John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings:

1. Butler 8-0
2. Green Bay 6-2
3. Detroit 5-3
4. Wright State 4-4
5. Valparaiso 4-4
6. Milwaukee 3-4
7. Cleveland State 3-4
8. Loyola (IL) 3-5
9. Youngstown State 2-6
10. UIC 1-7

Top Storylines:

• Home team domination. It is tough to win on the road in the Horizon League. Home teams are 29-8 in league play this season. That’s why you see so many teams bunched up right around .500. The only teams that seem to be bucking this trend are Butler and UIC. The Flames are having problems winning anywhere (though their one victory did come over Detroit at the Pavilion) and the Bulldogs play well anywhere. Even Butler’s two closest games have come on the road at Loyola and Detroit.
• Hot button tournament. The Horizon League Tournament format is raising some ire lately. The tournament features double-byes for the Top 2 seeds and forces everyone except those two teams to play on back-to-back nights at some point. This can be troubling for a team trying to win its way into the NCAA Tournament (especially considering the tournament is played on the home court of the highest seed). A real premium is placed on the 18-game regular season conference schedule which uses a true home-away series.

Team Breakdowns:

I’m going to do things a little differently this week. This will probably be an every-other-week sort of thing. I keep detailed “per possessions” results of all the teams in the Horizon League during conference play and I wanted to share some insights about the conference that come from those numbers.

• The Luckiest: In conference play, that award goes to Green Bay. This is a function of the fact that the Phoenix suffered a bad loss to their rivals at Milwaukee. Green Bay plays much better at home than they do on the road and five of their eight games have been at the Resch Center.
• The Unluckiest: Detroit is the winner here. The Titans are the second best team in the Horizon League according to the numbers, but they managed to lose an unbelievably close game to Butler at home and lost squeakers to UIC and Green Bay on the road. There is no more margin for error for Ray McCallum’s team if they want to be in the top two. Wright State comes to Detroit on Saturday for another key game.
• Burning up the nets: Of course, Butler leads the league in points per possession. The Bulldogs have a ton of offensive talent. Also, Green Bay with Rahmon Fletcher and Bryquis Perine are second. What might surprise people is that Valparaiso ranks third. The Crusaders are led by the Horizon League’s leading scorer, Brandon Wood. The sophomore scores more than 18 PPG. Of course Valparaiso also makes every Horizon League team look like the Bulldogs on offense, which explains the Crusaders’ 4-4 conference record.
• Making life difficult for opponents: Detroit has the best defense in the league. It is even better than Butler’s on a per possession basis during conference play (the Bulldogs rank second).  The Titans have a huge front line that is forcing opponents to shoot a lot of contested shots. Milwaukee is in the middle of the conference pack regarding defense, as well. The Panthers have tons of trouble scoring, but a tight defense has kept them in games all season.
• The frontrunner: Oh yes, you know this is Butler. The Bulldogs have the best offense (by far) and the second best defense in the league. Their efficiency margin per possession is twice as good as any other team. This is a team that could run the table. Now, there will be hiccups along the way, like Thursday’s near-miss against Loyola. Detroit is a solid second, but Green Bay currently holds the edge by a game in conference record. The race for second, which might also include Wright State, is going to be exciting to watch. Typically, that’s the team that gets the chance to knock off Butler in the championship game, so I’m sure everyone in the conference will be paying close attention.

Saturday’s Games (times Eastern):

• Wright State @ Detroit – Saturday at 2 p.m.
• Valparaiso @ Loyola – Saturday at 4 p.m.

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings

1. Butler 6-0
2. Green Bay 5-2
3. Detroit 5-2
4. Wright State 4-3
5. Cleveland State 3-3
6. Loyola (IL) 2-4
7. Valparaiso 2-4
8. Milwaukee 2-4
9. Youngstown State 2-5
10. UIC 1-5

Top Storylines

• Local rivalries impacting the standings. Milwaukee handed Green Bay its second conference loss with a victory last Saturday. Tonight Loyola (IL) and UIC play a cross-town game in Chicago that will be televised on ESPNU.
• Close calls. The evenly matched talent in the Horizon League is making for some emotional games and tough decisions for referees and coaches alike. Even Butler isn’t immune as the Bulldogs had to escape Detroit in overtime last week.
• Looking like things will go through Hinkle. Butler has now opened up a two-game lead on the rest of the conference and has played the toughest road stretch in the league by going to Detroit and Wright State. A trip to Green Bay in two weeks looms, but other than that first place looks like a lock for the Bulldogs. That means the conference tournament will once again finish in Indianapolis.

Team Breakdowns

• Butler: Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack are both in the Top 6 in the conference in points per game. If Matt Howard ever breaks out of his season-long slump then Butler is going to be super dangerous. Hayward is also second in the conference in rebounds per game. Bulldogs play at Youngstown State on Saturday. Even on the road it should be a blowout.
• Green Bay: The Phoenix lost to the Panthers in an emotional game. The most impressive player on the court was Rahmon Fletcher. He is second in the conference in scoring. The other big names for Green Bay are Bryguis Perine and Troy Cotton. They’re also in the Top 15 in scoring. The Phoenix got a big win over Wright State at home on Thursday and now have a huge game against Detroit on January 16. The Phoenix will also pad their stats with a home game against 2-15 Houston Baptist on Tuesday.
• Detroit: The Titans are made up of balanced scoring. No one ranks in the Top 10. Eli Holman is tied for second in the conference in rebounding. He only played 20 minutes against Butler due to foul trouble. His absence was the difference in the game. The big game against the Phoenix is the only game the Titans play this week. They take a week off after Green Bay to prepare for Wright State.
• Wright State: A tough loss to Green Bay on the road dropped Wright State out of the upper tier of the conference. The Raiders are a good basketball team. Todd Brown and Vaughn Duggins are a great 1-2 punch that really put the ball in the basket, but this team makes it impact on the defensive end.
• Cleveland State: Norris Cole is the 3rd leading scorer in the conference. He’s really benefited from the Vikings opening things up over the past few weeks. Cleveland State led Butler at the half on the road before dropping a 64-55 decision. The Vikings play at Valparaiso on Saturday.
• Loyola: The Ramblers have come back to like a bit in conference play. The three-point shots aren’t dropping quite as often and the magic that carried them during close games in non-conference play is gone. Loyola has lost 3 straight games coming into the big inter-city match-up with UIC. The Ramblers also have the leading rebounder in the conference in Andy Polka. After the game against UIC it’s time to prepare for Butler which comes to the Gentile Center on Thursday.
• Valparaiso: Brandon Wood sure knows how to fill up a basket. He’s the leading scorer in the Horizon League this season. His teammate Cory Johnson can put points on the board in a hurry as well. Johnson is also the seventh leading rebounder in the conference. Valparaiso had lost three straight games of their own before squeaking past Youngstown State on Thursday. Next up is Cleveland State before a road game at UIC.
• Milwaukee: The Panthers have gotten off to a surprisingly slow start in conference. It looked like they had begun to turn things around with a 20-point victory over their rivals from Green Bay, but a 16-point loss to Detroit really screws up the momentum. James Eayrs is a big dude at 6’7 and 310 pounds, but he can play basketball. He’s seventh in the conference in rebounding and 16th in scoring. Milwaukee tries to get back on track against Wright State on Saturday.
• Youngstown State: DeAndre Mays is the type of player that can carry a team, and sometimes the Penguins have asked him to do just that. He’s eighth in the conference in scoring, but when he gets on a roll Youngstown has a much better chance. The Penguins held home court against the two Chicago schools before losing a tough game to Valparaiso on Thursday, so it’s obvious that they are going to be competitive going forward in league play. This might be a team that could surprise someone down the stretch.
• UIC: The Flames completely changed their identity over the weekend as they switched from a team dominated by guard play to one that relied more on points in the paint. Forward Jeremy Buttell ranks fifth in the conference in rebounding. UIC needed to do something as the Flames have dropped 3 straight since a surprising victory over Detroit on New Year’s Eve. The cross-town game against Loyola will be a big one as will a gome game against Valparaiso on the 21st.

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings

1. Butler 3-0
2. Green Bay 4-1
3. Detroit 3-1
4. Wright State 3-1
5. Cleveland State 2-2
6. Loyola (IL) 2-3
7. Valparaiso 1-2
8. Milwaukee 1-3
9. Youngstown State 1-4
10. UIC 1-4

Top Storylines

• Into conference play to stay. Besides the Bracket Busters event everyone is locked in and focused on conference play in the Horizon League.
• Butler is still the team to beat. The Bulldogs haven’t been challenged yet in the Horizon League, but every team is gunning for them. There’s a huge game coming up at Wright State on Friday and another at Detroit on Saturday.
• Parity reigns in league play. Besides the Butler bully at the top the conference nobody can get away with playing anything less than their “A” game. That’s especially true on the road.

Team Breakdowns

Butler: The Bulldogs are an excellent offensive team, but the trip to Wright State is going to be a huge game. Pomeroy projects the Bulldogs to lose in a tight game on the road. The Bulldogs might’ve slipped up one too many times to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, but now all that matters is the conference tournament in March. Gordon Hayward is ridiculous. If you haven’t seen Butler play this season you’re missing out on a treat. He’s got an excellent game and he rebounds. He’s 46th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.

Green Bay: One of the two annual rivalry games between the two Wisconsin schools in the Horizon League takes place on Saturday. The game is in Milwaukee so the Phoenix are slight underdogs. Green Bay won’t have played in a week since its last game was a 6-point win at Valparaiso. Here the player to watch is Rahmon Fletcher. He dominates the ball for the Phoenix, taking the 16th highest percentage of shots in the nation. Fletcher has to be on the court for Green Bay to play well. The Phoenix lost by an average of 23.5 points per game to Butler and Oakland when he was out.

Detroit: Probably the tallest team in the Horizon League, the aptly named Titans are using it to their advantage. Detroit suffered an upset loss to UIC at the Pavilion last Thursday, but came back to beat Loyola on the road to get a split in Chicago. A game against Valparaiso could be a trap game before Butler on Sunday. (Valparaiso is Butler’s “travel partner” and could be a trap game for many opponents this season.) Eli Holman is one of the tall people on the frontline. He’s 6’9″ but plays bigger and is 28th in the country in block percentage.

Wright State: The “other” Top 50 Pomeroy team in the Horizon League, the Raiders already have a tough loss in Horizon League play – 53-52 to Loyola on New Year’s Eve. Now they get Butler on their home court. Wright State forces a lot of turnovers, plays at a slow pace and generally grinds through a game. They don’t have any particularly good non-conference wins – Belmont is the best – so it’s Horizon League title or bust for the Raiders. Senior guard Todd Brown and junior guard Vaughn Duggins lead a very balanced attack. No player uses more than 21.8% of the team’s possessions while on the court.

Cleveland State: The Vikings are 6-10, but don’t let the record fool you, this team is a competitor in the Horizon League. After a four-game losing streak (albeit against some talented teams) head coach Gary Waters switched to a four-guard starting lineup and it’s paid off in two wins over Youngstown State and Loyola. The Vikings have to finish off the Chicago pair when UIC comes to town and then prepare for Butler. (Everyone prepares for Butler.) Norris Cole is the guy for Cleveland State. He does a little bit of everything from his guard position. Also, the four-guard rotation has given Jeremy Montgomery a more prominent role in which he could also flourish.

Loyola: A little bit of luck went a long way, but the Ramblers are coming back to reality during conference play. Then again, being sixth is still a surprising position for a team that was picked 10th in the preseason poll. Loyola lost a close game to Cleveland State in Cleveland on Thursday. The bench continues to outscore the starters and every game is going to be close. The loss to the Vikings was Loyola’s first close loss of the season. Now they have to go to Youngstown State to finish up the Ohio swing before playing crosstown rival UIC next Friday. Sophomore Walt Gibler is emerging as an effective scoring threat that goes to the line often. He’s seventh in the nation in fouls drawn.

Valparaiso: A New Year’s Eve victory over Milwaukee was a good way to end 2009, but 2010 hasn’t been as kind to the Crusaders. They have a sieve for a defense, probably because they gamble too often. (Valparaiso does rank 69th in steal percentage as a team.) Like I noted above, the Crusaders are Butler’s travel partner, so they might benefit from that, though it didn’t help last time as Green Bay won a tight game 64-58. Look out for sophomore guard Brandon Wood. He takes a lot of shots and makes them, a lethal combination. He also draws some fouls, making him a very effective scorer.

Milwaukee: Nothing like playing SIU-Edwardsville to make a Horizon League team feel better about itself. That’s exactly what the Panthers did on Tuesday to improve their record to 9-7. The game against Green Bay should be a big one and according to Pomeroy the Panthers are a slight favorite. If I had to handicap it though I’d give the edge to the Phoenix, even on the road. The Panthers don’t like giving up offensive rebounds, they rank 7th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. The guy here is James Eayrs, but the senior is having a bit of a problem with his three-point shot thus far this season.

Youngstown State: The reason the Penguins are ninth in the standings is because they got a home game against the tenth team. Youngstown State became the final Horizon League team to win a league game when it defeated UIC 76-67. Now maybe the Penguins can start a two-game winning streak when Loyola comes to town on Saturday. DeAndre Mays is the go-to-guy for the Youngstown.

UIC: An upset victory over Detroit on New Year’s gave the Flames their first conference victory, but two losses have followed. Jeremy Buttell absolutely went off with 31 points and 12 rebounds against Youngstown State, but it wasn’t enough to carry the Flames to victory. Now they’ll take on Cleveland State before the crosstown game versus Loyola on their home floor at the Pavilion on January 15. (A game that will be televised on ESPNU.) Robo Kreps is the go-to-guy most nights for UIC and when he’s on he can carry the team, but nights when he shoots 4-14, like he did against Youngstown State, make it difficult to win.