as UCLA has, especially new talent, will struggle early on to play together and find lineups and rotations that fit well together. Take freshman guard Jordan Adams, for instance. Adams had one of the best first 11 days of anyone in the conference, newcomer or vet, but shot an ice-cold one-for-six from the field once Shabazz Muhammad entered the starting lineup this afternoon. So, for the hoops fans up and down the west coast that may be concerned with this four-point victory over a team that has already lost home games to the likes of Youngstown State and Southern Miss, know that the important thing here is the W. UCLA now has 11 days to shore up their lazy defensive play and find rotations that maximize its potential before its showdown with San Diego State in Anaheim. If Ben Howland can’t figure it out by then, worry away. Read the rest of this entry »

Georgetown point guard Markel Starks may have led all scorers with 23 points and the UCLA trio of superstar freshmen — Jordan Adams, Shabazz Muhammad, and Kyle Anderson — may have offered tantalizing glimpses at their talent and potential. But when the final horn sounded on the Hoyas’ 78-70 victory over then-No. 11 UCLA, there was little doubt who the best player on the floor was. After exiting early in the team’s season opener after being hit in the head and missing the team’s second game too, Hoyas’ forward Otto Porter returned to the starting lineup and delivered a virtuoso performance that reminded his teammates and his coaching staff just how much they missed him while he was gone. There are few, if any, players in the country who have the athleticism and versatility to deliver the type of line that Porter delivered Monday night.

Sorry To The Rest Of The Big East, But Georgetown’s Otto Porter Ain’t A High-Schooler Anymore.

Eighteen points on 6-of-10 shooting, 11 rebounds, five assists, five blocks, three steals, and just two turnovers is the type of stat-stuffing usually reserved for a created player in a video game, yet Porter did that in 35 minutes of play, while helping hold a lineup full of future NBA players to just 40 percent shooting from the field and adding in two late three-pointers to ice the game for the Hoyas. At first glance, it is easy to assume that Porter will never be able to replicate that sort of performance considering it came early in the season against a young opponent still learning to play together, but we aren’t talking about about an ordinary player who had a fluke performance. We are talking about an athletic freak with a 7’1” wingspan who is poised to take a more central role for Georgetown this season.

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